Russia’s war on Ukraine. 28.09.24

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational Group of Forces (OTG) “Kharkiv” on the Kharkiv direction, there were 6 enemy attacks near Vovchansk and Tykhe.

In the “Khortytsia” Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) operational zone on the Kupyansk direction, the enemy launched 19 attacks. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled enemy assaults towards Synkivka, Novoselivka, Hlushkivka, Kruhlyakivka, Kucherivka, and Lozova. On the Lyman direction, the enemy attacked 16 times, attempting to advance near six different villages, with a focus on Hrekivka, Makiivka, Nevske, Zarichne, Torske, and Novosadove. On the Kramatorsk direction,the invaders launched 9 attacks in the areas of Hryhorivka, Predtechyne, Chasiv Yar, Bila Hora, and Stupochky. On the Toretsk direction, the enemy carried out 7 attacks near Toretsk, Shcherbynivka, and New York.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone, on the Pokrovsk directionUkrainian Defense Forces halted 47 enemy attacks aimed at Vozdvyzhenka, Novotoretske, Mykolaivka, Hrodivka, Novohrodivka, Lisivka, Krutyi Yar, Dachynske, Marynivka, Selydove, and Novotoretske. The heaviest concentration of enemy attacks occurred near Mykhailivka and Novotoretske. On the Kurakhove direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 28 attacks, with the enemy focusing efforts near Tsukuryne, Heorhiivka, Kostyantynivka, and Katerynivka. On the Vremivka direction, the enemy conducted 13 assaults near Vuhledar, Bohoyavlenka, Vodyane, and Katerynivka, actively using assault and bomber aviation. On the Orikhiv and Hulyaipoledirections, the occupiers faced strong resistance near Novodarivka, Robotyne, and Mali Shcherbaky and failed in all three attacks.

In the operational zone of “Odesa” OSG on the Prydniprovskiy direction, Russian invaders attacked twice but were met with stiff resistance and suffered losses.

On the Volyn and Polissya directions, there were no signs of enemy offensive group formations.

Along the border with Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts, the enemy, from Russian territory, actively uses artillery and aviation to target Ukrainian towns and villages.

General conclusion:

• On the Kupyansk direction, the operationally important goal of the enemy’s “Zapad (West)” Operational Grouping is to push the “Khortytsia” OSG from the eastern bank of the Oskil River, after which they aim to establish a defensive front along the river, allowing them to free up forces for offensives on other fronts. 
• In recent weeks, Russian forces have created a small tactical bulge around Pishchane and are focusing on advancing towards Kolisnykivka and Kruhlyakivka. 
• Pre-prepared defensive positions of the “Khortytsia” OSG and the Siversky Donets–Donbas Canal are slowing down enemy advances near Chasiv Yar and preventing Russian assault groups from crossing the canal. The forests around Chasiv Yar allow Ukrainian units to conceal military equipment, and they maintain an advantage in UAV operations. 
• The Vremivka front, west of Vuhledar, remains a key section of the frontline, where Russian forces attack with armored groups consisting of five to ten vehicles. The assaults occur at intervals of approximately one hour, with three to four attacks per day. 
• The enemy, particularly personnel from the Russian National Guard (Rosgvardiya), uses the territory and facilities of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant as a training base for UAV crews. 
• In the coming days Roskomnadzor may block access to Discord, a partially encrypted communication platform Russian forces use to coordinate combat operations. 

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

• There were 180 combat engagements on various fronts.
• On the Kursk Direction, Russian forces repelled Ukrainian attacks near Vesioloe, Krasnooktyabrskoe, Novyi Put, and Medvezhie. They counterattacked near Novyi Put and advanced near Plekhovo, assaulting “Siversk” OTG positions in the areas of Liubimovka, Daryino, Nikolaevo-Daryino, and Plekhovo. The 56th Air Assault Regiment of the 7th Air Assault Division is defending in the Glushkovo district.
• “Siversk” OTG forces attacked near Liubimovka and Plekhovo. Fighting continues in the wooded areas between Plekhovo and Borki, where dense minefields are slowing down the Russian advance.
• On the Kharkiv direction, Russian forces made slight advances northwest of Zelene. They dig tunnels and underground passages between houses in Vovchansk to conceal troop movements and have transitioned to defense on certain sections while preparing for future offensives. The occupiers continued to advance near Hlyboke, Starytsya, Vovchansk, and Tykhe.
• On the Kupyansk direction, “Khortytsia” OSG units repelled an enemy attack near Pishchane, advanced toward Kolisnykivka and Kruhlyakivka, pushing the enemy back to their starting positions.
• On the Lyman direction, “Khortytsia” OSG units actively counterattack near Nevske and are more flexible in countering the enemy’s tactical initiatives in this area.
• On the Siversk Direction, Russian forces attacked near Bilohorivka, Verkhnyokamianske, and Spirne but did not make any progress.
• On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces attacked near Hryhorivka, Minkivka, Stupochky, and Bila Hora, continuing their offensive actions near Kalynivka. Small enemy infantry groups are trying to fortify positions in the ruins of the private sector in Chasiv Yar.
• On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces advanced in the eastern part of Toretsk along Darwin, Pushkarenko, and Heroiv Pratsi Streets and in the city center on Ryaboshapka Street. They advanced in the northwestern part of Zalizne and captured the village. The enemy continues its offensive south of Toretsk, near Leonidivka and Shcherbynivka.
• On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces advanced south of Sukhyi Yar, captured the “Novohrodivska No. 1/3” mine west of Novohrodivka, as well as Marynivka. They also advanced in the northern part of Hirnyk and continued offensive actions in the areas of Zelene Pole, Krutyi Yar, Vozdvyzhenka, Novotoretske, Hrodivka, Dachne, Novohrodivka, Selydove, Mykolaivka, Lisivka, Marynivka, Krasnyi Yar, Tsukuryne, and Zhelanne Druhe. A deep reconnaissance company from the reconnaissance battalion of the 35th Separate Motoried Rifle Brigade of the 41st Combined Arms Army is mining Ukrainian rear routes near Mykolaivka.
• On the Kurakhove direction, Russian forces continued their offensive near Heorhiivka but failed.
• On the Vremivka direction, Russian forces, with armored vehicle support, attempted to advance on the eastern outskirts of Vuhledar, west of the city, and northwest of the “Pivdennodonbaska No. 3” mine. They continued offensive actions near Paraskoviivka, Kostyantynivka, Katerynivka, towards Bohoyavlenka, and near Vodyane.
• On the Orikhiv direction, Russian forces attacked near Novodarivka but made no progress. Positional battles continued near Novoandriivka, Maly Shcherbaky, and Robotyne.
• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
  • Black Sea: 3 ships, including 2 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 8 cruise missiles.
  • Mediterranean Sea: 1 ship, 1 cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 16 cruise missiles.
• Russian forces construct new defensive structures along the beach near Andriivka-Uhlove, north of Sevastopol.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

• The 380th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 47th Tank Division of the 1st Tank Army is operating near Lukyantsi, while the 136th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 58th Combined Arms Army is active in Vovchansk.
• UAV units of the 14th Separate SOF Brigade are active in Vuhledar.
• The “Valkyrie” UAV detachment of the 4th Military Base of the 58th Combined Arms Army is operating near Kamianske.

Possible operation situation developments:

• The enemy will soon reach the left bank of the Oskil River in the Hlushkivka-Kruhlyakivka sector and split the “Khortytsia” OSG bridgehead on the Oskil River into two parts: a smaller northern (Kupyansk) and a larger southern (Borova) section.
• The command of the enemy’s “Zapad (West)” Operational Grouping is focusing on advancing along the ravine east of Pishchane and through the fields to the south and north of the village, aiming to break through to Kolisnykivka and Kruhlyakivka. Their objective is to secure positions and establish a foothold on the Oskil River.
• The “Tavriya” OSG’s 72nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade is expected retreat in the northwest direction in the coming days to avoid encirclement.
• Ukrainian Defense Forces are expected to leave Toretsk, Selydove, and Vuhledar in the short term.
• The enemy’s military command in the theater of operations will concentrate efforts on maximizing their advance towards Pokrovsk-Pavlohrad, in the direction of the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration, and aiming to reach the junction of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Donetsk Oblasts near the village of Temyrivka. This would create the necessary conditions to achieve the military-political goal of the Special Military Operation: reaching the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts.
• The enemy’s military command in the Azov Sea region will aim to hold the left bank of the Dnipro River both in its delta and directly on the Zaporizhzhia direction, while simultaneously attempting to create operational conditions in the operational zones of the “Vostok (East)” and “Yug (South)” Operational Groupings. This would fully prevent “Tavriya” OSG from launching any offensive operations towards Berdiansk and Mariupol.
• By the end of this year, the enemy will not only fail to occupy Donetsk Oblast within its administrative borders but also will be unable to seize the “fortress belt” of Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka-Kramatorsk-Slovyansk. The upcoming battle for Pokrovsk will be the climax of the enemy’s offensive operation in the Southwestern Theater of Operations in 2024.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 28.09.24  

Personnel – almost 650,640 (+1,470); 

Tanks 8,860 (+14);

Armored combat vehicles – 17,438 (+42); 

Artillery systems – 18,733 (+55);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,203 (+4);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 961 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 25,411 (0);

Aircraft – 369 (0);

Helicopters – 328 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 16,093 (+62);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,610 (+2);

Boats/ships – 29 (0).

Humanitarian + general:

• On the night of September 28, two guided air-launched missiles (Kh-59/69) and 69 enemy “Shahed” attack drones were shot down by Ukrainian Air Defense. One drone flew towards Russia, and three others were lost over Ukrainian territory. In total, Russia launched two Iskander-M ballistic missiles, two guided air-launched missiles (Kh-59/69), and 73 “Shahed” attack drones against Ukraine. 
• In Poltava Oblast, debris from downed drones damaged energy infrastructure overnight. In Cherkasy Oblast, air defense forces shot down nine enemy drones, with debris damaging a power transmission line. 
• On the morning of September 28, Russians carried out three airstrikes on the city of Sumy using “Shahed” drones. Two hospitals and nearby apartment buildings were hit, resulting in the deaths of 10 people, including a police officer who had arrived to help, and 22 people were injured. 
• On September 28, 2024, at 10:20 AM, the enemy shelled the village of Yaseneve in Pokrovsk Raion. A store was hit, killing a 28-year-old shopkeeper and a man. A 41-year-old man also sustained shrapnel injuries. 
• As a result of an airstrike on Slatyne in Kharkiv Oblast, three people were killed and at least six others were injured. One woman is in critical condition. The enemy struck civilian infrastructure, damaging an educational institution and shops. People were outside at the time of the attack. 
• On Saturday afternoon, in Kozacha Lopan, Kharkiv Oblast, an enemy drone hit a car, killing a Supreme Court judge and injuring three women. The judge had been delivering humanitarian aid to local residents. 
• In Kherson Oblast on September 28, nine civilians were injured, and two people were killed due to Russian shelling and the dropping of explosives from drones throughout the day. 
• In temporarily occupied Melitopol, the occupiers have started implementing a Kremlin program to militarize Ukrainian children called “I Serve the Fatherland.” Russian army militants are actively involved in this effort. Specifically, the head of the regional “SVO” association, Oleksandr Ostapenko, along with local collaborators, is establishing specialized classroom-barracks for high school students in local schools.

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