Russia’s war on Ukraine. 19.09.24

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational Group of Forces (OTG) “Kharkiv” on the Kharkiv direction, the enemy attempted 2 assaults near Vovchansk and Tykhe. Russian aircraft conducted strikes using guided bombs (KAB) on residential areas and civilian infrastructure in Vovchansk.

In the “Khortytsia” Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) operational zone on the Kupyansk direction, there were 15 Russian attacks. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled enemy assaults near Synkivka, Kruhlyakivka, Stelmakhivka, and Pishchane. On the Lyman direction, the enemy attacked 18 times, attempting to breach the defense near Druzhelyubivka, Cherneshchyna, Nevske, Makiivka, Novosadove, and Bilohorivka. On the Siversk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled three enemy assaults near Verkhnyokamianske and Ivano-Dariivka. On the Kramatorsk direction, the occupiers launched 4 attacks in the areas of Chasiv Yar, Stupochky, and Bila Hora. On the Toretsk direction, supported by aviation, the enemy conducted 12 attacks near Dachne, Nelipivka, Toretsk, and Shcherbynivka.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone, on the Pokrovsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces stopped 46 enemy attacks towards Vozdvyzhenka, Novooleksandrivka, Krasny Yar, Hrodivka, Novohrodivka, Marynivka, Myrolyubivka, and Mykhailivka, with the highest concentration of attacks near Novohrodivka. On the Kurakhove direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 40 attacks, with the most intense fighting around Kostyantynivka and Heorhiivka. Additionally, the enemy attacked towards Tsukuryne, Ukrainsk, Dalne, and Zhelanne Pershe. On the Vremivka direction, the enemy launched 7 assaults on Defense Forces’ positions near Katerynivka, Bohoyavlenka, Solodke, and Zolota Nyva, heavily employing both strike and bomber aviation. On the Hulyaipole direction, Russian invaders unsuccessfully attacked near Hulyaipole. On the Orikhiv direction, the occupiers conducted 5 assaults on Ukrainian Defense Forces positions near Mala Tokmachka and Novodanylivka.

In the operational zone of “Odesa” OSG on the Prydniprovskiy direction, the enemy unsuccessfully attacked 5 times

In Kursk Oblast, Ukrainian operation continues, with Russian aircraft conducting 19 airstrikes using 39 guided bombs on their own territory.

On the Volyn and Polissya directions, no signs of enemy offensive group formations were detected.

Along the border with Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts, the enemy actively uses artillery and aviation from Russian territory to target Ukrainian villages.

General conclusion:

• “Siversk” OTG successfully halted the Russian counteroffensive in Kursk Oblast and stabilized the situation.
• The aggressor has been unable to create favorable conditions for further advancement towards Katerynivka and Antonivka.
• In the Kurakhove direction, the enemy’s “Yug (South)” Operational Grouping is attempting to push “Tavriya” OSG units to the east of the Zhelanne Pershe–Zhelanne Druhe line. The goal is to eliminate Ukrainian Defense Forces’ bridgehead east of the Vovcha River in the direction of Nevelske, and to neutralize the Vuhledar salient held by Ukrainian Defense Forces, pushing them out from the area east of the Kurakhove–Novoukrayinka line.
• On the Kurakhove direction, as on the Pokrovsk direction, the enemy is forced to attack across a wide front. About 3-4 weeks ago, they were compelled to shift from simultaneous to sequential task execution. This trend is increasingly relevant for the “Yug (South)” Operational Grouping.
• The scope of the enemy’s offensive actions and the development of the situation on both the Kurakhove and Vuhledar directions are influenced by various factors, with the primary one being the availability of combat-capable forces and resources in the “Yug (South)” Operational Grouping.
• Ukrainian Defense Forces struck the 107th Arsenal of the Main Missile and Artillery Directorate (GRAU) of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, located in Toropets, Tver Oblast. Unconfirmed reports indicate the destruction of seven Kh-47 “Kinzhal” missiles, up to 20 North Korean KN-23ballistic missiles, and a certain number of ballistic missiles supplied by Iran.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

• There were 187 combat engagements on various fronts.
• On the Kursk Direction, “Siversk” OTG forces advanced east of Krasnooktyabrskoe and launched attacks near Vesioloe, Medvezhie, Novy Put, Obukhovka, Liubimovka, and Malaya Loknya.
• Russian forces counterattacked and made gains to the east along two wooded areas southeast of Korenevo and south of Obukhovka, as well as south of Durovka and along 35H-564 Highway (Korenevo – Sheptukhovka – Safonovka), near Olgovka and Uspenovka. Russian troops also advanced in the areas of Nikolaevo, Daryino, Liubimovka, Tolstyi Lug, and Plekhovo.
• On the Kharkiv direction, Russian forces continued assaults on Vovchansk, while Ukrainian forces from the “Kharkiv” OTG conducted counterattacks within Vovchansk and near Hlyboke and Lyptsi.
• On the Kupyansk direction, Russian troops pushed west of Tabaiivka, west of Karmazynivka, and south along the O131306 Highway (Svatove – Makiivka). They launched attacks in wooded areas near Pishchane and Nevske, and targeted positions near Synkivka, Kruhlyakivka, Kolisnykivka, Petropavlivka, Novoosynove, Stelmakhivka, Lozova, Andriivka, Cherneshchyna, Druzhelyubivka, and Hrekivka.
• On the Lyman direction, the enemy advanced south of Makiivka and launched attacks near Makiivka, Nevske, and Torske.
• On the Siversk Direction, Russian forces continued their offensive near Verkhnyokamianske and Vyimka but failed to make progress.
• On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces continued their offensive near Chasiv Yar, Stupochky, Bila Hora, and Klishchiivka without achieving any success. They are trying to establish mine-explosive barriers in the “Zhovtnevyi” neighborhood.
• On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces advanced along Tsentralna Street in the eastern part of Toretsk, in the wooded areas southeast of Toretsk, and continued their offensive near Dachne, Nelipivka, New York, Oleksandropil, in the direction of Shcherbynivka.
• On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces advanced west across the Zhuravka River within Hrodivka and to its northern outskirts, towards Hoholya Street in the northeastern part of Selydove, reached the northern outskirts of Hirnyk, and continued offensive actions near Novooleksandrivka, Novotoretske, Zelene Pole, Vozdvyzhenka, Krasnyi Yar, Novohrodivka, Orlivka, Selydove, Mykhailivka, Mykolaivka, Marynivka, Zhelanne Pershe, Ukrainsk, and Tsukuryne.
• On the Kurakhove direction, Ukrainain Defense Forces counterattacked near the “Pivdennodonbaska № 1” and “Pivdennodonbaska № 3” mines and launched a missile strike on enemy ammunition depots near Hlyboke in the Mariupol area.
• Russian forces continued offensive actions near Heorhiivka, Maksymilianivka, and in the direction of Dalne, advanced north of Vodyane, and attacked near the “Pivdennodonbaska № 1” mine, Kostyantynivka, Katerynivka, Bohoyavlenka, Vuhledar, and Novoukrayinka. Enemy aviation struck the Ternivka Dam at the Kurakhove Reservoir but has not inflicted serious damage on the dam’s road surface.
• The “Yug (South)” Operational Group is advancing on the Krasnohorivka – Kurakhivka, Heorhiivka – Kurakhove, and Kostyantynivka – Katerynivka directions, as well as west and north of Vuhledar, where a separate tactical group from the “Tsentr (Center)” Operational Grouping is tasked with capturing Vuhledar and the “Pivdennodonbaska № 1” mine.
• The enemy seeks to break through in the Krasnohorivka – Oleksandropil and Krasnohorivka – Hostre directions, capture Heorhiivka and Kostyantynivka, and advance toward Antonivka, Bohoyavlenka, Novoukrayinka, and push Ukrainian Defense Forces out of the Vuhledar area and the “Pivdennodonbaska № 1” mine. To achieve this, Russian forces attacked with small assault groups (ranging from 8 to 25 soldiers) with minimal armored vehicle support in the Krasnohorivka – Oleksandropil, Krasnohorivka – Hostre, Paraskoviivka – Antonivka, Vodyane – Kostyantynivka, Solodke – Katerynivka, Vodyane – Katerynivka, Mykilske – Vuhledar, and Prechystivka – Novoukrayinka directions.
• The enemy successfully expanded their presence on the southern bank of the Lozova River, west of Krasnohorivka, towards Hostre and Oleksandropil, but failed to penetrate the towns and could not fully capture Heorhiivka and Kostyantynivka, nor did they manage to advance toward Bohoyavlenka from the Vodyane direction.
• The enemy succeeded in gaining control over the territory of the “Pivdennodonbaska № 1” mine north of Vuhledar and made advances toward Katerynivka from the southeast, near Vodyane and the “Pivdennodonbaska № 3” mine, along the Prechystivka – Novoukrayinka and Prechystivka – Zolota Nyva directions, though progress here remains minimal.
• On the Hulyaipole direction, the enemy advanced in the Hulyaipole area, capturing territory northwest of Marfopil and advancing in fields northwest of Hulyaipole.
• On the Orikhiv direction, Russian forces attacked near Novodanylivka, Mala Tokmachka, Novoandriivka, and Shcherbaky, intensified operations near Kopani, and carried out airstrikes near Kamianske, Orikhiv, and Komyshuvakha.
• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
  • Black Sea: 1 ship, including 1 cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 4 cruise missiles.
  • Mediterranean Sea: 5 ships, 4 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 32 cruise missiles.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

• The 114th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 51st Combined Arms Army is operating in Ukrainsk.
• Forces of the 29th Combined Arms Army are advancing near the “Pivdennodonbaska No. 3” mine.
• On the Kurakhove direction, the enemy’s “Yug (South)” Operational Grouping consists of the 8th Combined Arms Army (20th and 150th Motorized Rifle Divisions), the main elements of the 51st Combined Arms Army (1st, 5th, 9th, and 110th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades), up to five motorized rifle regiments of territorial troops, and up to six Rifle Regiments of Mobilization Reserve. In the Vuhledar area, forces of the 68th Army Corps (39th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, reinforced by two motorized rifle regiments of territorial troops and a composite tactical group from the 18th Machine Gun – Artillery Division) conduct offensives.
• West of Pavlivka, near Prechystivka and Novodonetske, the enemy’s “Vostok (East)” Operational Grouping is advancing (36th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 29th Combined Arms Army, elements of the 57th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade from the 5th Combined Arms Army, and the 40th Separate Marines Brigade of the Pacific Fleet).
• Throughout September, the enemy’s military command in the theater of operations has been forced to redeploy units from the Kurakhove and Vremivka directions into the “Sever (North)” Operational Grouping or operational reserve, including the 155th Separate Marines Brigade of the Black Sea Fleet, the 33rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 20th Motorized Rifle Division, the 95th Rifle Regiment of Mobilization Reserve, and howitzer self-propelled artillery battalion of the 238th Artillery Brigade from the 8th Combined Arms Army.

Possible operation situation developments:

• The enemy will soon reach the left bank of the Oskil River in the Hlushkivka-Kruhlyakivka sector and split the “Khortytsia” OSG bridgehead on the Oskil River into two parts: a smaller northern (Kupyansk) and a larger southern (Borova) section.
• “Tavriya” OSG will not be able to hold the Zhelanne Pershe – Zhelanne Druhe line, as the enemy is already on the western bank of the Vovcha River and is actively advancing along it in a southern direction (Danylivka – Hirnyk). The situation could be salvaged if the “Tavriya” OSG forces reliably hold the Hirnyk – Kurakhivka line, though this remains uncertain.
• We should expect enemy attempts to repeat the tactical maneuver they used at the beginning of the assault on Chasiv Yar: concentrating a large grouping of forces in a narrow sector, creating high tactical density in their formations, while deploying reserves dispersed along the entire front. Until then, the enemy will continue its frontal assault towards Pokrovsk from the southeast, advancing along the Avdiivka-Pokrovsk railway in a relatively narrow corridor (up to 5 km wide) between the Solonenka and Zhuravka rivers.
• By the end of this year, the enemy will not only fail to occupy Donetsk Oblast within its administrative borders but also will be unable to seize the “fortress belt” of Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka-Kramatorsk-Slovyansk. The upcoming battle for Pokrovsk will be the climax of the enemy’s offensive operation in the Southwestern Theater of Operations in 2024.
• Securing a breakthrough toward Kurakhove remains the primary objective for the enemy’s “Yug (South)” Operational Grouping, particularly its 20th and 150th Motorized Rifle Divisions of the 8th Combined Arms Army. However, they lack the reserves necessary to achieve this.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 19.09.24  

Personnel – almost 638,140 (+1,130); 

Tanks 8,705 (+14);

Armored combat vehicles – 17,093 (+13); 

Artillery systems – 18,177 (+23);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,189 (+1);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 947 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 24,839 (+55);

Aircraft – 369 (0);

Helicopters – 328 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 15,417 (+63);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,592 (0);

Boats/ships – 29 (0).

Humanitarian+general:

• On the night of September 19, Air Defense shot down 42 Shahed strike drones over Ukraine, as well as a Kh-59/69 guided aviation missile. In total, the occupiers attacked with three S-300/S-400 surface-to-air missiles, one Kh-59/69 guided aviation missile, and 42 Shahed drones during the night. 
• One person was killed, and two others injured in a Russian KAB attack on the Zaporizhzhia district on September 19. Russian forces struck at least four times in the Komyshuvakha and Novooleksandrivka communities. The blast wave and debris from the Russian bombs damaged private houses and property. 
• On the night and morning of September 19, Russian forces carried out 19 attacks on border areas and villages in Sumy Oblast, with 38 explosions recorded. Two people were killed, and two others were injured. 
• Around 4 p.m. on Thursday, September 19, Russians struck a geriatric care home where 221 elderly people lived in Sumy with a guided aviation bomb. Thirteen people were injured, and one person was killed. 
• On September 19, during the day, Russian troops shelled the village of Vilcha in Chuhuiv district, Kharkiv Oblast. An 85-year-old man was killed on his birthday. Residential and administrative buildings in the settlement were damaged. 
• In Donetsk Oblast, 512 agricultural enterprises are currently operating, of which 353 (69%) have suffered losses and damage due to Russia’s full-scale war. At the beginning of 2022, 1,220 enterprises were working in the agricultural sector in Donetsk Oblast. 
• Lviv Mayor Andriy Sadovyi reported that police officers are now patrolling near Lviv schools, checking everyone who enters. These measures were taken in response to recent events in the city. The week started with vandals smashing one of the city’s central cafes. On the night of September 18, “unknown individuals” set fire to 8 objects in the city, including the Dzvin cinema building. Later, anonymous Telegram channels spread threats of terrorist attacks. According to the mayor, “No one can say for sure whether this is an information-psychological operation or real threats. One thing is clear – this is not the first time we’ve been intimidated through Telegram.” 
• Children from the temporarily occupied part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast have undergone another military training session conducted by Russian occupiers, reported Ukrainian Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets. Monitoring of occupation-related social media showed that Russian “instructors” taught children how to handle automatic weapons and practiced shooting from different positions. Occupiers also force Ukrainian children to wear uniforms and march with the Russian tricolor flag. 
• A new wave of Russian filtration measures has begun in temporarily occupied Crimea under the guise of the “Bars-Crimea” military exercises, according to the Center for National Resistance. Entire districts are being blocked, and local residents are being thoroughly checked. These filtration measures are being conducted to identify “unreliable” elements on the occupied peninsula.

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