Центр оборонних стратегій

Russia’s war on Ukraine. 05.09.24

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational Group of Forces (OTG) “Kharkiv” on the Kharkiv direction, the enemy continued offensive and assault actions. There were 2 combat engagements in the Vovchansk area, with the occupiers actively using UAVs for strikes.

In the “Khortytsia” Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) operational zone on the Kupyansk direction, the number of attacks increased to 17. Ukrainain Defense Forces repelled all enemy assault actions near Synkivka, Hlushkivka, Lozova, Berestove, and Myasozharivka. On the Lyman direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces stopped 27 enemy attacks near Druzhelyubivka, Hrekivka, Makiivka, Novosadove, Nevske, and Torske. On the Siversk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled four enemy assaults as the enemy attempted to advance near Verkhnyokamianske and Ivano-Dariivka. On the Kramatorsk direction, halted 6 enemy attempts to break through Ukrainian defense, with the main efforts of the occupiers, supported by aviation, concentrated in the areas of Chasiv Yar and Kalynivka. The enemy continued to actively operate on the Toretsk direction, conducting 15 attacks on Ukrainian Defense Forces’ positions near Nelipivka, Toretsk, and New York.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zoneon the Pokrovsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 52 attacks in the areas of Vozdvyzhenka, Zelene Pooe, Novohrodivka, Hrodivka, Selydove, Mykolaivka, and Myrolyubivka, where the enemy, supported by aviation, attempted to dislodge the Defense Forces from their positions. On the Kurakhove direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces stopped enemy attacks near Heorhiivka, Kostyantynivka, and Krasnohorivka, where the enemy tried to break through Ukrainian defense 46 times. On the Vremivka direction, the enemy conducted four assaults on Defense Forces’ positions near Kostyantynivka and Vodyane. On the Orikhiv direction, there were 2 combat engagements near Robotyne and Novoandriivka.

In the operational zone of “Odesa” OSG on the Prydniprovskiy direction, the occupiers continued their attempts to dislodge Ukrainian Defense Forces from their positions. However, five Russian attacks were unsuccessful.

General conclusion:

  • On the Kharkiv direction, the Russian military command has brought troops near Hlyboke to combat readiness, with units focusing on countering Ukrainian reconnaissance UAVs.
  • Russian forces have intensified artillery strikes on Vuhledar.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

  • There were 138 combat engagements on various fronts.
  • On the Kursk Direction: “Siversk” OTG made slight advances in the fields southeast of Durovka and along the 38K-030 road southeast of Korenevo.
  • Russian forces retreated from positions in Mala Loknya. Fighting continued near Cherkasskoe Porechie and Martynovka.
  • On the Kharkiv direction, battles continued in Vovchansk, near Lyptsi, and Hlyboke.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces continued attacks near Synkivka, Hlushkivka, Stelmakhivka, Pishchane, Berestove, Lozova, near Myasozharivka, Druzhelyubivka, Novosadove, Nevske, Makiivka, and Hrekivka.
  • On the Lyman direction, Russian forces attacked near Torske.
  • On the Siversk Direction, Russian forces continued attacks near Bilohorivka, Verkhnyokamianske, Ivano-Dariivka, Spirne, Pereyizne, and Rozdolivka.
  • On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces continued attacks near Chasiv Yar, Klishchiivka, Andriivka, and Kurdyumivka.
  • On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces advanced on the eastern outskirts of Toretsk, fully captured Druzhba, and continued attacks near New York, Nelipivka, and Shcherbynivka.
  • On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces advanced south of Novohrodivka and slightly to the west of Mykolaivka, continuing offensive actions in the areas of Vozdvyzhenka, Zelene Pole, Myrolyubivka, Hrodivka, Krutyi Yar, Novotoretske, Novohrodivka, Selydove, Mykhailivka, Zhelanne Pershe, Ukrainsk, and Halytsynivka.
  • On the Kurakhove direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces regained lost positions in the eastern part of Maksymilianivka.
  • Russian forces continued attacks in the area of Krasnohorivka and Heorhiivka.
  • On the Vremivka direction, Russian forces advanced north of Paraskoviivka along the T0524 road, moved along the T0509 Velyka Novosilka-Pavlivka highway southeast of Prechystivka, attempted to capture Prechystivka and advanced into fields west of the village, advanced near the Mylnyi Pond south of Vodyane, and continued to advance near Kostyantynivka, Vodyane, and Vuhledar, attempting to push Ukrainian forces from positions north of Pryiutne.
  • On the Orikhiv direction, fighting continued near Robotyne, Novoandriivka, and Mala Tokmachka.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
    • Black Sea: 1 ship, including 1 cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 4 cruise missiles.
    • Mediterranean Sea: 1 ship, including 0 cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 0 cruise missiles.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

  • The 4th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 3rd Army Corps and the “Akhmat” unit continue operations south of Chasiv Yar.
  • The main forces of the 9th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 51st Army Corps are attempting to capture New York and are engaged in combat near Nelipivka.
  • The “Somali” separate assault battalion and part of the 9th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 51st Army Corps are active near Karlivka.
  • The 40th Separate Marines Brigade of the Pacific Fleet is operating near Prechystivka.
  • The 70th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 58th Army, along with the 22nd Separate SOF Brigade, are engaged in combat on the Orikhiv direction.
  • The 28th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 70th Motorized Rifle Division of the 18th Army is active on the Kherson direction.

Possible operation situation developments:

  • The enemy’s command on the theater of operations must conduct strategic regrouping between operational zones and reinforce the “Tsentr (Center)”Operational Grouping on the Toretsk direction with at least a corps. For this purpose, the 3rd Army Corps may be redeployed to this direction from the Kramatorsk direction, or the main forces of the 51st Army may be concentrated.
  • Without the involvement of additional forces and resources, the enemy’s 41st Army Command will soon have to either concentrate on narrower directions and sectors or abandon simultaneous offensive actions across the entire operational zone and focus on high-cost battles in Toretsk itself or conclude combat operations in the area of New York and Nelipivka.
  • The enemy’s shift of their main offensive focus to the southern sector of the “Tsentr (Center)” Operational Grouping’s operational zone on the Pokrovsk direction will soon intensify combat operations around Selidove, Ukrainsk, Halytsynivka, Kurakhivka, and Hirnyk. Without securing the Selidove area, the enemy cannot sustain their offensive towards Pokrovsk, but they will continue attacking in an attempt to breach the defensive line along the Zhuravka and Kazennyi Torets rivers.
  • The enemy’s “Tsentr (Center)” Operational Grouping may attempt to advance through “Tavriya” OSG positions along the Novohrodivka-Hrodivka line, despite higher levels of casualties, in order to maintain the speed of their advance and try to capture Myrnohrad more quickly.
  • By the end of this year, the enemy will not only fail to occupy Donetsk Oblast within its administrative borders but also will be unable to seize the “fortress belt” of Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka-Kramatorsk-Slovyansk. The upcoming battle for Pokrovsk will be the climax of the enemy’s offensive operation in the Southwestern Theater of Operations in 2024.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 05.09.24  

Personnel – almost 621,550 (+1200); 

Tanks 8,624 (+6);

Armored combat vehicles – 16,869 (+21); 

Artillery systems – 17,725 (+31);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,177 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 940 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 24,044 (+37);

Aircraft – 368 (0);

Helicopters – 328 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 14,658 (+42);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,587 (+7);

Boats/ships – 29 (0).

Humanitarian+general:

  • During the night of September 5, the occupiers attacked Ukraine with one “Iskander-M” ballistic missile and 78 “Shahed” strike drones. As a result of air defense combat, 60 strike drones were shot down, 15 were lost, 2 flew into Russian territory, and one into Belarus.
  • Russian invaders shelled the Nikopol district of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast on the evening of September 4 and the night of September 5, damaging a poultry farm and an administrative building. The shelling continued in the morning, and the consequences of the strikes are still being clarified, but there were no casualties or injuries.
  • During the night of September 4-5, the air raid alarm in Kyiv lasted more than nine hours. “Shahed” drones entered individually, but none reached their targets. The prolonged alarm caused disruptions in the operation of the metro.
  • This morning, the occupiers dropped two guided bombs on Kostyantynivka in Donetsk Oblast and shelled the city with artillery. As a result, one person was killed, and two were injured.
  • In the morning, the enemy attacked the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast with a kamikaze drone. As a result, infrastructure was damaged, and a fire broke out. Firefighters were extinguishing the fire when the Russians launched a second strike, injuring a 45-year-old firefighter. A service vehicle was destroyed by the fire.
  • Around 2 p.m., the Russians shelled a village in the Semenivska community, targeting the settlement with artillery. Houses were burning, and two residents were injured.
  • President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that in the Kursk Oblast, the Ukrainian Armed Forces had captured over 600 Russian servicemen.
  • The death toll from the Russian strike on an educational institution in Poltava on September 3 has risen to 55, 328 people were injured. The search and rescue operation has been completed. 
  • Authorities decided to cancel evacuation trains from the city of Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast due to the worsening security situation. Currently, there are still 26,000 civilians in the city, including over a thousand children. Starting from September 5, the evacuation trains will depart from Pavlohrad in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
  • Russian forces constantly use poisonous substances, which they drop from copters and drones. In August, they dropped approximately 200 munitions with poisonous substances along the entire front line in the “Tavriya” OSG operational responsibility zone. Slightly more of this occurs in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. On September 4, there were 13 drops of poisonous substances.

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