Russia’s war on Ukraine. 22.05.2024

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational Group of Forces (OG) “Kharkiv” on the Kharkiv direction, Russian occupiers attempted 10 times to dislodge the Ukrainian Defense Forces units from their positions. Six enemy attempts to advance towards Lyptsi and an assault in the direction of Pletenivka-Vovchansk were repelled. The situation remains tense in the Starytsya area, where an attack from the direction of Novaya Tavolzhanka (Russia) was repelled. Fighting continues near Buhruvatka.

In the “Khortytsia” Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) operational zone on the Kupyansk direction, the number of enemy attacks has increased to 12. Combat engagements are ongoing in the areas of Synkivka, Ivanivka, and Novoyehorivka. Two enemy assaults were repelled on the Berestove direction. On the Lyman direction, an enemy attempt to advance in the area of Terny was suppressed. On the Siversk direction, 10 assaults were repelled in the areas of Bilohorivka, Vyimka, and Rozdolivka. Fighting continues near Bilohorivka, where the aggressor has not achieved success. On the Kramatorsk direction, a total of 10 attacks were repelled. Russian occupiers made five unsuccessful attempts to penetrate defenses near Klishchiivka, three near Andriivka, as well as in the areas of Novyi and Ivanivske.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone, on the Pokrovsk direction, remains the hottest point along the entire line of engagement. The number of enemy assaults has risen to 37. The enemy made 15 attempts to advance from Ocheretyne towards Novooleksandrivka, Kalynove, Prohres, and Yevhenivka, with heavy fighting ongoing. Russian occupiers continue their efforts to break through the defenses in the areas of Novoselivka Persha, Sieverne, and Netaylove. The Ukrainian Defense Forces are implementing measures to counter the enemy and stabilize the situation.  On the Kurakhove direction, Defense Forces units continue to suppress enemy activity, with the enemy unsuccessfully attacking twice.  On the Vremivka direction, the situation has not significantly changed; however, the aggressor has concentrated a considerable amount of firepower in the Staromayorske area and has increased the intensity of its fire.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on the Prydniprovskiy direction, the situation did not change.

General conclusion: 

• On the Vovchansk direction, the enemy failed to cross the Vovcha River along the entire line of engagement from the confluence of the Vovcha River into the Siversky Donets River to the village of Tyche.
• The enemy has not made any progress along the Hlyboke-Lukyantsi line towards Lyptsi, despite deploying an airborne assault regiment (its number is being identified).
• On the Vovchansk direction, the bulk of the enemy’s 6th Combined Arms Army has been deployed, bolstered by substantial elements from the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division and the 47th Tank Division of the 1st Tank Army. The appearance of Russian Airborne Forces units in this area signals increasing crisis within the grouping, which has failed to meet its combat objectives on schedule and has lost its offensive momentum.
• The command of the “Sever” Operational Grouping is trying to maximize the breadth of its offensive, aiming to force the Ukrainian Defense Forces command to commit as many of their available reserves as possible. The flip side of these actions is the ever-increasing need for troops within the “Sever” Operational Grouping itself.
• Russian forces persistently focus on advancing along the Bilohorivka-Spirne line, despite these efforts yielding no results and causing significant personnel and equipment losses.
• Exercises involving the forces and means for storing, transporting, and employing tactical nuclear weapons in the Southern Military District of the Russian Armed Forces are part of the Kremlin’s reflexive control campaign. The goal of this campaign is to prompt Western policymakers, who decide on aid to Ukraine and countering Russian aggression, to practice self-restraint.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

• There were 94 combat engagements on various fronts.
• On the Kharkiv direction, the command of the enemy’s “Sever” Operational Grouping is launching the key attack on the Vovchansk direction and is determined to intensify efforts there at all costs. Advanced enemy units have reached the center of Vovchansk and are expanding their advance along the Ohirtseve-Buhruvatka sector to the west. They are trying to bypass the city from the east, advancing along the Vovcha River towards Tyche-Zybyne, successfully progressing from the old aerodrome into the northeastern part of Vovchansk. To strengthen their assault, the enemy’s command has deployed at least 2 motorized rifle regiments into the combat zone, supporting the sectors of advance of the 25th and 138th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 6th Combined Arms Army.
• Fierce close-quarters combat continues in the advance zone of the enemy’s 18th Motorized Rifle Division of the 11th Army Corps with the enemy attempting to break through towards Lyptsi-Slobodzhanke, operating both from the direction of Hlyboke and along the northern bank of the Lypets River, but unable to break through to Lyptsi. Assault units of the 7th Separate Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 11th Army Corps of the enemy have suffered significant losses in previous battles, losing combat capability and being replaced by others.
• On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces are consolidating their positions along wooded terrain east of Stelmakhivka, continuing their offensive actions in the areas of Synkivka, Ivanivka, Berestove, and Stelmakhivka.
• On the Lyman direction, Russian forces have advanced southeast of Makiivka, continuing their offensive actions near Dibrova, Terny, Hryhorivka, and Bilohorivka.
• On the Siversk direction, enemy units from the 106th Airborne Division continued to attack and advance north of Vesele. Russian forces attacked in the areas of Rozdolivka and Vyimka.
• On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces advanced in the southern and central parts of Klishchiivka, improved their positions in the area of the Stupky-Holubivsky-2 reserve, continued to attack Chasiv Yar, particularly the “Kanal” neighborhood, and pressed near Ivanivske and Andriivka.
• On the Pokrovsk direction, the 9th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the enemy’s 1st Army Corps advanced in the western part of Netaylove. Battles raged in the areas of Kalynove, Novooleksandrivka, Sokil, Prohres, Yevhenivka, Ocheretyne, Solovyove, Novoselivka Persha, Umanske, Sieverne, Yasnobrodivka, and Nevelske.
• On the Kurakhove direction, Russian forces advanced southwest of Novomykhailivka, east of Paraskoviivka, and 400 meters in the southwestern part of Krasnohorivka, launching attacks near Heorhiivka, Krasnohorivka, and Pobieda.
• On the Prydniprovskiy direction, positional battles continued. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled Russian attacks near Krynky, while fighting for control over the islands in the Dnipro Delta persisted.
• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
  • Azov Sea: 3 ships.
  • Black Sea: 1 ship.
  • Mediterranean Sea: 2 ships, including 2 “Kalibr” sea launched cruise missile carriers. The total salvo is 16 cruise missiles.

Escalation indicators:

• The missile forces of the Southern Military District of the Russian Armed Forces have begun the first stage of exercises with forces and means that use non-strategic (tactical) nuclear weapons.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

• Units of the 272nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 47th Tank Division, the 1st Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division, and several others have been identified in the Vovchansk area. Forces and assets of the 11th Army Corps, including the tank battalion of the 11th Tank Regiment of the 18th Motorized Rifle Division, are also operating here.
• The “Belgorod” and “Kursk” Operational Groupings have up to half of the enemy’s 44th Army Corps (two regiments and one brigade) in reserve.
• The 83rd Separate Air Assault Brigade is engaged in combat operations in the Andriivka-Kurdyumivka area. Foreign mercenaries from the Russian “African Corps” have been spotted on the Bakhmut direction.
• The 33rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 20th Combined Arms Army is operating in Paraskoviivka. The 87th Separate Rifle Regiment (formerly the 119th Regiment of the 1st Army Corps) and units of the 14th Separate SOF Brigade are active near Vuhledar.

Possible operation situation developments:

• On the Sumy direction, the enemy grouping is stationed in concentration areas. The 128th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 44th Army Corps is concentrating in the Graivoron area (information is being verified). Sudzha – Sumy and Graivoron – Velyka Pysarivka could be the likely directions of its actions.
• The enemy will continue their attempts to penetrate the urban area of Vovchansk and advance west of the city along both banks of the Siversky Donets River, particularly in the Buhruvatka area.
• The redeployment of enemy troops from the areas of Novaya Tavolzhanka and Arkhangelskoye (territory of the Russian Federation) to Ohirtseve and Buhruvatka will indicate the beginning of the crossing of the Siversky Donets River towards Prilipka and further towards Synelnykove and Tsehelnye, with the aim of bypassing the tactical group of the Ukrainian Defense Forces defending Vovchansk.
• The “Center” Operational Grouping command is focused on executing the following operational plan: to establish conditions for the blockade and encirclement of the Kurakhove area or to create advantageous circumstances for launching an offensive operation to encircle “Tavriya” OSG’s defense in Toretsk area from the south.
• The enemy’s “Vostok” Operational Grouping is gearing up for active operations on the southern flank of the Kurakhove-Vuhledar bulge of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in coordination with the left flank of the “Yug” Operational Grouping, which is currently attempting to break through towards Kurakhove through Hryhorivka and Paraskoviivka-Kostyantynivka along the Vovcha and Sukhi Yaly Rivers.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 22.05.24  

Personnel – almost 496,370 (+1300); 

Tanks 7,611 (+6); 

Armored combat vehicles – 14,721 (+22); 

Artillery systems – 12,820 (+41);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,077 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 812 (+1);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 17,442 (+59);

Aircraft – 354 (0);

Helicopters – 326 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 10,346 (+56);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,208 (+1);

Boats/ships – 28 (0).

Humanitarian+general:

• According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian forces shelled 10 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 104 towns and villages and 136 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
• During the night of May 22nd, Russian forces launched an attack with 24 Shahed-131/136 drones, all of which were successfully destroyed.
• Overnight on May 22, Russian forces targeted energy infrastructure in Shostka and Konotop in Sumy Oblast using “Shahed” drones. Sumy was blacked out, with public transport suspended and water supply disrupted throughout the city. The attack also affected 5 districts in the Oblast.
• On the morning of May 22nd, Russian forces shelled the city center of Chuhuiv in Kharkiv Oblast, resulting in injuries to 8 people.
• On May 22nd, Russian forces struck residential buildings in the Shevchenkivskyi district of Kharkiv using UMPB D-30 modified guided aerial bombs, resulting in injuries to twelve people.
• At approximately 11:00 on May 22nd, in the town of Vovchansk, an enemy FPV drone hit the rooftop of a law enforcement vehicle. This incident occurred while officers were engaged in evacuation operations. A 41-year-old policeman lost his life, and a 27-year-old officer sustained injuries.
• Two people were killed and two others, including a child, were injured as a result of a Russian missile strike on the outskirts of Pokrovsk, Donetsk Oblast, on May 21st at 23:00.
• Ukrainian law enforcement officials have identified 357 Russian military personnel and representatives of the occupying authorities suspected of committing war crimes. Of these, 83 individuals have already been convicted, Prosecutor General Andriy Kostin said.

Centre for Defence Strategies (CDS) is a Ukrainian security think tank. We operate since 2020.

We publish this brief daily. If you would like to subscribe, please send us an email at cds.dailybrief@gmail.com

The CDC Daily Brief is produced with the support of the Kyiv School of Economics https://kse.ua/

Please note, that we subscribe only verified persons and can decline or cancel the subscription at our own discretion

We are an independent, non-government, non-partisan, and non-profit organization. More at www.defence.org.ua

Our Twitter (in English) – https://twitter.com/defence_centre

Our Facebook (in Ukrainian) – https://www.facebook.com/cds.UA

Our brief is for information only and we verify our information to the best possible extent