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Russia’s war on Ukraine. 30.06.2024

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational Group of Forces (OTG) “Kharkiv” on the Kharkiv direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces successfully halted 12 enemy attempts to improve their position in the Vovchansk area.

In the “Khortytsia” Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) operational zone the number of combat engagements on the Kupyansk and Lyman directions increased to 13. The enemy tried to dislodge the Ukrainian Defense Forces from positions in the areas of Synkivka, Stepova Novoselivka, Stelmakhivka, Hrekivka, Nevske, and Torske. The enemy also failed in 6 attempts to dislodge the Ukrainian Defense Forces from positions in the areas of Spirne and Vyimka on the Siversk direction. Additionally, seven unsuccessful attacks occurred near Kalynivka, Hryhorivka, and Chasiv Yar on the Kramatorsk direction. Fighting continues in the Novyi area. On the Horlivka – Toretsk direction, the enemy, supported by aviation, attacked Ukrainian positions 7 times. Fighting continues near New York.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone the number of engagements on the Pokrovsk direction increased to 41. The enemy’s highest activity remains in the area of Ocheretyne. The enemy persists in attempts to penetrate the battle lines of the Ukrainian Defense Forces near Novooleksandrivka, Yevhenivka, Vozdvyzhenka, Sokil, Novoselivka Persha, Prohres, and Umanske. Twenty-nine enemy attacks were repelled.  On the Kurakhove direction, the enemy conducted 14 assaults in the areas of Krasnohorivka, Kostyantynivka, and Paraskoviivka. Eleven attacks were successfully repelled. The situation remains tense in the Krasnohorivka area, where fighting continues. The activity of Russian occupiers on the Vremivka direction nearly doubled. The enemy assaulted the front line seven times in the areas of Vodyane, Urozhaine, and Staromayorske. On the Orikhiv direction, two enemy attacks occurred in the areas of Mala Tokmachka and Novodanylivka.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG, on the Prydniprovskiy direction, 4 more attempts by the enemy to seize Ukrainian Defense Forces’ positions in the Krynky area failed.

General conclusion: 

  • A radar of the experimental S-500 missile system, the 55R6M, was hit by an ATACMS missile strike from the Ukrainian Defense Forces.
  • Counterattacks by the Ukrainian Defense Forces on the Lyman direction surprised the command of the enemy’s “Zapad (West)” Operational Grouping, improving the tactical situation.
  • Active offensive operations by the Ukrainian Defense Forces thwarted enemy plans to advance towards Slovyansk-Kramatorsk from the northeast and breach the Lyman-Yampil line. Ukrainian forward units’ gains in the Serebriansk Forest and east of Terny and Yampolivka reduced the enemy’s chances of eliminating the Ukrainian bridgehead on the Chornyi Zherebets River in the Makiivka-Torske sector, at least tactically. The stability of Ukrainian positions in the Bilohorivka area on the far side of the Siversky Donets River improved, reducing the enemy’s capability to attack from the lakes Hnile and Mertvyi Donets area across the river from the north.
  • The actions of the enemy’s “Tsentr (Center)” Operational Grouping’s command to break through to Toretsk frontally, due to the disruption of the operation to encircle the “Khortytsia” OSG Toretsk defense area, is an attempt to catch up with the execution of the summer-autumn campaign plan of 2024 in this direction.
  • The enemy’s goal on the Toretsk direction is to capture Toretsk and New York, push the Ukrainian Defense Forces’ units out of their positions in Oleksandropil, advance northwards, and reach Kostyantynivka, simultaneously forcing the Ukrainian Defense Forces to retreat from Klishchiivka and Andriivka under the threat of encirclement.
  • On the Toretsk direction, the enemy expanded their tactical penetration, and their forward units advanced to Kharkivska Street in the village of Pivdenne. The combat capability of the Ukrainian Defense Forces’ units in the entire operational zone of the enemy’s “Tsentr (Center)” Operational Grouping is in question. The enemy’s “Center” Operational Grouping shifted its main strike direction to Pokrovsk and the Pokrovsk-Kostyantynivka road. An additional goal of their actions is to reach the Vovcha River banks.
  • The “Khortytsia” OSG command did not anticipate an attempt to break through to Toretsk from the east or missed the moment when the enemy started their actions.
  • There is operational uncertainty in the enemy’s actions on the Toretsk direction, with attempts to identify weak points in the Ukrainian forces’ defense, indicating a certain spontaneity in the enemy’s actions. However, one should not consider a potential assault on Toretsk from the eastern direction. The main indicator of the direction of further actions by the “Center” Operational Grouping is the direction where the main forces of the 27th Motorized Rifle Division will deploy.
  • On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian troops use high-speed motorcycles in unsuccessful attempts to bypass Ukrainian defenses.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

  • There were 117 combat engagements on various fronts.
  • On the Kharkiv direction, battles continued near and within Vovchansk and Hlyboke. Russian forces use TOS-1A to strike towards Lyptsi and have destroyed the crossing over the Vovcha River in Vovchansk.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces advanced along the railway line south of Ivanivka, approximately 1 km southeast of Synkivka, and captured positions north of Petropavlivka. They are trying to push Ukrainian Defense Forces out of the forested areas east of Myasozharivka, advanced near Nevske, and continued their offensive in the areas of Stepova Novoselivka, Stelmakhivka, Kruhlyakivka, Makiivka, and Hrekivka.
  • On the Lyman direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces advanced east of Terny and in the forested area southwest of Kreminna. The enemy was advancing near Torske and in the area of the Serebriansk Forest.
  • On the Siversk Direction, Russian forces advanced towards Pereyizne and continued their offensive in the areas of Spirne and Vyimka.
  • On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces made slight advances in the “Kanal” neighborhood and in the forested area south of Kalynivka. Battles continued near Chasiv Yar, Kalynivka, and Klishchiivka.
  • On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces made slight advances towards the “Siversky Donets – Donbas” canal east of Druzhba, east of Pivnichne and Zalizne, and on the outskirts of Pivdenne. They continued attacks near Toretsk, Pivnichne, Pivdenne, and New York.
  • Advanced units of a motorized rifle regiment of the Territorial Troops operationally subordinate to the 132nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps and the 109th Rifle Regiment of Mobilization Reserve of the 1st Army Corps (numbering to be confirmed) launched offensive actions towards Mayorsk-Pivnichne, Mayorsk-Zalizne, and the eastern outskirts of Pivdenne-Pivnichne. They achieved success in the tactical defense zone, penetrating to a depth of 2.6 km over an area 5.6 km wide. The enemy encountered minimal resistance and entered Pivdenne along Lenina and Krasna streets, advancing to Kharkivska street.
  • On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces captured Sokil, advanced to the western outskirts of Yevhenivka, but Ukrainian Defense Forces are holding positions on the outskirts of Sokil. The enemy advanced north of Umanske. Battles continued in the areas of Vozdvyzhenka, Novooleksandrivka, Prohres, Novoselivka Persha, Sokil, Yasnobrodivka, and Karlivka.
  • On the Kurakhove direction, Russian forces advanced within the southwestern part of Krasnohorivka, southeast of Kostyantynivka, and to the eastern outskirts of Maksymilianivka. Battles continued within Krasnohorivka, near Pobieda, Paraskoviivka, Kostyantynivka, and Vodyane.
  • On the Vremivka direction, positional battles continued near Staromayorske and Urozhaine.
  • On the Orikhiv direction, positional battles continued in the areas of Robotyne, Verbove, Mala Tokmachka, and Novodanylivka.
  • Ukrainian Defense Forces struck a diesel train using FPV drones near Tokmak.
  • On the Prydniprovskiy direction, positional battles continued on the left bank of Kherson Oblast, including the area of Krynky. Small arms battles are ongoing in the island zone near the Antonivskyi railway and road bridges.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
    • Black Sea: 1 ship, including 1 cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 0 cruise missiles.
    • Azov Sea: 3 ships, including 0 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 0 cruise missiles.
    • Mediterranean Sea: 2 ships, including 2 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 24 cruise missiles.  

Changes in the enemy disposition:

  • Soldiers of the 153rd Tank Regiment of the 47th Tank Division of the enemy’s 1st Tank Army are increasingly refusing to participate in combat operations. Units of the 83rd Separate Air Assault Brigade are operating on the territory of the Vovchansk Aggregate Producing Plant.
  • In the Lyman direction, the 25th Combined Arms Army has the 67th Motorized Rifle Division (31st, 36th, and 37th Motorized Rifle Regiments, 19th Tank Regiment), the 164th and 169th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades, and the 11th Tank Brigade in its operational zone. The main forces of the 144th Motorized Rifle Division of the 20th Combined Arms Army (283rd, 488th, and 254th Motorized Rifle Regiments) and the tactical group of the 201st Military Base are also deployed here.
  • The 137th Airborne Regiment of the 106th Airborne Division is engaged in combat near Pereyizne.
  • The 80th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 14th Army Corps and the 52nd Artillery Brigade of the Airborne Forces of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation operate on the Kherson direction.

Possible operation situation developments:

  • The command of the enemy “Zapad (West)” Operational Grouping will have to shift the direction of their main strike to the Lyman direction further north into the operational zone of the 20th Combined Arms Army, necessitating the regrouping of the 283rd and 254th Motorized Rifle Regiments of the 144th Motorized Rifle Division.
  • In the near future, on the Lyman direction, the enemy is expected to attempt to stabilize the situation east of Terny, Yampolivka, and in the Serebriansk Forest (towards the Khryashch beach and the campsite on Lake Lyneve). The enemy may also shift the directions of their attacks to the Novovodyane-Makiivka, Ploshchanka-Makiivka, and Chervonopopivka-Nevske directions and will attempt to eliminate the northern part of the Ukrainian Defense Forces’ bridgehead on the Chornyi Zherebets River.
  • The “Tsentr (Center)” Operational Grouping will likely increase its efforts in the general direction of Mayorsk-Pivnichne, with part of its forces targeting either Zalizne or Pivdenne. Simultaneously, they will attack forward positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces along the Kalynove-Stara Mykolaivka and Oleksandropil-Panteleimonivka directions. This development would require additional forces and resources from the enemy’s South-Western Theater of Operations to support the “Tsentr ” Operational Grouping. However, this is unlikely given the concurrent attempts by the “Tsentr” Operational Grouping to turn tactical successes in the Ocheretyne area into operational gains.
  • Either the increased efforts by the enemy’s “Tsentr ” Operational Grouping in the operational area of the 72nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 3rd Army Corps in the general direction of Klishchiivka – Stupochky, or the change in the direction of the offensive of the 102nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division and the 11th Separate Air Assault Brigade from north to south of Ivanivske along the canal, may change in the situation in favor of the enemy;
  • The deployment of the 506th and 589th Motorized Rifle Regiments of the 27th Motorized Rifle Division should be expected on the Pokrovsk direction. They may be introduced into the operation in the offensive area of the 132nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade in the direction of Oleksandropil or Kalynove, or to reinforce the 15th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade in the direction of Novoselivka Persha.
  • The enemy’s military command on the Pokrovsk direction will choose between two options for its further actions: either continue to push the Ukrainian Defense Forces west of the Vovcha and Kazennyi Torets rivers, i.e., delivering the main strike in the direction of Vozdvyzhenka, Novoselivka Persha, Progress, and in the Yasnobrodivka area, or shift the direction of the main strike closer to the Toretsk area of the Ukrainian Defense Forces, i.e., become more active in the direction of Kalynove and Oleksandropil and east of Pivnichne. The deployment of parts of the 27th Motorized Rifle Division indicates a higher likelihood of the second option.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 30.06.24  

Personnel – almost 542,700 (+1140); 

Tanks 8,080 (+7);

Armored combat vehicles – 15,524 (+19); 

Artillery systems – 14,533 (+53);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,110 (+1);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 873 (+2);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 19,643 (+75);

Aircraft – 360 (0);

Helicopters – 326 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 11,584 (+46);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,331 (0);

Boats/ships – 29 (0).


  • According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian forces shelled 8 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 106 towns and villages and 181 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
  • Just this week, Russia has used over 800 guided aerial bombs against Ukraine.
  • On June 29, the Russian army killed 8 residents of Donetsk Oblast and injured 14 others.
  • In the morning of June 30, Russian forces attacked Beryslav with a drone dropping a munition. A 30-year-old man sustained fatal injuries. In addition, at dawn, the Russian army carried out an airstrike with 10 guided bombs on the villages of the Kherson and Beryslav districts. As a result, six apartment buildings and a kindergarten were damaged in Naddnipryanske, and five people were injured.
  • Due to the impact of guided aerial bombs on the “Nova Poshta” terminal in Kharkiv on Sunday, a man was killed, 9 people were injured, including an infant, and another 9 people are being searched for.
  • In Zaporizhzhia, 10 underground schools are planned to be built by the end of the year, with work already underway at five sites.
  • Russians forcibly detain over 14,000 Ukrainian civilians: returning them, unlike military personnel or children, is very difficult, as reported by the Commissioner for Human Rights, Dmytro Lubinets. The ombudsman explained that in the case of civilian Ukrainians, there are no exchanges – only returns. “We cannot exchange them, we do not have any additional leverage over the Russian Federation. We do not even have a legal framework based on which we can conduct this process,” said Dmytro Lubinets.
  • According to commissioner Lubinets, Ukraine is currently working on the return of nearly 20,000 children and “tens of thousands” of Ukrainians considered missing.
  • All regional power companies on Monday, July 1, from 00:00 to 24:00, will apply hourly power outage schedules in Ukraine.
  • The OSCE Parliamentary Assembly adopted a resolution recognizing Russia’s actions as genocide against the Ukrainian people and the necessity of decolonizing the Russian Federation.

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