Russia’s war on Ukraine. 29.05.2024

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational Group of Forces (OG) “Kharkiv” on the Kharkiv direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 4 Russian assaults in the areas of Starytsya and Vovchansk. The situation is tense but controlled by Ukrainian forces, with ongoing fighting in the Vovchansk area.

In the “Khortytsia” Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) operational zone on the Kupyansk direction, there were 19 engagements. Ukrainian Defense Forces successfully repelled 16 enemy attacks in the areas of Synkivka, Stepova Novoselivka, Druzhelyubivka, Novoyehorivka, and Nevske. Fighting continues in the areas of Petropavlivka and Nevske.  On the Lyman direction, there were 16 engagements. Russian occupiers’ attempts to advance in the areas of Terny, Torske, and the Serebriansk Forest were unsuccessful. Despite enemy activity, Ukrainian forces are taking measures to reinforce the frontline defenses. On the Siversk direction, the enemy attacked the positions of Ukrainian Defense Forces 8 times near Bilohorivka, attempting to break into the defensive lines of Ukrainian units. The situation remains tense. On the Kramatorsk direction, the aggressor made 6 unsuccessful attempts to attack units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in the areas of Hryhorivka, Klishchiivka, and Andriivka.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone, the enemy was intensively attacking on the Pokrovsk direction, conducting 25 assaults and attempting to exert significant fire control efforts along almost the entire line of contact. In some areas, the enemy achieved partial success. Ukrainian Defense Forces are taking measures to stabilize the situation and prevent enemy advances. On the Kurakhove direction, there were 9 engagements. The invaders are attempting to advance in the areas of Krasnohorivka, Kostyantynivka, and Vodyane. On the Vremivka direction, Russian forces continue their efforts to displace Ukrainian defenders from their positions. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 6 attacks in the area of Staromayorske. On the Orikhiv direction, there were 3 engagements. Russian occupiers failed to push Ukrainian Defense Forces units from Mala Tokmachka.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on the Prydniprovskiy direction, the occupiers persist in their attempts to dislodge Ukrainian Defense Forces from positions on the left bank of the Dnipro River. 10 engagements did not bring significant changes to the situation in this sector.

General conclusion: 

• In recent days, Russian forces have decreased the pace of their offensive in the northern Kharkiv Oblast while increasing it in the Pokrovsk area.
• Throughout the day, the enemy attacked with forces up to a company size in areas east of Chasiv Yar, east of Novopokrovske, near Novomykhailivka, and in Staromayorske. These attacks may be testing the readiness of Ukraine’s defense system on the Kramatorsk, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Vremivka directions, between which the enemy’s command on the Southwestern Theater of Operations is deciding the direction of the main summer offensive.
• The offensive in Kharkiv Oblast was an attempt to exploit the lack of resources in the Ukrainian Defense Forces, including personnel and ammunition.
• Russian forces have reduced the number of attacks in the Robotyne-Verbove area due to issues with UAV strike coverage, camouflage, and a lack of electronic warfare equipment.
• The distance from the forward positions of Russian forces near Lukyantsi to the northeastern outskirts of Kharkiv (Basseina Street area) is up to 20 km. The enemy has gained the ability to carry out long-range MRLS strikes on the outskirts of the city.
• Designating the Kharkiv operational direction as the main thrust of the enemy’s summer offensive campaign will require a strategic regrouping of forces across the entire theater of operations.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

• There were 110 combat engagements on various fronts.
• On the Kharkiv direction, forward units of the 18th Motorized Rifle Division of the 11th Army Corps have transitioned to active defense along the Hlyboke-Lukyantsi line, regrouping forces and resources in the tactical zone to resume offensive operations towards Lyptsi-Slobozhanske and Zelene-Neskuchne. The command of the “Sever” Operational Grouping is conducting limited assault and offensive actions in the Lukyantsi-Lyptsi and Hlyboke-Lyptsi directions to improve the tactical positions of their forward units.
• Forward units of the 25th and 138th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 6th Combined Arms Army, the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division, and the 47th Tank Division of the 1st Tank Army are entrenching in the Buhruvatka area and continuing attempts to advance westward towards Hatyshche-Synelnykove and northeast and east of the city towards Tykhe from the old airfield north of the city. In Vovchansk, rifle battles continue. The enemy is trying to hold positions near the Central District Hospital and City Lyceum No. 1. In the central part of the city, the enemy was pushed back to Korolenko Street.
• The enemy failed to cross the Vovcha River at any point.
• On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces advanced 400 meters south of Berestove and 1 kilometer towards Myasozharivka. Units of the 47th Tank Division of the 1st Tank Army are advancing towards Stepova Novoselivka.
• Battles continued near Synkivka, Petropavlivka, Novoselivka, Ivanivka, Kyslivka, Tverdokhlibove, Druzhelyubivka, Hrekivka, and Novoyehorivka.
• On the Lyman direction, fighting continued near Nevske, Terny, Torske, the Serebriansk Forest area, and Dibrova.
• On the Siversk Direction, Russian forces continued assaults in the areas of Verkhniokamyanka, Spirne, and Vyimka.
• On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces continued ground attacks east of Chasiv Yar but made no progress. The enemy captured the eastern part of Kalynivka and advanced 720 meters into the “Kanal” neighborhood. They also attacked near Hryhorivka, Klishchiivka, and Andriivka.
• On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces made minor advances in the fields east of Novopokrovske during an assault with up to a platoon but were repelled by Ukrainian Defense Forces units. The enemy advanced 750 meters north of Umanske, 1 kilometer south and southeast of Netaylove, and approached the Karlivka Reservoir. They began fighting for Karlivka and continued their offensive in the areas of Novooleksandrivka, Prohres, Novoselivka Persha, Kalynove, Ocheretyne, Sokol, Yasnobrodivka, and Nevelske.
• On the Kurakhove direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled a company-sized attack near Novomykhailivka.
• Russian forces advanced south of Novomykhailivka and approximately 200 meters into Paraskoviivka, continuing attacks near Krasnohorivka, Kostyantynivka, and Vodyane.
• On the Vremivka direction, the enemy attacked with up to a company south of Velyka Novosilka, advanced into the center of Staromayorske, and attacked in Urozhaine.
• On the Orikhiv direction, positional battles continued near Robotyne, Mala Tokmachka, and Mali Shcherbaky.
• On the Prydniprovskiy direction, positional battles continued near Krynky.
• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
  • Azov Sea: 1 ship.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

• Units of the 76th Air Assault Division of the Russian Airborne Forces have been spotted near Krynky. Additionally, in the Kherson direction, elements of the 80th Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 14th Army Corps are also active.

Escalation indicators:

• The enemy is increasing the number of its troops to 50,000-75,000 along the state border on the Siversk direction.

Possible operation situation developments:

• The enemy’s “Sever” Operational Grouping command will attempt to intensify efforts on the Vovchansk direction. This may involve deploying 2-3 motorized rifle battalions and a tank battalion from the 6th Combined Arms Army towards the villages of Tykhe and Vovchanski Khutory, although they have up to 4 Territorial Defense battalions in reserve. The possibility of crossing the Vovcha River towards Hatyshche-Synelnykove west of Vovchansk cannot be ruled out, aiming to cut off the main logistics route of the “Kharkiv” OG tactical group defending Vovchansk in the Synelnykove-Tsehelne-Vilcha-Lyman area.
• Another potential development could be the enemy’s attempt to connect their footholds in the Vovchansk direction with those in the Lyptsi direction. To achieve this, the enemy might launch offensive operations towards Buhruvatka-Starytsya in the directions of Izbytske and Ternova, deploying additional motorized rifle and tank battalions on the western bank of the Siversky Donets River.
• The deployment of reserves from the 44th Army Corps in the Lyptsi area (one battalion each from the 30th and 41st Motorized Rifle Regiments of the 72nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 44th Army Corps) cannot be excluded.
• Despite the slowed pace of advancement in the Vovchansk direction, there are no signs of the enemy transitioning to defense on this direction, unlike on the Lyptsi direction.
• The “Center” Operational Grouping command is focused on executing the following operational plan: to establish conditions for the blockade and encirclement of the Kurakhove area or to create advantageous circumstances for launching an offensive operation to encircle “Tavriya” OSG’s defense in Toretsk area from the south.
• The Russian military command may redeploy the 7th and 76th Air Assault Divisions from the Robotyne area to the Luhansk, Kherson Oblasts in Ukraine or Kursk Oblast in Russia.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 29.05.24  

Personnel – almost 505,100 (+1300); 

Tanks 7,700 (+8); 

Armored combat vehicles – 14,891 (+33); 

Artillery systems – 13,066 (+37);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,087 (+2);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 815 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 17,796 (+56);

Aircraft – 357 (0);

Helicopters – 326 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 10,510 (+28);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,222 (0);

Boats/ships – 28 (0).

Humanitarian+general:

• According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian forces shelled 12 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 89 towns and villages and 171 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
• During the night of May 29, Russian occupiers attacked Ukraine with 14 Shahed-131/136 combat drones. Thirteen of these drones were successfully destroyed.
• On the evening of May 28, a resident of the Semenivka community in Chernihiv Oblast sustained fatal injuries in his own home due to a Russian mortar shelling.
• On May 29, a missile strike from the territory of the Russian Federation hit the Krasnopillya community in Sumy Oblast. Preliminary reports indicate that two people were killed and three others were injured.
• On the morning of May 29, Russian forces shelled the city of Nikopol in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast with heavy artillery. As a result, two men were killed, and a man and a woman were injured. The shelling also damaged a library, a store, and a power line.
• Around 2 PM on May 29, the Russian army shelled the city of Lyman. The epicenter of the attack was a residential neighborhood. Eight civilians were injured and suffered concussions.
• The initial batch of Russian prisoners of war has been admitted to the newly established detention camp “Center-3.” With a significant influx of Russian surrenders and the Russian side’s obstruction of exchanges, Ukraine is compelled to create additional facilities for detaining prisoners of war.

Centre for Defence Strategies (CDS) is a Ukrainian security think tank. We operate since 2020.

We publish this brief daily. If you would like to subscribe, please send us an email at cds.dailybrief@gmail.com

The CDC Daily Brief is produced with the support of the Kyiv School of Economics https://kse.ua/

Please note, that we subscribe only verified persons and can decline or cancel the subscription at our own discretion

We are an independent, non-government, non-partisan, and non-profit organization. More at www.defence.org.ua

Our Twitter (in English) – https://twitter.com/defence_centre

Our Facebook (in Ukrainian) – https://www.facebook.com/cds.UA

Our brief is for information only and we verify our information to the best possible extent