Russia’s war on Ukraine. 16.05.2024

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) “Kharkiv” on the Kharkiv direction, the UkrainianDefense Forces units repelled four enemy attacks on the Pylna – Lyptsi, Lukyantsi – Slobozhanske, Pylna – Slobozhanske, and Murom – Starytsya directions. Fighting continues on the Hlyboke – Lyptsi, Lukyantsi – Slobozhanske, Pylna – Slobozhanske, Murom – Starytsya, and Pletenivka – Vovchansk axes. The Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to carry out defensive and stabilization operations in Vovchansk.

In the “Khortytsia” OSG operational zone on the Kupyansk direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 20 enemy attacks. Fighting continues on the Kyslivka – Ivanivka, Kotlyarivka – Pishchane, Kuzemivka – Stelmakhivka, and Kovalivka – Novoyehorivka directions. In certain areas, due to intense enemy fire, the Ukrainain Defense Forces units withdrew to more advantageous positions. On the Lyman direction, the enemy attempted to breach the Ukrainian defenses twice. On the Siversk direction, the enemy made 5 attempts to assault the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces. Combat operations are ongoing in the areas of Rozdolivka and Spirne. On the Kramatorsk direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 5 attacks. Fighting continues in the areas of Novyi and Andriivka.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone, on the Pokrovsk direction, the enemy made 18 unsuccessful attempts to attack positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces. Fighting continues on the Ocheretyne – Novooleksandrivka, Ocheretyne – Kalynove, Arkhanhelske – Novooleksandrivka, and Solovyove – Sokol directions. The situation is tense. On the Kurakhove direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 5 enemy attacks. Fighting is ongoing in the areas of Vodyane and Pobieda, with the Ukrainian Defense Forces improving their tactical position around Pobieda. On the Vremivka direction, the enemy made 22 unsuccessful attempts to break through the Ukrainian defenses. On the Orikhiv direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 4 enemy attacks on the Novoprokopivka – Robotyne direction.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on the Prydniprovskiy direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces are defending positions on the left bank of the Dnipro River and repelled 5 enemy attacks.

General conclusion: 

• The pace of the enemy’s advance in the Kharkiv direction has slowed to a minimum, with the offensive effectively halted.
• The forward units of the 18th Motorized Rifle Division and the 7th Separate Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 11th Army Corps are combat ineffective after clashes with Ukrainian Defense Forces, with no reserves available to push the offensive.
• To strengthen efforts towards Lyptsi, the enemy could deploy units of the 30th and 41st Motorized Rifle Regiments of the 72nd Motorized Rifle Division and the 128th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 44th Army Corps. However, this would deplete their reserves, leaving them without resources for advancing on Vovchansk or for conducting raids in Sumy Oblast.
• The deployment of the 1st and 47th Tank Divisions of the 1st Tank Army from “Zapad” Operational Grouping on the Kharkiv direction has prevented the enemy from simultaneously advancing on the Kupyansk direction.
• The intensity of combat in the Synkivka area of the Kupyansk direction directly depends on the enemy command’s decision to reinforce efforts around Vovchansk. They may deploy the 138th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade’s motorized rifle battalion and 1-2 motorized rifle battalions of the 25th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 6^th Army, or the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 1st Tank Army.
• The command of the “Sever” Operational Grouping lacks the time to regroup other units from the Leningrad Military District (the 200th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade from the Kramatorsk direction, the 80th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, and the 61st Separate Marines Brigade from the Prydniprovskiy direction, which are engaged in intensive combat and cannot be quickly withdrawn) to the Kharkiv direction to successfully complete its operational tasks.
• In recent days, Russian offensive actions in the Avdiivka direction have significantly slowed down.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

• There were 140 combat engagements on various fronts.
• On the Kharkiv direction, enemy units of the 1st and 47th Tank Divisions of the 1st Tank Army are attempting to bypass Vovchansk from the west along the right bank of the Siversky Donets River, advancing in the Ohirtseve – Buhruvatka direction, and attacking the city from the Hatyshche and Pletenivka directions to penetrate deeply into the urban area and establish a foothold.
• In Buhruvatka, the enemy is trying to reach the area of the bridge over the Siversky Donets River near Prylipka and take control of the Starytsya – Vovchansk road segment. The enemy failed to advance on the left bank of the Siversky Donets River in the Hatyshche – Synelnykove direction and block the main logistical route of the “Kharkiv” OSG to Vovchansk in the Tsehelne area from the direction of Buhaiivka and Staryi Saltiv. The command of “Kharkiv” OSG retains the ability to maneuver forces and assets and to provide full logistical support to the tactical group in Vovchansk.
• “Kharkiv” OSG units held Zelene, stopping the forward units of the enemy’s 18th Motorized Rifle Division of the 11th Army Corps at the Hlyboke – Lukyantsi line. Both villages have been captured by the enemy.
• On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces continued assault operations in the areas of Synkivka, Petropavlivka, Pishchane, Kotlyarivka, Ivanivka, Berestove, Krokhmalne, Stelmakhivka, Myasozharivka, Novoyehorivka, and Tverdokhlibove.
• The Ukrainian Defense Forces units advanced to the northern outskirts of Kyslivka, but their attack was repelled by the 47th Tank Division of the 1st Tank Army.
• On the Lyman direction, Russian forces attacked near Makiivka, Novosadove, and Terny.
• On the Siversk direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces units advanced in the forest between Vesele and Spirne.
• Russian forces attacked in the areas of Verkhnyokamianske, Ivano-Dariivka, Spirne, and Rozdolivka.
• On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces advanced to Kalynivka from the southeast and entrenched themselves in this village, continuing the assault near Bohdanivka, in the “Novyi” neighborhood, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, Andriivka, Kurdyumivka, and Bila Hora.
• On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian troops have advanced in the areas of Netaylove, Nevelske, and south of Pervomaiske, continuing their offensive near Kalynove, Novooleksandrivka, Sokil, Yevhenivka, Solovyove, Novoselivka Persha, Novopokrovske, and Yasnobrodivka.
• On the Kurakhove direction, Russian forces have made slight advancements within the vicinity of Krasnohorivka, launched assaults on Novomykhailivka, progressed towards the southern outskirts of Paraskoviivka, and attacked in the areas of Heorhiivka, Vodyane, and Kostyantynivka.
• On the Vremivka direction, Russian forces made minor advances within the vicinity of Urozhaine and continued their offensive in the area near Staromayorske.
• On the Orikhiv direction, the 71st Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 58th Army seized a stronghold in the northern part of Robotyne. Russian forces advanced northwest of Verbove and south of Hulyaipole.
• At the time of the missile strike of the Ukrainian Defense Forces, 3 Su-35S, 10 Su-27, 2 MiG-31BM, and up to 5 Mi-8/17 helicopters were stationed at “Belbek” Airbase (in the Autonomous Republic of Crimea). Estimated enemy losses may include 1 MiG-31BM and 3 Su-27s (with significant damage from ATACMS missile strikes, including S-300 and S-400 SAM system launchers, as well as radar systems. (This information requires confirmation, though).
• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
  • Mediterranean Sea: 5 ships, including 1 “Kalibr” sea launched cruise missile carrier. The total salvo is 8 cruise missiles.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

• The 38th Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 35th Combined Arms Army is active near Hulyaipole. Units of the 392nd Motorized Rifle Regiment are engaged on the Zaporizhzhia direction. Meanwhile, units of the 70th and 291st Motorized Rifle Regiments of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division are operating east of Robotyne and on its southern outskirts, respectively.

Possible operation situation developments:

• In the near future, the enemy will launch an invasion from Kursk Oblast with the forces of the 128th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, supported by units of the 11th Army Corps, in the general direction towards Velyka Pysarivka.
• Expect enemy capture of Synkivka soon, along with intense rear-guard actions north of Kupyansk’s eastern outskirts, for Stepova Novoselivka, Pishchane, and Berestove.
• The adversary may attempt to bypass Chasiv Yar without directly assaulting the city, by operating from the south and southeast, while simultaneously forming a northern flank for the Toretsk operation.
• The isolation or complete capture of Kostyantynivka will significantly impair the Defense Forces’ ability to maintain the frontline in the southern part of Donetsk Oblast, as it will disrupt the main logistical route along Highway N-20.
• The “Center” Operational Grouping command is focused on executing the following operational plan: to establish conditions for the blockade and encirclement of the Kurakhove area or to create advantageous circumstances for launching an offensive operation to encircle “Tavriya” OSG’s defense in Toretsk area from the south.
• The enemy’s “Vostok” Operational Grouping is gearing up for active operations on the southern flank of the Kurakhove-Vuhledar bulge of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in coordination with the left flank of the “Yug” Operational Grouping, which is currently attempting to break through towards Kurakhove through Hryhorivka and Paraskoviivka-Kostyantynivka along the Vovcha and Sukhi Yaly Rivers.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 16.05.24  

Personnel – almost 488,460 (+1520); 

Tanks 7,529 (+19); 

Armored combat vehicles – 14,538 (+30); 

Artillery systems – 12,565 (+27);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,070 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 798 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 17,048 (+93);

Aircraft – 351 (0);

Helicopters – 325 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 10,028 (+13);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,200 (+1);

Boats/ships – 27 (0).

Humanitarian+general:

• According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian forces shelled 10 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 108 towns and villages and 183 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
• One person lost their life, and 13 others were injured in Kharkiv Oblast as a result of Russian shelling on May 15th. The next day, 2 people were killed and 4 sustained injuries in the region as a result of Russian missile and artillery attacks.
• Overall, since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, occupiers have killed at least 1,962 and injured at least 4,890 civilians in Donetsk region. These figures do not include casualties among the residents of Mariupol and Volnovakha.
• On the morning of May 16, the enemy struck the territory of a state-owned coal mining enterprise in Donetsk Oblast, injuring six miners.
• On May 16, the Russian forces launched an airstrike on the village of Vysoke in Kherson Oblast, resulting in the death of one person and injuring four others.
• Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko reported that in the northern part of Vovchansk, where active fighting is ongoing, occupiers are taking civilian residents captive. Additionally, the invaders shot and killed a local who attempted to escape on foot and refused to follow their orders.
• On May 16, Russian forces struck a village in the Vovchansk community of Kharkiv Oblast with cluster munitions. As a result, two medics, two drivers, and the head of the city military administration, Tamaz Hambarashvili, were injured. The occupiers attacked while volunteers and civilian emergency services were working in the village.
• As of May 16th, Ukraine is facing insufficient electricity generation capacity and imports to meet consumption demands. The situation overnight and in the morning proved to be more challenging than anticipated by energy specialists. Emergency power outages were implemented in a number of regions starting in the morning.
• Power outages that began on May 14 may continue until August-September. In winter, there will be a deficit in the energy system even with high outside temperatures, according to Yuriy Boyko, advisor to the Prime Minister of Ukraine and member of the supervisory board of NPC “Ukrenergo.”

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