Russia’s war on Ukraine. 29.08.24

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational Group of Forces (OTG) “Kharkiv” on the Kharkiv direction, there were 2 engagements near the settlements of Lyptsi and Vovchansk.

In the “Khortytsia” Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) operational zone on the Kupyansk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 23 attacks in the areas of Stelmakhivka, Kruhlyakivka, Synkivka, and Kolisnykivka. On the Lyman direction, Ukrainian forces halted 14 enemy assaults near Hrekivka, Druzhelyubivka, Novosadove, Makiivka, Nevske, and Novoyehorivka. On the Siversk direction, five attacks were repelled near Bilohorivka, Spirne, and Verkhniokamyanka. On the Kramatorsk direction, Ukrainian troops thwarted 11 Russian attempts to breach defenses near Hryhorivka, Ivanivske, Bila Hora, Klishchiivka, and Andriivka. The enemy made 21 attempts to advance on the Toretsk direction, attacking near Pivnichne, Druzhba, Toretsk, New York, and most intensely near Nelipivka, delivering seven strikes on Toretsk with 13 guided bombs.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone, on the Pokrovsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 66 attacks, with more than half occurring near Hrodivka and Novohrodivka. On the Kurakhove direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces continued to hold back the enemy near Ukrainka, Karlivka, Heorhiivka, Halytsynivka, and Kostyantynivka, where the occupiers attempted to breach Ukrainian defensive lines 30 times. On the Vremivka direction, the enemy made 6 attempts to seize Ukrainian Defense Forces’ positions near Kostyantynivka, Vodyane, and Vuhledar, attacking from the direction of Mykilske. On the Orikhiv direction, 2 assaults on Ukrainian positions near Robotyne and Novodanylivka were repelled.

General conclusion:

• The advance of “Siversk” OTG in Kursk Oblast has slowed, with forces consolidating on newly reached positions and focusing on holding specific areas they recently captured.
• Russian forces on the Kharkiv direction have very little armored support, primarily attacking on foot, using motorcycles or buggies. Since the start of the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast, the intensity of Russian shelling in this direction has decreased from 10 to 1-2 strikes per day.
• Forward units of the 27th Motorized Rifle Division, the 15th, 30th, and 114th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades have been forced into intense battles near Novohrodivka and the natural barrier along the Zhuravka and Kazennyi Torets rivers, which so far have not been favorable for them.
• The “Tavriya” OSG defense around Karlivka and Halytsynivka, which has been holding back enemy advances toward both Pokrovsk and the southern sectors, is becoming increasingly difficult. Despite Ukrainian forces holding Selidove, the situation around Novohrodivka, Krutyi Yar, and Sukhyi Yar has significantly worsened, affecting not just these areas but the entire zone between Krasnohorivka and Ukrainsk.
• The enemy has encircled “Tavriya” OSG units in the areas of Nevelske, Karlivka, and north of Krasnohorivka, and with successful maneuvers from the flanks of “Tsentr (Center)” and ” Yug (South)” Operational Groupings they could potentially surround these forces.
• The enemy made advances in the Novohrodivka area and south of Krasnyi Yar over the past 4-5 days but has since reduced their pace between Krasnyi Yar and Vozdvizhenka.
• The command of  “Tsentr (Center)” Operational Grouping and the 2nd Combined Arms Army lacks the strength and resources to sustain simultaneous offensives on all chosen directions, leading to a sequential focus on different sectors and reducing the overall pace of their advance.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

• There were 195 combat engagements on various fronts.
• On the Kursk Direction: Russian forces operate on the eastern outskirts of Korenovo, from which Ukrainian units have withdrawn. They repelled attempts by Ukrainian Defense Forces to cross the international border near Zhuravlevka in Belgorod Oblast. The 810th Separate Marines Brigade of the Black Sea Fleet is holding positions in Spalnoe.
• The “Siversk” OTG advanced past Vetreno, Kremyanoe, and Sheptukhovka, reaching the western outskirts of Nechaevo, in the eastern part of Cherkasskoe Porechie, and in the fields south of Spalnoe They attacked near Olgovka, Malaya Loknya, Russkaya Konopelka, and near Borki.
• On the Kharkiv direction, Russian forces continued their offensive in the areas of Lyptsi, Hlyboke, and Vovchansk. The commander of the 18th Motorized Rifle Division of the 11th Army Corps is preparing units of the 11th Tank Regiment for deployment to forward positions near Hlyboke. Assault groups of the 7th Separate Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 11th Army Corps are also being transferred there. The 82nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 69th Motorized Rifle Division of the 6th Army is preparing for assault operations in Vovchansk. The 135th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 58th Army is operating jointly with the 83rd Separate Air Assault Brigade in the Tykhe area.
• “Kharkiv” OTG units counterattacked near Lyptsi and Vovchansk.
• On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces advanced northwest of Pishchane and continued their offensive in the areas of Synkivka, Stelmakhivka, Stepova Novoselivka, Kolisnykivka, Kruhlyakivka, and Druzhelyubivka.
• On the Lyman direction, the enemy attacked near Novosadove, Nevske, Makiivka, and Terny.
• On the Siversk Direction, Ukrainian forces regained control over previously lost positions southwest of Ivano-Dariivka. Russian forces advanced in the areas of Verkhnyokamianske, Vyimka, Ivano-Dariivka, and Spirne.
• On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces advanced west of Andriivka and Kurdyumivka, attacking on the eastern outskirts of Chasiv Yar and near Hryhorivka, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, Andriivka, and Bila Hora.
• On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces advanced on the eastern outskirts of Toretsk along 91st Division Street, continued their offensive near Toretsk, and attacked near Druzhba, Pivnichne, New York, and Nelipivka.
• On the Pokrovsk direction, the enemy’s “Tsentr (Center)” Operational Grouping shifted the direction of their main attack southward from the direction towards Pokrovsk (assault zone of the 2nd Army) to the assault zone of the 90th Tank Division of the 41st Army, toward the towns of Selidove and Karlivka.
• Advanced units of the 90th Tank Division, supported by left-flank units of the 27th Motorized Rifle Division of the 2nd Army, broke through to the E-50 road between Selidove and Karlivka from the north, engaging in battles for Mykhailivka and capturing Memryk.
• The main forces of the 27th Motorized Rifle Division, supported by the 114th Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 51st Army, continued active offensive operations along the railway in the area of Novohrodivka towards Sukhyi Yar and in the area of Marynivka, advancing into the northwestern part of the village.
• On the Kurakhove direction, Russian forces continued their offensive west of Donetsk but did not advance, continuing attacks near Krasnohorivka and Heorhiivka.
• On the Vremivka direction, the 57th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 6th Motorized Rifle Division (3rd Army Corps) advanced to the western outskirts of Kostyantynivka along Shakhtarska Street, occupying the entire town. Russian forces crossed the T05024 road southwest of Vodyane and have now cut off both main ground logistics routes on highways T05024 and T0509 for the Ukrainian tactical group in Vuhledar. The enemy attacked near Kostyantynivka, Vodyane, Vuhledar, and Prechystivka.
• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
  • Black Sea: 1 ship, including 1 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 4 cruise missiles.
  • Mediterranean Sea: 3 ships, including 1 cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 8 cruise missiles.

Possible operation situation developments:

• The enemy’s shift of their main offensive focus to the southern sector of the “Tsentr (Center)” Operational Grouping’s operational zone on the Pokrovsk direction will soon intensify combat operations around Selidove, Ukrainsk, Halytsynivka, Kurakhivka, and Hirnyk.
• On the Pokrovsk direction, the enemy will likely attempt to cut off the Pokrovsk–Kostyantynivka highway and prepare for an assault on the Pokrovsk–Myrnohrad agglomeration. It can be assumed that the enemy will reach the city by mid-September, but they will not be able to capture it. The open terrain, which is unfavorable for an offensive, and potential counterattacks from the Selydove and Kostyantynivka areas will slow their advance.
• Without securing the Selidove area, the enemy cannot sustain their offensive towards Pokrovsk, but they will continue attacking in an attempt to breach the defensive line along the Zhuravka and Kazennyi Torets rivers.
• The enemy will try to break through on the Memryk-Hirnyk direction, push towards the Ukrainsk-Hirnyk line, advance towards the Krasnohorivka-Hirnyk line, and reach the Kurakhivka-Hirnyk line to encircle part of the “Tavriya” OSG forces.
• Successful enemy advances could force “Tavriya” OSG units to withdraw from Karlivka, areas north of Krasnohorivka, and positions near Nevelske.
• By the end of this year, the enemy will not only fail to occupy Donetsk Oblast within its administrative borders but also will be unable to seize the “fortress belt” of Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka-Kramatorsk-Slovyansk. The upcoming battle for Pokrovsk will be the climax of the enemy’s offensive operation in the Southwestern Theater of Operations in 2024.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 29.08.24  

Personnel – almost 612,390 (+1200); 

Tanks 8,571 (+3);

Armored combat vehicles – 16,699 (+18); 

Artillery systems – 17,549 (+27);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,174 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 939 (+1);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 23,706 (+52);

Aircraft – 368 (+1);

Helicopters – 328 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 14,369 (+21);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,556 (+3);

Boats/ships – 29 (0).

Humanitarian+general:

• During the night of Thursday, Ukrainian air defense destroyed 60 out of 74 kamikaze drones and two out of five guided missiles that Russia used against Ukraine.
• On the night of Thursday, Kyiv was attacked by drones. Debris fell in residential areas in the Dniprovskyi, Holosiivskyi, and Desnianskyi districts of the city, damaging a building and setting a gazebo on fire.
• A postal center of “Ukrposhta” in Nikopol was attacked by a Russian drone, damaging the building and five trucks.
• One person was killed, and five others were injured as a result of Russian shelling in the city of Nikopol, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, on the morning of August 29.
• On August 28, Russian occupiers shelled 15 communities in Kherson Oblast, including the city of Kherson. Russian forces hit a gas station, residential areas, including an apartment building and 10 private houses. They also damaged a gas pipeline and private cars, injuring five people.
• On August 29, Russian forces shelled the cities of Ukrainsk and Kostyantynivka in Donetsk Oblast with artillery, injuring six civilians. The shelling damaged apartment buildings, private houses, cars, power lines, as well as gas and water supply systems.
• According to a survey conducted by the Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation and the Razumkov Center’s sociological service from August 8 to 15, 2024, 59.5% of Ukrainian citizens believe that regardless of the conditions under which the current war with Russia ends, Russia will attack Ukraine again in the future.
• The survey also revealed that 76% of Ukrainians believe all Russians are responsible for the aggression against Ukraine, while 20% disagree with this view, and only 4% have no clear position on the matter. Additionally, 64.5% of respondents agree that the population of Russia is encouraging its leadership to continue the war against Ukraine.
• At this stage of the war, a majority of Ukrainians, or 64% of those surveyed, are convinced that Russia’s aggression was inevitable after Ukraine regained independence, while only 18% believe it could have been avoided.
• Regarding China’s role as a mediator in potential negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, 62% of Ukrainians do not trust China, while only 22% do.
• When asked about the prospect of enduring a prolonged war with Russia, 54% of Ukrainians believe that Ukraine will be able to withstand it, while 28% disagree, and 18% are undecided.
• Furthermore, 62% of Ukrainians believe that security guarantees from other countries could protect Ukraine from future Russian aggression.
• Only 9% of Ukrainians are willing to recognize the occupied territories as part of Russia in exchange for ending the war (compared to less than 5% in August 2023), while 81% consider this unacceptable (compared to 90% in August 2023), regardless of the respondents’ age. This stance is similarly shared by the majority in all regions of Ukraine: 84% in the West and Center, 76% in the South, and 72% in the East.
• In Kyiv and 15 other regions, energy companies have increased electricity consumption restrictions—from 7:00 AM to 10:00 PM, three disconnection phases will be in effect simultaneously.

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