Центр оборонних стратегій

Russia’s war on Ukraine. 22.07.2024

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational Group of Forces (OTG) “Kharkiv” on the Kharkiv direction, the invaders attacked near Hlyboke and Vovchansk 9 times. Seven of the enemy’s attacks were successfully repelled, and the fighting continues.

In the “Khortytsia” Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) operational zone on the Kupyansk direction, the enemy attempted 10 times to advance to the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces near Synkivka, Stelmakhivka, Berestove, and towards Hlushkivka. Seven of the enemy’s attacks were successfully repelled, and the fighting continues. On the Lyman direction, the aggressor attacked 6 times in the areas of Makiivka and Terny. On the Siversk direction, the invaders unsuccessfully attempted 5 times to break through the Ukrainian defense in the areas of Verkhnyokamianske and Vyimka. The fighting near Verkhnyokamianske continues. On the Kramatorsk direction, enemy activity resulted in 5 clashes. Three attacks in the areas of Chasiv Yar and Andriivka were thwarted, and the fighting continues. On the Toretsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 5 enemy attacks near Pivnichne, Toretsk, and Zalizne.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone, the Russian forces showed the greatest activity on the Pokrovsk direction, attempting to penetrate Ukrainian defense 27 times in the areas of Vozdvyzhenka, Novoselivka Persha, Novooleksandrivka, Prohres, Kalynove, and Umanske. Twenty-two enemy attacks were repelled. On the Kurakhove direction, the enemy attacked 5 times, showing the greatest activity in the area of Krasnohorivka and Paraskoviivka. All the enemy’s attempts to break through in this direction were unsuccessful. The occupiers unsuccessfully stormed the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces 3 times on Orikhiv direction near Robotyne and Novodanylivka.

In the operational zone of “Odesa” OSG on the Prydniprovskiy direction, the enemy continues to attempt to dislodge Ukrainian Defense Forces from their positions, with an unsuccessful assault by the aggressor being repelled.

General conclusion:

  • The command of the enemy’s “Sever (North)” Operational Grouping has not abandoned its operational task of breaking through in the Vovchansk area and advancing to the rear of the “Khortytsia” OSG on the Kupyansk direction, with the overall direction being Vovchansk – Bilyi Kolodyaz – Velykyi Burluk.
  • The enemy is unable to capture the entire city of Vovchansk or even take control of its northern part.
  • On the Kharkiv direction, the command of the enemy’s “Sever” Operational Grouping has committed most of its main forces to the operation, including the 138th and 25th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 6th Combined Arms Army, two regiments of the 72nd Motorized Rifle Division, the 128th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 44th Army Corps, most of the 18th Motorized Rifle Division of the 11th Army Corps, the 155th Separate Marines Brigade of the Pacific Fleet, the 83rd Separate Airborne Brigade, the 2nd Separate SOF Brigade, three battalions of the 47th Tank Division, a “volunteer” detachment, an “African Corps” detachment, and up to three Territorial Defense regiments, one of which, the 1009th, has been practically destroyed.
  • The enemy is not capable of conducting offensive operations on the Kharkiv direction in the short term and needs reinforcement with at least 1-2 brigades.
  • Resolving immediate tactical tasks on the Kharkiv direction requires the enemy command to expend operational reserves, including those from other directions (e.g., the 83rd Separate Airborne Brigade from the Kramatorsk direction and the 155th Separate Marines Brigade from the Kurakhove direction, both from the enemy’s “Yug” Operational Grouping).
  • On the Kupyansk direction, the enemy is close to splitting the “Kharkiv” OTG forces along the Pishchane – Kolisnykivka direction and pushing them against the eastern bank of the Oskil River.
  • Further enemy advances in the Prohres area allow for cutting the Pokrovsk – Kostyantynivka highway, taking control of height 229.0 west of Vozdvyzhenka, and advancing along the chain of dominant heights along the railway to reach height 224.8 and Novohrodivka.
  • According to some estimates, from October 2023 to July 2024, Ukrainian Defense Forces lost between 1,042 and 1,104 personnel in battles for Krynky, with 788 of them considered missing in action. Between 311 and 361 personnel were lost by Ukrainian Defense Forces on the Dnipro River and its right bank during attempts to supply Krynky, evacuate the wounded, and deploy reinforcements. The Russian Armed Forces lost between 6,700 and 7,200 personnel killed and missing in action, 279 units of combat equipment (BMPs, BTRs, MT-LBs, tanks, MLRS, SPGs), and up to 40 towed guns in Krynky from October 2023 to July 2, 2024.
  • In response to the FPV drone strikes of Ukrainian Defense Forces, the enemy is increasingly using motorcycles. For instance, the 5th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps is creating its own military motorcycle school.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

  • There were 77 combat engagements on various fronts.
  • On the Kharkiv direction, battles continue in the area of Hlyboke, where the enemy’s advanced units of the 18th Motorized Rifle Division are trying to regain control of the village. Despite heavy losses, the enemy continues to hold the road junction east of the village and its northern part, from where they constantly attack the forward units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces, trying to push them towards Lyptsi.
  • Units of the 138th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (6th Combined Arms Army) and several detachments of the 2nd Separate SOF Brigade in Vovchansk are attempting to break through from Torhova and Shevchenko streets along Pushkinska Street towards the Aggregate Plant, where one of the enemy’s assault groups continues to hold its positions. In the northern part of the city, the enemy’s advanced units have managed to advance to the intersection of Korolenka and Khliborobiv streets. The enemy is trying to break through to the Vovcha River.
  • The enemy’s advanced units hold their positions in the area of Buhruvatka and along the northern bank of the Vovcha River from its confluence with the Siversky Donets River to the city limits east of Hatyshche.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces have advanced further west from Pishchane towards Stepova Novoselivka, east of Andriivka and Myasozharivka, and continued offensive actions in the areas of Synkivka, Stelmakhivka, Hlushkivka, Pishchane, Berestove, Andriivka.
  • On the Lyman direction, a missile strike by Ukrainian Defense Forces destroyed an aviation fuel depot at the Millerovo airfield.
  • On the Siversk Direction, Russian forces attacked near Bilohorivka, Verkhnyokamianske, Vyimka, Spirne, and Pereyizne.
  • On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces attempted to cross the Siversky Donets-Donbas canal but could not secure positions on the western bank of the canal and near Chasiv Yar. Battles continued near Chasiv Yar, Novomarkove, Kalynivka, Klishchiivka, Andriivka, and Stupochky.
  • On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces advanced south from the “Pivdenna” mine, along Poltavska Street east of Zalizne, and in New York. Battles continued near Pivnichne, Druzhba, Zalizne, and Pivdenne.
  • On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces advanced in Krasnohorivka, Pishchane, northeast of Nevelske, west of Lozuvatka, Novooleksandrivka, Prohres, and Andriivka, advanced on the eastern outskirts of Vovche, and captured Novoselivka Persha. Battles continued near Kalynove, Vozdvyzhenka, Lozuvatka, Novooleksandrivka, Prohres, Novoselivka Persha, Umanske, Yasnobrodivka, and Karlivka.
  • On the Kurakhove direction, Russian forces advanced in the center of Krasnohorivka to the north along Vidrodzhennia, Michurina, and Gagarina streets. Battles continued near Heorhiivka, Paraskoviivka, and Kostyantynivka.
  • On the Vremivka direction, Russian forces attacked near Staromayorske.
  • On the Orikhiv direction, positional battles continued in the area of Robotyne, Mala Tokmachka, Novodanylivka, and Shcherbaky.
  • On the Prydniprovskiy direction, positional battles continued on the left bank of Kherson, including near Krynky and Kozachi Laheri. Russian forces are clearing islands in the Dnipro River delta. Ukrainian Defense Forces are holding positions near Lake Kruhlyk.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
    • Azov Sea: 2 ships, including 0 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 0 cruise missiles.
    • Mediterranean Sea: 1 ship, including 1 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 8 cruise missiles.  

Changes in the enemy disposition:

  • The command of the enemy’s “Sever (North)” Operational Grouping has deployed units from the 128th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (44th Army Corps), which are currently engaged in battles for the city of Vovchansk. The 345th and 380th Motorized Rifle Regiments of Territorial Troops have arrived in the offensive sector of the 18th Motorized Rifle Division. Three tank battalions of the 47th Tank Division of the 1st Tank Army have arrived in the Vovchansk area, with at least one battalion concentrated near Shebekino (Russia). The reserves may include a battalion of the 25th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 6th Army, several Motorized Rifle Regiments of Territorial Troops, the 31st and 40th Motorized Rifle Regiments of the 72nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 44th Army Corps, and up to a battalion of the 155th Separate Marines Brigade of the Pacific Fleet.
  • Assault units of the 88th “Espanola” Volunteer Brigade conduct assault operations near Chasiv Yar, using motorcycles.
  • The 1st Detachment of the “Volki (Wolves)” Diversion and Reconnaissance Brigade, the “Vostok-V” Volunteer Reconnaissance and Assault Brigade (Rosgvardia), and the 116th Separate Reconnaissance Battalion of the 1st Army Corps are active near Ocheretyne. The “Black Hussars” Detachment of the 15th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Army, the 27th Motorized Rifle Division, and the 30th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Army are engaged near Prohres.
  • The 238th Artillery Brigade of the 8th Army, the 5th and 110th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 1st Army Corps, and the “Grachi” UAV detachment are active near Krasnohorivka. UAV units of the 39th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 68th Army Corps are engaged near Kostyantynivka.

Escalation indicators:

  • The enemy has relocated additional forces and resources from the “Yug” Operational Grouping to the Kharkiv direction.

Possible operation situation developments:

  • The enemy will attempt to intensify efforts in the central part of Vovchansk towards the Aggregate Plant and along Lenin Street towards the bridge over the Vovcha River or along Khliborobiv Street. We should also expect increased enemy activity in the area between Hatyshche and the railway bridge towards the Vovchansk railway station, which will require crossing the Vovcha River. The enemy will try to join both of its wedges into one bridgehead and attack Starytsya.
  • In the direction of Lyptsi, enemy attacks are expected in the area of Hlyboke with the aim of completely pushing back the “Kharkiv” OTG forward units, especially in the area between Lyptsi and the forest southeast of it. The enemy will also attempt to advance along both banks of the Lypets River from the village of Lukyantsi towards Lyptsi to regain control over its northeastern outskirts. These actions may be accompanied by an enemy attempt to break through towards the Travyanske Reservoir, thereby cutting off the “Kharkiv” OTG units currently fighting of Hlyboke from the village of Lyptsi.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, in the operational zone of the 1st Tank Army, command of the enemy’s “Zapad (West)” Operational Grouping will attempt to reach the Oskil River in the Hlushkivka – Zahryzove sector, the Petropavlivka – Kurylivka line, and storm Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi railway junction. This assumption is supported he enemy’s increased activity specifically on the flanks (Synkivka – Petropavlivka and Pishchane – Kolisnykivka directions). To bind the “Khortytsia” OSG forces, the enemy will exert frontal pressure on their positions in the Stepova Novoselivka area.
  • The enemy’s “Yug (South)” Operational Grouping failed to advance through Kalynivka, failing to complete the task of bypassing Chasiv Yar from the north and breaking through Ridkodubya towards the railway station north of the Refractory plant, thus falling to force the forward units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces to retreat from the “Novyi” and “Zhovtnevyi” neighborhoods and avoid a frontal assault on their positions across the canal. A repeat attempt of such actions should be expected if the “Siversky Donets-Donbas” canal between Kalynivka and the “Zhovtnevyi” neighborhood is crossed.
  • The 55th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade is actively fortifying its forward positions between Novooleksandrivka and Arkhanhelske, particularly setting up mine-explosive barriers, preparing to intensify offensive actions with at least two battalions and two to three assault groups from a consolidated assault company north of Novooleksandrivka towards Zelene Pole and Baranivka, aiming to support the right flank of a tactical group that will attempt to capture Vozdvyzhenka. If the enemy achieves success north of Novooleksandrivka, they may also launch an attack towards Kalynove.
  • Russian forces will intensify attacks south of Kostyantynivka to encircle the Vuhledar defense area.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 22.07.24  

Personnel – almost 567,760 (+1050); 

Tanks 8,284 (+18);

Armored combat vehicles – 15,980 (+17); 

Artillery systems – 15,637 (+51);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,123 (+2);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 900 (+4);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 21,138 (+102);

Aircraft – 362 (0);

Helicopters – 326 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level –12,475 (+73);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,401 (0);

Boats/ships – 29 (0).

Humanitarian+general:

  • According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian forces shelled 9 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 105 towns and villages and 117 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
  • Russian forces attacked the Dniprovskyi district of Kherson at night, resulting in the fatal injury of a woman. A 68-year-old man was injured due to the dropping of ammunition from a drone on the village of Antonivka near Kherson. Additionally, two elderly women were injured within the city community.
  • Russian artillery attacked Nikopol in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, injuring five people.
  • On July 22, the Russian army launched a missile strike on an educational institution in the city of Derhachi and shelled the villages of Podoly and Senkove in the Kupyansk district of Kharkiv Oblast, injuring two women.
  • During the day, the Russian army launched a missile strike on Odesa Oblast, damaging the administrative building of a private enterprise, warehouses, and civilian cars.
  • Due to air bombings by the Russian army on towns and villages in Donetsk Oblast on July 22, nine civilians were injured.
  • Since the beginning of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, 1,642 medical facilities, including 676 healthcare institutions, have been damaged, and 214 facilities, including 99 medical institutions, have been completely destroyed. “Russians are deliberately targeting hospitals, maternity wards, clinics, and polyclinics,” stated the Ministry of Health.
  • In Crimea, Russian occupiers have begun dismantling the Church of the Exaltation of the Holy Cross of the Orthodox Church of Ukraine in Yevpatoria. The Prosecutor’s Office of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol noted that this is the last Ukrainian church on the peninsula.

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