Russia’s war on Ukraine. 10.10.24

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational Group of Forces (OTG) “Kharkiv” on the Kharkiv direction, Russian forces conducted 4 offensive actions in the areas of Tykhe and Vovchansk.

In the “Khortytsia” Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) operational zone on the Kupyansk direction, there were 17 combat engagements. Ukrainian forces repelled attacks in the areas of Kucherivka, Petropavlivka, Stepova Novoselivka, Vyshneve, Novoosynove, Zelenyi Hai, and Kruhlyakivka. On the Lyman direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces halted 18 enemy assaults, with Russian forces concentrating efforts near Hrekivka, Andriivka, Makiivka, Nevske, Katerynivka, and Torske. Six more Russian attempts to advance near Minkivka, Chasiv Yar, Oleksandro-Shultyne, Bila Hora, and Stupochky were stopped on the Kramatorsk direction. The situation remains under control. The enemy operated with air support, dropping guided bombs in the Chasiv Yar area. On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces, with bomber aircraft support, made 9 attempts to advance in the areas of Toretsk, Nelipivka, Shcherbynivka, and Dyliivka.

In the “Tavriya” OSG operational zone, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 25 attacks on the Pokrovsk direction. The enemy attempted to advance near Sukha Balka, Novotoretske, Myrolyubivka, Kruty Yar, Promin, Lysivka, and Sukhyi Yar. The enemy’s main focus was around Selydove, where 13 combat engagements occurred. Additionally, the enemy bombed Yablunivka, Kalynove, Vozdvyzhenka, Myrolyubivka, Lysivka, Oleksandro-Kalynove, and Chunyshyne, dropping more than 10 guided bombs. Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold the line on the Kurakhove direction. In the areas of Hirnyk, Novoselydivka, Kurakhivka, Tsukuryne, Hostre, Heorhiivka, Kostyantynivka, Katerynivka, and Antonivka, the occupiers attempted 31 breakthroughs of Ukrainian defensive lines. Five enemy attacks were stopped near Bohoyavlenka on the Vremivka direction. Four unsuccessful attempts to capture positions were made by the enemy on the Prydniprovskyi direction.

The operational situation on the Volyn and Polissya directions remains unchanged, with no signs of enemy assault group formation.

Russian forces maintain their military presence along the Chernihiv Oblast border, conducting reconnaissance and artillery shelling.

On the Kursk direction, Ukrainian forces continue operations, while the enemy launched 11 airstrikes using 22 guided bombs and over 200 artillery attacks.

General conclusion:

• Russian forces have exhausted their stockpile of aerial bombs equipped with Universal Modular Guidance Kits (UMPK) on the Kharkiv direction. Continued Ukrainian strikes on logistics depots, particularly ammunition, will increase operational pressure on Russian groupings in Ukraine. This could force Russian military command to reorganize and disperse logistical infrastructure to enhance its resilience.
• Russian troops have redeployed engineering units to the Kharkiv direction for the construction of underground supply routes.
• Near Vuhledar, the enemy utilizes 122-mm D-74 guns, produced in 1956, likely imported from China, North Korea, Vietnam, or Algeria.
• The 140th repair plant and the 814th repair center of the Belarusian Armed Forces repair tanks and armored personnel carriers damaged in battles in Ukraine for the Russian Armed Forces.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

• There were 149 combat engagements on various fronts.
• On the Kursk Direction, the forces of “Siversk” OTG attacked near Vesioloe and shelled Russian positions near Olgovka, Liubimovka, Plekhovo, Russkoe Porechie, Cherkasskoe Porechie, and Marynivka. The defense forces struck a Russian missile and ammunition depot in Karachev, Bryansk Oblast.
• Russian troops advanced near Novyi Put, attacked near Daryino, Liubimovka, and Plekhovo, and captured Novaya Sorochina and Pokrovskoe. The 106th Airborne Division is engaged in combat for Liubimovka.
• On the Kharkiv direction, Russian forces continued attacks near Vovchansk and Starytsya. The enemy air force increased bombings, delivering 3-4 strikes with guided bombs in this area per week.
• On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces continued offensive operations near Synkivka, Kucherivka, Kruhlyakivka, Novoosynove, Stepova Novoselivka, Lozova, Vyshneve, and Novovodyane.
• On the Lyman direction, Russian forces advanced south along highway O131306, southeast of Makiivka, and continued offensive actions near Novosadove, Makiivka, Nevske, Druzhelyubivka, Hrekivka, Torske, and in the areas of the Serebriansk Forest and Dibrova.
• On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces continued their offensive in the Chasiv Yar area but did not achieve success. The enemy advanced within the “Zhovtnevyi” neghborhood and continued assaults near Minkivka, Kalynivka, Stupochky, Bila Hora, and towards Oleksandro-Shultyne.
• On the Toretsk direction, Russian troops advanced along Heroiv Pratsi Street in the eastern part of Toretsk and along Peremohy and Konstytutsii Streets in the southern part, reaching the eastern outskirts of Toretsk and advancing along Tsentralna Street towards the “Centralna” mine. The enemy attacks in small groups of 3 to 5 people. Special forces operate within Toretsk.
• Russian forces concentrate mechanized units near Toretsk from New York and Nelipivka and continued attacks near Dyliivka, Shcherbynivka, and Sukha Balka.
• On the Pokrovsk direction, “Tavriya” OSG units counterattacked and advanced in the northwestern part of Mykolaivka.
• Russian forces advanced north of Novohrodivka, in the central part of Zhelanne Pershe, west of Novohrodivka, west of Tsukuryne, south of Zhelanne Druhe, and west of Nevelske. They attacked near Novotoretske, Myrolyubivka, Promin, Mykolaivka, Kruty Yar, Sukhyi Yar, Lysivka, Novohrodivka, Mykolaivka, Selydove, Kalynove, Novoselydivka, Tsukuryne, and Hirnyk.
• Russian reconnaissance and sabotage groups clear mines, conduct reconnaissance, and deploy observation posts near Selydove in preparation for a future assault.
• On the Kurakhove direction, Russian forces continued their offensive near Maksymilianivka, Heorhiivka, Hostre, Kurakhivka, and Kurakhove.
• On the Vremivka direction, units of the 5th Separate Tank Brigade of the 36th Army Corps captured Zolota Nyva and fortified their positions in the village. Russian forces advanced directly north of Vuhledar and continued offensive operations near Kostyantynivka, Katerynivka, Antonivka, Vodyane, and Bohoyavlenka.
• On the Orikhiv direction, Russian forces made minor gains on the southwestern outskirts of Kamianske, held positions in Kamianske, and attempted to break through to the center of the village, attacking near Robotyne and towards Novodanylivka.
• On the Prydniprovskyi direction, Russian forces launched unsuccessful attacks. Their units lack sufficient boats to carry out successful assaults on islands in the Dnipro River delta.
• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
  • Black Sea: 2 ships, including 2 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 8 cruise missiles.
  • Mediterranean Sea: 2 ships, 1 cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 4 cruise missiles.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

• The 2nd Motorized Rifle Battalion of the 380th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 47th Tank Division of the 1st Tank Army operate near Lukyantsi.
• The 14th Separate SOF Brigade operates on the Kurakhove direction.
• The 49th Separate Air Assault brigade of the 58th Combined Arms Army is engaged in combat in Kamianske. The 22nd Separate SOF Brigade operates near Kamianske. The 503rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 19th Motorized Rifle Division of the 58th Combined Arms Army is active on the Zaporizhzhia direction.
• The 33rd BARS detachment operates on the Kherson direction.

Possible operation situation developments:

• Ukrainian Defense Forces are expected to leave Toretsk and Selydove in the short term.
• The enemy’s military command in the theater of operations within the following 2-3 months will concentrate its efforts on achieving the military-political goal of the Special Military Operation: reaching the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts. For this purpose, they will maximize their advance towards Pokrovsk-Pavlohrad, in the direction of the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration, and aiming to reach the junction of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Donetsk Oblasts near the village of Temyrivka.
• After seizing Selydove, the occupation forces will begin operations to storm Pokrovsk, Myrnohrad, Kurakhove, and Velyka Novosilka.
• Even if the enemy halts its large-scale offensive on the Pokrovsk direction, it will continue to exert pressure on Ukrainian defenses, thereby preventing the Defense Forces from building up reserves and resources to seize the strategic initiative.
• The command of the enemy’s “Yug (South)” Operational Grouping will likely attempt to build on its success after capturing the city of Vuhledar by advancing to the Kurakhove-Bohoyavlenka line. Securing a breakthrough toward Kurakhove remains the primary objective for the enemy’s “Yug (South)” Operational Grouping, particularly its 20th and 150th Motorized Rifle Divisions of the 8th Combined Arms Army. However, they are unlikely to achieve this without additional reserves.
• By the end of this year, the enemy will not only fail to occupy Donetsk Oblast within its administrative borders but also will be unable to seize the “fortress belt” of Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka-Kramatorsk-Slovyansk. The upcoming battle for Pokrovsk will be the climax of the enemy’s offensive operation in the Southwestern Theater of Operations in 2024. October and partially November become the moment of maximum tension for both sides in the entire 2024 campaign.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 10.10.24  

Personnel – almost 665,200 (+1,080); 

Tanks 8,945 (+1);

Armored combat vehicles – 17,765 (+14); 

Artillery systems – 19,263 (+41);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,225 (+2);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 976 (+3);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 26,314 (+74);

Aircraft – 369 (0);

Helicopters – 328 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 16,767 (+49);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,619 (+1);

Boats/ships – 29 (0).

Humanitarian + general:

• During the night of October 10, Russian forces launched 62 attack drones and 8 missiles at Ukraine. Ukrainian air defenses managed to shoot down 41 drones, while another 14 were likely neutralized by electronic warfare systems. Civilian and critical infrastructure were hit in the Odesa, Poltava, and Donetsk Oblasts.
• A Russian missile strike on Zaporizhzhia in the morning of October 10 injured four people, including a child, and destroyed or damaged 29 homes. Eight households were cut off from gas supplies.
• On the morning of October 10, Russian troops targeted an agricultural facility in the Synelnykove district of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, injuring one person, burning down a wooden warehouse, and damaging machinery and vehicles.
• In Kryvyi Rih, Russian drones damaged a five-story building, injuring two people.
• Around noon on October 10, an explosion occurred in Mykolaiv, a repeat strike at the same location was confirmed. Fortunately, no one was killed, as people had been evacuated in time. Two people were injured in the rocket attack.
• Around 4 p.m. on October 10, Russian forces struck the village of Cherkaska Lozova in the Kharkiv district, injuring five people, including three children aged 2, 5, and 15.
• Late on October 9, Russian forces attacked Mykolaiv, causing a fire at an infrastructure site and damaging warehouses. No casualties were reported.
• In the evening of October 9, Russia launched a missile strike on Odesa’s port infrastructure. As of October 10, reports confirmed that 8 people had been killed and 9 injured. A civilian vessel under the Panamanian flag, the container ship “Shui Spirit”, was damaged. This is the third foreign vessel attacked by Russia in the past four days.

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