Центр оборонних стратегій

Russia’s war on Ukraine. 03.07.2024

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational Group of Forces (OTG) “Kharkiv” on the Kharkiv direction, the enemy, with aviation support, stormed the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces units in the areas of Vovchansk and Hlyboke 6 times.

In the “Khortytsia” Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) operational zone the enemy attacked nine times on the Kupyansk direction, intensifying efforts near Synkivka, where 5 attacks were repelled. Ukrainian Defense Forces held back two enemy attempts to advance near Stelmakhivka. On the Lyman direction, Russian forces attacked Ukrainian Defense Forces positions 16 times in the areas of 4 different settlements. The enemy is concentrating efforts near Hrekivka and Terny, attacking in the areas of Nevske and Makiivka. On the Siversk direction, the enemy tried 5 times with assault actions to dislodge the Defense Forces from positions in the areas of Ivano-Dariivka, Spirne, and Vyimka but failed. On the Kramatorsk direction, the invaders’ 8 attempts to advance near Chasiv Yar and Klishchiivka failed. Fighting continues in the areas of Kalynivka, Ivanivske, and Chasiv Yar. On the Toretsk direction, the situation is tense; the occupiers attacked 24 times near Deliivka, Toretsk, Pivdenne, New York, and Pivnichne.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone the enemy is intensely attacking onthe Pokrovsk direction, with 43 attacks. The highest activity of Russian occupiers remains from the area of Ocheretyne, from where the enemy is trying to break into the battle formations in different directions. Thirty-one attacks were repelled, and fighting continues near Yevhenivka and Novooleksandrivka. On the Kurakhove direction, there are 11 combat clashes. The occupiers unsuccessfully tried to advance in the areas of Heorhiivka and Paraskoviivka. Fighting continues near Krasnohorivka.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG, on the Prydniprovskiy direction 4 enemy assaults on the left bank of the Dnipro River failed.

General conclusion: 

  • Russian forces conduct sabotage and reconnaissance operations near the international border in Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts.
  • Russian forces are beginning to assault Chasiv Yar from the Toretsk direction and are advancing towards Toretsk.
  • Russian forces are attempting to advance on the southern flank of the Ukrainian Defense Forces near Chasiv Yar from the Toretsk area. If the enemy can expand its bridgehead in the Shumy-Pivdenne-Pivnichne-Toretsk area, it will be able to threaten Chasiv Yar from the south, complementing the offensive efforts north of Chasiv Yar near Kalynivka.
  • The continuation of the offensive south and southeast of Chasiv Yar, particularly near Klishchiivka, Andriivka, and Kurdyumivka, indicates the intentions of the Russian military command to maintain the possibility of operating against the southern flank of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in the Chasiv Yar area.
  • The enemy’s advancement in Mayorsk has allowed it to establish positions on the eastern bank of the Siversky Donets-Donbas canal, enabling progress towards Chasiv Yar from the south along one bank of the canal.
  • The grouping of enemy forces in the Toretsk area consists of lower-quality forces of the 1st Army Corps and territorial troops, which will find it difficult to act professionally and tactically competently.
  • Russian forces on the Kherson direction are experiencing a shortage of artillery shells.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

  • There were 136 combat engagements on various fronts.
  • On the Kharkiv direction, Russian forces advanced within Vovchansk, specifically units of the 2nd Separate SOF Brigade advanced along Soborna Street. The enemy crossed the Siversky Donets River east of Buhruvatka. Fighting continued in the area of Hlyboke, Lyptsi, and within Vovchansk. The enemy is deploying reinforcements – three assault groups from the 138th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 6th Combined Arms Army.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces approached within 1 km of Stelmakhivka and advanced to the O131306 Svatove-Makiivka highway east of Makiivka. Fighting continued near Synkivka, Berestove, Pishchane, and Stepova Novoselivka
  • On the Lyman direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked in the forest west of Kreminna and advanced 400 meters. The enemy attacked near Makiivka, Nevske, Hrekivka, Terny, and Torske.
  • On the Siversk Direction, Russian forces continued offensive actions in the areas of Vyimka, Ivano-Dariivka, Verkhnyokamianske, and Bilohorivka. Fighting for Spirne continues.
  • On the Kramatorsk direction, the enemy captured the “Kanal” neighborhood. Russian forces continued their offensive near Ivanivske and Klishchiivka, partially occupying the western part of Kalynivka along Lisova Street.
  • On the Toretsk direction, the enemy is increasing the intensity of fire and aviation strikes on the Ukrainian Defense Forces’ positions on the outskirts of New York, with fighting continuing in the southern part of the village. The enemy is advancing on Kalynove and will try to break through to Oleksandropil, attacking from the direction of Shyroka Balka. Russian forces continued their offensive in the Toretsk area, near Druzhba, Pivdenne, Pivnichne, Zalizne, and Shumy.
  • On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces advanced within Sokil, northeast of Novooleksandrivka, south of Voskhod, north of Karlivka, more than 1.5 km northwest of Novopokrovske, and south of Novoselivka Persha. Fighting continued near Vozdvyzhenka, Novooleksandrivka, Yevhenivka, Novoselivka Persha, Lozuvatske, Sokil, Voskhod, Umanske, Yasnobrodivka, and Netaylove.
  • On the Kurakhove direction, Russian forces continued their offensive in the areas of Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Kostyantynivka, Paraskoviivka, and Vodyane.
  • On the Vremivka direction, Russian forces advanced north of Staromayorske. Positional fighting continued in the areas of Makarivka and Urozhaine.
  • On the Orikhiv direction, fighting continues near Robotyne, Novodanylivka, Mala Tokmachka, and Verbove.
  • On the Prydniprovskiy direction, fighting continued on the left bank of Kherson Oblast in the area of Krynky.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
    • Black Sea: 1 ship, including 1 cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 0 cruise missiles.
    • Azov Sea: 3 ships, including 0 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 0 cruise missiles.
    • Mediterranean Sea: 2 ships, including 2 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 24 cruise missiles.  

Changes in the enemy disposition:

  • Units of the 488th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 144th Motorized Rifle Division of the 20th Combined Arms Army and the 37th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 67th Motorized Rifle Division of the 25th Combined Arms Army are operating east of Terny.
  • UAV units of the “Night Wolves” from the Abkhaz “International Brigade ‘Pyatnashka’,” which is a unit of the 100th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps, are active near Chasiv Yar.

Possible operation situation developments:

  • The command of the enemy “Zapad (West)” Operational Grouping will have to shift the direction of their main strike to the Lyman direction further north into the operational zone of the 20th Combined Arms Army, necessitating the regrouping of the 283rd and 254th Motorized Rifle Regiments of the 144th Motorized Rifle Division.
  • In the near future, on the Lyman direction, the enemy is expected to attempt to stabilize the situation east of Terny, Yampolivka, and in the Serebriansk Forest (towards the Khryashch beach and the campsite on Lake Lyneve). The enemy may also shift the directions of their attacks to the Novovodyane-Makiivka, Ploshchanka-Makiivka, and Chervonopopivka-Nevske directions and will attempt to eliminate the northern part of the Ukrainian Defense Forces’ bridgehead on the Chornyi Zherebets River.
  • Either the increased efforts by the enemy’s “Tsentr ” Operational Grouping in the operational area of the 72nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 3rd Army Corps in the general direction of Klishchiivka – Stupochky, or the change in the direction of the offensive of the 102nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division and the 11th Separate Air Assault Brigade from north to south of Ivanivske along the canal, may change in the situation in favor of the enemy.
  • If the 132nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps captures Kalynove and reaches the road south of Stara Mykolaivka, the enemy will increase pressure on New York from both the south and the east, primarily in the direction of Yuryivka and Oleksandropil. The main forces of the newly formed 27th Motorized Rifle Division of the 2nd Guards Army – the 506th and 589th Motorized Rifle Regiments – will be used for this purpose. These forces are being deployed to the right of the 132nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade’s assault zone and in the area of Mayorsk.
  • The enemy’s military command on the Pokrovsk direction will shift the focus of their main attack closer to the Toretsk district of the Ukrainian Defense Forces, becoming more active in the direction of Kalynove and Oleksandropil, as well as east of Pivnichne.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 03.07.24  

Personnel – almost 546,270 (+1180); 

Tanks 8,123 (+16);

Armored combat vehicles – 15,583 (+17); 

Artillery systems – 14,712 (+57);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,115 (+1);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 876 (+2);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 19,850 (+63);

Aircraft – 360 (0);

Helicopters – 326 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 11,668 (+27);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,336 (+1);

Boats/ships – 29 (0).


  • According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian forces shelled 11 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 122 towns and villages and 202 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
  • During the past day, Russian military struck Zaporizhzhia Oblast 386 times. Eight town and villages came under enemy fire. One man was injured due to a Russian attack on the Polohy district of the Oblast.
  • On the morning of July 3, 2024, the enemy launched an attack with three Iskander-K cruise missiles, four Kh-59 guided air missiles, and five Shahed-type attack UAVs. The main direction of the attack was Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Ukrainian air defense forces shot down 11 aerial targets: one Iskander-K cruise missile, four Kh-59 guided air missiles, five Shahed-131/136 attack UAVs, and one Orlan-10 UAV.
  • At least five people were killed and 53 were injured as a result of Russian strikes on the city of Dnipro on the morning of July 3. Four of them are in serious condition.
  • On July 3, Russian forces attacked the village of Ruska Lozova in Kharkiv Oblast two times. At about 2:05 AM, they struck with two S-400 missiles, injuring a 65-year-old woman and an 80-year-old man, and damaging at least 10 private houses. At 9:52 AM, the enemy struck with a KAB, causing a private house to catch fire. People may be trapped under the rubble. It is known that two civilian men were injured, one of whom is in serious condition.
  • At 4:05 PM, at least three KAB strikes were recorded in the Kyiv district of Kharkiv. The number of injured due to the strike in the residential area of Kharkiv is 14, including a two-week-old infant.
  • In Poltava Oblast, one person was killed and three were injured as a result of a Russian strike. One of the injured is in serious condition.
  • In June 2024, Ukraine imported 858.4 thousand MWh of electricity. This is 6% more than the total import for the entire year of 2023, which was 806.4 thousand MWh. Additionally, this is the largest monthly import volume in the last 10 years.

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