Центр оборонних стратегій

Russia’s war on Ukraine. 26.09.24

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational Group of Forces (OTG) “Kharkiv” on the Kharkiv direction, the enemy launched 3 attacks in the areas of Vovchansk and Tykhe.

In the “Khortytsia” Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) operational zone on the Kupyansk direction, there were 10 enemy assaults near Petropavlivka, Synkivka, Kolisnykivka, Hlushkivka, Stelmakhivka, and toward Lozova. On the Lyman direction, the enemy attacked 21 times, attempting to advance near seven different villages, with a focus on the areas of Hrekivka and Novolyubivka. On the Kramatorsk direction, the occupiers launched 8 attacks near Hryhorivka, Chasiv Yar, and Klishchiivka. On the Toretsk direction, supported by aviation, the enemy made 10 assaults near Toretsk, Shcherbynivka, and Nelipivka.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zoneon the Pokrovsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 54 attacks near Novotoretske, Lisivka, Novohrodivka, Hrodivka, Kostyantynivka, and Selydove. Nearly half of the enemy’s attacks occurred near Selydove. On the Kurakhove direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 25 assaults near Tsukuryne, Hirnyk, Maksymilianivka, and Heorhiivka. On the Vremivka direction, the enemy carried out 8 assaults near Vuhledar and Vodyane. On the Orikhiv direction, the occupiers attempted to advance 5 times near Robotyne and Novoandriivka.

In the operational zone of “Odesa” OSG on the Prydniprovskiy direction, Russian invaders launched 2 attacks but faced a fierce response, suffering losses.

On the Volyn and Polissya directions, there are no signs of enemy offensive group formations.

On the border with Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts, the enemy, operating from Russian territory, actively uses guided aerial bombs and strike UAVs on Ukrainian villages and conducts artillery shelling.

General conclusion:

  • The enemy is preparing for a further offensive on Myrnohrad.
  • The enemy is attempting to tactically encircle Ukrainian Defense Forces units near the pond between Krasnohorivka and Heorhiivka.
  • Russian forces have ceased direct assaults on Vuhledar and are instead conducting simultaneous offensive operations on the flanks of Vuhledar from Pavlivka, Prechystivka, and Vodiane. Some units of the Ukrainian garrison in Vuhledar have begun withdrawing from their positions on the city’s outskirts.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

  • There were 189 combat engagements on various fronts.
  • On the Kursk Direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces continued their offensive in the Glushkovo district.
  • Russian forces repelled Ukrainian attacks near Novyi Put and Vesioloe. Fighting continued near Krasnooktyabrskoe, Liubimovka, Daryino, Nikolaevo-Daryino, Olgovka, Plekhovo.
  • On the Kharkiv direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces regained control over positions at the Vovchansk Aggregate Producing Plant, advanced in Tykhe along Shchorsa and Sverdlova streets, and counterattacked near Hlyboke and Lyptsi.
  • The enemy counterattacked near Vovchansk and Tykhe.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces advanced west along highway O130505 northwest of Makiivka and west in the center of Nevske, attacking near Synkivka, Kruhlyakivka, Pishchane, Hlushkivka, Lozova, Stelmakhivka, Andriivka.
  • On the Lyman direction, the enemy attacked near Makiivka, Novosadove, Cherneshchyna, Druzhelyubivka, Nevske, Zarichne, Terny, Hrekivka, Torske.
  • On the Siversk Direction, Russian forces continued local attacks in the areas of Bilohorivka and Verkhnyokamianske but made no progress.
  • On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces continued their offensive in the area of Chasiv Yar but did not advance. The enemy attacked northwest of Klishchiivka, towards Stupochky, near Kalynivka, Hryhorivka, Minkivka, and Bila Hora.
  • On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces advanced along Vola Street in the northwestern part of Pivnichne, engaged in battles on Lisna Street in Toretsk, and attacked near Toretsk, New York, Nelipivka, Shcherbynivka.
  • On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces made slight progress southeast of Pokrovsk, north of Tsukuryne, south of Selydove, east of Zhelanne Druhe, near Nevelske and Ukrainsk.
  • The enemy is pushing Ukrainian Defense Forces units out of the Nevelske-Zhelanne Pershe-Zhelanne Druhe pocket, captured Mykolaivka, and continued their offensive in the areas of Zelene Pole, Novotoretske, Vozdvyzhenka, Krasnyi Yar, Lisivka, Novohrodivka, Marynivka, and Hirnyk. They destroyed two of the three bridges in Pokrovsk and are shelling roads leading out of the city.
  • On the Kurakhove direction, the 5th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 51st Combined Arms Army captured Hostre with fire support from the 238th Artillery Brigade of the 8th Combined Arms Army. Russian forces advanced further west of Hostre, near Krasnohorivka, and continued attacks in the areas of Katerynivka, Heorhiivka, and Dalnie.
  • On the Vremivka direction, Russian forces advanced in and around Vuhledar, north of Prechystivka.
  • On the Orikhiv direction, positional battles continued near Novoandriivka and Kamianske.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
    • Black Sea: 1 ship, including 0 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 0 cruise missiles.
    • Mediterranean Sea: 1 ship, 1 cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 16 cruise missiles.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

  • The 144th Motorized Rifle Division of the 20th Combined Arms Army is operating near Nevske. 
  • The 39th Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear Protection Regiment of the 8th Combined Arms Army is engaged on the Siversk direction. 
  • The 430th Motorized Rifle Regiment is operating south of Vuhledar. The 36th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 29th Combined Arms Army, the 14th Separate SOF Brigade, and the 3rd Battalion of the 57th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 6th Combined Arms Army are operating east of Vuhledar.

Possible operation situation developments:

  • The “Tavriya” OSG’s 72nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade is expected retreat in the northwest direction in the coming days to avoid encirclement.
  • The enemy’s military command in the theater of operations will concentrate efforts on maximizing their advance towards Pokrovsk-Pavlohrad, in the direction of the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration, and aiming to reach the junction of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Donetsk Oblasts near the village of Temyrivka. This would create the necessary conditions to achieve the military-political goal of the Special Military Operation: reaching the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts.
  • The enemy’s military command in the Azov Sea region will aim to hold the left bank of the Dnipro River both in its delta and directly on the Zaporizhzhia direction, while simultaneously attempting to create operational conditions in the operational zones of the “Vostok (East)” and “Yug (South)” Operational Groupings. This would fully prevent “Tavriya” OSG from launching any offensive operations towards Berdiansk and Mariupol.
  • The enemy will soon reach the left bank of the Oskil River in the Hlushkivka-Kruhlyakivka sector and split the “Khortytsia” OSG bridgehead on the Oskil River into two parts: a smaller northern (Kupyansk) and a larger southern (Borova) section.
  • Ukrainian Defense Forces are expected to leave Toretsk, Selydove, and Vuhledar in the short term.
  • Securing a breakthrough toward Kurakhove remains the primary objective for the enemy’s “Yug (South)” Operational Grouping, particularly its 20th and 150th Motorized Rifle Divisions of the 8th Combined Arms Army. However, they lack the reserves necessary to achieve this.
  • By the end of this year, the enemy will not only fail to occupy Donetsk Oblast within its administrative borders but also will be unable to seize the “fortress belt” of Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka-Kramatorsk-Slovyansk. The upcoming battle for Pokrovsk will be the climax of the enemy’s offensive operation in the Southwestern Theater of Operations in 2024.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 26.09.24  

Personnel – almost 647,800 (+1,400); 

Tanks 8,825 (+10);

Armored combat vehicles – 17,348 (+44); 

Artillery systems – 18,620 (+71);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,199 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 959 (+7);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 25,353 (+105);

Aircraft – 369 (0);

Helicopters – 328 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 15,946 (+67);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,599 (+4);

Boats/ships – 29 (0).

Humanitarian + general:

  • On the night of September 26, Russian forces launched 78 kamikaze drones and 6 missiles at Ukraine. Air defense shot down 66 UAVs and 4 enemy missiles. Eight enemy drones were lost in various regions of Ukraine, and one returned to Russia.
  • During the night, the enemy launched another massive attack on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, using drones and missiles. Three power transmission facilities were targeted, one of them in Mykolaiv Oblast. Despite this, no power outages are planned, according to Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal.
  • Air defense forces tracked more than a dozen drones heading towards Kyiv, with combat operations against them lasting 5 hours. Ten drones were successfully destroyed. Debris from a Russian “Shahed” drone caused a fire on the first floor of a residential building in Kyiv’s Pechersk district. Around 20 cars were damaged, and debris fell on the grounds of a kindergarten.
  • In Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast, a critical infrastructure facility was damaged during a Russian drone attack, leaving part of the regional center without electricity. No injuries were reported.
  • During the night of September 26, Russian occupiers attacked an energy facility in Mykolaiv Oblast, causing power outages for some residents.
  • One person was killed, and houses and cars were damaged following a Russian night strike on Odesa Oblast.
  • On September 26, 2024, around 1:00 p.m., occupiers attacked a railway station in Khutir-Mykhailivskyi (Druzhba), Shostka district, Sumy Oblast, using FPV drones. Three workers were injured in the attack.
  • In Beryslav, Kherson Oblast, two women, aged 58 and 53, were injured by a Russian drone attack.
  • In Kharkiv, five people were injured by a Russian guided aviation bomb strike on the city’s single family home sector. Two residential buildings and a utility structure were damaged, causing a fire.
  • In Kherson, a 64-year-old man was hospitalized after stepping on a “Lepestok” anti-personnel mine in a park area in the Dnipro district of the city.
  • Currently, 55,000 people are listed in the Joint Register of Missing Persons under Special Circumstances, most of whom are military personnel.

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