Russia’s war on Ukraine. 02.12.24

On the Kursk direction, the “Siversk” OTG units advanced north of Novoivanovka and counterattacked near Pogrebki.

Russian forces attacked near Daryino, Plekhovo, and Martynovka. Enemy sabotage and reconnaissance groups destroyed two bridges on the international border in the area of Tymonovychi and Karpovychi in Chernihiv Oblast.

On the Kharkiv direction, Russian forces conducted 2 unsuccessful assaults. They attacked along the international border near Hoptivka, Kozacha Lopan, Starytsia, Tykhe, and Vovchansk.

On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces advanced within and near Dvorichna, attacking near Novomlynsk, Lozova, Kruhlyakivka, Pishchane, Kolisnykivka, Zahryzove, Zelenyi Hai, Druzhelyubivka, and Novoyehorivka.

On the Lyman direction, Russian forces attacked near Hrekivka, Terny, Torske, Zarichne, and Hryhorivka.

On the Siversk direction, Russian forces attack with small infantry groups. Dense fog hinderі the use of drones.

On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces launched attacks on Chasiv Yar, and near Predtechyne and Stupochky but achieved no success.

On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces attacked Toretsk and areas near Shcherbynivka and Nelipivka but failed to advance.

On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces made minor advances north of Zhovte, with the 15th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Army Corps capturing Petrivka. The enemy controls Zhovte and has advanced toward Novopustynka and Novotroitske. Fighting continued near Myrolyubivka, Myrnohrad, Promin, Lysivka, Krutyi Yar, Novyi Trud, Pustynka, Dachenske, Zhovte, and Pushkyne. The enemy conducts assaults in groups of 20–30 soldiers, repeating attacks in the same size groups 30–40 minutes after the first assault is repelled.

On the Kurakhove direction, Russian forces advanced toward Kurakhove but achieved no significant successes. The enemy moved into the center of Stari Terny and unsuccessfully attacked near Kurakhove, Sontsivka, Zoria, Novodmytrivka, Dachne, Berestky, and Dalnie.

On the Vremivka direction, Russian forces attacked near Veselyi Hai, Romanivka, Yelyzavetivka, Hannivka, Katerynivka, Antonivka, Trudove, Rozlyv, Konstyantynopolske, and Sukhi Yaly. They attempted to advance northeast, north, south, and southwest of Velyka Novosilka, south of Rozdolne, Novyi Komar, near Blahodatne, between Novodarivka and Rivnopil, and attacked near Velyka Novosilka, Novyi Komar, Novosilka, and Novodarivka, aiming to envelop Velyka Novosilka.

On the Orikhiv direction, Russian forces made minor advances on the northern outskirts of Dorozhnyanka.

On the Prydniprovskyi direction, Russian forces continued limited attacks on the eastern bank of Kherson Oblast.

General conclusion:

• Russian forces have increased the number of assaults on Chasiv Yar.
• The enemy is intensifying combat operations on the Toretsk direction.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

• There were 265 combat engagements on various fronts.
• On the Kharkiv direction, the enemy conducted 10 assaults in the areas of Starytsia, Tyke, Vovchansk, and toward Kozacha Lopan.
• On the Kupyansk direction, there were 9 enemy attacks. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled assaults near Lozova, Kruhlyakivka, Hlushkivka, and Zelenyi Hai.
• On the Lyman direction, the enemy attacked 8 times, attempting to advance near Druzhelyubivka, Hrekivka, Hryhorivka, Terny, and Torske.
• On the Kramatorsk direction, 3 clashes were reported in the Chasiv Yar area.
• On the Toretsk direction, the enemy launched 8 attacks near Toretsk and toward Shcherbynivka.
• On the Pokrovsk direction, Ukrainian defenders stopped 33 enemy attacks in the areas of Myrolyubivka, Promin, Lysivka, Dachenske, Zhovte, and Chumatske.
• On the Kurakhove direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 48 assaults on their positions near Berestky, Sontsivka, Zoria, Novodmytrivka, Kurakhove, Dalnie, Yelyzavetivka, and Hannivka.
• On the Vremivka direction, the enemy conducted 24 attacks on Ukrainian positions in the areas of Konstyantynopolske, Trudove, Velyka Novosilka, Novosilka, Novyi Komar, and Novodarivka.
• On the Prydniprovskyi direction, Russian occupiers attempted to assault Defense Forces’ positions 4 times but achieved no success.
• In the operational zone in the Kursk Oblast, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 16 attacks by Russian invaders.
• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
  • Black Sea: 2 ships, including 2 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 0 cruise missiles.
• Near the home port of Tuapse, the landing ship Petr Morgunov of the Northern Fleet of the Russian Navy reportedly came under attack and sustained damage (information under verification).

Possible operation situation developments:

• On the Kupyansk direction, the enemy will try to break through the “Khortytsia” OSG defense near Kruhlyakivka and advance southward toward Bohuslavka and Nova Kruhlyakivka; attack Lozova and move toward Nova Kruhlyakivka; breach the “Khortytsia” OSG defense at Pershotravneve toward Kopanky and Novoserhiyivka, forcing Ukrainian Defense Forces to retreat from positions near Novoyehorivka under the threat of encirclement.
• The enemy activity in the Dvorichna area is likely an attempt to distract attention and draw reserves of the “Khortytsia” OSG’s Kupyansk group to a secondary section ahead of the start of the next phase of the offensive by the 1st Tank Army of the enemy’s “Zapad (West)” Operational Grouping on Kupyansk itself. The enemy is attempting to establish a threatening bridgehead, forcing the “Khortytsia” OSG command to allocate resources to eliminate it. Simultaneously, the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division, 4th and 47th Tank Divisions of the 1st Tank Army may launch an offensive from the east, southeast, and south toward Kupyansk, supported by the 25th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade and the 11th Army Corps from positions in Synkivka.
• On the Kramatorsk direction, if the enemy manages to advance to the Chervone–Stupochky line and simultaneously begins intensive northward attacks at the junction of its 41st and 51st Armies from the Novooleksandrivka–Arkhanhelske line, reaching the Yablunivka–Oleksandro-Kalynove line on the Toretsk direction, then the “Khortytsia” OSG will be forced to withdraw towards Kostyantynivka. The operational situation is deteriorating, and if it develops negatively, with the loss of the refractory materials plant in Chasiv Yar, it will be lost by the end of December.
• The enemy continues advancing westward along the H15 highway toward Andriivka while simultaneously attacking the Defense Forces’ bridgehead northeast of Vuhledar along the Uspenivka–Hannivka–Romanivka line, aiming to force “Tavriya” OSG units to withdraw westward under the threat of encirclement. Such a maneuver could allow Russian forces to seize advantageous tactical positions in this area and align the frontline from Sontsivka to Konstyantynopil, positioning Russian troops approximately 23 km east of the Donetsk–Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border.
• By the end of the current year, the enemy will not succeed in seizing the “belt of fortresses” Kostyantynivka – Druzhkivka – Kramatorsk – Sloviansk or occupying Donetsk Oblast. The upcoming battle for Pokrovsk will mark the apex of the enemy’s offensive operation in the Southwestern Theater of Operations in 2024.
• The expected sequence of enemy actions for capturing Pokrovsk is as follows: first, the 90th Tank Division of the 41st Combined Arms Army and the 27th Motorized Rifle Division of the 2nd Combined Arms Army will break through to the area south of Pokrovsk. Afterward, the main forces of the 2nd and 41st Combined Arms Armies will advance from the direction of Mykolaivka toward Myrnohrad (via Promin). Another possible maneuver could involve an advance from Hrodivka toward Novoekonomichne, with attempts to break through along the railway directly to Pokrovsk from the direction of Novohrodivka.
• The Russian military command is likely to attempt to encircle or bypass Velyka Novosilka and cut off the T0518 highway, creating favorable conditions for further advances toward the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast to envelope Ukrainian Defense Forces in the southwestern part of the Donetsk Oblast. Russian forces may also try to advance toward Andriivka from the south, facilitated by cutting off the T0518 highway.
• The enemy’s military command in the theater of operations until March 2025 will be creating conditions to achieve the military-political goal of the Special Military Operation: reaching the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts and the junction of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Donetsk Oblasts near the village of Temyrivka.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 02.12.24

Personnel – almost 743,920 (+1,790);

Tanks 9,478 (+9);

Armored combat vehicles – 19,397 (+28);

Artillery systems – 20,953 (+30);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,253 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 1,019 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 30,606 (+99);

Aircraft – 369 (0);

Helicopters – 329 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 19,886 (+83);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,852 (0)

Boats/ships – 29 (0).

Humanitarian + general:

• On the night of December 2, Russians launched an attack on Ukraine with 110 Shahed attack drones and UAVs of other types. Ukrainian forces shot down 52 drones, 50 were lost locally, 6 exited controlled airspace toward Russia and Belarus, and as of 8:30 AM, one drone remained in the air.
• On the night of Monday, December 2, a drone attack caused an explosion in Ternopil, igniting a residential building. One person was killed, four were injured, and the attack damaged a residential building, a school, and 20 cars.
• Overnight and in the morning, Russians carried out three shelling attacks on border areas and settlements in Sumy Oblast, resulting in 11 explosions. Krasnopilska and Seredyna-Buda communities were affected.
• In Chernivtsi Oblast, a Russian drone was destroyed during a nighttime air attack. Falling debris from the downed UAV damaged several buildings in a village in the Dnistrovskyi district. No casualties or injuries were reported.
• On December 1, Russians injured five residents of Donetsk Oblast: two in Pokrovsk, two in Shevchenko, and one in Andriivka. The total number of victims in Donetsk Oblast, excluding Mariupol and Volnovakha, stands at 2,887 killed and 6,475 injured.
• In Kherson Oblast on December 1, Russian attacks resulted in three fatalities and 13 injuries.
• In temporarily occupied Crimea, Russians forced children vacationing in the seized “Artek” camp to assemble drones, make camouflage nets, and produce trench candles, according to the Center for National Resistance. Such “volunteer” activities are regularly organized in what was once an exemplary children’s recreational camp which has been turned into a production site for Russian military support. Young attendees are required to complete mandatory labor hours, at least six per week.

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