Центр оборонних стратегій

Russia’s war on Ukraine. 02.07.2024

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational Group of Forces (OTG) “Kharkiv” on the Kharkiv direction, the enemy continued offensive (assault) actions supported by aviation. In total, 13 combat clashes occurred in the areas of Lyptsi, Vovchansk, and Hlyboke.

In the “Khortytsia” Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) operational zone on the Kupyansk direction, there were 17 combat clashes in one day. The Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled enemy attacks in the areas of Synkivka, Stepova Novoselivka, Berestove, Pishchane, and Stelmakhivka. On the Lyman direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces thwarted 16 enemy assault actions in the areas of Hrekivka, Makiivka, Nevske, and Torske.  On the Siversk direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 21 attacks in the areas of Bilohorivka in the Luhansk region, Verkhnyokamianske, Ivano-Dariivka, Spirne, and Vyimka. On the Kramatorsk direction, Ukrainian defenders stopped 7 enemy attempts to breach the defense in the areas of Klishchiivka and Novyi. On the Toretsk direction, the enemy conducted 28 attacks in the areas of Toretsk, Pivnichne, Pivdenne, Zalizne, and New York.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Pokrovsk direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 49 enemy attacks near Novooleksandrivka, Vozdvyzhenka, Yevhenivka, Novoselivka Persha, Sokil, Voskhod, Yasnobrodivka, and Netaylove. On the Kurakhove direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold back the enemy in the areas of Heorhiivka, Krasnohorivka, Paraskoviivka, and Kostyantynivka, where the enemy attempted to break through the Ukrainian defense 10 times.  On the Vremivka direction, the enemy conducted 14 assaults on the Ukrainian Defense Forces positions in the areas of Vodyane, Makarivka, and Urozhaine.  On the Orikhiv direction, there were 3 combat clashes in the areas of Novodanylivka, Mala Tokmachka, and Robotyne.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG, on the Prydniprovskiy direction, the occupiers continue to attempt to dislodge Ukrainian Defense Forces from their positions on the bridgeheads. All 9 Russian attacks failed.

General conclusion: 

  • The enemy continues to intensify its efforts on the Toretsk and Pokrovsk directions with the aim of breaking through the tactical defense zone, actively using artillery and aviation.
  • The command of the enemy’s “Tsentr (Center)” Operational Grouping has introduced additional forces and resources on the Toretsk direction;
  • The enemy’s strike group on the Toretsk direction has its immediate objective of advancing to the area of New York and to the Zalizne – Pivnichne line.
  • The command of the “Tsentr” Operational Grouping is shifting the direction of its main strike from the eastern (frontal) sector of the Toretsk direction to the southern (flanking) sector, which is closer to the main strike direction of the 132nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps on both sides of the Kostyantynivka – Yasynuvata road.
  • The ” Tsentr ” operational grouping does not have the capability to sharply increase the intensity of combat operations on the Toretsk direction. The intensification of actions in this direction has led to a slowdown in the advance on the Pokrovsk direction.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

  • There were 189 combat engagements on various fronts.
  • On the Kharkiv direction, Russian forces continued their offensive in the areas of Lyptsi and Hlyboke.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces are fighting for control of Stepova Novoselivka, advancing to within 1 km of its outskirts, and have captured half of Stelmakhivka. Battles continued near Synkivka, Berestove, Stepova Novoselivka, Stelmakhivka, and Pishchane.
  • On the Lyman direction, Russian forces advanced east of Makiivka. Battles occurred near Hrekivka, Nevske, Makiivka, Torske, and Terny.
  • On the Siversk Direction, Russian forces captured the southern part of Spirne, with ongoing battles on its outskirts, and advanced in the areas of Bilohorivka, Verkhnyokamianske, Ivano-Dariivka, and Vyimka.
  • On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces advanced northeast of Kalynivka, reaching the right bank of the Siversky Donets – Donbas canal near Kalynivka. Battles occurred near Chasiv Yar, the “Novyi” neighborhood, and Klishchiivka.
  • On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces continued attacks near Toretsk, Pivnichne, Pivdenne, and New York, with up to 4 assault groups attacking in the Mayorsk-Pivnichne and Shumy-Pivnichne directions. In the general direction towards New York, the enemy deployed up to a battalion, and towards the intersection of Nova and Yunosti streets in Pivnichne, up to two assault companies.
  • On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces advanced north and south of Sokil, south of Netaylove, captured Novopokrovske, and advanced towards Voskhod and Yevhenivka. Battles continued in the areas of Novooleksandrivka, Vozdvyzhenka, Yevhenivka, Voskhod, Prohres, Novoselivka Persha, Sokil, and Netaylove.
  • On the Kurakhove direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled an enemy attack south of Novomykhailivka. Russian forces attacked in the areas of Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Paraskoviivka, Kostyantynivka, and Vodyane.
  • On the Vremivka direction, battles continued in the areas of Urozhaine, Staromayorske, Makarivka, and Charivne.
  • On the Orikhiv direction, positional battles continued in the areas of Robotyne, Verbove, Novodanylivka, and Mala Tokmachka.
  • In the Prydniprovskiy direction, positional battles continued on the left bank of Kherson Oblast and on the islands of the Dnipro River delta.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
    • o   Black Sea: 7 ships, including 1 cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 0 cruise missiles.
    • o   Azov Sea: 2 ships, including 0 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 0 cruise missiles.
    • o   Mediterranean Sea: 2 ships, including 2 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 24 cruise missiles.  

Changes in the enemy disposition:

  • Units of the “Veterans” assault brigade continue to operate near Pivnichne.
  • Units of the 5th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps are active in the area of Velyka Novosilka, while the 57th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 5th Army is engaged near Vuhledar.
  • Units of the 10th Separate SOF Brigade are operating on the islands in the Dnipro River delta, while units of the 61st Separate Marines Brigade of the Northern Fleet are active on Nestyha Island.

Possible operation situation developments:

  • The command of the enemy “Zapad (West)” Operational Grouping will have to shift the direction of their main strike to the Lyman direction further north into the operational zone of the 20th Combined Arms Army, necessitating the regrouping of the 283rd and 254th Motorized Rifle Regiments of the 144th Motorized Rifle Division.
  • In the near future, on the Lyman direction, the enemy is expected to attempt to stabilize the situation east of Terny, Yampolivka, and in the Serebriansk Forest (towards the Khryashch beach and the campsite on Lake Lyneve). The enemy may also shift the directions of their attacks to the Novovodyane-Makiivka, Ploshchanka-Makiivka, and Chervonopopivka-Nevske directions and will attempt to eliminate the northern part of the Ukrainian Defense Forces’ bridgehead on the Chornyi Zherebets River.
  • Either the increased efforts by the enemy’s “Tsentr ” Operational Grouping in the operational area of the 72nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 3rd Army Corps in the general direction of Klishchiivka – Stupochky, or the change in the direction of the offensive of the 102nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division and the 11th Separate Air Assault Brigade from north to south of Ivanivske along the canal, may change in the situation in favor of the enemy.
  • If the 132nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps captures Kalynove and reaches the road south of Stara Mykolaivka, the enemy will increase pressure on New York from both the south and the east, primarily in the direction of Yuryivka and Oleksandropil. The main forces of the newly formed 27th Motorized Rifle Division of the 2nd Guards Army – the 506th and 589th Motorized Rifle Regiments – will be used for this purpose. These forces are being deployed to the right of the 132nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade’s assault zone and in the area of Mayorsk.
  • The enemy’s military command on the Pokrovsk direction will shift the focus of their main attack closer to the Toretsk district of the Ukrainian Defense Forces, becoming more active in the direction of Kalynove and Oleksandropil, as well as east of Pivnichne.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 02.07.24  

Personnel – almost 545,090 (+1280); 

Tanks 8,107 (+8);

Armored combat vehicles – 15,566 (+16); 

Artillery systems – 14,655 (+56);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,114 (+3);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 874 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 19,787 (+74);

Aircraft – 360 (0);

Helicopters – 326 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 11,641 (+21);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 2, 2335 (+2);

Boats/ships – 29 (0).


  • According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian forces shelled 10 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 103 towns and villages and 136 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
  • During the past day, Russians conducted 31 attacks on Sumy Oblast, using FPV drones and dropping VOG grenades and mines, resulting in 92 explosions.
  • In Kharkiv Oblast, Russian forces shelled a wheat field in the village of Karasivka in the Zolochiv community, causing a fire that rescuers quickly localized to prevent the destruction of the entire 110-hectare field.
  • On July 2, around 11:30 AM, Russian military forces shelled Kherson with rocket artillery, killing a state institution employee and injuring ten others.
  • A Russian strike on Nikopol, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, on July 2 resulted in the deaths of two women, with nine others injured, including boys aged 9 and 17. In the Pokrovsk community of the Nikopol district, two people were killed by enemy artillery shelling.
  • Around 4:00 PM on July 2, Russian forces conducted airstrikes on the industrial zones in the Nemyshlyansky and Industrial districts of Kharkiv, damaging enterprise buildings and injuring four people, including two children.
  • Russian forces dropped an air bomb on Selydove in Donetsk Oblast on Tuesday, killing a 63-year-old woman and injuring two others.
  • A 58-year-old man was injured by a mine in the village of Charivne in the Beryslav district of Kherson Oblast, sustaining a mine-explosive injury and traumatic amputation of the foot. Medics assess his condition as moderate.

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