Russia’s war on Ukraine. 08.09.24
- 09.09.2024
- Опубліковано: CDS
- Категорія: DailyBrief
In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational Group of Forces (OTG) “Kharkiv” on the Kharkiv direction, the enemy, supported by aviation, launched 1 assault on the Ukrainian Defense Forces’ positions near Vovchansk.
In the “Khortytsia” Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) operational zone on the Kupyansk direction, the enemy attacked Ukrainian Defense Forces’ positions 17 times. Ukrainian units repelled 7 assaults near Synkivka, Lozova, Stelmakhivka, Petropavlivka, Hlushkivka, and Andriivka. On the Lyman direction, Russian forces attacked Ukrainian Defense Forces 25 times in the areas of Cherneshchyna, Nevske, Lozova, Torske, Makiivka, and Dibrova. Enemy activity on the Siversk direction manifested in 7 assaults as the occupiers attempted to dislodge Ukrainian Defense Forces from positions near Spirne, Verkhnyokamianske, and Vyimka. On the Kramatorsk direction, Ukrainian troops repelled 6 Russian attempts to advance near Chasiv Yar, Andriivka, and Klishchiivka. On the Toretsk direction, the occupiers, with air support, launched 8 attacks on Ukrainian Defense Forces’ positions near Toretsk, Nelipivka, and Sukha Balka.
In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone, on the Pokrovsk direction, the aggressor attacked Ukrainian units 44 times, with the highest activity near Novohrodivka, Mykhailivka, and Hrodivka. The situation is also tense on the Kurakhove direction where defenders repelled 42 enemy assaults. The invaders attempted to advance near Kostyantynivka, Krasnohorivka, Halytsynivka, and Heorhiivka. On the Vremivka direction, the aggressor launched 6 assaults on the front lines in the direction of Vodyane and Vuhledar.
In the operational zone of “Odesa” OSG on the Prydniprovskiy direction, 11 enemy assault actions were unsuccessful.
General conclusion:
- The command of the “Joint Grouping of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation on the Southwestern Theater of Operations” continues its efforts to stabilize the situation on the Kursk operational direction and create a continuous front there.
- Russian forces attempt to achieve the objectives of their offensive operation in the north of Kharkiv Oblast, specifically the creation of a “buffer zone” along the state border, but the “Kharkiv” OTG actions in this area and the operational pressure created by the “Siversk” OTG in Kursk Oblast disrupt these plans.
- The command of the enemy’s “Sever (North)” Operational Grouping aims to advance closer to Kharkiv on the Hlyboke-Lyptsi direction and to advance into the rear of the Ukrainian grouping on the Kupyansk direction from Vovchansk. The enemy is advancing near Vovchansk, Starytsya, Buhruvatka, Ohirtseve, and Tykhe, but is increasingly transitioning to defensive positions in certain areas.
- On the Kharkiv direction, the enemy’s use of strike aviation has significantly decreased in intensity.
- On the Pokrovsk direction, the enemy is completing its plan for a flanking envelopment and elimination of the Ukrainian Defense Forces’ bridgehead east of the Vovcha River in the Nevelske area with the combined forces of the neighboring flanks of the “Tsentr (Center)” and “Yug (South)” Operational Groupings. The “Tavriya” OSG command is delaying the decision to withdraw troops to the Hirnyk-Kurakhivka line.
- Despite claims from the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces about halting enemy advances on the Pokrovsk direction, no real pause is observed: the enemy continues offensive operations around Novohrodivka, Krasnyi Yar, Hrodivka, and Novotoretske. The reduced pace of advance in these areas is due to the enemy shifting its main efforts south toward Selidove, focusing on neutralizing the Ukrainian Defense Forces’ bridgehead along the Vovcha River near Nevelske.
- On the Kurakhove direction, combat operations are conducted by the troops of the 68th Army Corps.
- The primary task of the Russian forces in the Vuhledar area is to capture and hold the area around the “Pivdennodonbaska” mine, but Ukrainian positions on the outskirts of Vuhledar complicate this effort.
Change in the line of contact (LoC):
- There were 168 combat engagements on various fronts.
- On the Kursk Direction: Russian forces have regained positions southeast of Koreniv and in the northern part of Cherkasskoe Porechie.
- “Siversk” OTG advanced toward enemy positions south of Khitrovka and continued attacking near Snagost, Vishniovka, Komarovka, Korenevo, Olgovka, Matveevka, Mariivka, Pogrebki, Martynovka, and Borki.
- Ukrainian Defense Forces continue shelling enemy concentration areas and logistical routes in their tactical rear, carrying out a drone strike on an ammunition depot near Soldatskoye in Voronezh Oblast, destroying a stockpile of North Korean KN-23 ballistic missiles.
- On the Kharkiv direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces attacked toward Lyptsi and counterattacked in the Hlyboke area.
- Russian troops continued assaults near Lyptsi and Vovchansk, attacking in the Hlyboke-Lyptsi direction with small assault groups of 2-3 men simultaneously striking Ukrainian positions from multiple directions.
- On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces advanced on the southern outskirts of Synkivka, near Pishchane towards Kolisnyky, and attacked southwest of Ploshchanka, near Stelmakhivka, Hlushkivka, Berestove, towards Lozova, near Andriivka, Cherneshchyna, Novoheorhiivka, and Druzhelyubivka.
- On the Lyman direction, Russian forces attacked near Nevske, Makiivka, Torske, Terny, and Dibrova.
- On the Siversk Direction, Russian forces continued their offensive near Verkhnyokamianske, Spirne, and Vyimka.
- On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces pressed their advance near Chasiv Yar, moved into the western part of Kalynivka, west of Klishchiivka, and continued offensive actions near Hryhorivka and close to Andriivka.
- On the Toretsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked on the northwestern outskirts of New York, holding positions within the town.
- Russian forces continued their assault near Toretsk, Nelipivka, and towards Sukha Balka.
- On the Pokrovsk direction, the 228th Motorized Rifle Regiment and 239th Tank Regiment of the 90th Tank Division, along with the 114th and parts of the 5th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 51st Combined Arms Army, advanced northward into Ukrainsk on the eastern and southeastern outskirts, took control of the northern part of Halytsynivka, and advanced to the northeastern outskirts of Hirnyk.
- Russian forces also advanced into the central part of Hrodivka, into the northwestern and western parts of Mykhailivka, and south of the village, as well as south of Novohrodivka. They attempted to capture Lisivka and attacked towards the tactical heights between Tsukuryno and Hirnyk to avoid a frontal assault on Ukrainian positions in Ukrainsk. The enemy continues advancing near Vozdvyzhenka, Zelene Pole, Myrolyubivka, towards Novotroitske, and near Selidove, Mykhailivka, and Zhelanne Pershe. They launched a missile strike on a bridge on the eastern outskirts of Selidove, aiming to complicate the logistical support for Ukrainian Defense Forces in this area.
- On the Kurakhove direction, the 5th, 110th, and one battalion from the 114th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 51st Combined Arms Army crossed the Lozova River north of Krasnohorivka from the south and made significant progress along its southern bank in the Krasnohorivka-Oleksandropil direction.
- Russian forces advanced within the northern part of Krasnohorivka and further north of the town, continuing offensive actions near Maksymilianivka and Heorhiivka.
- On the Vremivka direction, Russian forces attacked near Kostyantynivka, Vodyane, Vuhledar, and Staromayorske.
- On the Orikhiv direction, Russian forces attacked near Mala Tokmachka and advanced near Robotyne and Novopokrovka.
- On the Prydniprovskiy direction, Russian forces advanced to an island south of Berehove.
- In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
- Black Sea: 1 ship, including 1 cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 4 cruise missiles.
- Mediterranean Sea: 1 ship, including 0 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 0 cruise missiles.
Changes in the enemy disposition:
- The 200th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 14th Army Corps is engaged in combat near Chasiv Yar.
- The 238th Artillery Brigade of the 8th Combined Arms Army and the 944th Self-Propelled Artillery Regiment of the 20th Motorized Rifle Division conduct operations near Antonivka.
- The 50th Self-Propelled Artillery Regiment of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 58th Combined Arms Army and UAV division units are striking Ukrainian positions north of Robotyne.
- On the Kherson direction, the 337th Airborne Regiment of the 104th Airborne Division is active.
- Additional forces and equipment are being redeployed to the operational zone of the “Sever (North)” Operational Grouping: the airborne regiment and reconnaissance battalion of the 106th Airborne Division are moving from the Siversk and Kramatorsk directions, while a self-propelled howitzer artillery battalion from the 20th Motor Rifle Division is relocating from the Kurakhove direction. The formation and deployment of reserve components are accelerating. For example, the 71st Motorized Rifle Division is being formed based on the 14th Army Corps, although there are some issues with personnel, weapons and military equipment. The formation of the 127th Motorized Rifle Regiment will soon be completed, but there is a shortage of up to 200 pieces of equipment.
- The command of the 41st Combined Arms Army is finalizing the restoration of combat readiness for the 1437th Motorized Rifle Regiment, which was almost completely destroyed in the summer battles on the Toretsk direction.
- The 810th Separate Marines Brigade of the Black Sea Fleet has around 10,000 to 11,000 personnel, but it is operating on the Kursk direction with three battalions (the 382nd Separate Marines Battalion, the Air Assault Battalion, and the Marines Battalion), while the other units are either non-combat-ready or engaged in other directions.
Escalation indicators:
- The transfer of a batch of tactical missiles from Iran to Russia with a range of up to 120 km.
Possible operation situation developments:
- The enemy’s command on the theater of operations must conduct strategic regrouping between operational zones and reinforce the “Tsentr (Center)”Operational Grouping on the Toretsk direction with at least a corps. For this purpose, the 3rd Army Corps may be redeployed to this direction from the Kramatorsk direction, or the main forces of the 51st Army may be concentrated.
- Without the involvement of additional forces and resources, the enemy’s 41st Army Command will soon have to either concentrate on narrower directions and sectors or abandon simultaneous offensive actions across the entire operational zone and focus on high-cost battles in Toretsk itself or conclude combat operations in the area of New York and Nelipivka.
- The enemy’s shift of their main offensive focus to the southern sector of the “Tsentr (Center)” Operational Grouping’s operational zone on the Pokrovsk direction will soon intensify combat operations around Selidove, Ukrainsk, Halytsynivka, Kurakhivka, and Hirnyk. Without securing the Selidove area, the enemy cannot sustain their offensive towards Pokrovsk, but they will continue attacking in an attempt to breach the defensive line along the Zhuravka and Kazennyi Torets rivers.
- The enemy’s “Tsentr (Center)” Operational Grouping may attempt to advance through “Tavriya” OSG positions along the Novohrodivka-Hrodivka line, despite higher levels of casualties, in order to maintain the speed of their advance and try to capture Myrnohrad more quickly.
- Delaying the decision to withdraw the “Tavriya” OSG forces from the bridgehead on the Vovcha River in the Nevelske area on the Pokrovsk direction to the Hirnyk – Kurakhivka line will lead to their encirclement.
- “Tavriya” OSG will not be able to hold the Zhelanne Pershe – Zhelanne Druhe line, as the enemy is already on the western bank of the Vovcha River and is actively advancing along it in a southern direction (Danylivka – Hirnyk). The situation could be salvaged if the “Tavriya” OSG forces reliably hold the Hirnyk – Kurakhivka line, though this remains uncertain.
- By the end of this year, the enemy will not only fail to occupy Donetsk Oblast within its administrative borders but also will be unable to seize the “fortress belt” of Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka-Kramatorsk-Slovyansk. The upcoming battle for Pokrovsk will be the climax of the enemy’s offensive operation in the Southwestern Theater of Operations in 2024.
Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 08.09.24
Personnel – almost 625,260 (+1270);
Tanks 8,636 (+4);
Armored combat vehicles – 16,897 (+19);
Artillery systems – 17,804 (+30);
Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,180 (+2);
Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 942 (0);
Vehicles and fuel tanks – 24,218 (+47);
Aircraft – 368 (0);
Helicopters – 328 (0);
UAV operational and tactical level – 14,864 (+80);
Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,588 (0);
Boats/ships – 29 (0).
Humanitarian+general:
- During the night of September 8, the occupiers launched strikes using four guided Kh-59 air missiles and 23 Shahed-type attack drones. Air defense forces shot down one guided air missile and 15 attack drones.
- Between September 7 and 8, the Russian army struck energy infrastructure in six Ukrainian Oblasts: Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Odesa, Sumy, and Kharkiv.
- The Russian army hit a hotel in the city of Mykolaivka in the Donetsk Oblast at around 21:50 on September 7. Two volunteers from the “ZooKontrol” NGO, who had come to Mykolaivka to carry out sterilization of stray animals, were killed.
- During the night of September 8, Russian forces carried out an airstrike on the city of Sumy, resulting in the deaths of two people, with four others injured, including two children.
- On the night of September 8, Russian forces attacked Komyshany in Kherson Oblast, wounding four residents as a result of the shelling.
- At 10:30, the aggressor’s troops shelled the village of Cherkask, Kramatorsk district, using a multiple launch rocket system. The strike, involving cluster munitions, killed three women and wounded two men.
- In the Dnipro district of Kherson, six people were injured in an attack on a minibus by a Russian drone on the afternoon of September 8.
- On September 8, 2024, at around 12:50, the enemy shelled civilian infrastructure in Sumy, injuring a 35-year-old man and a 14-year-old teenager.
- On the afternoon of September 8, Russians attacked Derhachi in Kharkiv Oblast, killing a woman and injuring 13 others. At least eight houses were damaged.
- Ukraine’s Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets said that “Russian military are increasingly killing Ukrainian prisoners of war; this is being documented not only by international organizations but also by Ukrainian representatives.” In his opinion, such actions are encouraged by the higher leadership of the Russian Federation.
- On Monday, September 9, no scheduled power outages are planned, but “Ukrenergo” urges citizens to conserve electricity throughout the day. This marks the third day without outages.
Centre for Defence Strategies (CDS) is a Ukrainian security think tank. We operate since 2020.
We publish this brief daily. If you would like to subscribe, please send us an email at cds.dailybrief@gmail.com
The CDC Daily Brief is produced with the support of the Kyiv School of Economics https://kse.ua/
Please note, that we subscribe only verified persons and can decline or cancel the subscription at our own discretion
We are an independent, non-government, non-partisan, and non-profit organization. More at www.defence.org.ua
Our Twitter (in English) – https://twitter.com/defence_centre
Our Facebook (in Ukrainian) – https://www.facebook.com/cds.UA
Our brief is for information only and we verify our information to the best possible extent