Центр оборонних стратегій

Russia’s war on Ukraine. 01.07.2024

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational Group of Forces (OTG) “Kharkiv” on the Kharkiv direction, the enemy attacked Ukrainian positions near Vovchansk and Hlyboke 9 times.

In the “Khortytsia” Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) operational zone there were eight engagements on the Kupyansk direction. The occupiers attacked in the areas of Stelmakhivka, Pishchane, and Synkivka, but all attacks were repelled. On the Lyman direction, the aggressor attempted to break through Ukrainian defenses 16 times in the areas of Nevske, Makiivka, Terny, and Torske. Ten attacks were repelled, and fighting continues. On the Siversk direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces successfully repelled 6 enemy attacks near Spirne, Verkhnyokamianske, and Vyimka. On the Kramatorsk direction, the invaders launched 8 assaults on Ukrainian Defense Forces’ positions in the area of Chasiv Yar, 4 of them were repelled. Fighting is ongoing. The occupiers also operated on the Toretsk direction, attempting 6 attacks in the areas of Pivnichne, Pivdenne, and Toretsk, all of which were repelled.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone the situation remains tense on the Pokrovsk direction. The enemy continues attempts to breach the Ukrainian Defense Forces’ lines in the areas of Prohres, Novooleksandrivka, Vozdvyzhenka, Yevhenivka, Novoselivka Persha, and Yasnobrodivka, with a total of 39 attacks as of now. On the Kurakhove direction, the occupiers attacked Defense Forces’ positions 17 times. Defense Forces are strengthening their lines and preventing the enemy from advancing. On the Vremivka direction the enemy pressed in the areas of Vodyane, Urozhaine, Kostyantynivka, and Makarivka, with all attacks repelled. On the Hulyaipole direction, one enemy attack was repelled.  On the Orikhiv direction, three enemy attacks were repelled in the areas of Robotyne and Mala Tokmachka.

General conclusion: 

  • In June, the Russian Armed Forces’ recruitment system was unable to cover daily losses of 1,000 or more personnel.
  • The Russian military command currently prefers sequential offensive operations that achieve tactical gains rather than conducting large-scale offensive operations aimed at significant operational successes through rapid maneuvers.
  • Russian troops have changed their tactics from conducting large infantry (“meat”) assaults to small-scale assaults with groups of 4 to 8 personnel near Klishchiivka.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

  • There were 124 combat engagements on various fronts.
  • On the Kharkiv direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces control all approaches to the aggregate producing plant in central Vovchansk and have surrounded the 83rd Separate Air Assault Brigade at the plant, but are not storming it directly to avoid unnecessary losses.
  • Russian forces have advanced in the southwestern part of Hlyboke, with ongoing fighting in the village.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces have advanced east of Stelmakhivka, while Ukrainian Defense Forces have moved north of Hryhorivka. Fighting continues in the areas of Stelmakhivka and Pishchane.
  • On the Lyman direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces have counterattacked in the wooded areas south of Kreminna and near Terny. Fighting is ongoing near Makiivka, Nevske, and Torske.
  • On the Siversk Direction, Russian forces are advancing towards Spirne, aiming to take control of Rozdolivka and push further west from the settlement. The enemy is also advancing near Verkhnyokamianske and Vyimka.
  • On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces are advancing within the “Kanal” neighborhood, storming Hryhorivka, the “Novyi” neighborhood, and Ivanivske.
  • Ukrainian Defense Forces have retreated from the forest areas near Kalynivka to the western side of the Siversky Donets-Donbas canal, opposite the “Kanal” neighborhood.
  • On the Toretsk direction, an assault unit of the “Veterans” Reconnaissance and Assault Brigade of the “Volunteer Air Assault Corps” advanced through an underground tunnel and captured a major Ukrainian stronghold on the eastern outskirts of Pivnichne. Russian forces have advanced near Zalizne and are operating along Moskovska Street on the eastern outskirts of Zalizne and Pivnichne, continuing assaults near New York.
  • On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces have made slight advances along the southern bank of the Karlivka Reservoir on the eastern outskirts of Karlivka, in the areas of Sokil and Yasnobrodivka, and continued their advance in the areas of Vozdvyzhenka, Novoselivka Persha, Prohress, and Umanske.
  • On the Kurakhove direction, Fighting continues near Krasnohorivka, Paraskoviivka, Kostyantynivka, and Vodyane.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
    • Black Sea: 2 ships, including 1 cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 0 cruise missiles.
    • Azov Sea: 2 ships, including 0 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 0 cruise missiles.
    • Mediterranean Sea: 2 ships, including 2 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 24 cruise missiles.  

Changes in the enemy disposition:

  • The 2nd Separate SOF Brigade operates in the northern part of Vovchansk.
  • Units of the 137th Paratrooper Regiment of the 106th Airborne Division are active on the Siversk direction. The 217th Airborne Regiment of the 98th Airborne Division operates near Chasiv Yar. Units of the 83rd Separate Air Assault Brigade are active in Vovchansk.
  • The Russian command has decided to redeploy units of the 76th Air Assault Division to Krynky in Kherson Oblast, although one battalion of the 104th Air Assault Regiment of the division is concentrated in the Russian Kursk Oblast.

Escalation indicators:

  • Intensification of battles on the Toretsk direction.

Possible operation situation developments:

  • The command of the enemy “Zapad (West)” Operational Grouping will have to shift the direction of their main strike to the Lyman direction further north into the operational zone of the 20th Combined Arms Army, necessitating the regrouping of the 283rd and 254th Motorized Rifle Regiments of the 144th Motorized Rifle Division.
  • In the near future, on the Lyman direction, the enemy is expected to attempt to stabilize the situation east of Terny, Yampolivka, and in the Serebriansk Forest (towards the Khryashch beach and the campsite on Lake Lyneve). The enemy may also shift the directions of their attacks to the Novovodyane-Makiivka, Ploshchanka-Makiivka, and Chervonopopivka-Nevske directions and will attempt to eliminate the northern part of the Ukrainian Defense Forces’ bridgehead on the Chornyi Zherebets River.
  • The “Tsentr (Center)” Operational Grouping will likely increase its efforts in the general direction of Mayorsk-Pivnichne, with part of its forces targeting either Zalizne or Pivdenne. Simultaneously, they will attack forward positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces along the Kalynove-Stara Mykolaivka and Oleksandropil-Panteleimonivka directions. This development would require additional forces and resources from the enemy’s South-Western Theater of Operations to support the “Tsentr ” Operational Grouping. However, this is unlikely given the concurrent attempts by the “Tsentr” Operational Grouping to turn tactical successes in the Ocheretyne area into operational gains.
  • Either the increased efforts by the enemy’s “Tsentr ” Operational Grouping in the operational area of the 72nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 3rd Army Corps in the general direction of Klishchiivka – Stupochky, or the change in the direction of the offensive of the 102nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division and the 11th Separate Air Assault Brigade from north to south of Ivanivske along the canal, may change in the situation in favor of the enemy;
  • The deployment of the 506th and 589th Motorized Rifle Regiments of the 27th Motorized Rifle Division should be expected on the Pokrovsk direction. They may be introduced into the operation in the offensive area of the 132nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade in the direction of Oleksandropil or Kalynove, or to reinforce the 15th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade in the direction of Novoselivka Persha.
  • The enemy’s military command on the Pokrovsk direction will choose between two options for its further actions: either continue to push the Ukrainian Defense Forces west of the Vovcha and Kazennyi Torets rivers, i.e., delivering the main strike in the direction of Vozdvyzhenka, Novoselivka Persha, Progress, and in the Yasnobrodivka area, or shift the direction of the main strike closer to the Toretsk area of the Ukrainian Defense Forces, i.e., become more active in the direction of Kalynove and Oleksandropil and east of Pivnichne. The deployment of parts of the 27th Motorized Rifle Division indicates a higher likelihood of the second option.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 01.07.24  

Personnel – almost 543,810 (+1110); 

Tanks 8,099 (+19);

Armored combat vehicles – 15,550 (+26); 

Artillery systems – 14,599 (+66);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,111 (+1);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 874 (+1);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 19,713 (+70);

Aircraft – 360 (0);

Helicopters – 326 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 11,620 (+36);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,333 (+2);

Boats/ships – 29 (0).


  • According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian forces shelled 12 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 94 towns and villages and 129 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
  • Search and rescue operation continues in Dnipro for 2 people who are likely trapped under the rubble following the Russian missile attack on a multistory residential building on June 28.
  • Three people, including one child, were injured in a Russian rocket attack on June 30 in Kyiv Oblast, and all have been hospitalized.
  • At approximately 19:30 on June 30, Russian forces launched two Iskander-K cruise missiles at Kyiv, both of which were successfully destroyed by air defense forces. Recently, the occupiers had been predominantly attacking Ukraine at night, but this time they struck in the evening, when many people were outside enjoying a warm holiday evening.
  • Russian occupation forces shelled the Volnovakha and Pokrovsk districts of Donetsk Oblast on Monday: one person was killed, and seven others were injured.
  • On the morning of July 1, the occupiers shelled the town of Ukrainsk in Donetsk Oblast with Uragan rockets, killing two women aged 65 and 70, and injuring eight others.
  • On Monday, July 1, Russian forces shelled Kherson from the temporarily occupied left bank of the Dnipro, injuring two women.
  • On July 1, the Russian army hit a house in Antonivka, Kherson Oblast, with artillery, injuring a 97-year-old woman.
  • Nine children were returned to Ukrainian-controlled territory from temporarily occupied communities in Kherson Oblast. These are four families, raising four boys and five girls. The youngest child is 8 months old, and the oldest is 17 years old.
  • In temporarily occupied Kakhovka in Kherson Oblast, Russian occupation authorities kidnapped journalist and editor of the “Kakhovska Zorya” newspaper Zhanna Kyselova for the second time. The occupiers abducted the journalist from her apartment on June 27, 2024. Currently, the whereabouts of Zhanna Kyselova are unknown.

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