Центр оборонних стратегій

Russia’s war on Ukraine. 02.08.24

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational Group of Forces (OTG) “Kharkiv” on the Kharkiv direction, the enemy continued active operations, resulting in 5 combat clashes. Fighting occurred in the areas of Vovchansk and Tykhe.

In the “Khortytsia” Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) operational zone on the Kupyansk direction, the enemy attacked the positions of Ukrainian Defense Forces 7 times, focusing their efforts in the areas of Pishchane and Stelmakhivka. On the Lyman direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled six attacks near Makiivka and Torske. On the Siversk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces also repelled eleven assault actions near Ivano-Dariivka, Verkhnyokamianske, Spirne, Vyimka, and Pereyizne. On the Kramatorsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces stopped 6 enemy attempts to break through in the areas of Chasiv Yar, Klishchiivka, Andriivka, and towards Hryhorivka in Donetsk Oblast. On the Toretsk direction, supported by aviation, the enemy carried out 24 attacks near Pivnichne, Zalizne, Toretsk, and New York.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zoneon the Pokrovsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 53 assault and offensive actions. The enemy concentrated their efforts in the areas of Novooleksandrivka and Zhelanne, conducting 8 and 18 attacks respectively. Additionally, Russian attempts to advance were halted near Panteleimonivka, Vozdvyzhenka, Svyrydonivka, Novoselivka Persha, Yasnobrodivka, and Kalynivka. On the Kurakhove direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold back the enemy in the areas of Krasnohorivka, Paraskoviivka, and Kostyantynivka, where the enemy attempted to break through 7 times. On the Vremivka direction, the aggressor carried out 2 assaults on Ukrainian Defense Forces positions near Vodyane. On the Orikhiv direction, there were 2 enemy attacks towards Mala Tokmachka.

In the operational zone of “Odesa” OSG on the Prydniprovskiy direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces firmly stopped the occupiers’ attempts to advance on the left bank of the Dnipro River.

General conclusion:

  • Enemy airstrikes on bridges and crossings over the Oskil River aim to isolate part of the operational zone along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line.
  • The current pace of the enemy’s advance towards Pokrovsk is slowing due to the proximity to urban areas.
  • The enemy’s “Tsentr (Center)” Operational Grouping Command on the Pokrovsk direction is concentrating its efforts on achieving a tactical breakthrough in the area of Zhelanne and Novohrodivka.
  • Novohrodivka and Hrodivka pose a significant problem for the enemy, as they have not developed tactical maneuvers for urban or residential areas (Avdiivka, for example, is not much larger than Novohrodivka).
  • Ukrainian Defense Forces units are noticeably more exhausted compared to the period of battles for Avdiivka.
  • The Russian military command is conducting simultaneous offensive operations on several directions, attempting to stretch Ukrainian Defense Forces and attack less defended sections of the front.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

  • There were 127 combat engagements on various fronts.
  • On the Kharkiv direction, Russian forces regained control over positions in the center of Vovchansk, repelled Ukrainian Defense Forces’ counterattacks near Hlyboke.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces advanced east of Nadiya and southeast of Synkivka, continued offensive actions in the area of Stepova Novoselivka, Berestove, Pishchane, Kolisnykivka, Stelmakhivka, Andriivka, and Novoserhiivka. Enemy aircraft struck the crossing over the Oskil River near Osynove with an X-38 missile.
  • On the Lyman direction, fighting continued near Makiivka, Nevske, and Torske.
  • On the Siversk Direction, Russian forces are struggling with the dominance of Defense Forces’ UAVs, suffering heavy losses. The enemy unsuccessfully attacked in the areas of Verkhnyokamianske, Vyimka, Spirne, and Ivano-Dariivka.
  • On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces advanced further west through the canal area, where it runs underground north of the “Zhovtnevyi” neighborhood, with fierce battles ongoing near the canal. The enemy is fortifying positions on the outskirts of the “Zhovtnevyi” and “Novyi” neighborhoods. The enemy attacked near Bohdanivka, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, and Andriivka.
  • Ukrainian Defense Forces withdrew from positions in Klishchiivka.
  • On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces advanced within Zalisne, captured the Artem spoil heap between Zalisne and Toretsk, and took new positions in the industrial zone and the center of New York.
  • On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces are attempting to encircle Ukrainian Defense Forces’ units east of the T0511 Ocheretyne – Hrodivka – Myrnohrad highway, particularly on the left bank of the Vovcha River. Russian forces advanced within Vesele towards the T0511 road, reaching a line 3.5 km from the outskirts of Hrodivka. The enemy attacked south of Vesele along the railway line and forest belts towards Serhiivka and Zhelanne, capturing Tymofiivka.
  • On the Kurakhove direction, Russian forces captured a building in northern Paraskoviivka, advanced within the northwestern part of Krasnohorivka, and effectively control the entire city. The enemy is developing an offensive in the areas of Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Paraskoviivka, Kostyantynivka, and Vodyane.
  • On the Vremivka direction, Russian forces struck near Velyka Novosilka, Neskuchne, and Novodonetske. Enemy units in the Staromayorske area face significant logistical problems, including food shortages.
  • Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked on the Urozhaine – Staromayorske line. There is an increase in enemy aviation activity in the Volnovakha district.
  • On the Orikhiv direction, Russian forces continued offensive actions near Verbove and Mala Tokmachka but did not advance.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
    • Black Sea: 2 ships, including 2 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 8 cruise missiles.
    • Mediterranean Sea: 2 ships, including 1 cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 16 cruise missiles.  

Changes in the enemy disposition:

  • Aviation from the 11th Air Force and Air Defense Army strikes targets in Kostyantynivka.
  • The 69th Cover Brigade of the 35th Combined Arms Army operates on the Zaporizhzhia direction.

Possible operation situation developments:

  • The enemy will attempt to advance along both banks of the Lypets River from the village of Lukyantsi towards Lyptsi to regain control over its northeastern outskirts. These actions may be accompanied by an enemy attempt to break through towards the Travyanske Reservoir, thereby cutting off the “Kharkiv” OTG units currently fighting for Hlyboke from the village of Lyptsi.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, in the operational zone of the 1st Tank Army, command of the enemy’s “Zapad (West)” Operational Grouping will attempt to reach the Oskil River in the Hlushkivka – Zahryzove sector, the Petropavlivka – Kurylivka line, and storm Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi railway junction. To bind the “Khortytsia” OSG forces, the enemy will exert frontal pressure on their positions in the Stepova Novoselivka area.
  • In the near future, “Tavriya” OSG units will be forced to retreat westward beyond the Vovcha River under simultaneous pressure from the enemy’s 27th Motorized Rifle Division, 90th Tank Division, and 114th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade. There is a high probability of an enemy breakthrough between Mezhove and Skuchne in the general direction of Komyshivka.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 02.08.24  

Personnel – almost 580,590 (+1100); 

Tanks 8,402 (+3);

Armored combat vehicles – 16,211 (+8); 

Artillery systems – 16,161 (+42);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,134 (+2);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 907 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 21,872 (+56);

Aircraft – 363 (0);

Helicopters – 326 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 13,005 (+37);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,407 (0);

Boats/ships – 29 (0).

Humanitarian+general:

  • As a result of repatriation efforts, the bodies of 250 fallen defenders have been returned to Ukraine from the Luhansk, Bakhmut, Maryinka, Avdiivka, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia fronts, as well as from Mariupol, Horlivka, and morgues in the aggressor state.
  • On August 2, around 11:40 AM, Russian forces struck the city of Kupyansk, Kharkiv Oblast, presumably with a cluster munition. A hit near a residential building was recorded. Two residents were injured, one of whom, a woman born in 1958, died.
  • On the morning of August 2, Russian troops attacked a bus with people in the Derhachi community, Kharkiv Oblast, resulting in seven civilians being injured, one of whom is in serious condition.
  • In the village of Zolochiv, Bohodukhiv district, Kharkiv Oblast, Russian forces struck a kindergarten with a drone around 9:30 AM, causing damage to its building.
  • In Kherson, Russian forces hit an energy infrastructure facility overnight. In the morning, energy workers activated reserve lines, and electricity supply in the city has been fully restored, though emergency work continues.
  • Russian troops attacked Kherson with a drone. People on the street were hit, resulting in one fatality and one injury.
  • On August 2, 2024, Russian occupation forces attacked the city of Myrnohrad in Donetsk Oblast, likely using two “FAB-250” bombs with UMPK module, injuring a woman and two children.
  • In the evening of August 2, Russian forces attacked Odesa Oblast on August 2 with three ballistic missiles launched from temporarily occupied Crimea. Throughout the day on August 2, air defense forces shot down five reconnaissance drones in the south, including three “ZALA” and two “Supercam” types.
  • 72% of Ukrainians believe that holding elections is a post-war matter, while 24% would prefer to vote during the war, according to a survey by the National Democratic Institute and the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology conducted in May.
  • 57% of Ukrainians believe that Ukraine should enter negotiations with Russia to attempt to achieve peace, 38% believe that Ukraine should not enter negotiations, and 5% are unsure. At the same time, 66% of respondents believe that Ukraine should regain control of its territories to the 2014 borders, including Donbas and Crimea. Additionally, 74% and 76% of respondents disagree with the idea that Ukraine should renounce NATO or EU membership for the sake of peace.

Centre for Defence Strategies (CDS) is a Ukrainian security think tank. We operate since 2020.

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