Центр оборонних стратегій

Russia’s war on Ukraine. 15.05.2024

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “North” on the Kharkiv direction, the enemy is trying to solidify its position on the current line and is regrouping. The Ukrainian Defense Forces are clearing the urban terrain of Vovchansk, maintaining artillery and UAV fire control over the enemy’s personnel and equipment concentrations, as well as potential positions.

In the “Khortytsia” OSG operational zone on the Kupyansk direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled an enemy attack and continue engaging in 8 combat encounters along the Lyman Pershyi – Synkivka, Kuzemivka – Stelmakhivka, Krokhmalne – Berestove, Kotlyarivka – Pishchane, and Karmazynivka – Novoyehorivka drections. On the Lyman direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 1 enemy attack along the Chervonopopivka – Novosadove direction, denying success to the enemy. On the Siversk direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces held back 5 Russian attacks along the Vesele – Rozdolivka, Berestove – Spirne, Mykolaivka – Spirne, Yakovlivka – Rozdolivka directions, the situation is under control. On the Kramatorsk direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces are improving tactical positions on certain sections. 

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone, on the Toretsk direction, the Ukrainain Defense Forces are repelling enemy attacks on the Zaytseve – Kurdyumivka axis. On the Pokrovsk direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 2 attacks on the Ocheretyne – Novooleksandrivka direction with ongoing combat engagement on the Solovyove – Sokil direction, and another attack is being repelled on the Semenivka – Novoselivka Persha direction. They have improved their tactical position in this area. In another sector, under heavy enemy fire, the Ukrainian Defense Forces are regrouping.  On the Kurakhove direction, an enemy attack towards Slavne – Novomykhailivka has been repelled. Separate “Tavriya” OSG units have successfully improved their tactical position. Since the beginning of the current day, the Russian aggressor has been most active on the Vremivka direction. the Ukrainian Defense Forces have repelled 8 attacks and continue to restrain 2 more enemy attacks on the Mykilske – Kostyantynivka, Solodke – Kostyantynivka, Zavіtne Bazhannia – Staromayorske, Volodyne – Staromayorske directions. On the Orikhiv direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 3 enemy attacks on the Novoprokopivka – Robotyne direction, with no success for the Russian occupiers.

General conclusion: 

  • The situation in Kharkiv Oblast is stabilizing as units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces conduct clearance operations in Vovchansk, striking Russian assault groups in the town.
  • Russian forces on the Kharkiv direction employ a new tactic. Assault groups, typically the size of platoons, engage with a stronghold before merging with other assault groups, increasing combat potential. This reduces losses during the approach to the target but slows the pace of advance.
  • The enemy is close to cutting off the road from Starytsya to Vovchansk near the automotive bridge over the Siversky Donets River south of the village.
  • The enemy failed to advance along the left bank of the Siversky Donets River south of Hatyshche toward Synelnykove and Tsehelne to bypass Vovchansk from the west and southwest. Therefore, they will likely have to assault the town directly from the direction of Hatyshche or attempt to break through via the aerodrome from Pletenivka.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

  • There were 141 combat engagements on various fronts.
  • On the Kharkiv direction, Russian forces have made some progress towards Lyptsi. They continue attempts to reach the outskirts of the village from Hlyboke and Lukyantsi and have attacked in eastern Lukyantsi. The enemy managed to gain a foothold on the outskirts of Buhruvatka, advancing through the forest north of the village. Forward enemy units entered Vovchansk from Hatyshche near Tereshkova Street but held only a few buildings there.
  • The Ukrainian Defense Forces regrouped near Lukyantsi, pushed the enemy out of Zelenyi, and halted their advance from Lukyantsi towards Lyptsi. Forward units of the 18th Motorized Rifle Division of the 11th Army Corps entered Lukyantsi but have been unable to advance southwest towards Lyptsi.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces have made some advances southeast of Stelmakhivka and continued their offensive in the areas of Synkivka, Vilshana, Lyman Pershyi, Petropavlivka, Krokhmalne, Berestove, Myasozharivka, Kovalivka, Novoyehorivka, Ploshchanka, Makiivka, and Chervonopopivka.
  • On the Lyman direction, Russian forces have attacked near Terny, Ivanivka, Dibrova, the Serebriansk Forest, and Bilohorivka.
  • On the Siversk direction, Russian forces continued their attacks near Verkhnyokamianske, Ivano-Dariivka, Spirne, Rozdolivka, and Vyimka.
  • On the Kramatorsk direction Russian forces made slight advances on the eastern outskirts of Kalynivka, in the “Kanal” neighborhood, in the dacha area north, and near Bohdanivka. They also attacked in the areas of “Novyi” neighborhood, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, and Bila Hora. “Shtorm” assault units are operating on the front lines of these attacks.
  • The Ukrainian Defense Forces have repositioned in the Chasiv Yar area to preserve personnel.
  • On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces advanced south of Umanske and reached the S051801 Novoselivka Persha – Umanske – Yasnobrodivka road. They also advanced south of Pervomaiske and further within the limits of Netaylove. Attacks were carried out in the areas of Ocheretyne, Novooleksandrivka, Yevhenivka, Kalynove, Arkhanhelske, Solovyove, Sokil, Umanske, Semenivka, and Yasnobrodivka.
  • The Ukrainian Defense Forces have repositioned in some areas.
  • On the Kurakhove direction, Russian forces continued minor advances in Krasnohorivka and carried out attacks near Heorhiivka, Novomykhailivka, and Vodyane.
  • On the Orikhiv direction, Russian forces advanced northwest of Verbove and continued their assault near Robotyne from the direction of Novoprokopivka.
  • On the Pryndniprovskiy direction, Russian forces made minor advances towards the Ostapa Vyshni Street area in Krynky, continued their offensive from the Oleshky Sands reserve to the southwest of Krynky, and near Kozachi Laheri.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
    • Mediterranean Sea: 3 ships, including 1 “Kalibr” sea launched cruise missile carrier. The total salvo is 8 cruise missiles.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

  • On the Chasiv Yar direction, combat operations are being conducted by the 98th Airborne Division, the 58th Separate SOF Battalion of the 1st Army Corps, and the 4th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Army Corps is engaged in combat near Ivanivske.

Possible operation situation developments:

  • In the near future, the enemy will launch an invasion from the territory of Kursk Oblast with the forces of the 128th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, supported by units of the 11th Army Corps, in the general direction towards Velyka Pysarivka.
  • Expect enemy capture of Synkivka soon, along with intense rear-guard actions north of Kupyansk’s eastern outskirts, for Stepova Novoselivka, Pishchane, and Berestove.
  • The adversary may attempt to bypass Chasiv Yar without directly assaulting the city, by operating from the south and southeast, while simultaneously forming a northern flank for the Toretsk operation.
  • The isolation or complete capture of Kostyantynivka will significantly impair the Defense Forces’ ability to maintain the frontline in the southern part of Donetsk Oblast, as it will disrupt the main logistical route along Highway N-20.
  • The “Center” Operational Grouping command is focused on executing the following operational plan: to establish conditions for the blockade and encirclement of the Kurakhove area or to create advantageous circumstances for launching an offensive operation to encircle “Tavriya” OSG’s defense in Toretsk area from the south.
  • The enemy’s “Vostok” Operational Grouping is gearing up for active operations on the southern flank of the Kurakhove-Vuhledar bulge of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in coordination with the left flank of the “Yug” Operational Grouping, which is currently attempting to break through towards Kurakhove through Hryhorivka and Paraskoviivka-Kostyantynivka along the Vovcha and Sukhi Yaly Rivers.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 15.05.24  

Personnel – almost 486,940 (+1510); 

Tanks 7,510 (+14); 

Armored combat vehicles – 14,508 (+48); 

Artillery systems – 12,538 (+23);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,070 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 798 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 16,955 (+48);

Aircraft – 351 (0);

Helicopters – 325 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 10,015 (+30);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,199 (+2);

Boats/ships – 27 (0).


  • According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian forces shelled 10 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 107 towns and villages and 150 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
  • On May 15th, Russian military attacked the infrastructure of Dnipro. Preliminary reports indicate two fatalities. There are wounded; their number, condition, and other circumstances are being clarified.
  • During the daytime on May 15, Russian forces launched several attacks on Mykolaiv, resulting in five civilians getting wounded. All injuries are reported to be of moderate severity.
  • Around 6 o’clock in the evening of May 15, Russian forces struck a densely populated residential area in Kharkiv. A five-story building was damaged. Currently, two injured individuals are known.
  • As of May 15, there are no plans for evacuating the population or specific groups of residents from Kharkiv. On the contrary, people from areas in the Oblast where active combat is ongoing are currently arriving in the city.
  • “Ukrzaliznytsia” reported that two wagon inspectors-maintenance workers were killed on May 15 due to enemy shelling targeting civilian railway infrastructure in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
  • On Wednesday, May 15, from 00:00 to 24:00, schedules for limiting industrial electricity consumption will be implemented. As of 09:00, emergency power cuts in Kyiv, Kyiv Oblast, Odesa, Donetsk, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts were cancelled.
  • As the enemy intensifies its offensive operations and casualties rise, more morgues are being established in temporarily occupied territories. These additional facilities are mainly being set up in Luhansk Oblast, utilizing buildings not originally designated for this purpose. Bodies are being transported there, including from northern regions of Kharkiv Oblast, to prevent distress among residents of Belgorod, the National Resistance Center of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry reports.

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