Центр оборонних стратегій

Russia’s war on Ukraine. 30.05.2024

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational Group of Forces (OG) “Kharkiv” there were 7 engagements with Russian forces on the Kharkiv direction. Four attacks were repelled near the village of Lyptsi and the town of Vovchansk. Combat operations are ongoing near Starytsya.

In the “Khortytsia” Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) operational zone on the Kupyansk direction, the enemy attempted 13 times to dislodge Ukrainian Defense Forces units from their positions. Fighting took place near Synkivka, Petropavlivka, Novoyehorivka, Druzhelyubivka, Stepova Novoselivka, Andriivka, and Nevske. Battles continue in 4 locations near Petropavlivka, Stepova Novoselivka, Druzhelyubivka, and Nevske. On the Lyman direction, 5 enemy attempts to advance were repelled in the areas of Terny, Torske, and the Serebriansk Forest. Fighting continues near Terny. The enemy has not achieved any success.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone, the enemy was intensively attacking on the Pokrovsk direction, Russian occupiers continued attempts to breach Ukrainian defenses from the area of Ocheretyne, with 9 attacks repelled. Fighting continues near Sokil, Nevelske, and Novoselivka Persha.

General conclusion: 

  • Russian forces are amassing personnel near Hlyboke, employing light vehicles such as motorcycles and ATVs to quickly traverse the distance from their attack launch positions to the front lines of the Ukrainian Defense Forces.
  • There is a high intensity of shelling on the Pokrovsk direction, particularly in the areas of Novoselivka Persha, Novooleksandrivka, Sokol, Prohres, Yasnobrodivka, and Nevelske.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

  • There were 102 combat engagements on various fronts.
  • On the Kharkiv direction, Russian forces made slight advances near Vovchansk, within the southeastern part of Hlyboke, the northeastern part of Starytsya, towards Lyptsi, and assaulted Zelene and Synelnykove.
  • The 82nd Separate Air Assault Brigade of the Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked in the Vovchansk area.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces advanced near Berestove and east of Andriivka.
  • Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled Russian assaults in the areas of Synkivka, Petropavlivka, Stepova Novoselivka, Novoyehorivka, Druzhelyubivka, and Nevske. The enemy group attacking from Novovodyane was also destroyed.
  • On the Lyman direction, Russian forces advanced east of Torske.
  • Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled Russian assaults in the areas of Terny, Torske, Serebriansk Forest, and Bilohorivka.
  • On the Siversk Direction, Russian forces attacked in the Vyimka area.
  • On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces advanced south of Ivanivske and within the “Kanal” neighborhood. Elements of the 98th Airborne Division are securing positions on two fronts in the southern and eastern outskirts of the “Novyi” neighborhood. The 200th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 14th Army Corps is pushing Ukrainian Defense Forces from their positions in the wooded areas north of Kalynivka. South of Chasiv Yar, the enemy continued assaults along the T0504 road, but Ukrainian Defense Forces prevented them from establishing a new bridgehead beyond the Siversky Donets-Donbas canal.
  • On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces advanced southeast of Novopokrovske, in the Umanske area, and in the wooded areas near the village. They attacked along the Sokol- Umanske -Karlivka line, engaging in battles for the wooded areas near the Karlivka Reservoir. West of Ocheretyne, the enemy advanced along the railway embankment towards Sokil, assaulting Novoprokopivka, but repeatedly faced strong Ukrainian artillery and APC fire. The enemy secured positions in Umanske, attempting to press north and west of the village.
  • On the Kurakhove direction, Russian forces continued offensive operations near and around Krasnohorivka, Paraskoviivka, Kostyantynivka, and Vodyane.
  • The 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade of the Ukrainian Defense Forces attacked in Krasnohorivka, surrounding part of the enemy forces.
  • On the Vremivka direction, The 394th Motorized Rifle Regiment and the 218th Tank Regiment of the 127th Motorized Rifle Division of the 5th Combined Arms Army, advanced into the central part of Staromayorske and within Urozhaine.
  • On the Orikhiv direction, Russian forces continued their offensive near Robotyne, Verbove, Mali Shcherbaky, and Mala Tokmachka.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
    • Azov Sea: 1 ship.
    • Mediterranean Sea: 2 ships including 1 cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 8 cruise missiles.   

Changes in the enemy disposition:

  • Units of the 47th Tank Division of the 1st Tank Army are engaged in combat near Stepova Novoselivka.
  • The paramilitary “Sever-V” brigade and the 13th BARS detachment continue operations near Chasiv Yar.
  • The 41st Combined Arms Army and the 24th Separate SOF Brigade are engaged in combat on the Pokrovsk direction.

Escalation indicators:

  • High intensity of shelling on the Pokrovsk direction.

Possible operation situation developments:

  • The enemy’s “Sever” Operational Grouping command will attempt to intensify efforts on the Vovchansk direction. This may involve deploying 2-3 motorized rifle battalions and a tank battalion from the 6th Combined Arms Army towards the villages of Tykhe and Vovchanski Khutory, although they have up to 4 Territorial Defense battalions in reserve. The possibility of crossing the Vovcha River towards Hatyshche-Synelnykove west of Vovchansk cannot be ruled out, aiming to cut off the main logistics route of the “Kharkiv” OG tactical group defending Vovchansk in the Synelnykove-Tsehelne-Vilcha-Lyman area.
  • Another potential development could be the enemy’s attempt to connect their footholds in the Vovchansk direction with those in the Lyptsi direction. To accomplish this, they might initiate offensive operations toward Buhruvatka-Starytsya, targeting Izbytske and Ternova. This would involve deploying additional motorized rifle and tank battalions on the western bank of the Siversky Donets River.
  • The deployment of reserves from the 44th Army Corps in the Lyptsi area (one battalion each from the 30th and 41st Motorized Rifle Regiments of the 72nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 44th Army Corps) cannot be excluded.
  • Despite the slowed pace of advancement in the Vovchansk direction, there are no signs of the enemy transitioning to defense on this direction, unlike on the Lyptsi direction.
  • The “Center” Operational Grouping command is focused on executing the following operational plan: to establish conditions for the blockade and encirclement of the Kurakhove area or to create advantageous circumstances for launching an offensive operation to encircle “Tavriya” OSG’s defense in Toretsk area from the south.
  • The Russian military command may redeploy the 7th and 76th Air Assault Divisions from the Robotyne area to the Luhansk, Kherson Oblasts in Ukraine or Kursk Oblast in Russia.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 30.05.24  

Personnel – almost 506,260 (+1160); 

Tanks 7,710 (+10); 

Armored combat vehicles – 14,913 (+22); 

Artillery systems – 13,101 (+35);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,088 (+1);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 815 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 17,849 (+53);

Aircraft – 357 (0);

Helicopters – 326 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 10,532 (+22);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,222 (0);

Boats/ships – 28 (0).


  • As of the morning of May 30, 2024, according to official information from juvenile prosecutors, 550 children in Ukraine have died and over 1,354 have been injured to varying degrees of severity due to the Russian full-scale aggression.
  • According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian forces shelled 11 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 86 towns and villages and 91 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
  • On the night of May 30, 2024, Russian forces launched a missile and air strike on military targets and critical infrastructure in Ukraine. They used eight S-300/S-400 missiles on Kharkiv Oblast, 11 Kh-101/Kh-555 cruise missiles from Tu-95 MS strategic bombers, and 32 Shahed-131/136 attack drones. Seven Kh-101/Kh-555 cruise missiles and 32 Shahed-131/136 attack drones were shot down in the Khmelnytskyi, Dnipropetrovsk, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, Zaporizhzhia, Odesa, Kherson, Kyiv, and Vinnytsia Oblasts.
  • Over the past day, May 29, Russian forces carried out 2,103 shelling attacks on Donetsk Oblast. Hits were recorded in nine towns and villages, damaging 21 civilian objects. Eight residents of Donetsk Oblast sustained injuries.
  • Over the past day, Russian forces shelled 16 towns and villages in Kherson Oblast, resulting in injuries to six civilians.
  • During the night, a missile attack in Khmelnytskyi Oblast damaged energy infrastructure facilities, leaving over 10,000 consumers without power. As of this morning, about 500 consumers remain without power, and emergency repair work is ongoing, reports NEC Ukrenergo.
  • On the evening of May 30, two men were injured due to a Russian airstrike on the village of Ruska Lozova in Kharkiv Oblast. At least three private houses were significantly damaged.
  • Currently, there are 31 Ukrainian journalists known to have been kidnapped by the enemy and held captive in the Russian Federation, reported Tetiana Katrychenko, Executive Director of the NGO Media Initiative for Human Rights.
  • Starting September 1, schools in temporarily occupied territories will introduce the subject “Fundamentals of Security and Homeland Defense.” Children will be taught tactical medicine and military training, including working with drones, grenades, and firearms, according to the National Resistance Center of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense.

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