Центр оборонних стратегій

Russia’s war on Ukraine. 04.07.2024

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational Group of Forces (OTG) “Kharkiv” on the Kharkiv direction, the enemy continued offensive actions with air support. In total, there were 15 combat clashes in the areas of Vovchansk, Hlyboke, and Lyptsi.

In the “Khortytsia” Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) operational zone on the Kupyansk direction, there were 8 combat clashes. The Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled enemy attacks in the areas of Synkivka and Stelmakhivka. On the Lyman direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces thwarted 32 enemy attacks in the areas of the settlements of Hrekivka, Makiivka, Nevske, Terny, and the Serebriansk Forest.  On the Siversk direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 3 attacks in the areas of Verkhnyokamianske and Vyimka.  On the Kramatorsk direction, Ukrainian defenders stopped 8 enemy attempts to breach the defense in the areas of Klishchiivka, Kalynivka, Ivanivske, and Chasiv Yar. On the Toretsk direction, the aggressor significantly intensified its actions, conducting 25 attacks, particularly in the areas of Dyliivka, Toretsk, Pivnichne, and New York.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone on the Pokrovsk direction, the Defense Forces repelled 37 enemy attacks near the settlements of Kalynove, Novooleksandrivka, Vozdvyzhenka, Yevhenivka, Prohres, Yasnobrodivka, Umanske, and Karlivka. On the Kurakhove direction, the Defense Forces continue to hold back the enemy in the areas of Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Paraskoviivka, and Kostyantynivka, where the enemy attempted to breach the Ukrainian defense 16 times. On the Vremivka direction, the enemy conducted 5 attacks in the areas of Vodyane and Urozhaine. On the Orikhiv direction, there were 9 combat clashes near Robotyne and Shcherbaky.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG, on the Prydniprovskiy direction, the occupiers continue to try to dislodge units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces from positions on the bridgeheads. All 3 Russian attacks failed.

General conclusion: 

  • On the Kupyansk direction, enemy forces may reach the banks of the Oskil River by the end of the summer, but they will not be able to cross it, let alone capture Kupyansk due to high losses, the inability to provide necessary replenishment for its troops, and a lack of engineering equipment.
  • The enemy may capture Chasiv Yar in the second half of the summer, but with huge losses. Without significant reinforcement of the aggressor’s grouping near Chasiv Yar from other directions, the Ukrainian Defense Forces will be able to hold the city at least until October or winter.
  • In the Toretsk area, the Ukrainian Defense Forces have adopted a mobile defense tactic, gradually retreating while constantly counterattacking, which slows the enemy’s advance and inflicts significant losses on the enemy forces.
  • The enemy has achieved the greatest success on the Pokrovsk direction, with serious chances to cut the Pokrovsk-Kramatorsk highway, secure it, and launch an offensive to the north towards Kostyantynivka and Kramatorsk-Slovyansk, but not earlier than the end of July to mid-August.
  • The combat capability of the enemy’s “Vostok (East)” Operational Grouping in Zaporizhzhia Oblast is steadily declining due to the constant redeployment of combat-ready troops to other operational directions, so serious offensive actions on the Vremivka and Orikhiv directions in the summer should not be expected.
  • The assessment of the forces of the parties shows that the RF Armed Forces have engaged more than 75% of all available forces in combat operations, while the Ukrainian Defense Forces have engaged only 33%, with the Ukrainian side maintaining reserves, including those arriving after training in EU countries (over 10,000 personnel). The enemy has practically no reserves. As shown by the Ukrainian strikes near Terny, in the Serebriansk Forest, and in the Chasiv Yar area, instead of reserves, the Russian military command simply redeploys troops from other directions, thereby worsening their situation.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

  • There were 161 combat engagements on various fronts.
  • On the Kharkiv direction, Russian forces continue conducting sabotage and reconnaissance activities along the border with Sumy Oblast. Ukrainian Defense Forces artillery struck concentrations of small Russian units near Zhuravka in Sumy Oblast (northeast of the city of Sumy and two kilometers from the border with the Russian Kursk Oblast). Russian forces do not have sufficient strength in this area for large-scale offensive operations.
  • Ukrainian Defense Forces advanced along Soborna Street in central Vovchansk. Fighting continued near and within Vovchansk, as well as near Hlyboke and Lyptsi.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces advanced southeast of Novoyehorivka.
  • The enemy made slight progress towards Makiivka, but Ukrainian Defense Forces conducted two counterattacks in this area, halting their advance. The enemy attacked east of Stelmakhivka and near Synkivka, Petropavlivka, and Ivanivka.
  • On the Lyman direction, the enemy attacked near Nevske, Hrekivka, Terny, Torske, and in the Serebriansk Forest.
  • On the Siversk Direction, Russian forces attack near Spirne, Bilohorivka, Vyimka, and Ivano-Dariivka.
  • On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces are trying to capture the “Novyi” neighborhood and attack near Kalynivka, Ivanivske, and Klishchiivka.
  • Ukrainian Defense Forces attacked Russian positions along the tree line south of Klishchiivka and regained control of these positions.
  • On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces advanced more than 1 km to the eastern outskirts of Druzhba, capturing new positions along Sadova Street, advanced approximately 1.8 km west along Kalynova Street to the eastern outskirts of the Pivnichne-Druzhba area, and to the southeastern outskirts of Pivnichne, to the southern part of New York, captured part of Yuriivka, and attacked near Zalizne, Pivdenne, Pivnichne, Dyliivka, and Bila Hora.
  • On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces advanced west along the T0511 highway from Ocheretyne to Myrnohrad, northeast of Prohres, in the fields near the Karlivka Reservoir southwest of Yasnobrodivka and are attacking Ukrainian Defense Forces positions on both banks of the Karlivka Reservoir, including the southern bank near Karlivka (southwest of Avdiivka) and the northern bank near Yasnobrodivka. They struck areas around Kalynove, Panteleimonivka, Vozdvyzhenka, Novooleksandrivka, Prohres, Yevhenivka, Novoselivka Persha, Umanske, and Yasnobrodivka.
  • On the Kurakhove direction, Russian forces advanced northwest along Akademika Koroleva Street in central Krasnohorivka, along Michurina, Vidrodzhennia, Gagarina, Kalynova, Suvorova, Chkalova, Chekhova, and Matrosova Streets, up to 2 km in the Vuhledar area, and attacked in the areas of Heorhiivka, Paraskoviivka, Kostyantynivka, and Vodiane.
  • On the Vremivka direction, Russian forces advanced in the fields north and west of Staromayorske, up to 700 meters towards Makarivka, and attacked near Urozhaine.
  • On the Orikhiv direction, Russian forces carried out attacks near Robotyne, Novodanylivka, Novopokrovka, Shcherbaky, and Novoandriivka.
  • On the Prydniprovskiy direction, fighting continued on the left bank of Kherson Oblast in the area of Krynky. Ukrainian Defense Forces struck the command post of the enemy’s “Dnepr” Operational Grouping in Henichesk, Kherson Oblast, with a missile strike.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
    • Black Sea: 1 ship, including 1 cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 0 cruise missiles.
    • Azov Sea: 1 ship, including 0 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 0 cruise missiles.
    • Mediterranean Sea: 2 ships, including 2 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 24 cruise missiles.  

Changes in the enemy disposition:

  • Units of the 79th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 18th Motorized Rifle Division of the 11th Army Corps operate near Vovchansk. 
  • Units of the 433rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 27th Motorized Rifle Division of the 2nd Army operate near Sokil. 
  • The 64th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 35th Army and the 39th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 68th Army Corps operate on the Vremivka direction. 
  • The 392nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 19th Motorized Rifle Division of the 58th Army is engaged in combat operations on the Orikhiv direction. 
  • The number of invading enemy forces in the “Southwestern Theater of Operations” is estimated at 657,000 personnel.

Possible operation situation developments:

  • The command of the enemy “Zapad (West)” Operational Grouping will have to shift the direction of their main strike to the Lyman direction further north into the operational zone of the 20th Combined Arms Army, necessitating the regrouping of the 283rd and 254th Motorized Rifle Regiments of the 144th Motorized Rifle Division.
  • In the near future, on the Lyman direction, the enemy is expected to attempt to stabilize the situation east of Terny, Yampolivka, and in the Serebriansk Forest (towards the Khryashch beach and the campsite on Lake Lyneve). The enemy may also shift the directions of their attacks to the Novovodyane-Makiivka, Ploshchanka-Makiivka, and Chervonopopivka-Nevske directions and will attempt to eliminate the northern part of the Ukrainian Defense Forces’ bridgehead on the Chornyi Zherebets River.
  • Russian forces will soon begin attacks across the Siversky Donets-Donbas canal in central Chasiv Yar from their positions in the “Kanal” neighborhhod.
  • Either the increased efforts by the enemy’s “Tsentr ” Operational Grouping in the operational area of the 72nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 3rd Army Corps in the general direction of Klishchiivka – Stupochky, or the change in the direction of the offensive of the 102nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division and the 11th Separate Air Assault Brigade from north to south of Ivanivske along the canal, may change in the situation in favor of the enemy.
  • If the 132nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps captures Kalynove and reaches the road south of Stara Mykolaivka, the enemy will increase pressure on New York from both the south and the east, primarily in the direction of Yuryivka and Oleksandropil. The main forces of the newly formed 27th Motorized Rifle Division of the 2nd Guards Army – the 506th and 589th Motorized Rifle Regiments – will be used for this purpose. These forces are being deployed to the right of the 132nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade’s assault zone and in the area of Mayorsk.
  • The enemy’s military command on the Pokrovsk direction will shift the focus of their main attack closer to the Toretsk district of the Ukrainian Defense Forces, becoming more active in the direction of Kalynove and Oleksandropil, as well as east of Pivnichne.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 04.07.24  

Personnel – almost 547,470 (+1200); 

Tanks 8,132 (+9);

Armored combat vehicles – 15,600 (+17); 

Artillery systems – 14,777 (+65);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,115 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 878 (+2);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 19,923 (+73);

Aircraft – 360 (0);

Helicopters – 326 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 11,694 (+26);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,342 (+6);

Boats/ships – 29 (0).

Humanitarian+general:

  • According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian forces shelled 11 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 103 towns and villages and 172 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
  • On the night of July 4, Russian occupiers attacked Ukraine with 22 Shahed-131/136 drones. Air defense managed to shoot down 21 enemy drones over Kyiv, Chernihiv, Zhytomyr, Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, and Poltava Oblasts.
  • In Poltava Oblast, one person was killed and three were injured as a result of a Russian strike. One of the injured is in serious condition.
  • As a result of Russian artillery shelling in Nikopol, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, on the afternoon of July 4th, 7 people were injured.
  • On the night of July 4, one of the Russian Shahed drones hit an infrastructure facility in Chernihiv Oblast, leaving nearly 6,000 consumers without electricity.
  • At around 5 a.m. on July 4, Russian forces launched an airstrike on the village of Hlushkivka in Kharkiv Oblast, injuring three women and one man.
  • In the evening of July 3 and the morning of July 4, Russian forces attacked the Nikopol district in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast with kamikaze drones and heavy artillery, injuring a woman and damaging infrastructure, a gas pipeline, a power line, shops, and a sports club.
  • Russian occupation forces launched a missile strike on the civilian port infrastructure in the city of Chornomorsk in Odesa Oblast, killing one person and injuring seven others.
  • In the afternoon of July 4, Russian forces carried out a combined strike on the cities of Novohrodivka and Ukrainsk in Donetsk Oblast, injuring 10 people, including five children.
  • On July 4, Russian military attacked two civilians in Kherson with a drone. The explosive device dropped from the drone injured two men, aged 61 and 65.

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