Russia’s war on Ukraine. 20.08.24

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational Group of Forces (OTG) “Kharkiv” the enemy continued offensive and assault actions on the Kharkiv direction, with a total of 15 combat engagements occurring. Fighting took place in the areas of Lyptsi and Vovchansk.

In the “Khortytsia” Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) operational zone on the Kupyansk direction, there were 14 combat engagements. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled enemy attacks in the areas of Hlushkivka, Stelmakhivka, Kruhlyakivka, Synkivka, Andriivka, and towards Lozova. On the Lyman direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces stopped 11 enemy attacks in the areas of Hrekivka, Novosadove, Makiivka, Nevske, Novoserhiivka, Novoyehorivka, and Torske. On the Siversk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 10 attacks near Ivano-Dariivka, Spirne, and Verkhnyokamianske. On the Kramatorsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces thwarted 7 enemy attempts to break through their defense lines in the areas of Ivanivske and Andriivka. The enemy made 24 attempts to advance on the Toretsk direction, operating in the areas of Pivnichne, New York, Nelipivka, Zalizne, and most actively near Toretsk.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone, on the Pokrovsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 63 attacks, with the enemy concentrating efforts in the areas of Novohrodivka, Mykhailivka, and Vozdvyzhenka. On the Kurakhove direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold back the enemy in the areas of Nevelske and Kostyantynivka, where the occupiers made 11 attempts to break through the defense. On the Vremivka direction, the enemy made 5 attempts to capture positions near Vodyane and Vuhledar and also attacked from the direction of Volodymyrivka and Solodke.

In the operational zone of “Odesa” OSG on the Prydniprovskiy direction, one Russian assault on Ukrainian positions was repelled.

General conclusion:

• On the Kramatorsk direction, the enemy conducted 5 unsuccessful assaults near Andriivka and Ivanivske within a day and was unable to cross the Siversky Donets-Donbas canal.
• On the Toretsk direction, the enemy increased the number of attacks to 21, including 5 night assaults, but was unable to enter the city, resorting to destruction through artillery and airstrikes.
• On the Pokrovsk direction, the most intense fighting continues in the areas of Vozdvyzhenka, Mykhailivka, and Novohrodivka, where more than half of the combat clashes occurred. Reserves are constantly being brought to this area. Given the level of losses, the enemy is unlikely to capture Pokrovsk. An increase in artillery and airstrikes on the city is expected.
• Russian forces have carried out 1,940 attacks on Ukraine’s healthcare infrastructure since the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022. 86% of the strikes targeted medical facilities directly. These attacks have significantly intensified since December 2023 and are now occurring almost daily.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

• There were 158 combat engagements on various fronts.
• On the Kursk Direction: Ukrainian Defense Forces continued their gradual advances in Vishniovka, within the area of Russkoe Porechie, to the east of Agronom, and to the east of Spalnoe. Reconnaissance patrols of Ukrainian Defense Forces operated to the south of Skrylevka and Sheptukhovo. Fighting persisted near Korenevo, Olgovka, the western part of Sudzha, and in Martynovka, with clashes ongoing along the international border near Tetkino. An airstrike by Ukrainian Defense Forces destroyed the last bridge over the Seym River in Karizh.
• On the Kharkiv direction, Russian forces advanced south of Hlyboke and continued their offensive in the areas of Lyptsi and Vovchansk. The enemy continues to regroup and rotate personnel to the north and northeast of Kharkiv.
• On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces advanced southwest of Novoselivske, southwest of Andriivka, and near Tabaiivka and Pishchane. They conducted offensive actions in the areas of Hlushkivka, Stelmakhivka, and Kruhlyakivka.
• On the Lyman direction, elements of the enemy’s 3rd Motorized Rifle Division, 20th Combined Arms Army, advanced in the area of Makiivka. The enemy also attacked near Makiivka, Ploshchanka, Nevske, Novosadove, Hrekivka, Torske, and Terny.
• On the Siversk Direction, Russian forces captured the Vyimka railway station, advanced to the east of it, and attacked in the areas of Verkhnyokamianske, Spirne, and Ivano-Dariivka.
• On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces captured and cleared a Ukrainian position to the east of the “Zhovtnevyy” neighborhood. Fighting continued near Hryhorivka, Kalynivka, Ivanivske, Andriivka, Klishchiivka, Predtechyne, and Stupochky.
• On the Toretsk direction, the enemy advanced through an electrical substation west of Zalizne and is moving towards Nelipivka. Russian forces captured New York, but Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold positions on the northern outskirts of the village, disrupting the enemy’s efforts to advance north towards Nelipivka and supporting the resistance against enemy units on the southern outskirts. Fighting continued near Toretsk.
• On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces captured Zavitne and Novozhelanne and are advancing towards Komyshivka and Ptyche. Ukrainian Defense Forces units are withdrawing from these villages to avoid tactical encirclement. The enemy reached the outskirts of Hrodivka and Novohrodivka and attacked near Vozdvyzhenka, Zelene Polye, Kalynove, Myrolyubivka, Mykolaivka, and Skuchne.
• On the Kurakhove direction, Russian forces continued their offensive but made no advances. The enemy attacked near Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Kostyantynivka, Paraskoviivka, Vodyane, and Vuhledar, advancing in the northwestern part of Pavlivka and consolidating positions near the “Pivdennodonbaska No. 1” mine shaft. They captured two positions along the T0524 highway between Vuhledar and Kostyantynivka.
• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
  • Mediterranean Sea: 2 ships, including 0 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 0 cruise missiles.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

• Units of the 810th Separate Marines Brigade of the Black Sea Fleet have arrived in Kursk Oblast and are operating near Olgovka. Near Sudzha, the “Ayd” unit of the “Akhmat” Special Purpose Battalion is active. The reconnaissance and airborne company “Varyag” from the 155th Separate Marines Brigade of the Pacific Fleet is operating in the Kursk Oblast. The “Phoenix” Special Mining Battalion, which had been active in the Chasiv Yar area, has been spotted near Martynovka in Kursk Oblast.

Escalation indicators:

• Escalation of combat intensity on the Pokrovsk direction.

Possible operation situation developments:

• The sides are deploying reserves to the Belitsa and Giri areas of Kursk Oblast, where combat clashes are expected to occur in the next day or two.
• On the Kupyansk direction, in the operational zone of the 1st Tank Army, command of the enemy’s “Zapad (West)” Operational Grouping will attempt to reach the Oskil River in the Hlushkivka – Zahryzove sector, the Petropavlivka – Kurylivka line, and storm Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi railway junction. To bind the “Khortytsia” OSG forces, the enemy will exert frontal pressure on their positions in the Stepova Novoselivka area.
• On the Pokrovsk direction, the enemy will likely attempt to cut off the Pokrovsk–Kostyantynivka highway and prepare for an assault on the Pokrovsk–Myrnohrad agglomeration.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 20.08.24  

Personnel – almost 601,800 (+1330); 

Tanks 8,518 (+5);

Armored combat vehicles – 16,521 (+26); 

Artillery systems – 17,156 (+52);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,166 (+1);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 926 (+1);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 23,142 (+95);

Aircraft – 367 (0);

Helicopters – 328 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 13,864 (+55);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,438 (+1);

Boats/ships – 29 (0).

Humanitarian+general:

• During the previous day, Russian forces shelled Sumy Oblast 69 times, injuring four people in two communities. A total of 256 explosions were recorded.
• On the night of August 20, Russian invaders attacked Ukraine with two Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles, an Iskander-K cruise missile, X-59 guided air-launched missiles, and 26 Shahed-type strike UAVs; 28 aerial targets were successfully destroyed, including 1 Iskander-K, 2 X-59 missiles, and 25 strike UAVs.
• During the night attack, Russian occupiers targeted an industrial facility in Ternopil Oblast, causing a fire after hitting a storage container holding fuel and lubricants. Residents are urged to tightly close their windows and avoid prolonged time outdoors.
• At night and in the morning, the enemy attempted to attack Kyiv Oblast. Debris from downed Russian Shaheds and missiles damaged four private houses.
• On the afternoon of August 20, Russian troops attacked Kindiyka and Sadove in the outskirts of Kherson using drones, injuring two civilians.
• In the village of Kozacha Lopan in Kharkiv Oblast, Russian forces conducted a targeted attack using FPV drones on civilian vehicles. A 64-year-old local resident sustained severe injuries and died. Three others were injured.
• In Kherson Oblast, Russians attacked a 60-year-old woman from the village of Vesele in the Novokakhovka community with a drone, injuring her.
• In the evening of August 20, Russian military forces targeted a children’s café in Malokaterynivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, resulting in injuries to three children.
• Since the start of the full-scale war in Ukraine, 303 people, including 15 children, have died from Russian explosive devices, and 703 people have been injured.
• Since February 2022, 85-90% of buildings in the Lyman community in Donetsk Oblast have been damaged or destroyed by Russian shelling.
• In the Lyman community in Donetsk Oblast, 266 civilians were killed during the Russian occupation in 2022, and the identities of 30 bodies could not be established after exhumation.
• The number of Ukrainian women interested in military service has significantly increased: about 20% of all inquiries to recruitment centers are from women, according to the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine.

Centre for Defence Strategies (CDS) is a Ukrainian security think tank. We operate since 2020.

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