Центр оборонних стратегій

Russia’s war on Ukraine. 29.06.2024

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational Group of Forces (OTG) “Kharkiv” on the Kharkiv direction, the occupiers, with the support of aviation, attacked the Vovchansk area 12 times. Ukrainian Defense Forces units successfully repelled 10 attacks.

In the “Khortytsia” Operational-Strategic Group of Forces(OSG) operational zone on the Kupyansk direction, the enemy made 9 attempts to push Defense Forces units from their positions near Synkivka, Stepova Novoselivka, Stelmakhivka, and Kruhlyakivka. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 8 enemy attacks. The battle near Synkivka continues. On the Lyman direction, Russian invaders tried to advance 19 times in the areas of Hrekivka, Makiivka, Nevske, Torske, and Serebriansk Forest. Ukrainian defenders repelled 17 enemy attacks; the battles continue. The situation on the Siversk direction is tense. The occupiers conducted 19 assaults near Bilohorivka, Spirne, Verkhnyokamianske, Rozdolivka, and Vyimka. Ukrainian Defense Forces units repelled 15 Russian attacks. Measures are being taken to enhance defense resilience. On the Kramatorsk direction the occupiers are not abandoning their intentions to advance in the areas of Chasiv Yar, Novy, and Ivanivske. On the Horlivka – Toretsk direction, the enemy, with the support of aviation, attacked Ukrainian military positions 15 times. Fourteen enemy assaults ended unsuccessfully.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Pokrovsk direction, the intensity of combat operations remains high. The number of engagements has increased to 37. The invaders continue to pressure the battle formations of Ukrainian Defense Forces units near Vozdvyzhenka, Novooleksandrivka, Yevhenivka, Prohres, Novoselivka Persha, and Umanske. Twenty-nine enemy attacks were repelled, and battles continued. On the Kurakhove direction, there were 11 engagements. Five attacks near Heorhiivka, Kostyantynivka, and Paraskoviivka ended the enemy failure. Simultaneously, enemy activity near Krasnohorivka remains high, with ongoing battles. The situation is tense. Ukrainian Defense Forces are taking measures to stabilize the situation. On the Vremivka direction, the enemy is trying to penetrate the front line of defense near Vodyane, actively supported by artillery. On the Orikhiv and Prydniprovskiy directions, all efforts by the invading forces to push Ukrainian Defense Forces units from their positions have failed.

General conclusion: 

  • The situation in the northern Kharkiv Oblast has stabilized, with the enemy failing to make significant progress since June 12 and being forced to switch to defense. Russian forces quickly replenish losses in this area despite the high level of casualties.
  • Russian troops have intensified their pressure on the Siversk direction.
  • Ukrainian Defense Forces have expelled all Russian units from the “Kanal” neighborhood in Chasiv Yar, although isolated enemy groups remain in the neighborhood.
  • The ratio of enemy losses and reinforcements has changed: previously, for every 9 servicemen lost, 10 reinforcements would arrive. After the arrival of the first batches of ammunition for the Ukrainian Defense Forces from partners, only 8 reinforcements arrive for every 12 enemy servicemen lost.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

  • There were 140 combat engagements on various fronts.
  • On the Kharkiv direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces advanced to the center of Vovchansk along Heroiv Chornobylya Street.
  • Units of the enemy’s 11th Separate Engineer Brigade’s special mining battalion “Phoenix” are attempting to remotely mine areas in the north of Kharkiv Oblast.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, Russian troops advanced near Stepova Novoselivka and continued offensive actions in the areas of Synkivka, Petropavlivka, Stepova Novoselivka, Stelmakhivka, Pishchane, Kruhlyakivka, Andriivka, Nevske, Makiivka, and Kopanky.
  • On the Lyman direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces regained lost positions south of Kreminna and east of Terny, advancing approximately 1.5 km in the Yampolivka area. Russian troops continued offensive actions near Hrekivka, Torske, and in the Serebriansk Forest area.
  • On the Siversk Direction, units of the 106th Airborne Division captured Rozdolivka, but fighting within the village continues. The enemy attacked near Bilohorivka, Verkhnyokamianske, Spirne, Ivano-Dariivka, and Vyimka.
  • On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian troops advanced on the eastern outskirts of Chasiv Yar to the concrete plant in the “Kanal” neighborhood, secured positions in the center of Kalynivka, and continued offensive actions in the areas of Chasiv Yar, the “Novyi” and “Kanal” neighborhoods, Ivanivske, and Klishchiivka.
  • On the Toretsk direction, Russian troops secured positions on the outskirts of New York, achieved successes near Zalizne and Pivdenne, advanced to within 3 km of Toretsk, and continued assaults near Toretsk, Druzhba, and Pivnichne.
  • On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian troops continued offensive actions west of Avdiivka, advanced near the pond on the northwestern outskirts of Novooleksandrivka, are pushing Ukrainian Defense Forces units towards Vozdvyzhenka, and achieved minor successes near Sokil and Yasnobrodivka. They attacked in the areas of Vozdvyzhenka, Novooleksandrivka, Prohres, Yevhenivka, Novoselivka Persha, Umanske, Yasnobrodivka, and Karlivka.
  • On the Kurakhove direction, Russian troops advanced within Krasnohorivka, south of Kostyantynivka, and are within 3 km of the O0532 Kostyantynivka–Vuhledar highway. They continued offensives in the areas of Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Paraskoviivka, Kostyantynivka, and Vodyane.
  • On the Orikhiv direction, Russian troops continued attacks in the area of Mala Tokmachka, advancing 1 km near Zahirne.
  • On the Prydniprovskiy direction, battles continued on the left bank of Kherson Oblast, including near Krynky and the Antonivskyi Bridge.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
    • Black Sea: 1 ship, including 1 cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 0 cruise missiles.
    • Azov Sea: 3 ships, including 0 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 0 cruise missiles.
    • Mediterranean Sea: 2 ships, including 2 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 24 cruise missiles.  

Changes in the enemy disposition:

  • The Russian military command has been forced to withdraw the battalion of the 83rd Separate Air Assault Brigade, which suffered significant losses on the Kharkiv direction. The remaining units of the brigade are engaged in combat on the Kramatorsk direction.
  • Units of the 110th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps are operating on the Kurakhove direction.
  • Units of the 126th Separate Coastal Defense Brigade of the 22nd Army Corps of the 18th Army continue fighting on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River.

Possible operation situation developments:

  • The goal of enemy’s tactical grouping on the Toretsk direction is to capture Toretsk and New York, to force Ukrainian Defense Forces units out of their positions in Oleksandropil, to advance north and reach Kostyantynivka, while simultaneously forcing Ukrainian Defense Forces units to retreat from Klishchiivka and Andriivka under the threat of encirclement.
  • The “Tsentr ” Operational Grouping will likely increase its efforts in the general direction of Mayorsk-Pivnichne, with part of its forces targeting either Zalizne or Pivdenne. Simultaneously, they will attack forward positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces along the Kalynove-Stara Mykolaivka and Oleksandropil-Panteleimonivka directions. This development would require additional forces and resources from the enemy’s South-Western Theater of Operations to support the “Tsentr ” Operational Grouping. However, this is unlikely given the concurrent attempts by the “Tsentr” Operational Grouping to turn tactical successes in the Ocheretyne area into operational gains.
  • Either the increased efforts by the enemy’s “Tsentr ” Operational Grouping in the operational area of the 72nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 3rd Army Corps in the general direction of Klishchiivka – Stupochky, or the change in the direction of the offensive of the 102nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division and the 11th Separate Air Assault Brigade from north to south of Ivanivske along the canal, may change in the situation in favor of the enemy;
  • The deployment of the 506th and 589th Motorized Rifle Regiments of the 27th Motorized Rifle Division should be expected on the Pokrovsk direction. They may be introduced into the operation in the offensive area of the 132nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade in the direction of Oleksandropil or Kalynove, or to reinforce the 15th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade in the direction of Novoselivka Persha.
  • The enemy’s military command on the Pokrovsk direction will choose between two options for its further actions: either continue to push the Ukrainian Defense Forces west of the Vovcha and Kazennyi Torets rivers, i.e., delivering the main strike in the direction of Vozdvyzhenka, Novoselivka Persha, Progress, and in the Yasnobrodivka area, or shift the direction of the main strike closer to the Toretsk area of the Ukrainian Defense Forces, i.e., become more active in the direction of Kalynove and Oleksandropil and east of Pivnichne. The deployment of parts of the 27th Motorized Rifle Division indicates a higher likelihood of the second option.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 29.06.24  

Personnel – almost 541,560 (+1070); 

Tanks 8,073 (+7);

Armored combat vehicles – 15,505 (+25); 

Artillery systems – 14,480 (+57);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,109 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 871 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 19,568 (+54);

Aircraft – 360 (0);

Helicopters – 326 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 11,538 (+29);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,331 (+2);

Boats/ships – 29 (0).


  • More than 1,962 children have been affected in Ukraine due to the full-scale armed aggression of the Russian Federation. As of the morning of June 29, 2024, according to official information from juvenile prosecutors, 551 children have died and over 1,411 have been injured to varying degrees.
  • According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian forces shelled 13 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 110 towns and villages and 129 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
  • On the night of June 29, Ukrainian military forces destroyed all 10 Shahed drones that Russians used to attack Ukraine.
  • Over the past day, Russian military forces carried out 44 shellings (178 explosions) of the border areas of Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts. A civilian was injured in Znob-Trubchevske, and a critical infrastructure facility was damaged in Znob-Novhorodske.
  • Due to Russian aggression on Friday, 4 people were killed in Kherson Oblast, and another 10 were injured. In the morning of Saturday, Russia attacked the region again, resulting in two more injuries.
  • On June 29, the enemy attacked a police vehicle in the Shostka district of Sumy Oblast with a drone. The service vehicle was completely destroyed by a targeted FPV drone strike, but the police officers were unharmed. However, a local resident passing by was injured.
  • Russian forces attacked the city of Vilnyansk in the Zaporizhzhia district on Saturday evening, resulting in 7 deaths, including two children, and 18 injuries. A critical infrastructure facility, a store, and residential buildings were damaged.
  • As a result of Russian shelling in Donetsk Oblast throughout Saturday, four civilians were killed and another seven were injured. In the evening, Russians killed two more and injured four residents of Donetsk Oblast.
  • On June 29, around 15:50, Russian forces launched an airstrike on the center of the town of Derhachi, Kharkiv Oblast. Two men, aged 68 and 75, were injured. A 71-year-old woman experienced an acute stress reaction.
  • On Sunday, June 30, hourly power outage schedules, during which restrictions may be applied to different regions of the country, will be in effect throughout the day. According to Ukrenergo, the largest volume of restrictions will be applied from 17:00 to 23:00.

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