Центр оборонних стратегій

Russia’s war on Ukraine. 09.07.2024

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational Group of Forces (OTG) “Kharkiv” on the Kharkiv direction, the enemy continued active operations, resulting in a total of 9 engagements. Battles took place in the areas of Tykhe, Vovchansk, Hlyboke, Starytsya, and Sotnytsky Kozachok.

In the “Khortytsia” Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) operational zone on the Kupyansk direction, the number of enemy attacks increased to 7. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled enemy assault actions near Berestove, Pishchane, and Stelmakhivka. On the Lyman direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 14 enemy attacks in the areas of Hrekivka, Nevske, Makiivka, and Terny. On the Siversk direction, 7 assault actions were repelled near Spirne, Verkhnyokamianske, and Vyimka.  On the Kramatorsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces stopped 11 enemy attempts to break through the defense in the areas of Bohdanivka, Hryhorivka, Bila Hora, Andriivka, Vesele, and Chasiv Yar. On the Toretsk direction, supported by aviation, the enemy conducted 19 attacks near Dyliivka, Pivdenne, Pivnichne, Toretsk, and New York.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zoneon the Pokrovsk direction, 43 assault and offensive actions were repelled in the areas of Novooleksandrivka, Vozdvyzhenka, Yevhenivka, Kalynove, Tymofiivka, Novoselivka Persha, Yasnobrodivka, Karlivka, and Umanske, where the invaders, supported by aviation, attempted to displace Ukrainian Defense Forces from their positions. On the Kurakhove direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces continued to hold back the enemy in the areas of Netaylove, Heorhiivka, Krasnohorivka, Paraskoviivka, and Kostyantynivka, where the enemy tried to break through the Ukrainian defense 9 times.  On the Vremivka direction, the aggressor conducted 10 assaults near Vodyane, Kostyantynivka, Urozhaine, Rivnopil, Novosilka, and Makarivka. Enemy aviation was active. On the Orikhiv direction, 9 engagements took place in the areas of Mala Tokmachka, Robotyne, Novoandriivka, and Shcherbaky.

In the operational zone of “Odesa” OSG on the Prydniprovskiy direction, 4 enemy attacks were repelled in the area of Krynky.

General conclusion: 

  • The enemy has changed their tactics for missile and air strikes: cruise missiles operate at minimal altitudes, and reconnaissance UAVs remain over the targets in a state of electromagnetic silence, including with their satellite navigation systems turned off, and are activated immediately before the strike, minimizing the reaction time of the Ukrainian air defense systems.
  • Russian strikes on crossings over the Oskil River near Kupyansk have forced the operational-strategic grouping of troops “Hortytsia” to transfer part of its forces to the western (right) bank of the river.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

  • There were 141 combat engagements on various fronts.
  • On the Kharkiv direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces conduct constant counterattacks near Hlyboke, with heavy fighting ongoing in urban districts of Vovchansk.
  • The enemy attacked near Hlyboke, Lyptsi, Starytsya, Tykhe, and Vovchansk.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces advanced up to 800 meters near Pishchane, and attacked near Synkivka, Stepova Novoselivka, Berestove, and Stelmakhivka.
  • On the Lyman direction, Russian forces attacked near Makiivka, Hrekivka, Nevske, Terny, Torsk, in the area of Serebriansk Forest.
  • On the Siversk Direction, battles continued near Bilohorivka, Verkhnyokamianske, Spirne, Rozdolivka, and Veselе.
  • On the Kramatorsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces advanced along O. Koshovyi Street in the western part of the “Kanal” neighborhood and regained control over some lost positions. Heavy fighting occurred in the “Kanal” neighborhood, near Bohdanivka, Kalynivka, Hryhorivka, Andriivka, Klishchiivka, and Bila Hora.
  • On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces advanced 100 meters in the southern part of New York and captured approximately 20% of the town. Fighting continued near Toretsk and near Pivnichne.
  • On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces advanced 200 meters between Novokalynove and Novobakhmutivka, north of Novooleksandrivka, 200 meters towards Prohres, 400 meters south of Voskhod, and 200 meters from Novopokrovka towards Novoselivka Persha. Fighting continued near Vozdvyzhenka, Lozuvatske, Tymofiivka, Yevhenivka, Yasnobrodivka, Umanske, and Karlivka.
  • On the Kurakhove direction, Russian forces advanced west of Solodke. Battles continued near Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Kostyantynivka, and Paraskoviivka.
  • On the Vremivka direction, positional battles persisted in the areas of Makarivka, Urozhaine, and Staromayorske.
  • On the Orikhiv direction, Russian forces advanced northwest of Verbove. Positional battles continued near Robotyne and Malа Tokmachka.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
    • Black Sea: 1 ship, including 1 cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 4 cruise missiles.
    • Azov Sea: 3 ships, including 0 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 0 cruise missiles.
    • Mediterranean Sea: 2 ships, including 2 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 24 cruise missiles.  

Changes in the enemy disposition:

  • Units of the “Sever-V” paramilitary formation continue to operate near Hryhorivka. Units of the 11th Separate Air Assault Brigade and the “Burevestnik” UAV detachment are engaged in combat operations towards Chasiv Yar.
  • Units of the 16th Separate SOF Brigade and the 9th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps operate near New York.
  • Units of the 64th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 35th Army operate near Marfopil.
  • Units of the 247th Air Assault Regiment of the 7th Air Assault Division operate near Novopokrovka.

Possible operation situation developments:

  • The 252nd Motorized Rifle Regiment and the 237th Tank Regiment of the 3rd Motorized Rifle Division, as well as separate units of the 59th Tank Regiment of the 144th Motorized Rifle Division, are being reinforced by units of the 283rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 144th Motorized Rifle Division. In the near future, they will attempt to capture the crossing over the Chornyi Zherebets River in Makiivka and will attack the positions of Ukrainian Defense Forces units in the directions of Makiivka – Nevske and Chervonopopivka – Nevske.
  • The most probable scenario for the assault on Chasiv Yar is considered to be a breakthrough between the T0504 Kostyantynivka – Bakhmut highway and the “Novyi” neighborhood in the direction of the latter, primarily acting with assault groups through the wooded area to the south of the neighborhood. An auxiliary attack direction could be along the northern road towards the “Zhovtnevyi” neighborhood. The start of these actions is hindered by the Ukrainian Defense Forces’ continued control over the Kalynivka area and the area where the Siversky Donets – Donbas canal intersects with the T0504 highway. The capture of these strongholds might be assigned to the 98th Airborne Division and the 200th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 14th Army Corps in the Kalynivka area.
  • If the 132nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps captures Kalynove and reaches the road south of Stara Mykolaivka, the enemy will increase pressure on New York from both the south and the east, primarily in the direction of Yuryivka and Oleksandropil. The main forces of the newly formed 27th Motorized Rifle Division of the 2nd Guards Army – the 506th and 589th Motorized Rifle Regiments – will be used for this purpose. These forces are being deployed to the right of the 132nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade’s assault zone and in the area of Mayorsk.
  • The enemy’s military command on the Pokrovsk direction will shift the focus of their main attack closer to the Toretsk district of the Ukrainian Defense Forces, becoming more active in the direction of Kalynove and Oleksandropil, as well as east of Pivnichne.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 09.07.24  

Personnel – almost 553,410 (+1220); 

Tanks 8,178 (+7);

Armored combat vehicles – 15,704 (+19); 

Artillery systems – 15,015 (+49);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,115 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 880 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 20,212 (+62);

Aircraft – 361 (+1);

Helicopters – 326 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 11,922 (+29);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,389 (+36);

Boats/ships – 29 (0).

Humanitarian+general:

  • According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian forces shelled 11 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 136 towns and villages and 265 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
  • As of the morning of July 9, 2024, according to official information from juvenile prosecutors, 559 children have died as a result of the full-scale armed aggression of the Russian Federation. Over 1,449 have been injured to varying degrees.
  • As a result of yesterday’s enemy attack on Kyiv, 33 people were killed, including 4 children, and 121 were injured, including 10 children. 11 individuals were rescued. Overall, 42 people, including four children, were killed due to the Russian missile attack on Ukraine on July 8.
  • In the Bashtanka district of Mykolaiv Oblast, Russian forces hit an agricultural enterprise with a ballistic missile overnight, injuring two workers.
  • The Russian army attacked two people near a river in Kherson using a drone, injuring men aged 49 and 58 with explosive injuries, as well as leg and abdominal wounds.
  • Russian forces shelled the village of Kizomys in Kherson Oblast, killing a civilian who was on the street at the time.
  • Russian forces shelled the city of Kramatorsk in Donetsk Oblast on July 9, injuring three civilians, including a 6-year-old child.
  • The Russian army launched a missile strike on the city of Vilnyansk in Zaporizhia Oblast. Local major enterprises were destroyed due to direct hits. Additionally, two men were injured as a result of the attack, with one in moderate condition.
  • In the evening and morning, Russian troops attacked the Nikopol district in the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast with kamikaze drones and heavy artillery, injuring a 79-year-old woman.
  • On July 9, from 16:10 to 16:40, the Russian armed forces conducted airstrikes on the town of Kupyansk-Vuzlovy. Two people were killed, and four others were injured as a result.
  • 736 children taken to Russia since the start of the full-scale invasion have been returned to Ukraine. During the occupation of Kyiv Oblast, Russians took 600 civilians captive, and overall, Russia holds over 14,000 Ukrainian civilians.
  • More than 500 sports facilities in Ukraine have been partially or completely lost due to Russian attacks.

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