Центр оборонних стратегій

Russia’s war on Ukraine. 25.08.24

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational Group of Forces (OTG) “Kharkiv” on the Kharkiv direction, fighting occurred near Hlyboke and Vovchansk

In the “Khortytsia” Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) operational zone the enemy launched 14 attacks on the Kupyansk direction Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled assaults near Novoselivka, Stelmakhivka, Synkivka, and Hlushkivka. On the Lyman direction, there were 14 engagements near Druzhelyubivka, Makiivka, Novosadove, Nevske, and Dibrova. On the Siversk direction, there were 9 clashes. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled Russian assaults near Verkhnyokamianske, Bilohorivka, Vyimka, and Spirne. On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces attacked 19 times near Stupochky, Chasiv Yar, Kalynivka, Hryhorivka, and Predtechyne. On the Toretsk direction, there were 14 battles near Nelipivka, Toretsk, New York, and Dyliivka.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zoneon the Pokrovsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 58 enemy assaults, particularly in the areas of Vozdvyzhenka, Kalynove, Zelene Pole, Myrolyubivka, Hrodivka, Ptyche, and Novohrodivka. The highest concentration of attacks was near Novohrodivka and Kalynove. On the Kurakhove direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces stopped 18 enemy attacks near Karlivka, Heorhiivka, Mykhailivka, Krasnohorivka, and Kostyantynivka. On the Vremivka direction, Russian forces attempted to advance 8 times towards Vodyane, Vuhledar, and Katerynivka but failed. On the Orikhiv direction, there were 3 engagements near Novoandriivka and Shcherbaky.

General conclusion:

  • Russian forces rapidly construct field fortifications south and southwest of Kurchatov and have begun building up their positions near Dolgoe.
  • Due to the involvement of troops from the Leningrad Military District in combat operations on various fronts, the enemy’s military command will not be able to quickly concentrate and deploy them to push the “Siversk” OSG out of the area between the Seym and Psel rivers. The forces and resources available to the enemy on the Kursk direction are only capable of addressing a limited set of tasks.
  • Pulling the 47th Tank Division of the 1st Tank Army out of the operational zone will stall the advance toward the Oskil River, as it’s the main force driving the offensive on this direction.
  • Any reserves that may become available to the enemy’s command on the theater of operations are likely to be allocated to the commander of the enemy’s “Tsentr (Center)” Operational Grouping on the Pokrovsk and Toretsk direction. The command will avoid redeploying troops from the “Dnepr” Operational Grouping due to concerns about a potential Ukrainian incursion into Crimea. The estimated reserve strength is around 50-60 thousand personnel.
  • In the past 2-3 days, the enemy has significantly increased the intensity of attacks on the Kramatorsk and Toretsk directions. The enemy assaults Chasiv Yar and Toretsk.
  • The enemy is attempting to advance from the east toward Kostyantynivka, but the forces trying to break through lack the necessary combat potential, and reserves are clearly insufficient.
  • On the Pokrovsk direction, the enemy is beginning to experience resource shortages. The number of advance directions has decreased from 7 to 3 in the space of two weeks.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

  • There were 160 combat engagements on various fronts.
  • On the Kursk Direction: “Siversk” OSG continued its offensive in Kursk Oblast, attempting to bypass Korenovo by attacking near Olgovka, Malaya Loknya, Cherkasskoe Porechie, and Russkaya Konopelka.
  • Russian forces tried to regain control over Borki but failed. They repelled attacks near Komarovka and Snagost. Units of the 30th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 72nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 44th Army Corps, the 810th Separate Marines Brigade of the Black Sea Fleet, and Chechen units are defending in the area of Martynovka. The enemy conducted anti-sabotage operations near Kamyshovka.
  • Fighting continued near Spalnoe, Krupets, and Kamyshnoe.
  • On the Kharkiv direction, battles continued near Hlyboke, Lyptsi, and Vovchansk. “Kharkiv” OTG conducted counterattacks northwest of Vovchansk near Hatyshche and Ohirtseve.
  • In the area of Hlyboke, the enemy intensified UAV air reconnaissance and is fortifying forward positions. A heavy sniper group from the 155th Separate Marines Brigade of the Pacific Fleet is operating in this direction.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces continued their offensive near Synkivka, Petropavlivka, Stepova Novoselivka, Kurylivka, and Stelmakhivka.
  • Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked near Novovodyane and regained control over previously lost positions in this area.
  • On the Lyman direction, the enemy attacked near Makiivka, Druzhelyubivka, Novosadove, Nevske, Terny, and Torske.
  • On the Siversk Direction, Russian forces continued their offensive in the areas of Bilohorivka, Verkhnyokamianske, Vyimka, and Spirne.
  • On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces continued their advance in the area of Chasiv Yar, making progress near Kalynivka, within the “Zhovtnevyi” neighborhood, and near Ivanivske and Stupochky.
  • On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces advanced close to the eastern outskirts of Toretsk, attacking near Dyliivka, Nelipivka, and New York.
  • On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces advanced near Pokrovsk, northeast of Mykolaivka, on the southeastern outskirts of Novohrodivka, captured the city council building, south of Hrodivka, reached the eastern outskirts of Karlivka, captured Krasnyi Yar, and continued offensive actions in the areas of Vozdvyzhenka, Myrolyubivka, Zelene Pole, Kalynove, Kruty Yar, Novohrodivka, Ptyche, Mykolaivka, Mykhailivka, and Karlivka.
  • On the Kurakhove direction, fighting continued near Krasnohorivka and Heorhiivka. The enemy is advancing towards Kostyantynivka and attacked near Vodyane, Katerynivka, and Vuhledar.
  • On the Orikhiv direction, battles continued in the area of Novoandriivka and Shcherbaky.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
    • Mediterranean Sea: 2 ships, including 0 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 0 cruise missiles.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

  • The 83rd Separate Air Assault Brigade, along with the 155th and 810th Separate Marines Brigades, which arrived to reinforce efforts in the Vovchansk area, are being redeployed to Kursk Oblast.
  • Units of the 110th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 51st Combined Arms Army operate near Krasnohorivka.
  • The formation of the 24th BARS “Kursk” detachment has begun.

Possible operation situation developments:

  • The development of the “Siversk” OSG operation will require the enemy’s command on the theater of war to regroup forces towards the Kursk direction from other operational zones, primarily from the “Zapad (West),” “Yug (South),” and “Vostok (East)” Operational Groupings. We should expect the redeployment of the 47th Tank Division of the 1st Tank Army from the Kupyansk direction, the 6th Motorized Rifle Division and the 72nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 3rd Army Corps from the Kramatorsk direction, and parts of the 35th Combined Arms Army from the Orikhiv direction.
  • The enemy will have to withdraw the units of the 155th Separate Marines Brigade of the Pacific Fleet from Kulbaki, as they are engaged in combat on the southern flank of the brigade and risk being cut off. It is expected that units of the 98th Airborne Division will be redeployed to the area south of the Seim River.
  • The enemy has advanced towards Toretsk from three directions and is capable of entering the city and engaging in street fighting, but it will not be able to capture the city in the short term.
  • On the Pokrovsk direction, the enemy will likely attempt to cut off the Pokrovsk–Kostyantynivka highway and prepare for an assault on the Pokrovsk–Myrnohrad agglomeration. It can be assumed that the enemy will reach the city by mid-September, but they will not be able to capture it. The open terrain, which is unfavorable for an offensive, and potential counterattacks from the Selydove and Kostyantynivka areas will slow their advance.
  • The enemy’s advance through Hrodivka on the Pokrovsk direction is likely to slow down as Russian forces begin fighting in an urban environment. It will be difficult for them to maintain their current pace of advance, particularly as they attempt to push further west towards Myrnohrad and Pokrovsk, as these cities are even more urbanized.
  • By the end of this year, the enemy will not only fail to occupy Donetsk Oblast within its administrative borders but also will be unable to seize the “fortress belt” of Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka-Kramatorsk-Slovyansk. The upcoming battle for Pokrovsk will be the climax of the enemy’s offensive operation on the Southwestern theater of war in 2024.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 25.08.24  

Personnel – almost 607,680 (+1190); 

Tanks 8,547 (+5);

Armored combat vehicles – 16,631 (+10); 

Artillery systems – 17,396 (+47);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,171 (+2);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 936 (+1);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 23,475 (+92);

Aircraft – 367 (0);

Helicopters – 328 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 14,095 (+31);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,444 (0);

Boats/ships – 29 (0).

Humanitarian+general:

  • During the day on August 24, Russian occupiers launched 261 strikes on the territory of Sumy Oblast. As a result of these attacks, four civilians were killed, and 13 people were injured.
  • During the night of August 25, the enemy launched missile strikes of various types on the frontline oblasts of Ukraine, including Chernihiv Oblast, Sumy Oblast, Kharkiv Oblast, and Donetsk Oblast. The enemy used the “Iskander-K” cruise missile, the “Iskander-M” ballistic missile, and six Kh-59/Kh-69 guided air missiles. Most of the missiles did not reach their targets. Additionally, the occupiers attacked with nine “Shahed” strike drones, eight of which were shot down in Mykolaiv Oblast.
  • At night, Russian occupiers struck a hotel in Kramatorsk, injuring six people, including four journalists. A British citizen who was a media worker was killed. Besides the hotel, a nearby apartment building was also damaged. It was also reported that a Polish journalist was injured.
  • In the early morning of August 25, the occupiers launched missile strikes on Kharkiv and Chuhuiv. Three people were injured in Kharkiv, while in Chuhuiv, four people sustained minor injuries.
  • On the morning of August 25, Russian occupiers shelled the Dnipro district of Kherson. As a result of the attack on a residential building, a woman was killed. Additionally, two men were killed, and a one-year-old boy was injured. Medics diagnosed him with a mine-explosive injury and a shrapnel wound to his left hand. Two other local residents, aged 66 and 77, were injured and hospitalized. Seven private houses were damaged.
  • On Sunday afternoon in Kherson, a man was killed in a drone attack, and four civilians in the city and oblast were injured.
  • As a result of an evening airstrike by Russian forces on the village of Svesa in the Shostka district of Sumy Oblast, an apartment building was damaged, two people were killed, and two others were injured.

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