Центр оборонних стратегій

Russia’s war on Ukraine. 28.06.2024

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational Group of Forces (OTG) “Kharkiv” on the Kharkiv direction, 3 enemy assaults in the areas of Vovchansk, Lyptsi, and Sotnytsky Kozachok were unsuccessful.

In the “Khortytsia” Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) operational zone on the Kupyansk direction, there were 10 clashes. The occupiers attacked in the areas of Stepova Novoselivka, northeast of Petropavlivka, Pishchane, Stelmakhivka, and Andriivka. All attacks were repelled. On the Lyman direction, the aggressor tried to break through the defenses 8 times in the areas of Kopanky, Nevske, Makiivka, Terny, and Torske. On the Siversk direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces successfully repelled 6 enemy attacks near Spirne, Rozdolivka, and Vyimka. On the Kramatorsk direction the enemy tried 6 times to displace the Ukrainian Defense Forces units from their positions in the Chasiv Yar area. The occupiers continued to be active on the Toretsk direction. Overall, the enemy attempted 26 assaults on the Ukrainian Defense Forces positions in the areas of Druzhba, Zalizne, Pivnichne, Toretsk, and New York.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone the situation remains tense on the Pokrovsk direction. The enemy continues trying to penetrate the Ukrainian Defense Forces’ lines in the areas of Vozdvyzhenka, Novooleksandrivka, Yevhenivka, Progress, Novoselivka Persha, Karlivka, and Umanske. On the Kurakhove direction, the occupiers attacked the Defense Ukrainian Forces’ positions 18 times. On the Vremivka direction, the enemy pressed in the Kostyantynivka area. On the Orikhiv direction, the aggressor’s attempt to attack in the Mala Tokmachka area was unsuccessful.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG on the Prydniprovskiy direction, 10 enemy attacks were successfully repelled.

General conclusion: 

  • Neither the command of the enemy’s 25th Army Corps nor the command of the enemy’s “Zapad (West)” Operational Grouping expected active offensive actions by the Ukrainian Defense Forces on the Lyman direction at a time when the “Zapad” Operational Grouping shifted the direction of its main strike to the Kupyansk direction and towards Borova.
  • Russian forces are probing the Ukrainian defenses along the state border within Kharkiv Oblast to create a situation of operational uncertainty.
  • Successful counterattacks by the Ukrainian Defense Forces on the Lyman direction have complicated the enemy’s ability to organize and conduct an offensive and reach the Novoselivka – Drobysheve and Lyman – Yampil lines, which is obviously a necessary condition for conducting an offensive operation in the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration area.
  • The enemy has completely fallen behind the operation’s schedule in the direction of the main strike of the “Yug (South)” Operational Grouping.
  • The critical factor for the overall tactical situation on the Kramatorsk direction is the line along the Siversky Donets-Donbas canal. Although the enemy managed to reach it south of Chasiv Yar at one of the key points (the intersection of the Kostyantynivka-Bakhmut road with the canal), they are unable to cross it westwards. This circumstance ensures the stability of the entire defense area in Chasiv Yar and its surroundings. The success of the city’s defense directly depends on the situation on the directions of Ivanivske – Stupochky, Klishchiivka – Stupochky, and Bohdanivka – Kalynivka.
  • On the Pokrovsk direction, the command of the enemy’s “Tsentr (Center)” Operational Grouping has begun partial regrouping of forces and means.
  • Russian forces maintain the pace of the offensive on the Toretsk direction since the activation in this area and aim to reduce the Ukrainian foothold in this area.
  • Russian forces have primarily conducted frontal attacks with large groups of infantry on small villages south and east of Toretsk and have not attempted large-scale assaults with major forces in this area, which is why they have not achieved any significant tactical successes in this area.
  • The Russian military command is attempting to use its offensive in the northern Kharkiv Oblast and the limited maneuverability of the Ukrainian Defense Forces’ reserves to achieve successes in critically important frontline areas, primarily in the Donetsk Oblast.
  • Recently, Russian forces have intensified actions in previously inactive sections of the front instead of advancing on the Pokrovsk direction or capturing the operationally important city of Chasiv Yar.
  • The further Russian forces advance in the Chasiv Yar area and northwest of Avdiivka, without advancing on the Toretsk direction, the deeper the Ukrainian foothold will become, creating a zone of fire control over the tactical rear of the enemy groups advancing in the Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk directions, making the Russian forces more vulnerable to counterattacks by the Ukrainian Defense Forces.
  • Enemy offensive actions on the Toretsk direction indicate that the Russian military command does not consider it feasible to conduct a large-scale operation to advance on Kostyantynivka from multiple operational directions.
  • Continued Russian attacks to the west and southwest of Avdiivka and further focus on advancing northwest of Avdiivka towards the T0504 Kostyantynivka – Pokrovsk highway, rather than further north of the Avdiivka bulge, indicate that Russian forces are currently aiming to advance west towards Pokrovsk, rather than creating conditions for a larger operation to capture Kostyantynivka with strikes from the south and east.
  • For the past two days, the enemy has been reinforcing the forward units of the 30th and 35th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades operating towards Vozdvyzhenka and Progress, where the enemy’s “Tsentr” Operational Grouping is delivering its main strike in the Pokrovsk direction.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

  • There were 119 combat engagements on various fronts.
  • On the Kharkiv direction, an enemy sabotage and reconnaissance group attempted to cross the state border in the Zolochiv direction, but units of the Ukrainian Border Guard neutralized the breach near Sotnytsky Kozachok.
  • Fighting continued near Lyptsi, Hlyboke, and in the Vovchansk area. The Ukrainian Defense Forces successfully counterattacked in Vovchansk and regained positions on Korolenka, Soborna, and Khliborobiv streets.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces advanced 1.5 km towards Petropavlivka from Vilshana. Effective electronic warfare by the enemy facilitated their advance near Synkivka. The enemy also attacked in the areas of Stepova Novoselivka, Stelmakhivka, Pishchane, Berestove, Andriivka, Makiivka, Kopanky, and Nevske.
  • On the Lyman direction, fighting continued near Terny and Torske. The Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked and advanced east of Terny.
  • The enemy’s “Zapad” Operational Grouping did not notice in time the successful counterattacks of the forward units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces east of Terny and Yampolivka in the operational zone of the 25th Army, allowing the Ukrainian troops to push the enemy 1.5 km to the east, thus significantly complicating the enemy’s plan to eliminate the Ukrainian Defense Forces’ bridgehead on the Chornyi Zherebets River. In the Serebriansk Forest, the Ukrainian Defense Forces pushed the enemy up to 2 km north of Bilohorivka.
  • On the Siversk Direction, Russian forces reached the eastern outskirts of Bilohorivka, advanced near Vyimka from the southeast and near Spirne. The 56th Airborne Regiment of the 106th Airborne Division is fighting for control of Rozdolivka, trying to advance west of the village. The enemy attacked in the Bilohorivka area.
  • On the Kramatorsk direction, the enemy failed to break into the “Novyi” neighborhood from the southeast, fully take control of the “Kanal” neighborhood from the east, or break into Chasiv Yar through Kalynivka. The enemy is unable to push the Ukrainian Defense Forces units from the Klishchiivka – Andriivka line.
  • On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces advanced near Toretsk, south of New York, and entered the village, advanced to the outskirts of Zalizne, and approximately 1.7 km from the Mayorske railway station. They attacked in the areas of Dachne, Shumy, Druzhba, and Pivnichne.
  • On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces advanced south of Yasnobrodivka, within Sokil, reached Karlivka from Netaylove, and attacked in the areas of Vozdvyzhenka, Novooleksandrivka, Yevhenivka, Novoselivka Persha, Sokil, Yasnobrodivka, and Nevelske.
  • The Ukrainian Defense Forces are counterattacking and preventing Russian forces from advancing near the northern bank of the Karlivka Reservoir.
  • On the Kurakhove direction, the 39th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 68th Army Corps advanced south of Kostyantynivka. The enemy also advanced within Krasnohorivka. Fighting continued in the areas of Heorhiivka, Paraskoviivka, and Kostyantynivka. The Defense Forces counterattacked near Volodymyrivka, Vodyane, and Vuhledar.
  • On the Vremivka direction, positional battles continued, and the Defense Forces counterattacked near Staromayorske and Urozhaine.
  • On the Orikhiv direction, Russian forces continued attacks near Robotyne, Mala Tokmachka, and northeast of Verbove.
  • The Ukrainian Defense Forces are accumulating reserves near Orikhiv and Mala Tokmachka in preparation for a counteroffensive.
  • On the Prydniprovskiy direction, Russian forces continued attacks on the left bank of the Kherson region in the areas of Krynky and the Antonivskyi Bridge north of Oleshky. They hold positions on the islands in the Dnipro River delta but lack sufficient boats to support their operations.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
    • Black Sea: 2 ships, including 1 cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 0 cruise missiles.
    • Azov Sea: 8 ships, including 2 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 16 cruise missiles.
    • Mediterranean Sea: 2 ships, including 2 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 24 cruise missiles.  

Changes in the enemy disposition:

  • Forward units of the 228th Motorized Rifle Regiment and the 239th Tank Regiment of the 90th Tank Division are being reinforced by separate units of the 80th Tank Regiment of the same division. Units of the 239th Tank Regiment in the direction of Yasnobrodivka will be replaced by units of the 80th Tank Regiment due to loss of combat capability.
  • Units from the 164th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, the 31st, 37th Motorized Rifle Regiments, and the 19th Tank Regiment of the 67th Motorized Rifle Division of the 25th Army Corps, as well as the 488th and 283rd Motorized Rifle Regiments of the 144th Motorized Rifle Division of the 20th Army Corps, are regrouping and preparing to resume the offensive in the direction of Yampolivka and Terny.
  • Forward units of the 217th and 331st Airborne Regiments of the 98th Airborne Division, the 11th Separate Air Assault Brigade, the 200th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 14th Army Corps, the 102nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division, and the so-called “Volunteer Corps” have suffered significant losses during assault operations in the Chasiv Yar area and need replacement.

Possible operation situation developments:

  • The goal of enemy’s tactical grouping on the Toretsk direction is to capture Toretsk and New York, to force Ukrainian Defense Forces units out of their positions in Oleksandropil, to advance north and reach Kostyantynivka, while simultaneously forcing Ukrainian Defense Forces units to retreat from Klishchiivka and Andriivka under the threat of encirclement.
  • The command of the enemy’s “Tsentr (Center)” Operational Grouping is increasing efforts in the direction of Zalizne and northward along the Siversky Donets-Donbas canal.
  • The “Tsentr ” Operational Grouping will likely increase its efforts in the general direction of Mayorsk-Pivnichne, with part of its forces targeting either Zalizne or Pivdenne. Simultaneously, they will attack forward positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces along the Kalynove-Stara Mykolaivka and Oleksandropil-Panteleimonivka directions. This development would require additional forces and resources from the enemy’s South-Western Theater of Operations to support the “Tsentr ” Operational Grouping. However, this is unlikely given the concurrent attempts by the “Tsentr” Operational Grouping to turn tactical successes in the Ocheretyne area into operational gains.
  • Either the increased efforts by the enemy’s “Tsentr ” Operational Grouping in the operational area of the 72nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 3rd Army Corps in the general direction of Klishchiivka – Stupochky, or the change in the direction of the offensive of the 102nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division and the 11th Separate Air Assault Brigade from north to south of Ivanivske along the canal, may change in the situation in favor of the enemy.
  • The deployment of the 506th and 589th Motorized Rifle Regiments of the 27th Motorized Rifle Division should be expected on the Pokrovsk direction. They may be introduced into the operation in the offensive area of the 132nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade in the direction of Oleksandropil or Kalynove, or to reinforce the 15th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade in the direction of Novoselivka Persha.
  • The enemy’s military command on the Pokrovsk direction will choose between two options for its further actions: either continue to push the Ukrainian Defense Forces west of the Vovcha and Kazennyi Torets rivers, i.e., delivering the main strike in the direction of Vozdvyzhenka, Novoselivka Persha, Progress, and in the Yasnobrodivka area, or shift the direction of the main strike closer to the Toretsk area of the Ukrainian Defense Forces, i.e., become more active in the direction of Kalynove and Oleksandropil and east of Pivnichne. The deployment of parts of the 27th Motorized Rifle Division indicates a higher likelihood of the second option.
  • The enemy will increase the intensity of attacks in the direction of Sokil – Yevhenivka – Vovche, aiming to break through to the Prohres area and thus support from the north the operations of their tactical group preparing for battles for Novoselivka Persha.
  • The fighting in the Staromayorske area is a diversionary action aimed at forming a strike tactical group of 3-4 brigades and 1-2 regiments in the Mykilske-Novodonetske sector. The likely objective of this tactical group could be to break through the Kashlahach River in the Uspenivka area simultaneously with the “Yug (South)” Operational Grouping’s advance towards Kurakhove.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 28.06.24  

Personnel – almost 540,490 (+1170); 

Tanks 8,066 (+24);

Armored combat vehicles – 15,480 (+21); 

Artillery systems – 14,423 (+60);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,109 (+1);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 871 (+3);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 19,514 (+46);

Aircraft – 360 (+1);

Helicopters – 326 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 11,509 (+50);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,329 (+5);

Boats/ships – 29 (0).


  • According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian forces shelled 9 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 116 towns and villages and 126 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
  • On June 28, Ukraine successfully secured the release of 10 civilians from Russian captivity. Among them was Nariman Dzhelyal, the deputy head of the Mejlis of the Crimean Tatar People, who was captured in Crimea in 2021, and priests of the Ukrainian Greek Catholic Church, who were taken in Berdyansk for resisting the Russian occupiers.
  • On the morning of June 28, Russian occupiers attacked the village of Odradokamyanka in Kherson Oblast using a drone, killing a 50-year-old man.
  • Later that day, the Russian army launched a missile strike on a nine-story building in Dnipro, destroying four floors and damaging the fifth. One person was reported dead and 12 were injured.
  • On June 28, Russian occupational forces launched a ballistic missile at Odesa Oblast, causing a fire in a wheat field.
  • In the early hours of June 28, 2024, Russian occupiers dropped aerial bombs on New York in Donetsk Oblast, resulting in the deaths of four people and injuries to three civilians, including an 8-year-old girl.
  • As a result of Russian shelling in the village of Zolota Balka in Kherson Oblast, a civilian woman was killed.
  • In Kharkiv Oblast, due to intensified shelling by Russian forces, the zone of mandatory evacuation for families with children was expanded to include dangerous villages in the Izyum, Bohodukhiv, Kupyansk, and Chuhuiv districts.

Centre for Defence Strategies (CDS) is a Ukrainian security think tank. We operate since 2020.

We publish this brief daily. If you would like to subscribe, please send us an email at cds.dailybrief@gmail.com

The CDC Daily Brief is produced with the support of the Kyiv School of Economics https://kse.ua/

Please note, that we subscribe only verified persons and can decline or cancel the subscription at our own discretion

We are an independent, non-government, non-partisan, and non-profit organization. More at www.defence.org.ua

Our Twitter (in English) – https://twitter.com/defence_centre

Our Facebook (in Ukrainian) – https://www.facebook.com/cds.UA

Our brief is for information only and we verify our information to the best possible extent