Russia’s war on Ukraine. 03.10.24

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational Group of Forces (OTG) “Kharkiv” on the Kharkiv direction, Russian forces attempted 2 assaults near the settlements of Vovchansk and Tyche.

In the “Khortytsia” Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) operational zone on the Kupyansk direction, there were 14 enemy attacks. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled assaults near Synkivka, Andriivka, Pishchane, and Stelmakhivka. On the Lyman direction, the enemy attacked 14 times, trying to penetrate Ukrainian defenses near Hrekivka, Nevske, Novosadove, Makiivka, and Torske. On the Kramatorsk direction, occupiers attacked three times in the areas of Ivanivske, Kalynivka, and Bila Hora. On the Toretsk direction, with air support, the enemy conducted 20 attacks near Dyliivka, Toretsk, Nelipivka, and Shcherbynivka, focusing most attacks on Toretsk.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone, on the Pokrovsk direction Ukrainian Defense Forces stopped 29 Russian assaults toward Vozdvyzhenka, Novotoretske, Zelene Pole, Myrolyubivka, Mykolaivka, Krutyi Yar, Krasnyi Yar, Novohrodivka, and Selydove, with the highest concentration near Mykolaivka. On the Kurakhove direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 27 attacks, with the most intense efforts near Kostyantynivka, Kurakhove, and Heorhiivka. Additionally, the enemy attacked toward Tsukuryne, Zhelanne Druhe, and Katerynivka. On the Vremivka direction, Russian forces conducted six assaults near Bohoyavlenka, while on the Orikhiv direction, they attacked toward Kamianske.

No signs of offensive group formation by the enemy were found on the Volyn and Polissya directions. On the border with Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts, the enemy continues using artillery and aviation from Russian territory to target Ukrainian towns and villages.

The operation in Kursk Oblast continues.

General conclusion:

• Russian Armed Forces continue actively attacking on the Vuhledar, Kurakhove, and Pokrovsk directions. 
• The intensity of fighting is gradually increasing around Velyka Novosilka, south of Makarivka, where a grouping of 9-11 thousand troops and up to 150 armored vehicles is concentrated. 

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

• There were 142 combat engagements on various fronts.
• On the Kursk Direction Ukrainian Defense Forces reached the northern outskirts of Vesioloe, bypassing Obukhovka.
• Russian troops repelled Ukrainian assaults near Vesioloe, Novyi Put, Olgovka, Cherkasskoe Porechie, and Plekhovo, and attempted to regain control of Novosiolovka. They also attacked near Liubimovka, Nikolaevo-Daryino, Novosiolovka, and Plekhovo.
• Fighting continued near Obukhovka.
• On the Kharkiv direction, the 41st Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 72nd Motorized Rifle Division (44th Army Corps) captured Starytsya and attempted to secure a part of the forest north of Zelene. Russian forces attacked near Starytsya and within Vovchansk.
• On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces advanced northwest of Novovodyane and continued offensives near Synkivka, Novoosynove, Kurelivka, Stepova Novoselivka, Vyshneve, Kolisnykivka, Hlushkivka, Kruhlyakivka, and Andriivka.
• On the Lyman direction, the 3rd Motorized Rifle Division of the 20th Army advanced toward Rubtsi. The enemy attacked near Hrekivka, Novosadove, Makiivka, Nevske, Torske, and in the Serebriansk Forest.
• On the Siversk Direction, Russian forces made minor advances north of Spirne and attempted to capture Verkhnyokamianske.
• On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces continued offensives near Chasiv Yar, Hryhorivka, toward Mayske, Markove, and near Ivanivske, Andriivka, Klishchiivka, Bila Hora, and toward Stupochky.
• On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces advanced into the center of Toretsk and are attempting to encircle Ukrainian units in the city. They continued assaults near Toretsk, Nelipivka, and toward Shcherbynivka.
• On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces advanced east of Hrodivka, south of Tsukuryne, west of Novotoretske, and captured fields west of Nevelske. They attacked along the M30 highway from Marynivka toward Selydove, near the Selydove City Hospital, and continued offensives around Vozdvyzhenka, Novotoretske, Yelyzavetivka, Myrolyubivka, Mykolaivka, Krasnyi Yar, Krutyi Yar, Lisivka, Novohrodivka, Selydove, Ukrainsk, Tsukuryne, Hirnyk, and Nevelske.
• On the Kurakhove direction, Russian forces continued offensives near Heorhiivka and Kurakhove, advancing within Maksymilianivka.
• On the Vremivka direction, Russian forces captured Vuhledar, advanced along the Pavlivka–Bohoyavlenka road, penetrating 400 meters deep, and entered the forest south of Katerynivka. They are advancing from Vodyane toward Bohoyavlenka, continuing assaults near Kostyantynivka, Katerynivka, and near Bohoyavlenka. The enemy is fortifying positions near Staromayorske.
• On the Orikhiv direction, positional battles continued around Novodanylivka, Mali Shcherbaky, and Kamianske, but the front line remained unchanged.
• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
  • Black Sea: 1 ship, including 1 cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 4 cruise missiles.
  • Mediterranean Sea: 2 ships, 2 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 24 cruise missiles.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

• The 155th Separate Marines Brigade of the Pacific Fleet operates near Opanasivka. 
• The 36th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 29th Combined Arms Army and the 95th Rifle Regiment operate near Vuhledar. 
• The 37th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 36th Combined Arms Army and the 14th Separate SOF Brigade operate near Novodonetske.

Possible operation situation developments:

• The enemy will attempt to reach the left bank of the Oskil River in the Hlushkivka-Kruhlyakivka sector and split the “Khortytsia” OSG bridgehead on the Oskil River into two parts: a smaller northern (Kupyansk) and a larger southern (Borova) section.
• The command of the enemy’s “Zapad (West)” Operational Grouping is focusing on advancing along the ravine east of Pishchane and through the fields to the south and north of the village, aiming to break through to Kolisnykivka and Kruhlyakivka. Their objective is to secure positions and establish a foothold on the Oskil River.
• Ukrainian Defense Forces are expected to leave Toretsk, Selydove, and Vuhledar in the short term.
• Securing a breakthrough toward Kurakhove remains the primary objective for the enemy’s “Yug (South)” Operational Grouping, particularly its 20th and 150th Motorized Rifle Divisions of the 8th Combined Arms Army. However, they lack the reserves necessary to achieve this.
• The enemy’s military command in the theater of operations will concentrate efforts on maximizing their advance towards Pokrovsk-Pavlohrad, in the direction of the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration, and aiming to reach the junction of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Donetsk Oblasts near the village of Temyrivka. This would create the necessary conditions to achieve the military-political goal of the Special Military Operation: reaching the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts. This development is possible within 2-3 months.
• After the capture of Vuhledar, the enemy will advance in two directions: towards Velyka Novosilka from the south, southeast, and east, and towards Kurakhove. If the situation in southeastern Donetsk Oblast does not change, the occupying forces, after seizing Selydove, will begin operations to storm Pokrovsk, Myrnohrad, Kurakhove, and Velyka Novosilka.
• By the end of this year, the enemy will not only fail to occupy Donetsk Oblast within its administrative borders but also will be unable to seize the “fortress belt” of Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka-Kramatorsk-Slovyansk. The upcoming battle for Pokrovsk will be the climax of the enemy’s offensive operation in the Southwestern Theater of Operations in 2024. October and partially November become the moment of maximum tension for both sides in the entire 2024 campaign.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 03.10.24  

Personnel – almost 656,710 (+1,150); 

Tanks 8,893 (+6);

Armored combat vehicles – 17,596 (+17); 

Artillery systems – 18,906 (+37);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,204 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 964 (+1);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 25,750 (+58);

Aircraft – 369 (0);

Helicopters – 328 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 16,393 (+43);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,613 (0);

Boats/ships – 29 (0).

Humanitarian + general:

• During the night of October 3, Ukrainian air defense shot down 78 out of 105 Shahed kamikaze drones launched by Russia over Ukraine. One drone flew towards Belarus, and 23 enemy UAVs were lost at various locations across Ukraine.
• On the night of October 3, Russian forces attacked Poltava, Ivano-Frankivsk, Odesa, and Sumy Oblasts using Shahed drones, with no reported casualties. Dozens of drones targeted Poltava Oblast, where an air raid alarm lasted nearly 12 hours.
• Ukrainian air defense worked throughout the night in Kyiv, where debris from drones damaged a multi-story building in the Desnianskyi district. No fires were reported. Information about potential casualties is still being clarified. Nearly 15 drones were shot down in Kyiv Oblast. The air raid lasted over 5 hours.
• On the morning of October 3, Russian forces struck the outskirts of Kharkiv, damaging high-voltage power lines.
• Overnight, Russian forces shelled the Nikopol district of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, damaging an industrial enterprise and power lines, resulting in a fire. During the day, a Russian kamikaze drone hit Nikopol, injuring three people.
• In a daytime attack on a village in the Koriukivka district of Chernihiv Oblast, three people, including a 6-year-old child, were killed, and four others were injured.
• On the evening of October 2, Russian forces, using two Su-34 aircraft, launched five guided aerial bombs at Kharkiv and its suburbs, injuring at least 12 people, including a child.
• On October 3, a Russian kamikaze drone hit a bus stop in Kupiansk, Kharkiv Oblast, injuring two civilians.
• At least 2 people were injured in Kherson Oblast on October 3 in two different instances of the Russian military targeting civilians with explosives from a UAV.
• Since the start of the full-scale invasion, as of October 1, 2024, 1,041 people, including almost 100 children, have been injured by Russian mines and explosive devices.
• On October 3, emergency power outages were implemented in parts of Kharkiv and Poltava Oblasts due to Russian shelling. Sumy faced mobile network issues due to power supply disruptions.
• The northern part of Donetsk Oblast will remain without water supply for an indefinite period following Russian attacks. On September 28, two key “Voda Donbasu” facilities were critically damaged, making it technically impossible to restore the equipment. Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka, Kostiantynivka, and surrounding areas, home to around 260,000 people, will face water shortages due to the severe shelling.
• In Russian-occupied Crimea, as of September 20, nearly 980 investigations into “discrediting the Russian army” have been recorded. In 875 of these cases, administrative penalties in the form of fines were imposed.

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