Russia’s war on Ukraine. 31.07.24

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational Group of Forces (OTG) “Kharkiv” on the Kharkiv direction, there were 6 combat clashes with Russian invaders. Five attacks in the areas of Tykhe and Vovchansk were repelled, and the fighting continues.

In the “Khortytsia” Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) operational zone on the Kupyansk direction, the enemy unsuccessfully attempted 6 times to dislodge Ukrainian Defense Forces units from their positions near Pishchane and Stelmakhivka. On the Lyman direction, the enemy attempted to advance 10 times towards Makiivka and Nevske, with 3 ongoing combat clashes. Two attacks were repelled in the Serebriansk Forest. On the Siversk direction, Ukrainian defenders repelled 3 enemy assaults in the areas of Verkhnyokamianske, Pereyizne, and Vyimka. The enemy had no success. On the Kramatorsk direction, there were 7 combat clashes. The occupiers were active in the area of Chasiv Yar and made 5 failed attempts to capture Ukrainian Defense Forces positions. The fighting continues. On the Toretsk direction, there were 7 combat clashes. The occupiers were active in the area of Chasiv Yar, 5 Russian attempts to capture Defense Forces positions failed, and the fighting continues.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone, on the Pokrovsk direction, the aggressor conducted 40 assault and offensive actions. The highest activity of Russian occupiers remains in the areas of Novooleksandrivka, Vesele, Ivanivka, Zhelanne, and Yasnobrodivka. Overall, 22 attacks on this direction have been repelled by Ukrainian defenders, with 18 ongoing combat clashes. The situation is challenging but controlled by Ukrainian Defense Forces, who are making efforts to prevent the enemy from advancing into Ukrainian territory. On the Kurakhove direction, there were 10 combat clashes. The invaders maintain high activity, trying to advance in the areas of Krasnohorivka and Paraskoviivka. Ukrainian Defense Forces units repelled 9 enemy attacks, with fighting ongoing near Krasnohorivka. On the Vremivka direction, there were 4 combat clashes in the area of Staromayorske. All enemy assaults were thwarted. On the Orikhiv direction, the situation has not changed significantly, with 2 enemy attacks repelled.

General conclusion:

• Russian forces find it challenging to conduct large-scale simultaneous offensive operations, but they tend to carry out localized offensives along different front sections, with varying intensity across operational zones.
• Russian military command has redeployed the 90th Tank Division of the 41st Combined Arms Army from the Pokrovsk direction to the Kurakhove direction, indicating a shift in the main strike focus in the Southwestern Theater of Operations. The priority is to achieve some territorial gains, even if limited, in the course of the summer of 2024.
• The Russian military command initially planned to capture the remaining territories of Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia Oblast during its large-scale offensive in summer 2024 but likely revised these plans following the delivery of military aid to Ukraine from its partners.
• Russian military-political leadership might intend to present limited tactical successes in western Donetsk Oblast, including cutting off the Vuhledar-Kostyantynivka highway, as a “great victory for the Russian people.”
• The Russian military command is prepared to incur significant losses, particularly in combat equipment, in exchange for advances, but this will have negative long-term consequences.
• The enemy’s active offensive actions aim to exhaust Ukrainian Defense Forces both physically and in terms of resources, aligning with the Russian military-political leadership’s policy of retaining any territorial gains in Ukraine under any geopolitical conditions.
• The Russian advances near Staromayorske and Urozhaine are not operationally significant, as these villages are relatively small and do not threaten Ukrainian Defense Forces’ communications.
• The Russian military command in the theater of operations cannot unify offensive efforts across different operational zones, further limiting their operational achievements on the Zaporizhzhia direction.
• Russian forces are attempting to capture Kostyantynivka, cut the T0524 Vuhledar-Kostyantynivka highway, and force Ukrainian Defense Forces to retreat from this area.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

• There were 108 combat engagements on various fronts.
• On the Kharkiv direction, Russian forces continued offensive actions near Hlyboke and northeast of Kharkiv near Vovchansk. Enemy aviation struck Ukrainian positions near Vovchansk with a FAB-250 aerial bomb and the northeastern outskirts of Lyptsi with a FAB-3000 equipped with UMPK module.
• Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked near Hlyboke, in the Vovchansk area, and near Starytsya.
• On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces attacked in the area of Pishchane, Novoosynove, and Stelmakhivka.
• On the Lyman direction, Russian forces attacked near Makiivka, Nevske, Terny, and in the area of Serebriansk Forest.
• On the Siversk Direction, Russian forces continued attacks near Verkhnyokamianske, Spirne, Vyimka, Ivano-Dariivka, and Pereyizne.
• On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces made slight advances near Chasiv Yar. Russian armored vehicles slightly advanced through the “Siversky Donets – Donbas” canal in the area where it runs underground, north of Chasiv Yar, but Ukrainian Defense Forces struck before the enemy could advance further on the western bank. The enemy is attempting to secure positions in the “Novyi” and “Zhovtnevyi” neighborhoods. The enemy also attacked near Hryhorivka, Kalynivka, Bohdanivka, and Klishchiivka.
• On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces captured Pivdenne, advanced within New York, near Druzhba, Zalizne, and Pivnichne, and continued ground attacks near Druzhba, Pivnichne, Zalizne, New York, and Toretsk.
• On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces broke through Ukrainian defenses near Vesele, captured positions in the eastern part of the village, advanced to its center, advanced west of Lozuvatka, secured positions on the eastern outskirts of Tymofiivka, advanced in fields east of Ivanivka, and moved from Yasnobrodivka towards the Karlivka Reservoir. Battles also continued near Zelene Pole, Kalynove, Vozdvyzhenka, Novooleksandrivka, Serhiivka, Lysychne, Zhelanne, and Prohres.
• On the Kurakhove direction, Russian forces made slight advances northwest of Maryinka, continued shelling in the area of Paraskoviivka, and made slight advances on the southwestern outskirts of Kostyantynivka. Defense forces repelled an enemy assault southwest of Pobieda, although Russian forces made slight advances southwest of the settlement.
• On the Vremivka direction, Russian forces continued local attacks near Velyka Novosilka and Urozhaine.
• On the Orikhiv direction, Russian forces advanced northwest of Robotyne. Battles continued near Robotyne and Mala Tokmachka.
• On the Prydniprovskiy direction, positional battles continued on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River and on the delta islands.
• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
  • Black Sea: 2 ships, including 2 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 8 cruise missiles.
  • Mediterranean Sea: 2 ships, including 1 cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 16 cruise missiles.  
• Russian vessels turn off the Automatic Identification System (AIS) to conceal their movements in the Black Sea and the transit of stolen goods from occupied territories of Ukraine.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

• The 144th Motorized Rifle Division of the 20th Combined Arms Army is engaged in combat operations in the Terny-Nevske area.
• Units of the 57th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 6th Motorized Rifle Division of the 3rd Army Corps maintain fire control over the Kostyantynivka-Vuhledar highway. The UAV unit of the 255th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 20th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Combined Arms Army operates near Pobieda.
• Units of the 50th Separate Artillery Brigade of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 58th Combined Arms Army are active near Robotyne.
• A Bulsae-4 anti-tank guided missile system manufactured by North Korea, mounted on an M2010 wheeled armored personnel carrier (the Korean version of the Soviet BTR-70) was spotted northwest of Shebekino in the Russian Belgorod Oblast.

Possible operation situation developments:

• The enemy will attempt to advance along both banks of the Lypets River from the village of Lukyantsi towards Lyptsi to regain control over its northeastern outskirts. These actions may be accompanied by an enemy attempt to break through towards the Travyanske Reservoir, thereby cutting off the “Kharkiv” OTG units currently fighting for Hlyboke from the village of Lyptsi.
• On the Kupyansk direction, in the operational zone of the 1st Tank Army, command of the enemy’s “Zapad (West)” Operational Grouping will attempt to reach the Oskil River in the Hlushkivka – Zahryzove sector, the Petropavlivka – Kurylivka line, and storm Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi railway junction. To bind the “Khortytsia” OSG forces, the enemy will exert frontal pressure on their positions in the Stepova Novoselivka area.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 31.07.24  

Personnel – almost 578,120 (+1060); 

Tanks 8,390 (+9);

Armored combat vehicles – 16,161 (+20); 

Artillery systems – 16,086 (+30);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,131 (+1);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 907 (+1);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 21,739 (+52);

Aircraft – 363 (0);

Helicopters – 326 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level –12,853 (+21);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,407 (+1);

Boats/ships – 29 (0).

Humanitarian+general:

• In the night of July 31, the enemy attacked Ukraine with a Kh-59 guided missile and 89 Shahed-type strike UAVs. The main direction of the attack was Kyiv Oblast. Ukrainian air defense forces destroyed all aerial targets.
• Russian military shelled Nikopol and three communities in the Nikopol district with heavy artillery throughout the day, also attacking with drones. Residential buildings, utility structures, and a gas pipeline were damaged, and there was one injury.
• In Kharkiv Oblast, over the past few months, more than 500 Russian FPV drone strikes on civilians have been recorded. “This is deliberate terror, as the drone operator cannot fail to see that they are targeting civilians,” said the head of the Kharkiv Oblast Military Administration, Oleh Synyehubov.
• Around 1:00 PM, the enemy attacked public transport in Kherson with a drone, damaging two private buses. No injuries have been reported.
• On July 31, Russian forces carried out an airstrike on a village in the Kupyansk district of Kharkiv Oblast, killing a woman and inflicting  burns on her son that required hospitalization.
• Ukrainian prisoner of war Oleksandr Ishchenko, who served as a driver in the “Azov” regiment, died in Detention Center No. 5 in Rostov-on-Don. The information was disclosed during a session of the Southern District Military Court in Rostov-on-Don, which is handling a fabricated case against Ishchenko and 23 other “Azov” members. The detention center has not yet provided the court with documents confirming the death, so the exact date and cause of death are unknown.
• Two girls, aged 3 and 5, along with their mother, were successfully returned from the temporarily occupied territory of Kherson Oblast.
• In Donetsk Oblast, 18 more civilians were evacuated today, July 31, from the Russian-shelled city of Toretsk. Due to the security situation, mandatory evacuation of 21 children along with accompanying persons has been implemented in six villages of Donetsk Oblast.
• Around 40 cases of arson of military vehicles have been recorded in Kharkiv and the region. The crimes have been solved, with the police identifying all arsonists as mostly young people aged 12 to 18, who receive messages through Telegram channels from Russian special services offering rewards to set fire to specific targets. The reward ranges from 20,000 to 40,000 UAH, according to Oleh Synyehubov, the head of the Kharkiv Oblast Military Administration.

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