Russia’s war on Ukraine. 09.09.24

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational Group of Forces (OTG) “Kharkiv” on the Kharkiv direction, the enemy continued assault actions, with 5 combat clashes occurring near Vovchansk, Tykhe, and Starytsya.

In the “Khortytsia” Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) operational zone on the Kupyansk direction, there were 15 combat engagements. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled enemy assaults near Synkivka, Stepova Novoselivka, Lozova, Stelmakhivka, Myasozharivka, and in the direction of Hlushkivka. On the Lyman direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 12 enemy assaults near Nevske, Novosadove, Torske, Dibrova, and Cherneshchyna. On the Siversk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces fended off 10 attacks near Spirne, Bilohorivka, Hryhorivka, and Verkhnyokamianske. On the Kramatorsk direction, Ukrainian troops stopped 10 enemy attempts to breach their defense lines near Andriivka, Mayske, Chasiv Yar, Bila Hora, Predtechyne, and Klishchiivka. On the Toretsk direction, the enemy, supported by aviation, launched 24 attacks, concentrating efforts in the areas of Pivnichne, Zalizne, New York, Toretsk, and Nelipivka, and assaulted defense positions near Druzhba.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone, on the Pokrovsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 39 attacks. The enemy focused its efforts near Zelene Pole, Vozdvyzhenka, Novotroitske, Hrodivka, Novohrodivka, Selydove, Marynivka, and Mykhailivka. On the Kurakhove direction,Ukrainian Defense Forces continued to hold back the enemy near Krasnohorivka, Dolynivka, Ukrainsk, Heorhiivka, and Kostyantynivka. In total, the invaders attempted to break through Ukrainian defenses 30 times on this direction. On the Vremivka direction, the occupiers made 4 attacks toward Vodyane but were unsuccessful. On the Orikhiv direction, the enemy experienced two unsuccessful combat engagements near Mala Tokmachka and Robotyne.

General conclusion:

• The operation in Kursk Oblast allows Ukrainian Defense Forces to build fortifications directly on the Ukrainian-Russian border in Sumy Oblast.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

• There were 164 combat engagements on various fronts.
• On the Kursk Direction: the 116th Mechanized Brigade struck a bridge over the Seim River near the village of Karyzh. The 82nd Separate Air Assault Brigade attacked in the area of Sheptukhovka. “Siversk” OTG continued its attacks near Snagost, Vishnevoe, Loknya, Maryivka, Martynovka, and Cherkasskaya Konopelka.
• Russian forces conducted counterattacks in Korenevo, near Olgovka, Cherkasskaya Konopelka, and recaptured lost positions south and east of Korenevo, within Sheptukhovka, and near Mala Loknya.
• On the Kharkiv direction, Russian forces attacked near Vovchansk and Hlyboke and carried out a fire strike with a TOС-1A at an Aggregate Plant in Vovchansk.
• Ukrainian Defense Forces attacked near Lyptsi.
• On the Kupyansk direction, Russian troops continued attacks near Synkivka, Petropavlivka, Stepova Novoselivka, Kyslivka, Kotlyarivka, Tabaiivka, Stelmakhivka, Hlushkivka, Andriivka, and Cherneshchyna, and shelled the Defense Forces’ pontoon crossings over the Oskil River.
• On the Lyman direction, Russian forces attacked near Novosadove, Nevske, Makiivka, Torske, and Dibrova.
• On the Siversk Direction, Russian forces continued offensive actions in the areas of Hryhorivka, Verkhnyokamianske, Spirne, and Vyimka.
• On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces advanced slightly north of Chasiv Yar, achieved minor successes in the fields north of Kalynivka, and continued their offensive towards Mayske, in the areas of Andriivka and Klishchiivka.
• On the Toretsk direction, the 53rd Separate Mechanized Brigade repells enemy attacks in the center of New York.
• Russian forces advanced in the eastern part of Toretsk, continued their offensive in the area of Nelipivka and Sukha Balka, and counterattacked in New York.
• On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces advanced closer to Hirnyk, attempted to encircle Ukrainian forces in Selydove, tried to encircle a Defense Forces unit near Zhelanne Pershe, and continued their offensive actions in the areas of Zelene Pole, Vozdvyzhenka, Hrodivka, towards Novotroitske, and in the areas of Novohrodivka, Selydove, Mykhailivka, Dolynivka, Ukrainka, and Halytsynivka.
• Ukrainian Defense Forces conducted several counterattacks near Selydove.
• On the Kurakhove direction, the enemy occupied Nevelske and advanced in Krasnohorivka, continuing their offensive in the area of Heorhiivka. Fighting continues north of Hirnyk.
• On the Vremivka direction, the enemy is increasing pressure towards Vuhledar, and the operational situation tends to escalate. The enemy is flanking Vodyane from two sides and trying to enter the village itself but has so far been unsuccessful. The enemy is advancing west of Kostyantynivka and along the southern bank of the Kashlahach River, in the area of Kostyantynivka and Vuhledar.
• The strength of the “Tavriya” OSG defense in the area of Vuhledar is ensured by the height near the “PIvdennodonbaska No. 1” mine, where fierce battles are taking place.
• On the Orikhiv direction, Russian forces advanced in Robotyne and captured two strongpoints west of Novoprokopivka. Fighting continued near Robotyne and Mala Tokmachka.
• On the Prydniprovskiy direction, positional battles continued on the eastern bank of Kherson Oblast, with Russian forces operating on the islands in the Dnipro River Delta.
• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
  • Black Sea: 1 ship, including 1 cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 4 cruise missiles.
  • Mediterranean Sea: 1 ship, 1 cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 4 cruise missiles.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

• The 3rd Motorized Rifle Battalion of the 35th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 41st Combined Arms Army operates in Hrodivka.
• The 23rd BARS detachment conducts combat operations in the area of Vuhledar.

Possible operation situation developments:

• The enemy’s command on the theater of operations must conduct strategic regrouping between operational zones and reinforce the “Tsentr (Center)”Operational Grouping on the Toretsk direction with at least a corps. For this purpose, the 3rd Army Corps may be redeployed to this direction from the Kramatorsk direction, or the main forces of the 51st Army may be concentrated.
• Without the involvement of additional forces and resources, the enemy’s 41st Army Command will soon have to either concentrate on narrower directions and sectors or abandon simultaneous offensive actions across the entire operational zone and focus on high-cost battles in Toretsk itself or conclude combat operations in the area of New York and Nelipivka.
• The enemy’s shift of their main offensive focus to the southern sector of the “Tsentr (Center)” Operational Grouping’s operational zone on the Pokrovsk direction will soon intensify combat operations around Selidove, Ukrainsk, Halytsynivka, Kurakhivka, and Hirnyk. Without securing the Selidove area, the enemy cannot sustain their offensive towards Pokrovsk, but they will continue attacking in an attempt to breach the defensive line along the Zhuravka and Kazennyi Torets rivers.
• The enemy’s “Tsentr (Center)” Operational Grouping may attempt to advance through “Tavriya” OSG positions along the Novohrodivka-Hrodivka line, despite higher levels of casualties, in order to maintain the speed of their advance and try to capture Myrnohrad more quickly.
• Delaying the decision to withdraw the “Tavriya” OSG forces from the bridgehead on the Vovcha River in the Nevelske area on the Pokrovsk direction to the Hirnyk – Kurakhivka line will lead to their encirclement.
• “Tavriya” OSG will not be able to hold the Zhelanne Pershe – Zhelanne Druhe line, as the enemy is already on the western bank of the Vovcha River and is actively advancing along it in a southern direction (Danylivka – Hirnyk). The situation could be salvaged if the “Tavriya” OSG forces reliably hold the Hirnyk – Kurakhivka line, though this remains uncertain.
• By the end of this year, the enemy will not only fail to occupy Donetsk Oblast within its administrative borders but also will be unable to seize the “fortress belt” of Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka-Kramatorsk-Slovyansk. The upcoming battle for Pokrovsk will be the climax of the enemy’s offensive operation in the Southwestern Theater of Operations in 2024.
• In the area of Staromayorske, the aggressor is forming a tactical breakthrough group consisting of 7,000 to 10,000 troops, which may attempt to break through in the direction of Velyka Novosilka. Another tactical group, smaller in size, is being formed east of Kostyantynivka with the objective of enveloping Vuhledar from the north or advancing towards Kurakhove from the south. The main problem is the lack of personnel. The most likely scenario would be an attempt to encircle and capture the areas of Makarivka – Velyka Novosilka – Zolota Nyva and Prechystivka – Pavlivka – Vodyane.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 09.09.24  

Personnel – almost 626,410 (+1,150); 

Tanks 8,639 (+3);

Armored combat vehicles – 16,906 (+9); 

Artillery systems – 17,830 (+26);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,180 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 942 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 24,262 (+44);

Aircraft – 368 (0);

Helicopters – 328 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 14,897 (+33);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,588 (0);

Boats/ships – 29 (0).

Humanitarian+general:

• On the night of September 9, Russian forces attacked Ukraine with three guided aviation missiles (Kh-59/69) and eight Shahed-type strike drones. Ukrainian air defense managed to shoot down two Kh-59/69 missiles and six of the strike drones.
• During the night, the enemy also launched strikes on Kharkiv using KAB bombs, causing a fire in the city.
• Kyiv’s Military Administration reported the fifth Russian drone attack on Kyiv since the beginning of September. All the drones posing a threat to the city were destroyed by air defense. The loitering munitions approached Kyiv after midnight in several waves.
• In the city of Nikopol, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, a 16-year-old child was killed, and three others were injured due to Russian shelling. The occupiers fired nearly a dozen shells at Nikopol, causing damage to private homes.
• In Kleban-Byk village near Toretsk, Donetsk Oblast, a woman was killed, and a man was injured following a Russian strike.
• On the afternoon of September 9, the enemy carried out an airstrike on settlements in the Sumy Oblast using KAB bombs. According to preliminary information, there were casualties.
• Also, on September 9, the Russian army attacked a civilian car in Antonivka, Kherson Oblast, using a drone, injuring two people.
• In mid-August, reports began to surface about pollution in the Seym River, which flows through the Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts from Russia’s Kursk Oblast. Locals noticed an oily film on the water surface and dead fish on the banks. The pollution later reached the Desna River, into which the Seym flows. A large part of Kyiv’s water supply comes from the Desna. On August 28, the Kyiv City Administration reassured residents that the water in the capital remains safe. Today, dead fish was observed in Desna in Chernihiv.
• Since February 2023, Ukrainian military intelligence’s radiological, chemical, and biological protection units have recorded 4,035 instances of Russian forces using specialized munitions containing hazardous chemicals, with 447 such cases reported in August 2024 alone.
• Over the past day, the enemy attacked energy infrastructure in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Sumy, Kharkiv, Kherson, and Chernihiv Oblasts. In Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv, shelling caused power outages at substations and for consumers, though power has been partially restored. In Donetsk, several substations and a mine were knocked offline during the shelling, trapping 74 workers underground. All workers have been safely evacuated. In Chernihiv Oblast, shelling disabled power lines, leaving 3,100 subscribers without electricity across three villages.

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