Центр оборонних стратегій

Russia’s war on Ukraine. 20.09.24

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational Group of Forces (OTG) “Kharkiv” on the Kharkiv direction, there were 3 combat clashes in the areas of Vovchansk and Tykhe.

In the “Khortytsia” Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) operational zone on the Kupyansk direction, there were 13 attacks over the past day. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled enemy assaults near Synkivka, Stelmakhivka, and Hlushkivka. On the Lyman direction, the enemy attacked 28 times near Makiivka, Cherneshchyna, Nevske, and Torske. On the Siversk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled Russian assaults near Verkhnyokamianske, Ivano-Dariivka, and Vyimka, with a total of 8 clashes. On the Kramatorsk direction, the occupiers attacked 3 times in the areas of Kurdyumivka and Ivanivske. On the Toretsk direction, the enemy launched 14 attacks near Toretsk, Shcherbynivka, and Nelipivka.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zoneon the Pokrovsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 41 assaults in the areas of Vozdvyzhenka, Novotoretsk, Hrodivka, Myrolyubivka, Mykolaivka, Novohrodivka, and Marynivka, where the invaders, supported by aviation, tried to displace Ukrainian units from their positions. The heaviest concentration of enemy attacks was near Novohrodivka and Marynivka. On the Kurakhove direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 63 attacks near Tsukuryne, Heorhiivka, Kostyantynivka, and Katerynivka, where the enemy tried to break through the defense. On the Vremivka direction the enemy launched 6 assaults near Vuhledar, Rivnopil, and Katerynivka. On the Orikhiv direction, the occupiers continued to attempt to displace Ukrainian units from their positions. Six Russian attacks failed in the areas of Pyatykhatky, Robotyne, and in the direction of Novoandriivka and Novodanylivka. There were no significant changes on the Hulyaipole direction.

In the operational zone of “Odesa” OSG on the Prydniprovskiy direction, there were 3 combat clashes in the island area of the Dnipro River Delta.

On the Volyn and Polissya directions, no signs of enemy offensive group formations were detected.

Ukrainian Defense Forces continue operations in Kursk Oblast. Enemy aviation continues to bomb its own territory. Over the past day, Russian aircraft carried out 18 airstrikes, dropping 27 guided aerial bombs (KAB).

Along the border with Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts, the enemy maintains a military presence, shelling Ukrainian villages from Russian territory, conducting sabotage-reconnaissance activities, and increasing the density of mine barriers along Ukraine’s state border.

General conclusion:

  • Russian troops have mined dams in Belgorod Oblast to slow down the advance of Ukrainian Defense Forces in the event of an invasion and are actively building fortifications around Belgorod.
  • The offensive activity of the Russian Armed Forces on the Lyptsi – Hlyboke line has decreased, the enemy is fortifying its positions in the area. The enemy has intensified remote mining on the front lines on the Kharkiv direction, Russian troops are currently focused on disbanding assault groups and improving command and control and communications to resume offensive operations.
  • The enemy on the Kharkiv direction is actively using UAVs to deliver food to troops on the front lines, who have massive health problems because they are forced to get food and water near their positions due to the lack of provisions.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

  • There were 226 combat engagements on various fronts.
  • On the Kursk Direction, “Siversk” OTG advanced slightly east of Vesioloe, in the center of Medvezhie, southeast of Sheptukhovka, southeast of Naydenov, and near Liubimovka, Obukhovka, Kremyanoe, and Borkш. It attacked the areas of Novyi Put, Obukhovka, and Medvezhie.
  • Russian forces advanced and captured Nokolaevo-Daryino and Daryino, made progress in the Obukhovka area, southeast of Korenevo, and northwest of Liubimovka.
  • On the Kharkiv direction, Russian forces advanced into the summer home areas west of Hlyboke and along the Travyanske Reservoir. They attacked near Hlyboke, Vovchansk, and Tyche, storming “Kharkiv” OTG positions in Vovchansk.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces made slight advances in western Makiivka, moved southeast of Kupiansk, advanced toward Hlushkivka, west and north of Pishchane, and south of Stelmakhivka. They attacked near Synkivka, Stelmakhivka, Hlushkivka, Kruhlyakivka, Pishchane, Druzhelyubivka, Makiivka, Cherneshchyna, Nevske, and Novosadove.
  • On the Lyman direction, the enemy is advancing near Torske.
  • On the Siversk Direction, Russian forces advanced southeast of Vyimka and continued their offensive near Verkhnyokamianske, Ivano-Dariivka, and Vyimka.
  • On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces slightly advanced in Hryhorivka and attacked near Chasiv Yar, Stupochky, Bila Hora, and Kurdyumivka. The Defense Forces are using drones to strike Russian forces attempting to cross the “Siversky Donets-Donbas” canal near Chasiv Yar.
  • On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces continued their offensive actions, advanced on the eastern outskirts of Toretsk, and captured a spoil heap north of Zalizne. Fighting continued near Dachne, Nelipivka, and toward Shcherbynivka.
  • On the Pokrovsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces advanced southeast of Marynivka.
  • Russian forces advanced southwest of Mykhailivka, deployed sabotage-reconnaissance groups near Selydove, and advanced in northern Hrodivka, northwest of Ukrainsk, north of Hirnyk, and toward Selydove. They attacked near Vozdvyzhenka, Myrolyubivka, Novooleksandrivka, Novotoretske, Hrodivka, Krasnyi Yar, Mykolaivka, Novohrodivka, Marynivka, Mykhailivka, Zhelanne Pershe, Ukrainsk, and Tsukuryne.
  • On the Kurakhove direction, Russian forces attacked near Heorhiivka, toward Dalnie, and near Vuhledar, Kostyantynivka, Katerynivka, Bohoyavlenka, and Vodyane.
  • On the Vremivka direction, Russian forces launched offensive actions near Zolota Nyva, close to Makarivka, and near Novodarivka, Rivnopil, and toward Solodke.
  • On the Hulyaipole direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked north of Marfopil, while Russian forces attacked near Hulyaipole.
  • On the Orikhiv direction, Russian forces attacked near Novodanylivka, Mala Tokmachka, toward Novoandriivka, and southeast of Stepnohirsk near Pyatykhatky.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
    • Black Sea: 1 ship, including 1 cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 4 cruise missiles.
    • Mediterranean Sea: 5 ships, 4 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 32 cruise missiles.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

  • The “Kursk Knights” unit of the “Pyatnashka” Battalion is operating Near Borki. Additionally, the 2nd Separate SOF Brigade is active in Kursk Oblast. 
  • The enemy’s “Sever (North)” Operational Grouping is focused on restoring the combat capability of the 11th Tank Regiment of the 18th Motorized Rifle Division of the 11th Army Corps near Hlyboke, the 7th Separate Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 11th Army Corps near Lyptsi, and the 380th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 47th Motorized Rifle Division of the 1st Tank Army near Lukyantsi.  Units of the 128th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 44th Army Corps and the 82nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 69th Motorized Rifle Division of the 6th Army are operating in the area of Vovchansk. 
  • The 3rd Motorized Rifle Battalion of the 35th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 41st Army is engaged in combat in Hrodivka. 
  • The 39th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 68th Army Corps, the 36th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 29th Army, and the 57th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 6th Motorized Rifle Division of the 3rd Army Corps conduct operations west and north of Vuhledar.

Possible operation situation developments:

  • The enemy will soon reach the left bank of the Oskil River in the Hlushkivka-Kruhlyakivka sector and split the “Khortytsia” OSG bridgehead on the Oskil River into two parts: a smaller northern (Kupyansk) and a larger southern (Borova) section.
  • “Tavriya” OSG will not be able to hold the Zhelanne Pershe – Zhelanne Druhe line, as the enemy is already on the western bank of the Vovcha River and is actively advancing along it in a southern direction (Danylivka – Hirnyk). The situation could be salvaged if the “Tavriya” OSG forces reliably hold the Hirnyk – Kurakhivka line, though this remains uncertain.
  • We should expect enemy attempts to repeat the tactical maneuver they used at the beginning of the assault on Chasiv Yar: concentrating a large grouping of forces in a narrow sector, creating high tactical density in their formations, while deploying reserves dispersed along the entire front. Until then, the enemy will continue its frontal assault towards Pokrovsk from the southeast, advancing along the Avdiivka-Pokrovsk railway in a relatively narrow corridor (up to 5 km wide) between the Solonenka and Zhuravka rivers.
  • By the end of this year, the enemy will not only fail to occupy Donetsk Oblast within its administrative borders but also will be unable to seize the “fortress belt” of Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka-Kramatorsk-Slovyansk. The upcoming battle for Pokrovsk will be the climax of the enemy’s offensive operation in the Southwestern Theater of Operations in 2024.
  • Securing a breakthrough toward Kurakhove remains the primary objective for the enemy’s “Yug (South)” Operational Grouping, particularly its 20th and 150th Motorized Rifle Divisions of the 8th Combined Arms Army. However, they lack the reserves necessary to achieve this.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 20.09.24  

Personnel – almost 639,480 (+1,340); 

Tanks 8,725 (+20);

Armored combat vehicles – 17,132 (+39); 

Artillery systems – 18,212 (+35);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,189 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 949 (+2);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 24,898 (+59);

Aircraft – 369 (0);

Helicopters – 328 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 15,469 (+52);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,593 (+1);

Boats/ships – 29 (0).

Humanitarian+general:

  • During the night of September 20, the Russian forces attacked Donetsk Oblast with three missiles of an unknown type, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast with an X-59 guided air missile, and launched 70 Shahed-type attack drones across Ukraine. Sixty-one attack drones and one X-59 guided missile were shot down. Nine enemy drones were lost in several oblasts of Ukraine (no reports of casualties or destruction have been received).
  • In Kherson Oblast on the morning of September 20, one person was killed and five others were injured due to Russian attacks. Three people were injured when explosive devices were dropped from drones onto civilian targets.
  • On September 20, Russian forces launched a missile strike on Odesa, wounding four people. Fragments, likely from an Iskander-M missile, damaged port and civilian infrastructure, as well as a civilian vessel flying the flag of Antigua.
  • Russian occupiers carried out two strikes with guided air bombs on Kharkiv, resulting in three casualties in the Osnovyanskyi district of the city.
  • Additionally, the enemy continues its daily terror against the civilian population of Kharkiv Oblast. Around 2:00 p.m., the occupiers shelled the village of Ivashky in the Zolochiv community with mortars, injuring three people. After 3:00 p.m., they struck Kivsharivka in the Kupiansk district. As of 5:00 p.m., two civilian deaths were reported.
  • As a result of Russian shelling in Kherson and Stanislav in Kherson Oblast during the day on September 20, two people were killed — a 74-year-old woman and a 27-year-old man — and four others were injured.
  • Throughout the day, the enemy attacked Nikopol District about twenty times. The area suffered from kamikaze drones and artillery shelling. The aggressor also dropped a munition from a drone, injuring a 48-year-old man.
  • Over the past day, September 19, Russian forces carried out 2,816 shellings of Donetsk Oblast, damaging 58 civilian objects.
  • Russian troops launched 104 attacks using various types of weapons on the border territories of Chernihiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv Oblasts over the past day, resulting in a total of 383 explosions.
  • According to the Center for National Resistance, in addition to the registry of “abandoned” properties, Russian occupiers have begun creating a similar database and are initiating the process of seizing land plots from local residents in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine. Land plots designated for individual housing construction or personal household farming will be confiscated from their owners starting March 1, 2025, if no construction has been carried out on them in the past two years.
  • The Russian Investigative Committee has announced the completion of its investigation into the murder of U.S. citizen Russell Bentley, who lived in temporarily occupied Donetsk. According to the investigation, the American was killed in April this year by Russian soldiers. The investigation claims that three Russian military personnel tortured and beat Bentley to death, then blew up the car with his body using a TNT block. A fourth person moved the remains from the crime scene to conceal the murder.

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