Russia’s war on Ukraine. 30.08.24

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational Group of Forces (OTG) “Kharkiv” on the Kharkiv direction, the enemy continued offensive (assault) actions, with a total of 8 combat engagements. The battles took place particularly in the areas of Lyptsi and Vovchansk.

In the “Khortytsia” Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) operational zone on the Kupyansk direction, there were 25 combat engagements in one day. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled enemy attacks in the areas of Synkivka, Myasozharivka, Stepova Novoselivka, Kolisnykivka, and Lozova.  On the Lyman direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 23 enemy attacks in the areas of Tverdokhlibove, Cherneshchyna, Druzhelyubivka, Nevske, Torske, and in the Serebriansk Forest. On the Siversk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 9 attacks in the areas of Verkhnyokamianske and Vyimka. On the Kramatorsk direction, stopped 12 enemy attempts to breach the defense in the areas of Klishchiivka, Andriivka, and Chasiv Yar. The enemy made 21 attempts to break into the defense on the Toretsk direction in the areas of Toretsk, Zalizne, Nelipivka, and Sukha Balka.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone, on the Pokrovsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 58 attacks in the areas of Vozdvyzhenka, Zelene Pole, Myrolyubivka, Hrodivka, Novohrodivka, Karlivka, Marynivka, and Mykhailivka, where the enemy tried to dislodge Ukrainian Defense Forces units from their positions. On the Kurakhove direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces continued to hold back the occupiers in the areas of Krasnohorivka, Kostyantynivka, and Heorhiivka, where the enemy made 38 attempts to break through defensive positions.  On the Vremivka direction, the enemy made 17 attempts to breach the defense in the direction of Vuhledar, Kostyantynivka, and Vodyane. On the Orikhiv direction, there were 3 combat engagements in the areas of Mala Tokmachka and Robotyne.

In the operational zone of “Odesa” OSG, Ukrainian units engaged in combat with the invaders once on the Prydniprovskiy direction.

General conclusion:

• The pace of the enemy’s “Sever (North)” Operational Grouping’s offensive near Starytsya is slowing, with the enemy beginning to transition to defensive operations.
• Intense fighting on the Pokrovsk direction is ongoing on the eastern outskirts of Hrodivka, southwest of Hrodivka in the area of Krasnyi Yar, within Novohrodivka, and east of Selydove near Mykhailivka.
• The enemy’s “Tsentr (Center)” Operational Grouping is implementing two tactical plans within the ongoing offensive operation to capture Pokrovsk: advancing along the Novohrodivka-Hrodivka line east of Pokrovsk to capture Myrnohrad and reach the outskirts of Pokrovsk and advancing along the Solona River towards Selydove.
• The enemy’s push to the Ukrainsk-Hirnyk line southeast of Pokrovsk aims to widen the “Tsentr (Center)” Operational Grouping’s salient on the Pokrovsk direction and eliminate vulnerabilities for “Tavriya” OSG forces to conduct counterattacks.
• The Russian military command views both tactical scenarios as desirable prerequisites to launch battles to capture Pokrovsk.
• Russian forces are trying to maintain the momentum of their advance along the Novohrodivka-Hrodivka line for the rapid capture of Myrnohrad and to reach the outskirts of Pokrovsk.
• The Russian advance from Novohrodivka to the outskirts of Myrnohrad aims to bypass the Ukrainian defense sector northwest and west of Hrodivka.
• The Russian offensive in Selydove and towards Ukrainsk and Hirnyk is aimed at eliminating the relatively large “Tavriya” OSG bridgehead on the southern flank of the broader Russian salient on the Pokrovsk direction, which could slow the enemy’s advance in this area. The “Tavriya” OSG positions east of the Selydove-Ukrainsk-Hirnyk line allow them to threaten the Russian rear on the Pokrovsk direction, which the “Tsentr (Center)” Operational Grouping’s command is aware of, and they aim to expand and stabilize their southern flank in this area.
• The Russian wedge has a width of approximately 21 km at the base from the Selydove-Ukrainsk-Hirnyk line to the Ukrainian positions along the N20 highway between Avdiivka and Kostyantynivka. Russian positions along the E50 highway from Donetsk to Pokrovsk are approximately 13 km from Avdiivka, while the current Russian advance line along the Novohrodivka-Hrodivka line is 30 kilometers from it.
• Ukrainian counterattacks on the flanks from the base of the wedge towards Avdiivka could threaten to encircle the Russian grouping, and the Russian military command seeks to preempt this possibility by eliminating the Ukrainian salient on the southern flank of the Pokrovsk direction.
• The command of the enemy’s “Tsentr (Center)” Operational Grouping hopes that the advance towards Ukrainsk and Hirnyk will mutually support the ongoing offensive west of the city of Donetsk and that the offensive pressure will force “Tavriya” OSG units from their positions in the open rural areas east of Ukrainsk and Hirnyk.
• The area north of Krasnohorivka is mainly composed of open fields with limited opportunities for concealment, and advancing through this terrain will require the enemy to increase the number of assault actions.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

• There were 215 combat engagements on various fronts.
• On the Kursk Direction: The “Siversk” OTG forces have advanced slightly north of Sudzha, reaching Nizhnyaya Parovaya and pushing into the northwestern part of the village. They continue to assault Korenevo, attempting to break through towards Rylsk.
• Russian forces have recaptured Ulanok and the eastern part of Korenevo, and they continued to advance near Korenevo, Komarovka, Kremyanoe, Liubimovka, Leonidovka, Malaya Loknya, Russkoe Porechie, Martynovka, and within the vicinity of Borki.
• On the Kharkiv direction, battles continued near Lyptsi, Hlyboke, and Vovchansk.
• On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces advanced northeast of Kupyansk and are trying to capture Synkivka and Stelmakhivka, with further advancements in the areas of Pishchane and Tabaiivka.
• Fighting continued near Synkivka, Stelmakhivka, Stepova Novoselivka, Kolisnykivka, Kruhlyakivka, Lozova, Myasozharivka, Tverdokhlibove, towards Cherneshchyna, and Druzhelyubivka.
• On the Lyman direction, the enemy attacked near Novosadove, Novoyehorivka, Hrekivka, Nevske, Makiivka, Torske, and in the Serebryanske area.
• On the Siversk Direction, Russian forces continued offensive actions near Bilohorivka, Verkhnyokamianske, Vyimka, and Spirne, but the frontline did not change.
• On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces continued offensive actions near Chasiv Yar, Hryhorivka, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, Andriivka, and Bila Hora.
• On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces advanced along Chapaeva Street in the northwestern part of Druzhba, up to 500 meters in the eastern part of Toretsk. They continued their advance in the areas of Toretsk, Pivnichne, Druzhba, New York, Nelipivka, and Sukha Balka.
• On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces advanced east and southeast of Pokrovsk, reaching the southeastern outskirts of Myrnohrad, where assault and reconnaissance groups engaged in small arms battles with the Ukrainian Defense Forces garrison, continuing their offensive. The enemy advanced in the eastern part of Selydove, reaching the forest strip northwest of Svyrydonivka, northwards in the fields east of Hrodivka, to the Novohrodivska mine No. 1/3 in northwestern Novohrodivka, and westwards to the “Russia” mine waste heap north of Mykhailivka. They continued their advance in the areas of Vozdvyzhenka, Zelene Pole, Myrolyubivka, Hrodivka, Novohrodivka, Marynivka, Mykhailivka, Selydove, and Karlivka. They are fighting on the northeastern outskirts of Ukrainsk, captured Memryk, and entered Halytsynivka.
• Russian forces have encircled Ukrainian positions southeast of Pokrovsk along the Karlivka Reservoir, forcing Ukrainian forces to retreat from some positions in this area. They hope to achieve a similar effect by encircling Ukrainian positions between Myrnohrad and Hrodivka, although it is unlikely they can maintain a high pace of advance through Myrnohrad.
• On the Kurakhove direction, Russian forces continued their advance near Heorhiivka and Krasnohorivka but were unsuccessful.
• On the Vremivka direction, Russian forces advanced in the fields south of Pobeda, north across the T0509 highway, west of Pavlivka, and northeast of Vuhledar. They attacked near Kostyantynivka, Vodyane, and Vuhledar.
• On the Orikhiv direction, units of the 70th and 71st Motorized Rifle Regiments of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 58th Combined Arms Army advanced north and east of Robotyne, attacking near Novodanylivka and Mala Tokmachka.
• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
  • Black Sea: 1 ship, including 1 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 4 cruise missiles.
  • Mediterranean Sea: 3 ships, including 1 cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 8 cruise missiles.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

• The “Cascade” operational-combat tactical formation of the Internal Troops of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the so-called DPR is engaged in combat near Korenovo in Kursk Oblast. Previously, there were reports of its disbandment due to the formation of the 116th Special Purpose Brigade of the Russian National Guard.
• The 7th Separate Motorized Rifle Regiment (11th Army Corps) operates near Lukyantsi, and the 136th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (58th Army) assists the 83rd Separate Air Assault Brigade near Tykhe.
• The “Sever-V” Volunteer Reconnaissance-Assault Brigade operates near Hryhorivka.
• The 5th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (51st Army) and the 238th Artillery Brigade (8th Army) are active near Krasnohorivka.

Escalation indicators:

• A steady increase in the number of combat engagements along the entire front line.

Possible operation situation developments:

• The enemy’s shift of their main offensive focus to the southern sector of the “Tsentr (Center)” Operational Grouping’s operational zone on the Pokrovsk direction will soon intensify combat operations around Selidove, Ukrainsk, Halytsynivka, Kurakhivka, and Hirnyk.
• The enemy’s “Tsentr (Center)” Operational Grouping may attempt to advance through “Tavriya” OSG positions along the Novohrodivka-Hrodivka line, despite higher levels of casualties, in order to maintain the speed of their advance and try to capture Myrnohrad more quickly.
• On the Pokrovsk direction, the enemy will likely attempt to cut off the Pokrovsk–Kostyantynivka highway and prepare for an assault on the Pokrovsk–Myrnohrad agglomeration. It can be assumed that the enemy will reach the city by mid-September, but they will not be able to capture it. The open terrain, which is unfavorable for an offensive, and potential counterattacks from the Selydove and Kostyantynivka areas will slow their advance.
• Without securing the Selidove area, the enemy cannot sustain their offensive towards Pokrovsk, but they will continue attacking in an attempt to breach the defensive line along the Zhuravka and Kazennyi Torets rivers.
• The command of the enemy’s “Tsentr (Center)” Operational Grouping must choose between two options for continuing the offensive: either to break through Pokrovsk and the smaller villages east and southeast of Pokrovsk, or to encircle the city. The decision on how to capture Pokrovsk will depend on where Ukrainian Defense Forces deploy their reserves.
• Successful enemy advances will force “Tavriya” OSG units to withdraw from Karlivka, areas north of Krasnohorivka, and positions near Nevelske.
• By the end of this year, the enemy will not only fail to occupy Donetsk Oblast within its administrative borders but also will be unable to seize the “fortress belt” of Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka-Kramatorsk-Slovyansk. The upcoming battle for Pokrovsk will be the climax of the enemy’s offensive operation in the Southwestern Theater of Operations in 2024.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 30.08.24  

Personnel – almost 613,590 (+1200); 

Tanks 8,574 (+3);

Armored combat vehicles – 16,722 (+23); 

Artillery systems – 17,572 (+23);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,175 (+1);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 939 (+1);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 23,763 (+5);

Aircraft – 368 (0);

Helicopters – 328 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 14,453 (+84);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,556 (0);

Boats/ships – 29 (0).

Humanitarian+general:

• During the night of August 30th, Russian occupiers launched 18 “Shahed” drones and an “Iskander-M” ballistic missile at Ukraine. Ukrainian air defense shot down 12 of the drones.
• In the same night, the enemy carried out an airstrike on civilian infrastructure in the city of Sumy, causing a large-scale fire. Thirteen people were injured, one of whom died in the hospital, and another person was found dead under the rubble.
• The enemy also struck an industrial facility in Poltava Oblast using UAVs, but no casualties were reported.
• Russian occupiers damaged an industrial enterprise in the Marhanets community in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Four “Shahed” drones were shot down over the region during the night.
• On the morning of August 30th, Russian forces shelled a fire and rescue station in the city of Nikopol in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast three times. Although there was damage, there were no injuries.
• On August 30th, Russian occupying forces attacked Kharkiv with modified guided aerial bombs UMPB D-30. As a result of the attack, six people, including a 14 year old girl, were killed, and 59 others, including 9 children, were injured. The attackers hit 5 locations, including a children’s playground and a12-story residential complex.
• Russian forces launched an artillery strike with a “Uragan” on the city of Kurakhove in Donetsk Oblast. One person was killed, and six others were injured, with more people possibly trapped under the rubble.
• In Chernihiv Oblast, six houses in the border town of Semenivka were set on fire due to a drone attack by the Russian army.
• Russian forces carried out a targeted strike on a permanent base of an emergency medical brigade in Donetsk Oblast. As a result of the direct hit, the building was completely destroyed, and an ambulance was damaged. Luckily, medical personnel were not injured.
• Several families, including 14 children, were successfully returned to Ukraine from the temporarily occupied territories of the Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson Oblasts.
• As of the morning of August 30th, emergency power outages were in effect in 16 regions of Ukraine. After these outages are lifted, energy workers plan to increase the number of groups that are simultaneously disconnected.

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