Центр оборонних стратегій

Russia’s war on Ukraine. 23.06.2024

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational Group of Forces (OTG) “Kharkiv” on the Kharkiv direction the occupiers, supported by aviation, attacked near Vovchansk. Ukrainian Defense Forces successfully repelled 2 enemy attacks.

In the “Khortytsia” Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) operational zone on the Kupyansk direction, the enemy made 15 attempts to displace Ukrainian Defense Forces from their positions in the areas of Stelmakhivka, Synkivka, Stepova Novoselivka, Pisky, Andriivka, and Myasozharivka. 12 enemy attacks were successfully repelled. The tense situation remains near Stelmakhivka. On the Lyman direction, Russian occupiers attempted 8 times to advance in the areas of Nevske, Terny, and Novosadove; all attacks were repelled. The situation on the Siversk direction, has not undergone significant changes. Since the beginning of the day, occupiers have made 10 unsuccessful attacks in the areas of Verkhnyokamianske, Rozdolivka, Spine, and Vyimka. 4 enemy attempts to approach the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces near Hryhorivka, Chasiv Yar, and Ivanivka on the Kramatorsk direction failed. Fighting continues near Klishchiivka. The situation remains tense on the Toretsk direction. The number of attempts by Russian occupiers to infiltrate the defense of Ukrainian units has increased to 15. With aviation support, the enemy attacked near Toretsk, Pivnichne, and New York. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 11 attacks, and 4 engagements are ongoing. Ukrainian soldiers are making maximum efforts to contain enemy activity and exhaust them.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone, on the Pokrovsk direction, the intensity of combat remains high. The number of engagements has increased to 44. With the support of all available means of fire impact, the occupiers continue to exert pressure on the combat formations of Ukraine’s defenders near Oleksandrivka, Novooleksandrivka, Vozdvyzhenka, Yevhenivka, Sokil, Novoselivka Persha, Novopokrovske, and Karlivka. 32 enemy attacks have been repelled, and 12 engagements are ongoing. There were 15 engagements on the Kurakhove direction. Enemy activity continues near Nevelske, Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, and Paraskoviivka. 11 enemy attacks were repelled, and battles are ongoing.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on the Prydniprovskiy direction, 6 enemy attacks were unsuccessful.

No significant changes occurred in the situation on the other directions.

General conclusion: 

  • The objective of the “Sever (North)” Operational Grouping’s command in northern Kharkiv Oblast remains to fix part of the Ukrainian forces and resources along the northern border, enabling Russian forces to resume offensive operations in more critical areas of the Southwestern Theater of Operations, particularly in Donetsk Oblast.
  • The tempo of the Russian advance in northern Kharkiv Oblast has significantly decreased in recent days.
  • Russian forces attack in small infantry groups supported by UAVs, artillery, and aviation, with minimal use of armored vehicles on the Kharkiv direction.
  • No S-300 missile strikes have been launched on Kharkiv since the lifting of restrictions on the use of US-provided missiles against Russian territory.
  • Russian forces have increased the intensity of assaults on the Toretsk-Horlivka direction and maintain relatively high combat activity.
  • There are no signs of an enemy frontal assault on Toretsk, but the aim of their offensive might be to force the “Khortytsia” OSG tactical group defending the city to concentrate its main forces here.
  • The operational subordination of the 132nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (1st Army Corps), advancing on the Arkhanhelske-Kalynove and Novobakhmutivka-Oleksandropil directions along the Kostyantynivka-Yasynuvata road, indicates joint actions of the “Center” and “South” Operational Groupings on their shared flank. The enemy’s “South” Operational Grouping, advancing on the Kramatorsk direction, is behind schedule both in the Chasiv Yar area and further south along the Klishchiivka-Andriivka line, meaning their pace in reaching areas advantageous for the Toretsk operation (Ivanopillya-Bilohorivka-Dyliivka-Pleshchiivka area) does not meet the planned timelines.
  • The “Center” Operational Grouping, operating on the Pokrovsk direction, has achieved clear and undeniable success, significantly bypassing the “Khortytsia” OSG’s Toretsk defense zone to the west but is now focused on pushing Ukrainian defense units west of the barrier line along the Vovcha, Kazenyi Torets, and Bychok rivers and advancing towards the critical Pokrovsk-Kostyantynivka rockade of the Ukrainian Defense Forces
  • The advance of the 132nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (1st Army Corps) to the Sukha Balka-New York line or the Romanivka area along the Kostyantynivka-Yasynuvata road will complete the formation of the southern flank for the beginning of the Toretsk offensive operation.
  • Russian forces maintain high-intensity combat operations on the Chasiv Yar direction and around Avdiivka and may escalate in the coming weeks if the Russian military command assesses the situation as favorable before Ukrainian forces redeploy reserves back to Donetsk Oblast.
  • The capture of Shumy facilitates the Russian advance towards Pivnichne and eventually creates conditions for a push towards Toretsk, allowing the Russian grouping to support efforts in Chasiv Yar or west of Avdiivka.
  • Ukrainian Defense Forces have struck energy infrastructure in the Russian-occupied territory of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, prompting enemy claims of threats to the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.
  • The enemy’s “Sever” Operational Grouping uses shelters to protect brigade command posts and other assets beyond the HIMARS range equipped with GMLRS rockets in northern Kharkiv Oblast. If the US grants permission to use ATACMS missiles to strike Russian territory at full range, the entire enemy command system will be within strike range. Currently, command posts of the “Sever” Operational Grouping are deployed 100-150 km from the frontline.
  • Should the enemy deploy S-400 SAM launchers on their national territory outside the HIMARS range, they can control up to 48% of Ukrainian airspace. Such a Russian Armed Forces air defense setup would complicate the ability of the Ukrainian Air Force to use manned aircraft closer to the frontline, in enemy aviation bases, missile forces positioning areas, and strike UAV units. Ukrainian F-16 pilots would have to operate in contested airspace.
  • Ukrainian Defense Forces can consolidate aviation support for ground operations if they receive enough fighters and have a sufficient number of qualified pilots, provided enemy air defense capabilities are reduced.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

  • There were 133 combat engagements on various fronts.
  • On the Kharkiv direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked near Hlyboke and Vovchansk.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces advanced westward along the forest strip northwest of Novovodyane. Battles are ongoing near Synkivka, Pisky, Stepova Novoselivka, Berestove, Stelmakhivka, Andriivka, and Myasozharivka.
  • On the Lyman direction, battles took place near Hrekivka, Nevske, Novosadove, Terny, and in the area of Serebriansk Forest.
  • On the Siversk Direction, Russian forces attacked near Verkhnyokamianske, Spine, Rozdolivka, Vyimka, seized a foothold on two streets in the eastern part of Rozdolivka, and captured three forest strips near Vyimka.
  • On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces slightly advanced within the ‘Kanal’ neighborhood captured the Chasiv Yar Ore-Enrichment Plant. The 200th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 14th Army Corps advanced in the Kalynivka area. The enemy also attacked near Hryhorivka, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, Andriivka, and Kurdyumivka.
  • On the Toretsk direction, from positions in front of the former ‘Mayorsk’ checkpoint with forces from 3-4 assault groups up to platoon size each, after a brief artillery preparation, the enemy advanced westward along the road and railway to Pivnichne, reached several buildings on the eastern outskirts of the village near Hirnytskyi Lane and Zaliznychna Street. Enemy assault groups, up to company size, acting from the direction of Michurinska Corrective Colony and Mayorsk Concrete Plant, displaced Ukrainian Defense Forces from positions behind the Siversky Donets-Donbas Canal, advancing along Ukrainska Street in the western direction to the wood east of Pivnichne. The enemy took control of the ruins of the former Shumy village and two earthen mounds directly north and west of the village, advanced into fields northeast of Shumy, entered Druzhba, reached the outskirts of Pivnichne. The enemy’s advance is estimated to be 2 to 2.5 km deep in the area, up to 3.5 km. The enemy seeks to consolidate positions in the wood southwest of Shumy, the eastern edge of the forest east of Pivnichne, and in the area of the eastern outskirts of Pivnichne.
  • On the Pokrovsk direction, units of the 35th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 41st Army Corps seized a forest strip northeast of Novooleksandrivka. The enemy also attacked from Novooleksandrivka and reached the southern outskirts of Vozdvyzhenka, engaged in battles on the outskirts of Karlivka, advanced into the eastern part of Yasnobrodivka, attacked near Kalynove, Yevhenivka, Sokil, Novoselivka Persha, Novopokrovske, and Ocheretyne.
  • On the Kurakhove direction, Russian forces attacked near Heorhiivka, Krasnohorivka, Paraskoviivka, Kostyantynivka, and Vodyane.
  • On the Vremivka direction, the enemy attacked near Staromayorske and Urozhaine.
  • Ukrainian Defense forces struck Russian bases and air defense systems at Mariupol Airport, a Russian range near Staryi Krym, and a Russian base near Nikolske.
  • Ukrainian Defense forces carried out an airstrike on the objects of the 726th Training Center of Russian Air Defense in Vorontsovka, Krasnodar Krai, using UAVs.
  • On the Orikhiv direction, Russian forces attacked near Kamianske, Robotyne, Verbove, Malaya Tokmachka, Novopokrovka, and Nesteryanka.
  • Defense forces are intensifying counterattacks in the Orihiv – Mala Tokmachka direction.
  • On the Prydniprovskiy direction, positional battles continued on the left bank of Kherson Oblast, particularly in Krynky and on the islands in the floodplain of the Dnipro River.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
    • Black Sea: 2 ship, including 1 cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 4 cruise missiles.
    • Azov Sea: 8 ships, including 3 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 20 cruise missiles.
    • Mediterranean Sea: 0 ship, including 0 cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 0 cruise missiles.  

Changes in the enemy disposition:

  • The 132nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (1st Army Corps) is advancing along the Kostyantynivka-Yasynuvata road and has operational control over the 1436th and 1168th Motorized Rifle Regiments of the Territorial Defense. The brigade has been reinforced with up to 3 rifle regiments and 5 rifle battalions from the mobilization reserve. This means that the enemy grouping in the Toretsk direction now includes one separate motorized rifle brigade, up to 5 regiments, up to 5 separate battalions, and 2 reserve battalions (march replenishment units). The command of the ” Tsentr (Center)” Operational Grouping may redeploy up to 2 battalions of the 110th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (1st Army Corps) to this direction. Overall, in the Ozaryanivka-Novobakhmutivka sector, the enemy can concentrate up to 11,000 personnel, up to 50 tanks, and up to 120 armored fighting vehicles.
  • The 40th Separate Marines Brigade of the Pacific Fleet is operating near Prechystivka.

Escalation indicators:

  • Significant increase in enemy activity near Toretsk. Russian forces have intensified airstrikes and ground attacks near Kamianske on the Orikhiv direction, potentially preparing to resume offensive operations in this sector.

Possible operation situation developments:

  • In the near future, the command of the enemy’s “Tsentr (Center)” Operational Grouping is expected to intensify efforts either toward Zalizne or Pivdenne, moving north along the Siversky Donets-Donbas Canal. The enemy aims to expand its control east of Pivnichne.
  • The ” Tsentr ” Operational Grouping will likely increase its efforts in the general direction of Mayorsk-Pivnichne, with part of its forces targeting either Zalizne or Pivdenne. Simultaneously, they will attack forward positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces along the Kalynove-Stara Mykolaivka and Oleksandropil-Panteleimonivka directions. This development would require additional forces and resources from the enemy’s South-Western Theater of Operations to support the “Tsentr ” Operational Grouping. However, this is unlikely given the concurrent attempts by the “Tsentr” Operational Grouping to turn tactical successes in the Ocheretyne area into operational gains.
  • The 74th and 55th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 41st Army, the 15th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Army, and the 114th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps, reinforced by several regiments and battalions from territorial troops and mobilization reserves, will soon attempt to break through Vozdvyzhenka towards the Pokrovsk – Kostyantynivka road. Their goal is to cut it off between Malynivka and Nova Poltavka, reach the Vovcha River between Prohres and Komyshivka, and, if conditions allow, establish several bridgeheads.
  • It is expected that the intensity of enemy attacks in the direction of Sokil – Yevhenivka – Vovche will increase, aiming to break through to the Prohres area and thus support from the north the operations of their tactical group preparing for battles for Novoselivka Persha.
  • The fighting in the Staromayorske area is a diversionary action aimed at forming a strike tactical group of 3-4 brigades and 1-2 regiments in the Mykilske-Novodonetske sector. The likely objective of this tactical group could be to break through the Kashlahach River in the Uspenivka area simultaneously with the “Yug (South)” Operational Grouping’s advance towards Kurakhove.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 23.06.24  

Personnel – almost 534,360 (+1270); 

Tanks 8,019 (+10);

Armored combat vehicles – 15,398 (+15); 

Artillery systems – 14,195 (+61);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,108 (+2);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 863 (+2);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 19,248 (+44);

Aircraft – 359 (0);

Helicopters – 326 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 11,355 (+50);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,321 (+13);

Boats/ships – 29 (0).


  • According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian forces shelled 10 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 107 towns and villages and 111 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
  • In the early hours of Sunday, the Ukrainian Air Force successfully intercepted and shot down two out of three “Kalibr” missiles launched by Russian forces. Debris from one of the intercepted missiles caused partial damage to residential buildings in a village in Kyiv Oblast, resulting in minor injuries to two individuals.
  • In the past 24 hours on the Kharkiv direction, Russian forces carried out 20 air strikes, dropping a total of 35 guided aerial bombs (KABs).
  • On June 23, Russian occupiers conducted air bomb attacks on Kharkiv, which led to the death of one man and injuries to twelve others. The strikes targeted a private residential building and a children’s educational facility, disrupting power supply to roughly half of the city and halting the operations of the metro and surface electric transport systems.
  • Five individuals were wounded from shelling in Donetsk Oblast on the morning of June 23.
  • On June 23, Russian troops deployed a drone strike on a municipal enterprise in the Stanislavska community in Kherson Oblast, injuring two people.
  • On June 22, Denis Novikov, a 38-year-old dispatcher from the NEC “Ukrenergo” substation in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, succumbed to injuries sustained during a massive enemy attack.
  • On Monday, June 24, scheduled power outages will be implemented from 00:00 to 24:00, as reported by NEC “Ukrenergo.” The restrictions will be more severe from 19:00 to 23:00 due to increased consumption at the start of the workweek and the challenging situation in the power system following recent Russian strikes.

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