Центр оборонних стратегій

Russia’s war on Ukraine. 05.07.2024

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational Group of Forces (OTG) “Kharkiv” on the Kharkiv direction, the enemy, supported by aviation, carried out 18 attacks near Sotnytskyi Kozachok, Hlyboke, Lyptsi, and Vovchansk. Units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces successfully repelled 14 enemy assaults; combat continues.

In the “Khortytsia” Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) operational zone on the enemy attacked Ukrainian military positions four times the Kupyansk direction near Synkivka, Stelmakhivka, and Novoselivka, without success. On the Lyman direction, Russian occupiers attempted to advance 14 times near Hrekivka, Makiivka, and Terny. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 13 attacks, and fighting continues near Nevske. On the Siversk direction, the enemy attacked eight times near Bilohorivka, Verkhnyokamianske, and Vyimka. On the Kramatorsk direction, the occupiers conducted 14 assaults near Kalynivka, Hryhorivka, and Klishchiivka. Eleven attacks were unsuccessful for the enemy; battles are ongoing. On the Toretsk direction, the situation is tense. The occupiers unsuccessfully attacked 18 times near Pivnichne, Toretsk, and New York.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone, the intensity of combat on the Pokrovsk direction remains high, with the number of clashes rising to 33. The occupiers are increasing pressure on Ukrainian defensive positions near Novooleksandrivka, Vozdvyzhenka, Kalynove, Prohres, Lozuvatske, Novoselivka Persha, Yevhenivka, and Yasnobrodivka. Twenty-three enemy attacks were repelled, and fighting continues. On the Kurakhove direction, 10 clashes occurred. The occupiers unsuccessfully tried to advance near Krasnohorivka, Nevelske, and Paraskoviivka. On the Vremivka direction, the aggressor launched seven assaults on the forward defense line near Vodyane and Makarivka.  On the Orikhiv direction, there were two enemy attacks near Mala Tokmachka and Robotyne.

In the operational zone of the “Odesa” OSG, on the Prydniprovskiy direction, two attempts by the enemy to capture Ukrainian Defense Forces positions near Krynky failed.

General conclusion: 

  • After a series of successful counterattacks by the Ukrainian Defense Forces on the Lyman direction in the southern part of the enemy’s “Zapad (West)” Operational Grouping’s operational zone, its command shifted the focus of its efforts from the 25th Combined Arms Army’s offensive direction to the 3rd Motorized Rifle Division of the 20th Combined Arms Army in the Ploshchanka-Makiivka area, targeting the northern part of the Ukrainian Defense Forces’ bridgehead on the Chorny Zherebets River.
  • The enemy on the Lyman direction has the capability to periodically create significant advantages in forces and resources on selected sections and directions, despite having suffered significant losses in previous battles. It will be very challenging for the Ukrainian Defense Forces to hold such an extensive front along the Chorny Zherebets River, especially given the enemy’s firepower and air superiority.
  • The command of the enemy’s “Yug (South)” Operational Grouping is deploying its operational reserve in the Chasiv Yar area, consisting of the 4th Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Army Corps. Possible actions from the Ivanivske area and to its southeast include either storming the city or intensifying efforts along the canal from north to south to collapse the “Tavriya” OSG defense along the Klishchiivka-Andriivka line.
  • The situation on the Kramatorsk direction shows that the command of the enemy’s “Yug” Operational Grouping continues to hope to take part in the battle for Toretsk, as it is concentrating its main efforts on the southwestern direction.
  • Throughout May, the enemy used 475 missiles of various types to strike targets in Ukraine. Of the 349 strike UAVs, the Defense Forces’ air defense shot down 326, and of the 82 cruise missiles, 66 were intercepted. None of the Kh-47 “Kinzhal” missiles were shot down. The enemy avoided strikes on targets covered by Patriot PAC-2/3 air defense systems.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

  • There were 130 combat engagements on various fronts.
  • On the Kharkiv direction, an enemy sabotage and reconnaissance group entered the village of Sotnytskyi Kozachok, and the Ukrainian Defense Forces are taking measures to neutralize it.
  • The enemy attacked west of Krasne towards Hlyboke, but the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled the attack. Intense fighting continues in Vovchansk.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces advanced up to 500 meters in the wooded areas south of Vilshana towards Petropavlivka. Fighting continued near Synkivka, Stepova Novoselivka, and Stelmakhivka.
  • On the Lyman direction, the 3rd Motorized Rifle Division of the 20th Combined Arms Army managed to break into the eastern outskirts of Makiivka, securing the area around the school and taking control of the road intersections leading to Hrekivka and Nevske on the left bank of the Chornyi Zherebets River. Fighting also continued near Hrekivka, Nevske, Terny, and in the area of the Serebriansk Forest.
  • On the Siversk Direction, Russian forces advanced in the areas of Verkhnyokamianske and Vyimka.
  • On the Kramatorsk direction, The Ukrainian Defense Forces withdrew from the “Kanal” neighborhood in Chasiv Yar because it was impractical to hold it, as it was completely destroyed and the positions were obliterated.
  • The 98th Airborne Division deployed all three of its regiments – the 217th, 299th, and 331st Airborne Regiments – significantly intensifying their efforts in this direction and fully taking control of the “Kanal” neighborhood. Units of the 11th Separate Air Assault Brigade and partially the 102nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division also participated in the attacks. The enemy occupied positions on both sides of O. Koshovyi Street, including the area near the bridge over the canal, and their advanced units secured positions in the forests to the north and south of it.
  • Russian forces continued offensive actions near Hryhorivka, Kalynivka, Ivanivske, and Klishchiivka.
  • On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces are attempting to break through the Ukrainian defense and advance towards the southwestern outskirts of New York, almost completely capturing Yuryivka, and continued their advance near Toretsk, Dyliivka, and Pivnichne.
  • On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces advanced southwest from Novooleksandrivka towards Lozuvatske, up to 1 km east of Prohres, capturing Sokil and Voskhod, advancing 2 km towards Novoselivka Persha, and attacked in the areas of Kalynove, Novooleksandrivka, Vozdvyzhenka, Prohres, Lozuvatske, Yevhenivka, Novoselivka Persha, Umanske, Yasnobrodivka, Karlivka, Nevelske, and Netaylove.
  • On the Kurakhove direction, Russian forces advanced westwards in the fields north of Pobieda, in the northwestern part of Krasnohorivka, and attacked in the areas of Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Paraskoviivka, Kostyantynivka, and Vodyane.
  • On the Vremivka direction, the 218th Tank Regiment of the 127th Motorized Rifle Division of the 5th Combined Arms Army advanced north of Staromayorske. The enemy attacked in the areas of Urozhaine and Makarivka
  • On the Orikhiv direction, Russian forces continued their offensive in the areas of Robotyne, Verbove, and Shcherbaky, advancing 500 meters near Shcherbaky and Nesteryanka.
  • On the Prydniprovskiy direction, Russian forces continued their assault near Krynky, and fighting continued near the Antonivskyi railway bridge north of Oleshky.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
    • Azov Sea: 3 ships, including 0 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 0 cruise missiles.
    • Mediterranean Sea: 2 ships, including 2 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 24 cruise missiles.  

Changes in the enemy disposition:

  • Units of the 137th Airborne Regiment of the 106th Airborne Division operate near Rozdolivka and Pereyizne.
  • Troops of the 3rd Army Corps operate near Dyliivka.
  • Units of the 1461st Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 36th Combined Arms Army operate near Urozhaine.
  • Units of the “Valkyria” detachment of the 4th Military Base of the 58th Combined Arms Army operate on the Zaporizhzhia direction.

Possible operation situation developments:

  • In the near future, the enemy will attempt to capture the crossing over the Chornyi Zherebets River in Makiivka and will try to attack the positions of Ukrainian Defense Forces units in the directions of Makiivka – Nevske and Chervonopopivka – Nevske. For this purpose, the 252nd Motorized Rifle Regiment and the 237th Tank Regiment of the 3rd Motorized Rifle Division and separate units of the 59th Tank Regimentof the 144th Motorized Rifle Division will be reinforced by other units of the 144th Motorized Rifle Division (likely from the 283rd Motorized Rifle Regiment), which have been regrouped here from the south.
  • By launching an offensive from Bakhmut to Chasiv Yar, the enemy’s military command clearly aimed to quickly reach the Siversky Donets – Donbas canal on a broad front, not only in the city area but also to the south of it, to form a northern flank for capturing the Toretsk bridgehead of the Ukrainian Defense Forces;
  • The most probable scenario for the assault on Chasiv Yar is considered to be a breakthrough between the T0504 Kostyantynivka – Bakhmut highway and the “Novyi” neighborhood in the direction of the latter, primarily acting with assault groups through the wooded area to the south of the neighborhood. An auxiliary attack direction could be along the northern road towards the “Zhovtnevyi” neighborhood. The start of these actions is hindered by the Ukrainian Defense Forces’ continued control over the Kalynivka area and the area where the Siversky Donets – Donbas canal intersects with the T0504 highway. The capture of these strongholds might be assigned to the 98th Airborne Division and the 200th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 14th Army Corps in the Kalynivka area.
  • If the 132nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps captures Kalynove and reaches the road south of Stara Mykolaivka, the enemy will increase pressure on New York from both the south and the east, primarily in the direction of Yuryivka and Oleksandropil. The main forces of the newly formed 27th Motorized Rifle Division of the 2nd Guards Army – the 506th and 589th Motorized Rifle Regiments – will be used for this purpose. These forces are being deployed to the right of the 132nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade’s assault zone and in the area of Mayorsk.
  • The enemy’s military command on the Pokrovsk direction will shift the focus of their main attack closer to the Toretsk district of the Ukrainian Defense Forces, becoming more active in the direction of Kalynove and Oleksandropil, as well as east of Pivnichne.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 05.07.24  

Personnel – almost 548,580 (+1110); 

Tanks 8,142 (+10);

Armored combat vehicles – 15,611 (+11); 

Artillery systems – 14,831 (+54);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,115 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 878 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 19,977 (+54);

Aircraft – 360 (0);

Helicopters – 326 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 11,751 (+57);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,342 (0);

Boats/ships – 29 (0).


  • According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian forces shelled 13 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 112 towns and villages and 157 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
  • On the night of July 5, Russian occupiers attacked Ukraine with 32 Shahed-131/136 strike drones, all of which were shot down in Mykolaiv, Odesa, Kherson, Dnipropetrovsk, Kyiv, Chernihiv, and Cherkasy Oblasts.
  • Over the past day, Russian forces conducted 23 shelling attacks in Sumy Oblast, with 67 explosions recorded in seven communities.
  • On July 4, Russian forces killed three residents of Donetsk Oblast: in Stinky, Zakytne, and Krasnohorivka. Another 24 people in the region were injured during the day. Russian troops carried out 2,434 shelling attacks in Donetsk Oblast over the past day, resulting in damage to 66 civilian objects.
  • On Friday, July 5, the Russian army carried out three strikes on the village of Komar in the Volnovakha district of Donetsk Oblasr. As a result of one of the strikes hitting near the village council building, a council employee was killed, and 14 of her colleagues were injured.
  • On July 5, Russian troops shelled Khreshchenivka in the Beryslav district of Kherson Oblast with artillery fire, killing a local resident. Another victim was hospitalized in moderate condition.
  • More than a third of Russians would approve of a nuclear strike on Ukraine, according to a June poll by the Levada Center https://www.levada.ru/2024/07/04/konflikt-s-ukrainoj-osnovnye-indikatory-otvetstvennost-povody-dlya-bespokojstva-ugroza-stolknoveniya-s-nato-i-primeneniya-yadernogo-oruzhiya/. According to the poll, 10% of respondents “definitely” support the use of nuclear weapons in the war, while another 24% find it “rather” appropriate.

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