Центр оборонних стратегій

Russia’s war on Ukraine. 16.08.24

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational Group of Forces (OTG) “Kharkiv” on the Kharkiv direction, there were 7 battles near Lyptsi, Starytsya, and Vovchansk

In the “Khortytsia” Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) operational zone on the Kupyansk direction, there were 16 clashes. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled assaults near Synkivka, Hlushkivka, Kolisnykivka, Andriivka, Kruhlyakivka, Stelmakhivka, and Berestove.  On the Lyman direction, the enemy attacked 10 times near Makiivka, Nevske, Torske, and Terny. On the Siversk direction, there were also 10 clashes. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled assaults by Russian invaders near Verkhnokamyanske, Bilohorivka, Pereyizne, and Vyimka. On the Kramatorsk direction, 4 battles took place in the area of Chasiv Yar, with no success for the enemy. On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces attacked 20 times near Zalizne, Toretsk, Pivnichne, and New York.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zoneon the Pokrovsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 41 enemy assault attempts in the areas of Panteleimonivka, Vozdvyzhenka, Sukha Balka, Kalynove, Zelene Pole, Novotoretske, Mykolaivka, Novohrodivka, Novozhelanne, Skuchne, and Ptyche. On the Kurakhove direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces stopped 19 enemy attacks near Paraskoviivka, Heorhiivka, Krasnohorivka, and Kostyantynivka. On the Vremivka direction, the enemy attacked 5 times, particularly towards Vodyane, Rivnopil, and Kostyantynivka. On the Orikhiv direction, Russian forces conducted 2 assaults on Ukrainian positions near Mala Tokmachka.

In the operational zone of “Odesa” OSG on the Prydniprovskiy direction, the enemy suffered defeat after attacking Ukrainian defensive lines 10 times.

General conclusion:

  • Russian forces maintain a relatively high pace of advance in Donetsk Oblast.
  • Russian forces continue the tactical encirclement of Ukrainian troops southeast of Pokrovsk, where they have advanced east of Pokrovsk within the areas of Hrodivka and southeast of Pokrovsk within the areas of Mykolaivka, Zhelanne, and Orlivka, capturing Orlivka and Zhelanne.
  • There have been no significant changes in the grouping of Russian forces in southern Ukraine.
  • On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces have a 10:1 advantage in infantry.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

  • There were 144 combat engagements on various fronts.
  • On the Kursk Direction: Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to advance in some areas of Kursk Oblast. Battles near Korenevo persisted without significant changes on the front line, with ongoing operations in Safonovka and continued attacks near Kauchuk. Ukrainian forces captured Bondarevka and advanced east of Plekhovo.
  • Fighting continued in Martynovka, where Russian forces repelled Ukrainian troops near Giri. Reports indicate that Ukrainian forces captured 102 Russian servicemen from the 488th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 144th Motorized Rifle Division of the 20th Combined Arms Army.
  • Ukrainian forces temporarily seized the Kolotilovka border checkpoint in Belgorod Oblast, but Russian forces quickly responded and pushed them back.
  • On the Kharkiv direction, Russian forces continued their offensive in the area of Sotnytsky Kozachok, near Lyptsi, Hlyboke, Starytsya, and Vovchansk, advancing west of Hlyboke and near Lukyantsi. Russian aviation significantly reduced its activity in the north of Kharkiv Oblast after Ukrainian forces began their incursion into Kursk Oblast.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces attacked in the area of Synkivka, Petropavlivka, Hlushkivka, Kruhlyakivka, Berestove, and Stelmakhivka.
  • On the Lyman direction, Russian forces attacked near Makiivka, Nevske, and Terny.
  • On the Siversk Direction, Russian forces conducted offensive operations in the area of Bilohorivka, near Verkhnokamyanske, Spirne, Vyimka, and Pereyizne.
  • On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces advanced near Chasiv Yar, Andriivka, and attacked southwest of Klishchiivka.
  • On the Toretsk direction, the 109th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the Territorial Troops of the 1st Army Corps captured Zalizne, advanced in the area of Pivnichne, near New York, towards Panteleimonivka, and attacked near Toretsk, Zalizne, Pivnichne, and New York.
  • On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces continue their tactical encirclement of Ukrainian Defense Forces southeast of Pokrovsk. They recently advanced within Hrodivka, Mykolaivka, Zhelanne, and Orlivka (all southeast of Pokrovsk) and likely captured Ivanivka, Zhelanne, and Orlivka. They advanced near and within Zhuravka, in the Zhuravka–Orlivka–Mykolaivka–Zhelanne area, and conducted offensive operations near Zelenyi Hai, Vozdvyzhenka, Kalynove, Novotoretske, Mykolaivka, Yelyzavetivka, Hrodivka, Novohrodivka, Skuchne, Orlivka, Yasnobrodivka, Ptyche, and Zhelanne.
  • On the Kurakhove direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled an enemy attack along the H15 highway in Heorhiivka. A similar-sized attack occurred in the Mykilske area. Russian forces advanced into northern Krasnohorivka and central Kostyantynivka. Battles continued in the Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Kostyantynivka, Vodyane, and Vuhledar areas.
  • On the Orikhiv direction, Russian forces attacked near Mala Tokmachka and Novodanylivka.
  • n the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
    • Black Sea: 1 ship, including 1 cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 4 cruise missiles.  
    • Mediterranean Sea: 1 ship, including 0 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 0 cruise missiles.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

  • Units of the 200th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 14th Army Corps and the “Grom-Kaskad” UAV Brigade operate in Kursk Oblast.

Escalation indicators:

  • Successful development of the Ukrainian Defense Forces’ operation in the Russian Kursk Oblast.

Possible operation situation developments:

  • The sides are deploying reserves to the Belitsa and Giri areas of Kursk Oblast, where combat clashes are expected to occur in the next day or two.
  • Stagnation of battles is expected on the Vremivka and Kurakhove directions, and later on the Kharkiv, Kupyansk, and Lyman directions.
  • The Russian military command on the Kursk direction will have to quickly deploy a second echelon of additional troops and assets (reserves), as the troops of its first echelon will not be able to stop the offensive of the Ukrainian Defense Forces’ Operational Maneuver Group.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, in the operational zone of the 1st Tank Army, command of the enemy’s “Zapad (West)” Operational Grouping will attempt to reach the Oskil River in the Hlushkivka – Zahryzove sector, the Petropavlivka – Kurylivka line, and storm Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi railway junction. To bind the “Khortytsia” OSG forces, the enemy will exert frontal pressure on their positions in the Stepova Novoselivka area.
  • On the Pokrovsk direction, the enemy will attempt to advance to the Orlivka-Mykolaivka line.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 16.08.24  

Personnel – almost 596,950 (+1330); 

Tanks 8,496 (+12);

Armored combat vehicles – 16,461 (+35); 

Artillery systems – 16,927 (+59);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,159 (+5);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 922 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 22,848 (+73);

Aircraft – 367 (0);

Helicopters – 328 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 13,659 (+61);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,429 (+1);

Boats/ships – 29 (0).

Humanitarian+general:

  • On the night of August 16, Russian forces launched three ballistic missiles and five UAVs at Ukraine. All drones were intercepted.
  • In Kyiv on the night of August 16, explosion sounds were heard due to air defense operations against a strike drone. There were no damages or casualties reported.
  • On the evening of August 15, and during the night and morning of August 16, Russian troops attacked the Nikopol district in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. They used artillery, kamikaze drones, and dropped munitions from UAVs, damaging infrastructure, a communal enterprise, and residential buildings. There were no casualties reported during the Russian strikes.
  • On August 6, 2024, around 00:10, the enemy dropped a guided aerial bomb on civilian infrastructure in the Krasnopil community of Sumy Oblast. Two women, aged 74 and 53, were injured.
  • In the Kutsurubska community of Mykolaiv Oblast, three police officers were injured due to an attack by Russian FPV drones on a service vehicle.
  • Due to constant shelling from Russia, 21,000 people have already been evacuated from the Sumy Oblast, with another 25,000 citizens awaiting evacuation.
  • Eight more children who were in temporarily occupied territories and Russia have been returned to Ukraine. Among the children is a 16-year-old girl from the Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast. In 2021, she moved to Russia to live with her father, who tragically died in a car accident. Despite efforts by Russian authorities to persuade her to stay and accept guardianship by Russian citizens, she wanted to return to her mother.
  • Currently, 1,917 employees of the Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs are in Russian captivity.
  • Next week, Ukraine might resume scheduled power outages due to the hot weather and, as a result, increased electricity consumption, reported Svetlana Hrynchuk, Deputy Minister of Energy of Ukraine.

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