Центр оборонних стратегій

Russia’s war on Ukraine. 17.08.24

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational Group of Forces (OTG) “Kharkiv” on the Kharkiv direction, the occupiers launched 9 attacks near Lyptsi and Vovchansk.

In the “Khortytsia” Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) operational zone on the Kupyansk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 10 enemy attacks in the areas of Hlushkivka, Andriivka, and Kruhlyakivka. The enemy attacked 6 times on the Lyman direction, unsuccessfully attempting to advance near Makiivka, Torske, and Nevske. On the Siversk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 7 enemy assault actions in the areas of Verkhnyokamianske, Pereyizne, and Spirne. On the Kramatorsk direction, there were 3 combat engagements with enemy activity near Chasiv Yar and Hryhorivka. All enemy attempts to dislodge Ukrainian Defense Forces were futile. Supported by aviation, the enemy made 11 attempts to breach Ukrainian defenses on the Toretsk direction, attacking positions near Dyliivka, Pivnichne, Toretsk, Zalizne, Nelypivka, and New York.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zoneon the Pokrovsk direction, intense fighting took place in the areas of Panteleimonivka, Vodyane, Vozdvyzhenka, Ivanivka, Zhelanne, Hrodivka, Novohrodivka, Novozhelanne, Ptyche, and Zelenyi Hai. On the Kurakhove direction, there were 10 unsuccessful combat engagements for the occupiers. The enemy remains most active near Krasnohorivka and Kostyantynivka. On the Vremivka direction, one combat engagement occurred near Kostyantynivka.  On the Orikhiv direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled an enemy attack in the area of Mala Tokmachka.

In the operational zone of “Odesa” OSG on the Prydniprovskiy direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces units successfully repelled 3 enemy assaults.

General conclusion:

  • The Ukrainian Defense Forces’ demolition of bridges in Glushkovo and Zvannoe in Kursk Oblast has disrupted enemy logistics in the area and reinforced Ukrainian defenses against attacks from the west.
  • The enemy’s resupply capabilities in Vovchansk are severely restricted. Only infantry units can bring supplies to the front lines, and vehicle-based resupply is limited to forces in the northern sector of Vovchansk. The enemy is testing UAVs for supply runs.
  • During the week, the enemy captured Vesele, Vovche, Tymofiivka, and Novoselivka Persha, and is close to occupying Yasnobrodivka and Pivdenne.
  • The enemy’s units have advanced approximately 3 km near Zhelanne, 2.2 km near Ivanivka, 1 km near Yuriivka and Vesele, 800 m near New York, Zalizne, and Vovche, 500 m near Pishchane, Krasnohorivka, Yasnobrodivka, 400 m near Novooleksandrivka, Oleksandropil, Paraskoviivka, Tymofiivka, Panteleimonivka, and 300 m near Lozuvatske and Kostyantynivka.
  • Up to 80% of POWs on the Kursk direction are conscripted servicemen.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

  • There were 99 combat engagements on various fronts.
  • On the Kursk Direction: Ukrainian Defense Forces pushed east of Mirnoe and south of Spalnoe, conducting operations in the Borki area. Combat persisted around Ruske Porechie, Agronom, along the Giri-Kamyshnoe-Krupets-Spalnoe line. Ukrainian mobile units executed targeted assaults along the frontline near Korenevo and west of Snagost. Ukrainian forces took out two bridges in Glushkovo and Zvannoe in the Glushkovo district of Kursk Oblast.
  • Russian forces repelled an attack by Ukrainian Defense Forces in the direction of Gordeevka, west of Anastasievka, and southeast of Kauchuk, and struck near Otruby. They also installed a significant number of anti-tank fortifications (“dragon’s teeth”) along the border and heavily mined the area.
  • Ukrainian Defense Forces units that had attacked Kolotilovka and advanced into the western part of Belgorod Oblast have been withdrawn to Ukrainian territory.
  • On the Kharkiv direction, Russian forces continued offensive operations near Lyptsi, Starytsya, and Vovchansk, but were unsuccessful.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces advanced up to 3.6 km north of Pishchane, continuing offensive operations near Synkivka, Hlushkivka, Kruhlyakivka, Kolisnykivka, Berestove, Stelmakhivka, Andriivka, and Lozova. They also struck crossings over the Oskil River and increased efforts near Pishchane, Berestove, and Synkivka.
  • On the Lyman direction, Russian forces attacked near Makiivka, Nevske, Torske, and Terny.
  • On the Siversk Direction, Russian forces continued offensive actions near Bilohorivka, Verkhnyokamianske, Spirne, Vyimka, and Pereyizne.
  • On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces advanced across the Siversky Donets-Donbas canal north of Ozaryanivka. Units of the 1307th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 6th Motorized Rifle Division of the 3rd Army Corps completed the clearing of Klishchiivka. The enemy continued their advance in the areas of Chasiv Yar, Hryhorivka, and near Klishchiivka.
  • On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces advanced southwest of Zalizne, reaching the spoil heap on the southwestern outskirts of Pivnichne. Russian reconnaissance groups attempted to penetrate Toretsk itself, but Ukrainian Defense Forces decisively repelled them. The enemy continued offensive actions near Toretsk, Bila Hora, Pivnichne, Zalizne, New York, Nelypivka, Sukha Balka, and Panteleimonivka.
  • On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces advanced within the southeastern part of Hrodivka, operated east of Pokrovsk, advanced south of Vozdvyzhenka, east of Svyrydonivka, west of Novotoretske, and east of Hrodivka, southeast of Zhelanne, and captured Mykolaivka. They continued offensive operations near Zelenyi Hai, Vozdvyzhenka, Hrodivka, Kalynove, Novotoretske, Novohrodivka, Novozhelanne, Skuchne, Ptyche, Zhelanne, Mykolaivka, and Karlivka. The 74th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 41st Combined Arms Army captured Ivanivka.
  • Ukrainian Defense Forces units are withdrawing from positions near Karlivka.
  • On the Kurakhove direction, Russian forces continued offensive operations near Heorhiivka, Krasnohorivka, Oleksandrivka, Paraskoviivka, Kostyantynivka, and Vodyane, advancing 400 meters within Kostyantynivka and reaching the center of the town.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
    • Black Sea: 1 ship, including 1 cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 4 cruise missiles.  
    • Mediterranean Sea: 2 ships, including 0 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 0 cruise missiles.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

  • The command of the enemy’s “Sever (North)” Operational Grouping has regrouped its units, strengthening its command system in the Lyptsi area. It has deployed motorcycle units operating near Ohirtseve and is regrouping the “4th Volunteer Assault Brigade” and the 82nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 69th Motorized Rifle Division of the 6th Combined Arms Army in the central part of Vovchansk.
  • The 173rd Separate Reconnaissance Battalion of the 106th Airborne Division is operating near Fedorivka.
  • Units of the 1442nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 6th Motorized Rifle Division of the 3rd Army Corps are active in the Chasiv Yar area.

Escalation indicators:

  • Successful development of the Ukrainian Defense Forces’ operation in the Russian Kursk Oblast.

Possible operation situation developments:

  • The sides are deploying reserves to the Belitsa and Giri areas of Kursk Oblast, where combat clashes are expected to occur in the next day or two.
  • The Russian military command on the Kursk direction will have to quickly deploy a second echelon of additional troops and assets (reserves), as the troops of its first echelon will not be able to stop the offensive of the Ukrainian Defense Forces’ Operational Maneuver Group.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, in the operational zone of the 1st Tank Army, command of the enemy’s “Zapad (West)” Operational Grouping will attempt to reach the Oskil River in the Hlushkivka – Zahryzove sector, the Petropavlivka – Kurylivka line, and storm Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi railway junction. To bind the “Khortytsia” OSG forces, the enemy will exert frontal pressure on their positions in the Stepova Novoselivka area.
  • On the Pokrovsk direction, the enemy will attempt to advance to the Orlivka-Mykolaivka line.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 17.08.24  

Personnel – almost 598,180 (+1230); 

Tanks 8,501 (+5);

Armored combat vehicles – 16,473 (+12); 

Artillery systems – 16,985 (+58);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,160 (+1);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 923 (+1);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 22,913 (+65);

Aircraft – 367 (0);

Helicopters – 328 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 13,714 (+55);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,432 (+3);

Boats/ships – 29 (0).

Humanitarian+general:

  • Throughout August 16, Russian forces carried out 48 shelling attacks in Sumy Oblast, including airstrikes with KAB bombs on four communities, resulting in 161 explosions.
  • Over the past day, the occupiers struck 15 towns and villages in Zaporizhzhia Oblast more than 400 times, including almost 299 attacks by drones of various types. There were 15 reports of damage to residential buildings and infrastructure, but no civilian casualties.
  • On August 16, Russian forces launched 2,382 attacks on Donetsk Oblast, damaging 27 civilian objects. Two residents of Donetsk Oblast were killed and two others were injured.
  • During the night, Ukrainian air defense forces shot down all 14 “Shahed” drones launched by Russia. In addition to the “Shaheds,” the Russians launched an “Iskander-K” cruise missile at Sumy, which could not be intercepted. The missile hit a parking lot near the city center, injuring two people and destroying 10 civilian vehicles.
  • Russian forces struck Kozacha Lopan in Kharkiv Oblast overnight, killing a woman.
  • In Kramatorsk, Donetsk Oblast, on August 17, a Russian strike destroyed a residential building. Rescuers pulled a man from the rubble, who is now in critical condition.
  • Throughout the day, the enemy attacked Nikopol district of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast about 15 times, using artillery and kamikaze drones. The attacks targeted Nikopol, Marhanets, Pokrovska, and Myrivska communities. A 30-year-old man was injured and hospitalized in moderate condition.
  • In the evening, the city of Myrnohrad in Donetsk Oblast came under enemy fire again. Russian forces hit an unfinished nine-story building, resulting in one death and four injuries.
  • On August 16, a video surfaced on social media showing Russian Armed Forces members displaying the head of an alleged Ukrainian soldier impaled on a spike. According to the Deep State analytical project, the crime took place at the Kolotilovka checkpoint in Belgorod Oblast, Russia.

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