Russia’s war on Ukraine. 12.08.24

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational Group of Forces (OTG) “Kharkiv” on the Kharkiv direction, the enemy continued assault operations, with 5 combat engagements occurring near Vovchansk.

In the “Khortytsia” Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) operational zone on the Kupyansk direction, the number of combat engagements reached 10. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled enemy assault operations near Pishchane, Berestove, and towards Hlushkivka. On the Lyman direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 21 enemy assaults in the areas of Makiivka, Nevske, Novosadove, and in the Serebriansk Forest. On the Siversk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 8 attacks near Ivano-Dariivka, Spirne, Verkhnyokamianske, and Vyimka. On the Kramatorsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces soldiers stopped 11 enemy attempts to breach their defenses in the areas of Chasiv Yar, Kalynivka, and Ivanivske. On the Toretsk direction, the enemy, supported by aviation, carried out 8 attacks, focusing efforts in the areas of Zalizne, Druzhba, and New York.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone, on the Pokrovsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 41 attacks. The enemy concentrated its main efforts in the areas of Vozdvyzhenka, Novooleksandrivka, Kalynove, Novohrodivka, Hrodivka, Zhelanne, Orlivka, and Mykolaivka. On the Kurakhove direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold back the enemy near Kostyantynivka, with the enemy attempting to break through their defenses 6 times. On the Vremivka direction, the occupiers launched two attacks towards Vodyane and Rivnopil, but were unsuccessful. On the Orikhiv direction, there were 4 unsuccessful combat engagements for the enemy near Mala Tokmachka and Novodanylivka.

In the operational zone of “Odesa” OSG on the Prydniprovskiy direction, there were no losses of positions or territory. Ukrainian soldiers successfully repelled 8 attacks by Russian invaders.

General conclusion:

• The Ukrainian Defense Forces operation in Kursk Oblast has allowed Ukraine to seize the strategic initiative on one of the operational directions in the theater of operations.
• Russian forces have slightly reduced the intensity of their attacks in eastern Ukraine.
• Ukrainian Defense Forces have fully secured their positions along the Vladimirovka – Snagost – Korenovo road, gaining complete control over the villages of Byakhovo, Vnezapnoe, and Gordeevka.
• Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups remain active in the border areas of Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts.
• As a result of the battles in Kursk Oblast, up to 4,000 Russian servicemen are currently listed as “missing.” The number includes the captured, deserters, and the encircled personnel.
• Russian troops along the international border within Kursk, Belgorod, and Bryansk Oblasts remain poorly prepared to respond to further Ukrainian incursions across the border.
• Ongoing issues with command and control within the Russian military in Kursk Oblast will further hinder their ability to prevent rapid maneuvers by Ukrainian Defense Forces and to respond quickly to any other potential incursions across the border. Poor communication, unclear division of responsibilities, and insufficient coordination between intelligence and fire support units along the border will create gaps that highly mobile Ukrainian units may exploit.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

• There were 124 combat engagements on various fronts.
• On the Kursk Direction: Ukrainian Defense Forces advanced west and northwest in Kursk Oblast, reaching Snagost, operating southeast of Korenovo, advancing near Kremyanoe, and capturing Olgovka and Martynovka. They made progress in the southern part of Cherkasskoe Porechie, operated west of Malaya Loknya, maintained a presence in the western part of Sudzha, in Goncharovka, Zaoleshchenka, and southwest of Gogolevka. They also operated near Borki and Spalnoe, and in the area of Guevo. Units of the 22nd Separate Mechanized Brigade captured Mala Loknya, Makhnovka, Giryi, Cherkasskoe Porechie, and the territory between them, attacking in the area of the Sheptukhovka and Kauchuk hamlets. Ukrainian Defense Forces units crossed the border and unexpectedly attacked from the west the Russian Armed Forces units defending in Makhnovka (south of Sudzha), secured positions in Guevo, crossed the Psel River, secured positions in Plekhovo, and attacked Borki.
• Mobile groups of Ukrainian Defense Forces advanced 25 kilometers into the Belovsky district of Kursk Oblast.
• Ukrainian Defense Forces crossed the border from Sumy Oblast near Kucherov and Goptarovka and rapidly advanced towards Belaya and its surroundings, quickly capturing tactically important territory. Fighting continues near Milaevka and Goptarovka.
• Ukrainian Defense Forces launched a combined missile and air strike on the Kursk-Vostochny airbase, where the 14th Fighter Aviation Regiment and the 332nd Helicopter Regiment are based. Another missile strike targeted a forward concentration area of the 155th Separate Marines Brigade of the Pacific Fleet.
• The Russian military command is focusing efforts on transferring reserves to stabilize the front line near Korenovo and Sudzha.
• The enemy’s 15th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade lost its positions in the villages of Olgovka and Vetreno, and one of its battalions was hit by a HIMARS rocket strike in Oktiabrskoe while moving in a column. The 128th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade was also struck by a HIMARS rocket strike while marching on the highway between Emmanuilovka and Liubimovka. The remnants of the brigade’s units engaged in battle near Bolshoye Soldatskoye. The 810th Separate Marines Brigade of the Black Sea Fleet arrived from the Pokrovsk direction and is occupying a defense line with three battalion tactical groups in the areas of Korenovo, Lgov, and Martynovka.
• On the Kharkiv direction, fighting continued near Hlyboke, Vovchansk, and Tykhe.
• On the Kupyansk direction, Russian troops advanced west of Novoselivske, north of Pishchane, west of Tabaiivka, and south of Berestove, attacking near Synkivka, Berestove, Stelmakhivka, Hlushkivka, and Pishchane.
• On the Lyman direction, Russian troops attacked near Nevske, Novosadove, Makiivka, Terny, and in the area of the Serebriansk Forest.
• On the Siversk Direction, Russian troops continued offensive actions near Bilohorivka, Verkhnokamyanske, Spirne, Ivano-Dariivka, and Vyimka.
• On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces conducted offensives near Chasiv Yar, including in the “Novy” and “Zhovtnevy” neighborhoods, as well as near Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, and Bila Hora.
• On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces conducted offensive operations in the area of Toretsk, Druzhba, Pivnichne, Zalizne, and New York, advancing in the northeastern part of Druzhba.
• On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces advanced north and west of Nevelske, up to 850 meters deep into the central and western parts of Ivanivka, capturing Zhelanne, Serhiivka, and Ivanivka, and reached the eastern outskirts of Hrodivka. They continued offensive operations in the areas of Vozdvyzhenka, Novooleksandrivka, Kalynove, Hrodivka, Novohrodivka, Zhelanne, Orlivka, Mykolaivka, and Karlivka.
• On the Kurakhove direction, Russian forces advanced southeast of Vodyane, in the northwestern part of Krasnohorivka, within Kostyantynivka, and near Pobieda, attacking in the area of Kostyantynivka, Paraskoviivka, and Vodyane.
• Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled an enemy attack southeast of Heorhiivka.
• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
  • Black Sea: 1 ship, including 1 cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 4 cruise missiles.  
  • Mediterranean Sea: 2 ships, including 1 cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 4 cruise missiles.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

• The “Española” Volunteer Brigade is operating in the “Novyi” neighborhood.
• The 79th and 272nd Motorized Rifle Regiments, the 138th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, two paratrooper battalions, and a Motorized Rifle Regiment from Belgorod Oblast (which might be recalled due to a breakthrough by Ukrainian Defense Forces) are arriving in Kursk Oblast from the Kharkiv direction. The 38th and 64th Motorized Rifle Brigades are arriving from the Zaporizhzhia direction. All these forces were part of the reserves of the enemy’s “Tsentr (Center)” and ” Yug (South)” military formations, with the airborne battalions being part of the strategic reserves.

Escalation indicators:

• Successful development of the Ukrainian Defense Forces’ operation in the Russian Kursk Oblast.

Possible operation situation developments:

• The Russian military command on the Kursk direction will have to quickly deploy a second echelon of additional troops and assets (reserves), as the troops of its first echelon will not be able to stop the offensive of the Ukrainian Defense Forces’ Operational Maneuver Group.
• On the Kupyansk direction, in the operational zone of the 1st Tank Army, command of the enemy’s “Zapad (West)” Operational Grouping will attempt to reach the Oskil River in the Hlushkivka – Zahryzove sector, the Petropavlivka – Kurylivka line, and storm Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi railway junction. To bind the “Khortytsia” OSG forces, the enemy will exert frontal pressure on their positions in the Stepova Novoselivka area.
• In the near future, “Tavriya” OSG units will be forced to retreat westward beyond the Vovcha River under simultaneous pressure from the enemy’s 27th Motorized Rifle Division, 90th Tank Division, and 114th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade. There is a high probability of an enemy breakthrough between Mezhove and Skuchne in the general direction of Komyshivka.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 12.08.24  

Personnel – almost 592,000 (+1080); 

Tanks 8,450 (+3);

Armored combat vehicles – 16,368 (+5); 

Artillery systems – 16,728 (+65);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,146 (+3);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 919 (+1);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 22,590 (+66);

Aircraft – 366 (0);

Helicopters – 328 (+1);

UAV operational and tactical level – 13,472 (+73);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,426 (+1);

Boats/ships – 29 (0).

Humanitarian+general:

• Russian forces carried out 21 shelling attacks of border areas and villages in Sumy Oblast during the night and morning of August 12. In Sumy, two apartment buildings were damaged by an airstrike on August 11. No victims were reported.
• At around 8:00 p.m. on August 11, a fire was reported at a cooling tower of the temporarily occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. No radioactive material releases were detected as a result of the fire, according to Deputy Minister of Energy Svitlana Hrynchuk.
• A local resident was injured due to a morning Russian shelling of Kherson. Paramedics hospitalized the victim with an explosive injury.
• On August 12, around 11:20 AM, in the city of Vovchansk, in Kharkiv Oblast, a 73-year-old man was injured as a result of a strike by an enemy drone.
• Around noon, Russian forces opened artillery fire on the town of Ukrainsk in Donetsk Oblast. As a result, two people were killed, and one was injured.
• In the Bilozerka community of Kherson Oblast, a man and a woman were injured when a Russian drone dropped explosives on their car.
• As a result of shelling by the Russian army in the Dnipro district of Kherson on the evening of July 12, a 61-year-old man was injured.
• On August 12, the Russian army killed two people and injured one in Donetsk Oblast. In Kostyantynivka, it killed a 35-year-old woman and injured a 40-year-old man. In the city, one private house was destroyed, and five others were damaged. Another man was killed in Toretsk.
• Since last Tuesday, August 6, approximately 3,800 people have been evacuated from dangerous areas of Sumy Oblast.
• Since the beginning of martial law, over 40,000 Ukrainian citizens have returned from Russia, not only through the Pokrovka-Kolotylivka checkpoint in Sumy Oblast but also through other areas and via Belarusian territory, according to Andriy Demchenko, spokesperson for the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine.
• The occupiers in Crimea have initiated 913 cases for “discrediting the Russian Armed Forces,” according to the Permanent Representation of the President of Ukraine in Crimea. Of these, rulings have been issued in 811 cases, and 18 cases are still under consideration.
• A critical situation with the supply of life-saving insulin has developed in the temporarily occupied Donetsk due to a money-laundering scheme created by the occupying authorities for the supply of medicines, reports the Center for National Resistance under the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine.
• The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) warns that in the near future, Russian special services may stage crimes, particularly against the civilian population of Kursk Oblast, in order to later blame the Ukrainian side for their commission.

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