Центр оборонних стратегій

Russia’s war on Ukraine. 01.10.24

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational Group of Forces (OTG) “Kharkiv” on the Kharkiv direction, the enemy attempted to storm Ukrainian positions 16 times in the areas of Buhruvatka, Starytsya, Tykhe, and Vovchansk but failed.

In the “Khortytsia” Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) operational zone on the Kupyansk direction, there were 24 enemy attacks. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled the enemy’s assaults near Synkivka, Novoosynove, Hlushkivka, Stelmakhivka, Andriivka, Kruhlyakivka, and Vyshneve. On the Lyman direction, the enemy attacked 24 times, trying to advance towards Hrekivka, Makiivka, Nevske, Novosadove, Dibrova, Serebryanka, Hryhorivka, and in the Serebriansk forest. The enemy’s aviation struck the Serebriansk forest with more than 60 unguided rockets. On the Siversk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 3 Russian assaults near Verkhnyokamianske and Bilohorivka. On the Kramatorsk direction, the occupiers attacked three times near Chasiv Yar, but all attacks were stopped. On the Toretsk direction, the enemy carried out 18 attacks near Toretsk, Zalizne, Nelipivka, and Shcherbynivka, suffering losses and retreating.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zoneon the Pokrovsk direction the situation remains most tense. Ukrainian Defense Forces stopped 43 attacks towards Novotoretske, Novohrodivka, Lisivka, Myrolyubivka, Vozdvyzhenka, Sukha Balka, Mykolaivka, Selydove, and Mykhailivka. The largest concentration of enemy attacks occurred near Selydove, where Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled more than 20 attacks.  On the Kurakhove direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 31 attacks near Heorhiivka, Kostyantynivka, Kurakhove, Tsukuryne, and Katerynivka. The occupiers most actively attempted to advance in the areas of Kurakhove and Heorhiivka. On the Vremivka direction, the enemy carried out 8 assaults near Vuhledar, Bohoyavlenka, and Zolota Nyva, actively deploying assault and bomber aircraft. On the Orikhiv direction, the occupiers attacked near Mala Tokmachka, receiving a tough response and suffering losses.

In the operational zone of “Odesa” OSG on the Prydniprovskiy direction, Russian forces did not conduct any assault actions.

On the Volyn and Polissya directions, no signs of enemy offensive group formations were detected.

On the border with Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts, the enemy, from Russian territory, is actively using artillery and aviation to target Ukrainian villages.

The operation in Kursk Oblast is ongoing.

General conclusion:

  • Russian forces are attacking Vuhledar from three directions – from Pavlivka in the south, from Prechystivka in the southwest, and from Vodyane in the northeast, attempting to encircle Vuhledar from the flanks and attacking the eastern outskirts of the city. The situation in the city is dire. 
  • Preparations for the mass deployment of the 3rd and 24th Separate SOF Brigades on the Pokrovsk direction indicate the importance of this area for the “Tsentr (Center)” Operational Grouping. 
  • The transfer of the Toretsk direction to the 51st Combined Arms Army and the presence of the 3rd Combined Arms Army on its flank suggests the enemy command’s intention to unite them into a separate military grouping for further operations there and to free up the “Tsentr (Center)” Operational Grouping to advance on the Pokrovsk direction. Additionally, the 8th Combined Arms Army’s operational command will no longer manage the 3rd and 51st Combined Arms Armies, simplifying the enemy’s command structure. 
  • To strengthen efforts and improve the coordination and control of forces, a regrouping of the “Yug (South)” Operational Grouping, which is conducting offensive operations in the Kurakhove and Vuhledar directions, should be expected. 
  • The command of the 1st Tank Army and the “Zapad (West)” Operational Grouping have already committed nearly all of their combat-capable forces and resources into the operation, leaving only mobilization reinforcement units in reserve, where assault detachments are being formed for front-line forces. 
  • The 51st Combined Arms Army is fully engaged in assaults on Toretsk and Nelypivka and has no combat-ready reserves in its operational structure. 

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

  • There were 189 combat engagements on various fronts.
  • On the Kursk Direction the 56th Air Assault Regiment of the 7th Air Assault Division advanced in the fields southeast of Vesioloe and shelled “Siversk” OTG units southeast of Korenevo. Russian forces repelled “Siversk” OTG attacks near Liubimovka, Olgovka, Kremyanoe, Kamyshovka, and Plekhovo, and they are attempting to capture Obukhovka and advance near Uspenovka.
  • Ukrainian Defense Forces attacked near Novyi Put, Vesioloe, and Medvezhie, advancing near Korenevo. They repelled enemy attacks south of Plekhovo, inflicting significant losses on the “Pyatnashka” unit, which got lost in Russian anti-tank traps and halted.
  • On the Kharkiv direction, Russian forces made slight advances in the northern part of the Vovchansk Aggregate Producing Plant, attacked near Buhruvatka, Starytsya, and Vovchansk, and are defending the Lyptsi–Hlyboke–Krasne line while continuing to fortify positions and conduct aerial reconnaissance. The 3rd Battalion of the 7th Separate Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 11th Army Corps is laying an anti-tank minefield near Krasne. The enemy is building tunnels and underground routes in urban areas of Vovchansk. Although troop rotations are ongoing, there is no observed increase in troop numbers.
  • On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces captured Andriivka, advanced south of Stepova Novosilka, and conducted offensive operations near Synkivka, Kucherivka, Novoosynove, Hlushkivka, Kruhlyakivka, Stelmakhivka, Lozova, and near Vyshneve and Zarichne.
  • On the Lyman direction, Russian forces advanced in the southern part of Makiivka, near Nevske, and attacked near Hrekivka, Makiivka, Novosadove, Dibrova, in the Serebriansk Forest area, Serebryanka, and Hryhorivka.
  • On the Siversk Direction, Russian forces launched unsuccessful attacks near Bilohorivka and Verkhnyokamianske
  • On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces advanced northeast of Chasiv Yar along the E40 Bakhmut–Sloviansk highway near Zaliznyanske. Fighting continued on the eastern outskirts of Chasiv Yar and near Bila Hora.
  • On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces made minor gains along Haidar Street in the western part of Druzhba and are attempting to capture Nelipivka. Fighting continues in the eastern and southeastern parts of Toretsk, including towards the “Zabalka” neighborhood, in the forest areas southwest of Toretsk towards Shcherbynivka. The enemy is advancing towards Panteleimonivka and Sukha Balka, striking near Toretsk, Zalizne, Nelipivka, and in the direction of Shcherbynivka.
  • On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces are attempting to bypass Selydove to the north and south, recently advancing on both flanks along the M04 Donetsk–Pokrovsk highway, reaching the railway line south of Selydove. The enemy is attempting to encircle Selydove and capture Krasnyi Yar, Krutyi Yar, and is moving towards Mykolaivka.
  • Fighting continued near Vozdvyzhenka, Myrolyubivka, Novotoretske, Zelene Pole, Lisivka, Mykolaivka, Mykhailivka, Selydove, Krutyi Yar, Tsukuryne, and Zhuravka.
  • To create favorable conditions for the further advance of forward units of the 2nd and 41st Combined Arms Armies, the command of the “Tsentr (Center)” Operational Grouping plans to actively use agent-combat groups from the 3rd and 24th Separate SOF Brigades, as well as the 907th Separate Reconnaissance Battalion, which were infiltrated in advance behind the Ukrainian Defense Forces’ lines. The primary tasks of these groups include conducting sabotage actions in the tactical and operational-tactical rear of the “Tavriya” OSG to disrupt command systems, logistical support, hinder maneuvering on selected directions, and capture and hold key positions, objects, terrain, bridges, and overpasses. The enemy is expected to deploy raiding groups and detachments using light, fast transport.
  • On the Kurakhove direction, Russian forces attacked near Heorhiivka, Hostre, and Oleksandropil, damaging a bridge over the Kurakhove reservoir with a missile strike.
  • On the Vremivka direction, Russian forces advanced towards the tree line south of Maksymilianivka, south of Katerynivka, and are attempting to break Ukrainian positions along the Solonenka ravine south of Katerynivka. They continued attacks near Yelyzavetivka, Vodyane, north of Pavlivka along the Kashlahach River, near Vuhledar, and towards Bohoyavlenka. Units of the 403rd Motorized Rifle Regiment advanced on the western outskirts of Vuhledar.
  • On the Orikhiv direction, Russian forces attacked near Novodanylivka, but there were no changes in the front line.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
    • Black Sea: 1 ship, including 1 cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 4 cruise missiles.
    • Mediterranean Sea: 1 ship, 1 cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 16 cruise missiles.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

  • Units of the 375th Separated Anti Tank Battalion of the 47th Tank Division of the 1st Tank Army are active on the Kupyansk direction. Units of the 144th Motorized Rifle Division of the 20th Combined Arms Army operate near Nevske.
  • Units of the 98th Airborne Division of the Russian Airborne Forces and the Sever-V Reconnaissance and Assault Brigade from the Volunteer Assault Corps are engaged in combat near Chasiv Yar.
  • Units of the 15th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Combined Arms Army are involved north of Selydove.
  • The 2nd Motorized Rifle Battalion of the 39th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 68th Army Corps is active near Katerynivka. Combat operations near the “Pivdennodonbaska No. 3” mine are conducted by the 57th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 5th Combined Arms Army.
  • Forces of the 29th Combined Arms Army, the 5th Separate Tank Brigade of the 36th Combined Arms Army, and the 14th Separate SOF Brigade continue operations in and around Vuhledar.
  • The enemy’s “Yug (South)” Operational Grouping consists of the 8th (including the 20th and 150th Motorized Rifle Divisions), the 29th (including the 36th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade) Combined Arms Army, the 68th Army Corps (with the 39th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade and a tactical group from the 18th Machine Gun – Artillery Division), the 40th Separate Marines Brigade of the Pacific Fleet, and certain elements from the 155th Separate Marines Brigade. Temporarily engaged are units from the 90th Tank Division (until the capture of Selydove and the breakthrough towards Kurakhove).
  • The state of the first-echelon operational reserves of the “Zapad (West)” Operational Grouping on the Kupyansk direction (24-hour readiness): the 371st Motorized Rifle Regiment, a motorized rifle battalion of the 153rd Tank Regiment of the 47th Tank Division, the 92nd Reserve Battalion, the 1844th Separate Motorized Rifle Battalion, a battalion from the 4th Tank Division, and the 1767th Separate Motorized Rifle Battalion of the 1st Tank Army. The estimated size of the reserves of the enemy’s “Zapad (West)” Operational Grouping is 3,000 personnel, a tank company (5-7 tanks), up to 30 infantry fighting vehicles, 24 guns, and mortars.
  • Reserves of the 51st Combined Arms Army on the Toretsk direction include the Motorized Rifle Battalion of the 132nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (up to 300 personnel, 3 infantry fighting vehicles, and 3 guns).

Possible operation situation developments:

  • The leadership of the counter-terrorist operation in Kursk Oblast will attempt to establish a decisive advantage in forces and assets on thus direction, achieve operational and tactical surprise, and launch a simultaneous offensive on designated sectors (most likely targeting the flanks of the Ukrainian Defense Forces’ “Sudzha” tactical group). The goal is rapid advancement to pre-determined lines and areas, which, if reached, would pose a real threat of encircling and defeating the “Siversk” OTG within Kursk Oblast.
  • The enemy will soon reach the left bank of the Oskil River in the Hlushkivka-Kruhlyakivka sector and split the “Khortytsia” OSG bridgehead on the Oskil River into two parts: a smaller northern (Kupyansk) and a larger southern (Borova) section.
  • The command of the enemy’s “Zapad (West)” Operational Grouping is focusing on advancing along the ravine east of Pishchane and through the fields to the south and north of the village, aiming to break through to Kolisnykivka and Kruhlyakivka. Their objective is to secure positions and establish a foothold on the Oskil River.
  • The “Tavriya” OSG’s 72nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade is expected retreat in the northwest direction in the coming days to avoid encirclement.
  • Ukrainian Defense Forces are expected to leave Toretsk, Selydove, and Vuhledar in the short term.
  • Securing a breakthrough toward Kurakhove remains the primary objective for the enemy’s “Yug (South)” Operational Grouping, particularly its 20th and 150th Motorized Rifle Divisions of the 8th Combined Arms Army. However, they lack the reserves necessary to achieve this.
  • The enemy’s military command in the theater of operations will concentrate efforts on maximizing their advance towards Pokrovsk-Pavlohrad, in the direction of the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration, and aiming to reach the junction of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Donetsk Oblasts near the village of Temyrivka. This would create the necessary conditions to achieve the military-political goal of the Special Military Operation: reaching the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts.
  • he enemy’s military command in the Azov Sea region will aim to hold the left bank of the Dnipro River both in its delta and directly on the Zaporizhzhia direction, while simultaneously attempting to create operational conditions in the operational zones of the “Vostok (East)” and “Yug (South)” Operational Groupings. This would fully prevent “Tavriya” OSG from launching any offensive operations towards Berdiansk and Mariupol.
  • By the end of this year, the enemy will not only fail to occupy Donetsk Oblast within its administrative borders but also will be unable to seize the “fortress belt” of Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka-Kramatorsk-Slovyansk. The upcoming battle for Pokrovsk will be the climax of the enemy’s offensive operation in the Southwestern Theater of Operations in 2024. October and partially November become the moment of maximum tension for both sides in the entire 2024 campaign.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 01.10.24  

Personnel – almost 654,430 (+1,370); 

Tanks 8,883 (+9);

Armored combat vehicles – 17,547 (+44); 

Artillery systems – 18,855 (+33);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,204 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 963 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 25,621 (+73);

Aircraft – 369 (0);

Helicopters – 328 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 16,322 (+98);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,613 (+3);

Boats/ships – 29 (0).

Humanitarian + general:

  • During the night of October 1, Russian forces attacked Ukrainian regions with 32 Shahed-type strike drones, of which 29 were shot down by air defense systems. Due to electronic warfare, three enemy drones were lost without causing any damage.
  • On the afternoon of October 1, Russian occupying forces carried out six air bomb strikes on Zaporizhzhia. 32 people were injured, and one person died.
  • Around 9:00 a.m. on October 1, Russian artillery struck a public transport stop and a market in Kherson. The attack killed six people and wounded another six.
  • At about 9:00 a.m. on October 1, the occupiers dropped four guided bombs on civilian infrastructure in the Esman community, Shostka District, Sumy Oblast. One person was killed, and two others were injured.
  • At approximately 5:40 p.m. on October 1, Russian forces shelled the city of Kupyansk. Private and multi-story residential buildings were set on fire. Ambulances near a medical facility were damaged. A 69-year-old woman and an ambulance driver were injured.
  • A video that surfaced online on October 1 shows the Russian army executing 16 Ukrainian prisoners of war near the villages of Mykolaivka and Sukhy Yar in the Pokrovsk District, Donetsk Oblast. This is the largest known execution of Ukrainian POWs on the front lines, according to the Prosecutor General’s Office.
  • In 90 towns and villages across seven territorial communities in Sumy District, a mandatory evacuation of children, along with their parents or guardians, was announced.

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