Центр оборонних стратегій

Russia’s war on Ukraine. 31.05.2024

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational Group of Forces (OG) “Kharkiv” on the Kharkiv direction, there were 2 engagements. The enemy’s attempt to advance near Starytsya was thwarted by decisive actions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces.

In the “Khortytsia” Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) operational zone on the Kupyansk direction, the enemy tried 9 times to dislodge units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces from their positions. 6 Russian assaults were repelled in the areas of Synkivka, Petropavlivka, Stepova Novoselivka, Myasozharivka, and Druzhelyubivka. Fighting continues near Druzhelyubivka, Andriivka, and Ivanivka. On the Lyman direction, an enemy attempt to attack positions in the Serebriansk Forest was repelled. On the Siversk direction, the number of enemy attacks increased to 11, with the Ukrainian Defense Forces stopping 8 assaults in the areas of Bilohorivka and Rozdolivka. On the Kramatorsk direction, there were 9 engagements, with 8 enemy attacks repelled near Kalynivka, Bilohorivka, Klishchiivka, Andriivka, and Chasiv Yar. The situation is tense, and the Ukrainian Defense Forces are actively working to reinforce defensive stability.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone, on the Toretsk direction, a Russian attack from Zaitseve towards Kurdyumivka was stopped. On the Pokrovsk direction, the Russian invaders made 21 attempts to push the Ukrainian Defense Forces from their positions. 9 attacks from the Ocheretyne area failed, and eight assaults were repelled near Sokil, Novoselivka Persha, Yasnobrodivka, and Umanske. Fighting continues near Sokil and Ocheretyne. On the Kurakhove direction, the situation remains tense, with the Ukrainian Defense Forces thwarting 21 enemy attacks and successfully repelling 17 assaults near Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Novomykhailivka, and Vodyane. The enemy continues trying to breach the “Tavriya” OSG defensive lines near Krasnohorivka. On the Vremivka direction, there were 5 engagements, with 4 enemy assaults faltering near Urozhaine and Staromayorske. On the Orikhiv direction, the number of enemy assault attempts increased to 5, with 2 attacks repelled near Mala Tokmachka. Fighting continues in the areas of Mali Shcherbaky and Novoandriivka. The situation is tense, and the Ukrainian Defense Forces are implementing measures to stabilize the situation and prevent Russian advances into Ukrainian territory.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on the Prydniprovskiy direction, 8 enemy attempts to push Ukrainian Defense Forces units from their positions on the left bank of the Dnipro River near Krynky were repelled.

General conclusion: 

  • The command of the enemy’s “Sever (North)” Operational Grouping is regrouping its forward units, aiming to reinforce the push towards Vovchansk, where their advance has stalled. Any progress will require them to deploy more troops and equipment.
  • Russian forces are moving additional troops and equipment from other parts of the frontline and training grounds on the Kharkiv direction to Strilecha, Lyptsi, and Vovchansk.
  • The enemy is stepping up assault operations on the Kurakhove and Siversk directions.
  • Launching operations in the Graivoron-Pysarivka direction will further drain the heavily engaged “Sever” Operational Grouping forces, which are also forming a “sanitary zone” along the border.
  • After units from the 239th Tank Regiment and 228th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 90th Tank Division, along with forward battalions from the 1st Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps captured Netaylove and Umanske the command of the “Tsentr (Center)” Operational Grouping is reinforcing the flanks of its strike group operating on the Ocheretyne-Novooleksandrivka direction.
  • Developments on the Kramatorsk and Pokrovsk directions indicate that the command of the enemy’s “Yug (South)” Operational Grouping is setting the stage for a future encirclement of the Toretsk defense area held by the “Tavriya” OSG.
  • Sabotage and reconnaissance activities have increased near Ukrainian state border in Sumy Oblast.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

  • There were 100 combat engagements on various fronts.
  • On the Kharkiv direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces control 70% of Vovchansk. The National Police Assault Brigade “Lyut” is pushing the occupiers out of the city center.
  • Enemy advance units on the Buhruvatka – Starytsya direction are attempting to expand along the frontline the territory they captured on the western bank of the Siversky Donets River. Units of the 18th Motorized Rifle Division, 11th Army Corps, suffered significant losses in previous battles on the Lyptsi direction and currently require replenishment and full logistical support.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces conducted assaults in the areas of Petropavlivka, Synkivka, Ivanivka, Stepova Novoselivka, Myasozharivka, Andriivka, Druzhelyubivka, and Nevske.
  • The Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked in the area of Ivanivka.
  • On the Lyman direction, the 95th Separate Air Assault Brigade of the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled enemy attacks in the Serebriansk Forest. The enemy attacked near Terny, Torske, Dibrova, Hryhorivka, and Bilohorivka.
  • On the Siversk Direction, Russian forces attacked in the areas of Rozdolivka and Vyimka.
  • On the Kramatorsk direction, the 98th Airborne Division, 11th Separate Air Assault Brigade, 102nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Combined Arms Army, advanced to the southern “Kanal” neighborhood in Chasiv Yar while attempting to advance in the Bohdanivka – Kalynivka direction. This tactical group is supported by the 200th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 14th Army Corps from the north (Klishchiivka area) and the 6th Motorized Rifle Division of the 3rd Army Corps from the south. The enemy managed to reach the intersection of the Kostyantynivka – Bakhmut road and the Siversky Donets – Donbas canal, as well as the eastern outskirts of Kalynivka.
  • On the Pokrovsk direction, the enemy is attempting to reach the Sokil – Novopokrovske line with assault units from the 15th and 55th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades. Further south, the 114th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade is advancing towards Semenivka – Novoselivka Persha, supported by elements of the 74th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade. Advanced units of the 35th and 132nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades of the enemy changed their main attack direction from Arkhanhelske – Kalynove to Keramik – Oleksandropil, closer to the Kostyantynivka – Yasynuvata road, but attacks towards Arkhanhelske – Kalynove continue.
  • On the Kurakhove direction, Russian forces recently advanced to the forest belt northwest of Solodke and continued offensive actions in the areas of Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Kostyantynivka, and Paraskoviivka.
  • The Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked near Volodymyrivka.
  • On the Vremivka direction, Russian forces advanced in the Staromayorske area. Units of the 5th Separate Tank Brigade of the 36th Army attacked the southern outskirts of Urozhaine.
  • On the Orikhiv direction, positional battles occurred near Robotyne, Verbove, Malaya Tokmachka, Mali Shcherbaky, and Novoandriivka.
  • On the Prydniprovskiy direction, Russian forces made minor advances north of Dnipryany and conducted assaults in the areas of Krynky, the “Oleshkivski Pisky” National Nature Park, and near Nestryha Island in the Dnipro Delta.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
    • Azov Sea: 2 ships.
    • Black Sea: 3 ships.
    • Mediterranean Sea: 2 ships including 1 cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 8 cruise missiles.  
  • Using unmanned Magura V5 boats, the “Group 13” unit of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense struck the “Conro Trader” and “Avangard” ferries. The latter ran aground due to damage. During the attack, 4 transport and landing boats of the KS-701 “Tunets” type were damaged, one of them, the pilot boat “Mechta”, sank.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

  • Units of the 40th Separate Marines Brigade of the Pacific Fleet are operating in the Urozhaine area.
  • The 58th Air Assault Regiment of the enemy’s 7th Air Assault Division is operating near Verbove. The “Saturn” UAV unit is active on the Orikhiv direction.
  • Units of the 35th Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade of the 36th Combined Arms Army are operating on the Zaporizhzhia direction.
  • The newly formed 44th Airborne Division of the Russian Airborne Forces, consisting of two regiments—the 111th Motorized Rifle Regiment (formerly the 111th Rifle Regiment of Mobilization Reserve of the 1st Army Corps) and the 387th Motorized Rifle Regiment is active on the Zaporizhzhia direction. A third regiment of this division is currently being formed, likely to be manned by volunteers or conscripts from occupied Crimea. Officer positions in the 387th Airborne Regiment are filled by officers from the Ryazan Higher Airborne Command School, but the regiment is poorly staffed with other personnel and is not fully equipped with weapons, combat, and other equipment.
  • One of the former commanders of the Wagner PMC, Boris Nizhevenok (codename “Zombie”), has been appointed commander of the newly created “Vostok-V” Volunteer Reconnaissance Assault Brigade of the Russian National Guard. This brigade previously operated on the Chasiv Yar direction. It is expected to include up to 3,500 former Wagner mercenaries.

Escalation indicators:

  • High intensity of shelling on the Pokrovsk direction.

Possible operation situation developments:

  • Despite the slowed pace of advancement in the Vovchansk direction, there are no signs of the enemy transitioning to defense on this direction, unlike on the Lyptsi direction.
  • The enemy’s “Sever” Operational Grouping command is preparing to cross the Vovcha River towards Hatyshche and Synelnykove to create conditions for the further advance of the 25th and 138th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 6th Combined Arms Army into the city of Vovchansk.
  • The enemy’s “Sever” Operational Grouping command will likely intensify efforts on the Vovchansk direction, possibly deploying 2-3 motorized rifle battalions and a tank battalion from the 6th Combined Arms Army towards Tykhe and Vovchanski Khutory.
  • Another potential development could be the enemy’s attempt to connect their footholds in the Vovchansk direction with those in the Lyptsi direction. To accomplish this, they might initiate offensive operations toward Buhruvatka-Starytsya, targeting Izbytske and Ternova. This would involve deploying additional motorized rifle and tank battalions on the western bank of the Siversky Donets River.
  • The deployment of reserves from the 44th Army Corps in the Lyptsi area (one battalion each from the 30th and 41st Motorized Rifle Regiments of the 72nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 44th Army Corps) cannot be excluded.
  • The enemy will soon capture the “Kanal” neighborhood in Chasiv Yar, as their forward units have taken an enveloping position around this part of the city.
  • The “Center” Operational Grouping command is focused on executing the following operational plan: to establish conditions for the blockade and encirclement of the Kurakhove area or to create advantageous circumstances for launching an offensive operation to encircle “Tavriya” OSG’s defense in Toretsk area from the south.
  • The Russian military command may redeploy the 7th and 76th Air Assault Divisions from the Robotyne area to the Luhansk, Kherson Oblasts in Ukraine or Kursk Oblast in Russia.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 31.05.24  

Personnel – almost 507,650 (+1390); 

Tanks 7,728 (+18); 

Armored combat vehicles – 14,935 (+22); 

Artillery systems – 13,140 (+39);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,088 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 815 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 17,905 (+56);

Aircraft – 357 (0);

Helicopters – 326 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 10,587 (+55);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,229 (+7);

Boats/ships – 28 (0).


  • According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian forces shelled 9 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 81 towns and villages and 181 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
  • During the night of May 30-31, Russian forces fired five rockets at Kharkiv. One of them hit a five-story building. At least six people have been confirmed dead, with 25 others injured, including two children.
  • During the night air raid alert, the enemy launched a missile strike on Kyiv. The air defense system successfully destroyed all targets. However, debris falling in the Holosiivskyi district caused a fire in an uninhabited building. According to DTEK, a transformer substation in Kyiv was destroyed as a result of the Russian missile strike on the morning of May 31st.
  • At nightfall of May 31, Russian military forces launched an assault on Odesa, using what appears to be a ballistic missile armed with cluster munitions. The attack by targeted the port infrastructure. As a result, two individuals were injured by shrapnel: a 28-year-old woman and a 37-year-old man.
  • Today, 75 Ukrainians, mostly military personnel but also civilians, including five women, one of whom is a servicewoman, returned to their homes. Overall, 3,210 Ukrainians have been successfully brought back from Russian captivity.
  • Dmytro Lubinets, the human rights ombudsman, revealed that the Russian side is not adhering to any rules when compiling lists of prisoners for exchanges. There are no responses from the Russian side to Ukrainian requests except for vague promises to consider or take action. Subsequently, without any explanations, they remove 99% of the people from the lists Ukraine submits and then say: “Take these if you want, if not, then don’t.”
  • The Coordination Headquarters for Prisoner of War Affairs reports that the bodies of 212 fallen defenders were repatriated to Ukraine on May 31.
  • The Save Ukraine charity team successfully repatriated five additional orphaned children who had been illegally deported to Russia.
  • In the temporarily annexed Crimea, Russian invaders intend to appropriate 950 land plots without compensating their rightful owners, in the name of military needs. This directive comes from the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, according to the Center for National Resistance within the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine.

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