Russia’s war on Ukraine. 24.09.24

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational Group of Forces (OTG) “Kharkiv” on the Kharkiv direction, two combat engagements occurred near Lyptsi and Tykhe.

In the “Khortytsia” Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) operational zone were seven clashes on the Kupyansk direction. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled enemy attacks near Hlushkivka, Kucherivka, Kolisnykivka, and Stelmakhivka. On the Lyman direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 19 enemy attacks near Cherneshchyna, Druzhelyubivka, Nevske, Makiivka, Dibrova, Torske, and Dronivka. On the Siversk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces halted an attack near Fedorivka. Ukrainian troops repelled 5 Russian attempts to advance near Kalynivka, Klishchiivka, Bila Hora, and Predtechyne on the Kramatorsk direction. Supported by assault aviation, the enemy tried 15 times to advance on the Toretsk direction, assaulting Ukrainian positions near Dachne, Toretsk, and Nelipivka.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone, on the Pokrovsk direction, there were 30 enemy attacks.  The enemy attempted to advance toward Vozdvyzhenka, Marynivka, Myrolyubivka, Novotoretske, Mykolaivka, Novohrodivka, Zhuravka, Krasnyi Yar, and Zelene Pole. Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold the enemy on the Kurakhove direction, near Tsukuryne, Heorhiivka, Kostyantynivka, Katerynivka, and Ukrainsk, where the occupiers made 21 attempts to breach Ukrainian defensive lines. Near Pavlivka and Vuhledar on the Vremivka direction, the enemy made 8 attempts to capture Ukrainian positions. On the Orikhiv direction, the enemy attacked near Novoandriivka.

In the operational zone of “Odesa” OSG on the Prydniprovskiy direction, the enemy conducted four unsuccessful assaults, retreating after being repelled.

On the Volyn and Polissya directions, there are no signs of enemy offensive group formations. The operational situation remains largely unchanged.

Ukrainian Defense Forces continue their operation in Kursk Oblast, where the enemy launched 11 airstrikes, using 15 guided bombs (KAB), and carried out 6 MLRS strikes.

General conclusion:

• The intensity of Russian attacks south of the Seym River has decreased, with the enemy shifting to defense but still attacking in the area of Liubimovka and Daryino.
• “Siversk” OTG has the opportunity to bypass Korenevo from the north, reach the Seym River, and cut off the Russian grouping of up to 4,000 troops south of the river. This grouping has extremely limited logistical capabilities, vulnerable due to reliance on pontoon crossings and the bridge at Zvannoye.
• Russian forces north of Kharkiv are transitioning to defense.
• Ukrainian Defense Forces are unable to launch a counteroffensive near Vovchansk, as the enemy holds an advantage in manpower and equipment.
• Changes in the composition of the enemy “Tsentr (Center)” and “Yug (South)” Operational Groupings may suggest a realignment of the boundaries between their operational zones, the Kurakhove direction now falling under the”Tsentr (Center)” Operational Grouping while the Vuhledar direction is under “Yug (South)” Operational Grouping.
• The main task of the enemy’s “Zapad (West)” Operational Grouping is to reach the Oskil River and split “Tavriya” OSG in that area. A further advance and forcing Ukrainian Defense Forces from the eastern bank of the Oskil River seems unlikely due to a lack of reserves.
• The enemy’s advance westward in the Chasiv Yar area will be complicated by the need to cross the “Siversky Donets–Donbas” Canal, even though it contains no water. The enemy lacks sufficient engineering and crossing equipment.
• The capture of Selydove remains a key condition for the enemy’s next operation to capture Pokrovsk.
• Russian tactics on the Pokrovsk direction have changed. Russian units use faster and more mobile forces, employing tactics similar to the assault techniques used by Wagner PMC, with small infantry units attacking from multiple directions simultaneously.
• The pace of the operation to encircle Vuhledar and reach Kurakhove is not meeting the planned schedule, and the enemy is unable to stick to its timetable.
• On the Kurakhove direction, enemy units have received new and repaired armored vehicles and tanks, allowing them to intensify their offensive on Hostre and Maksymilianivka.
• Ukrainian Defense Forces need to strengthen air defense capabilities in the Zaporizhzhia area to protect logistics and transport infrastructure, particularly against air-dropped bombs with UMPK modules. The issue of countering air platforms carrying UMPK-equipped bombs is becoming more critical.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

• There were 143 combat engagements on various fronts.
• On the Kursk Direction, the enemy has restored the bridge near Zvannoye.
• “Siversk” OTG continues its offensive on Zvannoye, Glushkovo, and the Glushkovo railway station, cutting the Korenevo–Lgov highway north of Korenevo and reaching the Rylsk–Korenevo road, advancing to the southern outskirts of Vesioloe, attacking near Novyi Put, Medvezhie, near Liubimovka, Daryino, Nikolaevo-Daryino, Malaya Loknya, and Plekhovo.
• Russian troops attacked and advanced to Plekhovo.
• On the Kharkiv direction, Russian troops are defending at the Hlyboke–Lyptsi line, reinforcing their positions near Starytsya, improving logistics, and organizing their command structure, but they attacked near Lyptsi, Vovchansk, and Tykhe, making minor advances west of Hlyboke. The enemy is using remote means to mine northern Kharkiv Oblast with anti-personnel mines “Lepestok PFM-1” and is increasingly employing the TOS-1A.
• On the Kupyansk direction, the enemy has practically reached the Oskil River west of Pishchane, increasing pressure in the Synkivka area.
• Russian troops have advanced in the fields east of Kolisnykivka and east of Kruhlyakivka, near Synkivka, and continued attacks near Petropavlivka, Hlushkivka, Lozova, and Stelmakhivka. The enemy’s aviation continues to strike Ukrainian pontoon crossings over the Oskil River, particularly in the Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi area.
• Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked toward Kotlyarivka (directly east of Kupiansk).
• On the Lyman direction, the enemy attacked near Makiyivka, Nevske, Cherneshchyna, Druzhelyubivka, Novosadove, Torske, and Dibrova. The enemy is attempting to take control of Nevske.
• On the Siversk Direction, Russian troops unsuccessfully continued their assault near Vyimka.
• On the Kramatorsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces units retreated from under Andriivka.
• The enemy is unsuccessfully trying to break through west of Kalynivka, continuing the offensive in the area of Chasiv Yar, Hryhorivka, Kalynivka, Klishchiivka, Predtechyne, Stupochky, and Bilia Hora.
• On the Toretsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces units hold their positions in Toretsk, Dachne, and Nelypivka.
• The enemy has regained control over previously lost positions on the outskirts of New York, is increasing pressure near Nelypivka, and continues the assault near Dachne and Shcherbynivka. Up to two combined battalions were redeployed to the Lisivka area on the Pokrovsk direction.
• On the Pokrovsk direction, the enemy is trying to capture Ukrainsk, bypassing Selydove from the south, advancing north of Tsukuryne, east of Mykolaivka, northwest and southwest of Ukrainsk, north of Tsukuryne, having captured Zhelanne Druhe and Kruty Yar.
• Ukrainian Defense Forces have withdrawn their units from the Nevelske bulge, continuing to hold Zhelanne Pershe.
• Fighting continues in the areas of Vozdvyzhenka, Novotoretske, Hrodivka, Krasnyi Yar, Novohrodivka, Selydove, Orlivka, Marynivka, Mykhailivka, and Myrolyubivka.
• On the Kurakhove direction, Russian troops continued the offensive in the area of Heorhiivka, advancing near Maksymilianivka, having captured Hostre.
• On the Vremivka direction, active combat operations are ongoing in the areas of the “Pivdennodonbaska No. 3″ mine near Vodyane and ” Pivdennodonbaska No. 1″ mine east of Vuhledar.
• Russian troops are increasing the pace of the offensive near Vuhledar, having advanced northwest in the fields and west of Vodyane and east of Vuhledar, near the ravine on the Kostyantynivka–Vodyane line, attacked Pavlivka, and are fighting in the gardening community east of Vuhledar. The 40th Separate Marines Brigade of the Pacific Fleet advanced west of Vuhledar. The enemy advanced north and east to Vuhledar from the direction of Prechystivka, capturing the forest belts parallel to the Kashlahach River. Fighting clashes occurred near Zolota Nyva.
• Ukrainian Defense Forces are beginning to retreat from the southeastern outskirts of Vuhledar.
• The enemy strike group concentrated in the direction of Velyka Novosilka has not yet been engaged in the operation.
• On the Orikhiv direction, the enemy attacked in the area of Robotyne and Novoandriivka.
• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
  • Black Sea: 1 ship, including 0 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 0 cruise missiles.
  • Mediterranean Sea: 1 ship, 1 cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 16 cruise missiles.
• As a result of a drone strike on the Dzhankoi airfield in the occupied Crimea, the enemy lost 2 launchers of the S-300 air defense system.
• The enemy is installing metal towers on Tuzla Island near the Kerch Strait Bridge for the Pantsir combat modules.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

• Units of the 51st Airborne Regiment of the 106th Airborne Division operate near Liubimovka. 
• The 55th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 41st Combined Arms Army is active on the Pokrovsk direction. The 9th, 1st, 5th, and 110th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 51st Combined Arms Army are advancing towards the Vovcha River southeast of Pokrovsk from the north.  The 15th and 30th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 2nd Combined Arms Army operate near Novohrodivka, while elements of the 27th Motorized Rifle Division of the 2nd Combined Arms Army and the 1st and 114th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 51st Combined Arms Army are engaged on the Hirnyk–Kurakhove line.

Possible operation situation developments:

• The enemy will soon reach the left bank of the Oskil River in the Hlushkivka-Kruhlyakivka sector and split the “Khortytsia” OSG bridgehead on the Oskil River into two parts: a smaller northern (Kupyansk) and a larger southern (Borova) section.
• Ukrainian Defense Forces are expected to leave Toretsk, Selydove, and Vuhledar in the short term.
• Securing a breakthrough toward Kurakhove remains the primary objective for the enemy’s “Yug (South)” Operational Grouping, particularly its 20th and 150th Motorized Rifle Divisions of the 8th Combined Arms Army. However, they lack the reserves necessary to achieve this.
• By the end of this year, the enemy will not only fail to occupy Donetsk Oblast within its administrative borders but also will be unable to seize the “fortress belt” of Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka-Kramatorsk-Slovyansk. The upcoming battle for Pokrovsk will be the climax of the enemy’s offensive operation in the Southwestern Theater of Operations in 2024.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 24.09.24  

Personnel – almost 645,150 (+1,400); 

Tanks 8,800 (+16);

Armored combat vehicles – 17,292 (+40); 

Artillery systems – 18,475 (+61);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,198 (+1);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 952 (+3);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 25,175 (+73);

Aircraft – 369 (0);

Helicopters – 328 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 15,764 (+65);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,595 (0);

Boats/ships – 29 (0).

Humanitarian + general:

• On the night of September 24, Russian forces attacked Ukraine with an “Iskander-M” ballistic missile, two guided Kh-59/69 missiles, and another missile of an unidentified type. Additionally, Russia launched 81 “Shahed” attack drones, 66 of which were shot down. Due to active countermeasures by Ukrainian Defense Forces, 13 enemy drones were lost in several regions of Ukraine.
• On September 23, between 10:30 PM and 11:00 PM, the Russian army launched another series of strikes on the city of Zaporizhzhia and the Zaporizhzhia district. The strikes hit civilian infrastructure. One man was killed, and six others, including a 13-year-old girl and a 15-year-old boy, were injured.
• In Zaporizhzhia, which has been under attack by the Russian army for two consecutive days, the aftermath of the strikes is still being dealt with. In the city, 74 apartment buildings and 24 private homes have been damaged.
• In the Poltava Oblast, fragments of downed Russian drones damaged energy infrastructure, leaving 20 settlements without power.
• Throughout the day, the authorities in Kherson Oblast reported at least six attacks on civilians, during which explosives were dropped from drones. At least two people were killed, and five were injured, though these numbers are not final.
• On the morning of September 24, Russian military dropped two guided bombs on the city of Kostyantynivka in Donetsk Oblast, killing one person and injuring two others.
• In Kharkiv, after 3:20 PM on Tuesday, September 24, three series of explosions were heard. The strikes hit four districts, including Saltivka, with guided bombs. Three people were killed, and 31 others were injured. In the hardest-hit section of a Kharkiv apartment building, 82 people lived, and they are currently being searched for.
• In Kherson Oblast, on September 23, Russian strikes wounded 13 people. Twenty-three towns and villages came under Russian shelling and airstrikes. The Russian forces targeted residential areas, including three apartment buildings and 16 private houses. Gas pipelines, an ambulance, and private vehicles were damaged.
• On September 23, Russian invaders killed two residents of Donetsk Oblast and injured 18 others.
• A 16-year-old boy and an 18-year-old girl, who had been deprived of parental care, were returned from temporarily occupied Kherson Oblast to Ukrainian-controlled territory.

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