Russia’s war on Ukraine. 21.09.24

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational Group of Forces (OTG) “Kharkiv” on the Kharkiv direction, 3 enemy attacks were repelled near Vovchansk.

In the “Khortytsia” Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) operational zone on the Kupyansk direction, the enemy launched 19 assaults. Ukrainian Defense Forces successfully repelled all attacks near Stepova Novoselivka, Synkivka, Stelmakhivka, Kruhlyakivka, and Lozova.  On the Lyman direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 10 enemy assaults near Cherneshchyna, Hrekivka, Druzhelyubivka, Novosadove, Terny, and Zarichne. The enemy concentrated efforts towards Nevske, conducting 8 more assaults there. On the Siversk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled an enemy assault near Vyimka. With air support on the Kramatorsk direction, the enemy tried 9 times to breach Ukrainian defenses near Chasiv Yar, Kalynivka, Ivanivske, and Bila Hora. Near Dachne, Toretsk, and Shcherbynivka on the Toretsk direction, the enemy launched 9 assaults.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone, on the Pokrovsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 36 enemy assaults of varying intensity near Zelene Pole, Marynivka, Krasnyi Yar, Vozdvyzhenka, Novotoretsk, Myrolyubivka, Hrodivka, Chervone, Selydove, and Novohrodivka. On the Kurakhove direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled enemy attacks near Tsukuryne, Zhelanne Pershe, Heorhiivka, Hirnyk, Dalnie, Oleksandrivka, Katerynivka, and Kostyantynivka, where the enemy attempted to break through defenses 58 times. The most intense enemy action was near Heorhiivka, where 21 assaults occurred in one day. With air support, the enemy attacked Ukrainian positions 18 times on the Vremivka directionnear Vuhledar, Prechystivka, Novodarivka, and Bohoyavlenka. On the Orikhiv direction, six engagements took place near Mala Tokmachka, Lobkove, and Novodanylivka.

In the operational zone of “Odesa” OSG on the Prydniprovskiy direction, 3 enemy attacks were unsuccessful

On the Volyn and Polissya directions, the operational situation remains unchanged. There are no signs of enemy offensive group formations.

In Kursk Oblast, enemy aircraft conducted 22 airstrikes, dropping 25 guided bombs (KAB) on Russian Federation territory.

General conclusion:

• The enemy command in the theater of operations, at least in the short term, does not plan to halt its currently successful offensive in the Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Kurakhove, and Kupyansk directions, and will limit maneuvering of strategic and operational reserves in other areas, including Kursk Oblast.
• The situation in Kursk Oblast shows that the leadership of the counterterrorist operation will need to deploy a force grouping, mainly consisting of motorized rifle and tank units, to reclaim territory. They’ll also need to overhaul the command and control structure for operations in this sector.
• The enemy established pontoon crossings in the areas of Zvannoye and Glushkovo and restored a bridge crossing near the village of Zvannoye.
• The retention of Glushkovo, as a key defensive hub ensuring overall resilience, is of critical importance to the enemy.
• The forces and resources of “Tavriya” OSG in the Vuhledar area are insufficient to repel the offensive of the Russian grouping attacking in that sector.
• The enemy maintains its logistical advantage on the Pokrovsk direction and actively disrupts “Tavriya” OSG logistical support of in that area.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

• There were 217 combat engagements on various fronts.
• On the Kursk Direction, the enemy, using forward elements of the 810th Separate Marines Brigade of the Black Sea Fleet, attempted to break through in the Zhuravli-Kremyanoe direction, forcing “Siversk” OTG units out of Zhuravli. Using the 51st Airborne Regiment of the 106th Airborne Division and the 56th Air Assault Regiment of the 7th Air Assault Division, the enemy also tried to advance on the Snagost-Liubimovka and Obukhovka-Daryino directions, reaching positions west of Daryino and attempting to gain full control of Liubimovka. The 51st Airborne Regiment attacked in the Snagost-Obukhovka direction, while the 810th Separate Marines Brigade advanced along the Aleksandrovka-Vetreno line. Supported by the 200th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 14th Army Corps and elements of the 11th Separate Air Assault Brigade, the enemy pushed from Kamyshovka towards Pogrebki. The 155th Separate Marines Brigade of the Pacific Fleet, supported by a battalion from the 488th Motorized Rifle Regiment, advanced along the Psel River from Borki towards Plekhovo. All these attacks failed. The 155th Separate Marines Brigade is now transitioning to a defensive posture near Glushkovo, while elements of the 106th Airborne Division hold positions south of Glushkovo, establishing a defensive line up to the state border.
• “Siversk” OTG forces have entrenched in Volfino, Vesioloe, and Medvezhie. The 95th Separate Air Assault Brigade has taken control of a gardening community, and the 21st Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade now holds Yelizavetovka.
• On the Kharkiv direction, “Kharkiv” OTG advanced to Heroiv Chornobyla Street in central Vovchansk, with ongoing battles near the Aggregate Producing Plant.
• Russian forces advanced 300 meters north of Tykhe along the Travyanske Reservoir and secured positions on the northern outskirts of Hlyboke.
• On the Kupyansk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled an enemy attack east of Kovalivka.
• Russian forces advanced 2.5 kilometers towards Kivsharivka and continued attacks near Synkivka, Stepova Novoselivka, Hlushkivka, and towards Lozova.
• On the Lyman direction, Russian forces advanced within the northwestern part of Makiivka and in fields east of Nevske, and attacked near Cherneshchyna, Hrekivka, Druzhelyubivka, Nevske, Novosadove, Terny, Zarichne, Torske, and in the Serebriansk Forest area.
• On the Siversk Direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces made minor advances northeast of Verkhnyokamianske and west of Sakko i Vantsetti.
• The enemy attempted assaults on Ukrainian Defense Forces positions near Ivano-Dariivka and Vyimka.
• On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces continued offensive actions near Chasiv Yar, Ivanivske, Kurdyumivka, Stupochky, and Bila Hora.
• On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces made slight advances towards Tereshkova Street in the eastern part of Toretsk, further within Toretsk itself and near New York, continuing offensive actions near Dachne, Nelipivka, and Shcherbynivka.
• On the Pokrovsk direction, the enemy reached the main “Tavriya” OSG defensive line before Pokrovsk but began advancing westward along the defensive line, rather than breaking through to the north. The enemy is consolidating positions in Novohrodivka, Ukrainsk, advancing southwest of Mykhailivka, in northern Hrodivka, near Selydove, south of Karlivka, and west of Nevelske.
• Based on this, it is expected that the “Tsentr (Center)” Operational Grouping will first defend Selydove (currently held by “our” reorganized 151st Separate Mechanized Brigade), advancing north of it (from Novohrodivka in a western direction) and south (from Ukrainsk in a western direction) – before turning north and launching an actual assault on Pokrovsk.
• “Tavriya” OSG troops hold their positions near Selydove. Battles continue near Vozdvyzhenka, Novotoretske, Hrodivka, Novohrodivka, Myrolyubivka, Selydove, Mykolaivka, Marynivka, Hirnyk, Zhelanne Pershe, and Tsukuryne.
• On the Kurakhove direction, Russian forces advanced west of Hostre, towards Vuhledar, near Vodyane, north of Kostyantynivka, and continued offensive actions near Heorhiivka, in the direction of Dalnie, near Katerynivka, Kostyantynivka, Vodyane, Vuhledar, and near Prechystivka, advancing towards Bohoyavlenka.
• On the Vremivka direction, Russian forces conducted offensive actions near Rivnopil.
• On the Orikhiv direction, Russian forces attacked near Robotyne, Novodanylivka, Mala Tokmachka, advancing towards Novoandriivka, Lobkove, and Pyatykhatky, launching airstrikes on Pyatykhatky and Kamianske.
• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
  • Black Sea: 1 ship, including 1 cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 4 cruise missiles.
  • Mediterranean Sea: 2 ships, 2 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 20 cruise missiles.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

• Over the past week, the 119th and 137th Airborne Regiments of the 106th Airborne Division, along with two howitzer artillery batteries from the 52nd Artillery Brigade of the Russian Armed Forces, have arrived in Kursk Oblast.
• The command of the Leningrad Military District is forming the 71st Motorized Rifle Division (expected personnel strength of up to 11,000 servicemen) based on the 200th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 14th Army Corps. Overall, the district is preparing to transfer reserves with a total strength of up to 15,000 servicemen.
• The 3rd Battalion of the 245th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 47th Tank Division, 1st Tank Army operates on the Pokrovsk direction. The battalion was formed from the crew of the “Admiral Kuznetsov” aircraft carrier.
• Units of the 61st Separate Marines Brigade of the Northern Fleet are active on the Kherson direction.

Possible operation situation developments:

• The enemy will soon reach the left bank of the Oskil River in the Hlushkivka-Kruhlyakivka sector and split the “Khortytsia” OSG bridgehead on the Oskil River into two parts: a smaller northern (Kupyansk) and a larger southern (Borova) section.
• “Tavriya” OSG will not be able to hold the Zhelanne Pershe – Zhelanne Druhe line, as the enemy is already on the western bank of the Vovcha River and is actively advancing along it in a southern direction (Danylivka – Hirnyk). The situation could be salvaged if the “Tavriya” OSG forces reliably hold the Hirnyk – Kurakhivka line, though this remains uncertain.
• We should expect enemy attempts to repeat the tactical maneuver they used at the beginning of the assault on Chasiv Yar: concentrating a large grouping of forces in a narrow sector, creating high tactical density in their formations, while deploying reserves dispersed along the entire front. Until then, the enemy will continue its frontal assault towards Pokrovsk from the southeast, advancing along the Avdiivka-Pokrovsk railway in a relatively narrow corridor (up to 5 km wide) between the Solonenka and Zhuravka rivers.
• By the end of this year, the enemy will not only fail to occupy Donetsk Oblast within its administrative borders but also will be unable to seize the “fortress belt” of Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka-Kramatorsk-Slovyansk. The upcoming battle for Pokrovsk will be the climax of the enemy’s offensive operation in the Southwestern Theater of Operations in 2024.
• Securing a breakthrough toward Kurakhove remains the primary objective for the enemy’s “Yug (South)” Operational Grouping, particularly its 20th and 150th Motorized Rifle Divisions of the 8th Combined Arms Army. However, they lack the reserves necessary to achieve this.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 21.09.24  

Personnel – almost 640,920 (+1,440); 

Tanks 8,746 (+21);

Armored combat vehicles – 17,170 (+38); 

Artillery systems – 18,270 (+58);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,193 (+4);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 949 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 24,966 (+68);

Aircraft – 369 (0);

Helicopters – 328 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 15,561 (+92);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,593 (0);

Boats/ships – 29 (0).

Humanitarian + general:

• Ukrainian air defense forces shot down 5 guided missiles and 11 attack UAVs over six regions on the night of September 21. In total, Russia launched 25 aerial targets against Ukraine.
• On the night of September 21, Russian invaders launched a missile strike on the city of Kryvyi Rih, killing at least three people, including a child, and injuring three others. Two private homes caught fire, more than 20 houses were damaged, and two were destroyed. A school, garage, and cars were also damaged.
• On Saturday, Russian forces struck Sumy with guided bombs, injuring one person and damaging or destroying private homes.
• On Saturday, September 21, Russian troops dropped explosives from a drone on Stanislav in the Bilozerka community of Kherson Oblast, injuring a 72-year-old woman. Earlier, a 48-year-old man was injured in Kherson by explosives dropped from a drone.
• On September 20, around 22:45, Russian forces launched another mass shelling of Kharkiv. A Su-34 aircraft was used to launch three FAB-250 guided bombs with UMPK. Fifteen people were injured, including two girls aged 10 and 17.
• Throughout Friday, September 20, the enemy launched five missile strikes on Ukrainian positions and settlements, using six missiles, 73 air strikes, and dropping 108 guided bombs. Another 25 bombs were dropped by Russian forces on their own Kursk Oblast, according to the General Staff.
• The Prosecutor General’s Office gathered evidence that on September 12, the Russian army deliberately attacked three vehicles of the International Committee of the Red Cross in the village of Virolubivka in Donetsk Oblast during the distribution of humanitarian aid. Three men were killed on the spot. Two of their colleagues suffered shrapnel wounds and blast injuries. Law enforcement identified two artillery shell impact sites and one strike from a UAV.
• The Ukrainian Prosecutor General’s Office reported that the damages from Russia’s seizure of Ukrainian grain amount to over 30 billion UAH, though this figure is not final.
• Since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion, 123 Ukrainian artists who joined the Armed Forces have died. Additionally, Russia has destroyed or damaged over a thousand cultural heritage sites in Ukraine, according to Minister of Culture and Strategic Communications Mykola Tochytskyi.

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