Russia’s war on Ukraine. 03.12.24

Operational situation

On the Kursk direction, Russian forces are advancing near Martynovka. Fighting continued near Novoivanovka, Daryino, Nikolaevo-Daryino, Pogrebki, and Plekhovo. The aggressor launches constant attacks on Ukrainian positions in the Kursk Oblast. The Russian authorities have allocated at least 10 million rubles ($94,000) to transform the border into “one large fortified area.” Plans include equipping battalion defense areas prepared for all-around defense, connected by tactical and fire networks. Each area is expected to have 5–8 strongpoints, each 1.5–2 km in length. Trenches, pillboxes, and caponiers for combat vehicles are being constructed across the region.

Ukrainian Defense Forces struck the command post of the 83rd Air Assault Brigade with a missile strike.

On the Kharkiv direction, Russian forces attacked in the direction of Kozacha Lopan and near Starytsia, Tykhe, and Vovchansk but failed to advance.

Ukrainian Defense Forces periodically attack near Hlyboke and its flanks, aiming to cut off supply routes and reserves.

On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces advanced along the western bank of the Oskil River near Novomlynsk and around Kolisnykivka, Kruhlyakivka, Zahryzove, Pishchane, Berestove, Lozova, and Zelenyi Hai. North of Kupyansk, the enemy crossed the Oskil River and advanced in the forests west of Masyutivka. They attacked near Hlushkivka, Kruhlyakivka, Lozova, Zelenyi Hai, Kopanky, Hrekivka, Cherneshchyna, and Druzhelyubivka.

On the Lyman direction, Russian forces launched offensives near Yampolivka, Terny, Torske, and Hryhorivka.

On the Siversk direction, Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked near Bilohorivka.

On the Kramatorsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces advanced southeast of Chasiv Yar along the T0504 Bakhmut–Kostyantynivka highway, pushing back the 4^th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 3rd Army Corps and the Chechen “Akhmat” unit.

The enemy attacked in central Chasiv Yar near the refractory materials plant and near Hryhorivka.

On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces advanced south of Toretsk to the “Tsentralna” mine, capturing two spoil heaps near the mine. They attacked near Toretsk, Nelipivka, and Shcherbynivka.

On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces advanced within Zhovte, on the eastern outskirts of Pushkyne, and toward Novopustynka. They attacked near Myrolyubivka, Promin, Lysivka, Krasnyi Yar, Novyi Trud, Dachenske, Zhovte, Chumatske, and Pushkyne.

On the Kurakhove direction, Russian forces made minor advances northwest of Sontsivka and west of Berestky, with fighting ongoing in Stari Terny. They advanced south of Kurakhove near Dalnie, attacking around Kurakhove, Berestky, Stari Terny, Sontsivka, Zoria, Novodmytrivka, and Dalnie.

Ukrainian Defense Forces hold their positions on the western outskirts of Sontsivka.

On the Vremivka direction, Russian forces captured Novyi Komar, advanced toward Rozlyv, and entrenched on the southeastern outskirts of Yelyzavetivka and the northwestern outskirts of Illinka. They are fighting for Romanivka and improving their positions on the northern and southern flanks of Velyka Novosilka. Fighting also occurred near Hannivka, Antonivka, Trudove, and Konstyantynopolske, as well as around Velyka Novosilka, Novyi Komar, and Novopil.

On the Orikhiv direction, positional fighting continued without changes to the front line.

General conclusion:

• Russian forces are attempting to bypass the “Khortytsia” OSG defenses near Kupyansk and capture positions on the eastern bank of the Oskil River by attacking north and south of Dvorichna.
• On the Toretsk direction, the enemy is attempting to advance toward Shcherbynivka.
• On the Kurakhove direction, the enemy is making efforts to encircle Ukrainian Defense Forces on the Kupyansk bridgehead, attacking near Pushkyne, Stari Terny, and toward Sukhi Yaly.
• On the Vremivka direction, the enemy is trying to envelop the Ukrainian Defense Forces’ positions near Velyka Novosilka and has intensified combat activity around Novyi Komar.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

• There were 201 combat engagements on various fronts.
• On the Kharkiv direction, supported by aviation, the enemy launched 8 assaults near Vovchansk and Starytsia.
• On the Kupyansk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled enemy assault actions near Dvorichna, Petropavlivka, Zelenyi Hai, Kolisnykivka, and Lozova, where 7 enemy attacks took place.
• On the Lyman direction, the enemy launched 11 attacks, attempting to breach defenses near Hrekivka, Cherneshchyna, Kopanky, Yampolivka, and Terny.
• On the Siversk direction, 1 enemy assault was repelled near Bilohorivka.
• On the Kramatorsk direction, occupying forces attacked 4 times near Hryhorivka and Chasiv Yar.
• On the Toretsk direction, the enemy carried out nine attacks near Toretsk, Nelipivka, and Shcherbynivka, with most efforts concentrated on Toretsk.
• On the Pokrovsk direction, Ukrainian defenders halted 40 enemy attacks toward Myrolyubivka, Promin, Lysivka, Krasnyi Yar, Dachenske, Zhovte, Chumatske, and Novyi Trud.
• On the Kurakhove direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 67 enemy attacks. The most intense efforts were in the areas of Berestky, Stari Terny, Sontsivka, Novodmytrivka, Zorya, Kurakhove, Dalnie, Katerynivka, Antonivka, and Hanivka.
• On the Vremivka direction, the enemy conducted 30 assaults in the areas of Konstyantynopolske, Rozdolne, Velyka Novosilka, Novoandriivka, Novosilka, and Novopil.
• On the Huliaypole direction, the enemy launched an airstrike using attack aircraft on Huliaypole.
• On the Prydniprovskyi direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 3 enemy attacks near Kozatskyi Island; the enemy did not succeed.
• On the Kursk direction, over the past day, 15 clashes occurred, and the enemy conducted 14 airstrikes.
• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
  • Black Sea: 1 ship, including 1 cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 0 cruise missiles.
  • Mediterranean Sea: 5 ships, including 4 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 44 cruise missiles.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

• The 136th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 6th Combined Arms Army operates near the international border in Belgorod Oblast.
• Units of the paramilitary “Nevskaya Volunteer Reconnaissance and Assault Brigade” are active near Vasyukivka, southwest of Siversk.
• The 1437th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 15th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, 2nd Combined Arms Army operates near Selydove.
• The 32nd BARS detachment is active in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

Possible operation situation developments:

• On the Kupyansk direction, the enemy will try to break through the “Khortytsia” OSG defense near Kruhlyakivka and advance southward toward Bohuslavka and Nova Kruhlyakivka; attack Lozova and move toward Nova Kruhlyakivka; breach the “Khortytsia” OSG defense at Pershotravneve toward Kopanky and Novoserhiyivka, forcing Ukrainian Defense Forces to retreat from positions near Novoyehorivka under the threat of encirclement.
• The enemy activity in the Dvorichna area is likely an attempt to distract attention and draw reserves of the “Khortytsia” OSG’s Kupyansk group to a secondary section ahead of the start of the next phase of the offensive by the 1st Tank Army of the enemy’s “Zapad (West)” Operational Grouping on Kupyansk itself. The enemy is attempting to establish a threatening bridgehead, forcing the “Khortytsia” OSG command to allocate resources to eliminate it. Simultaneously, the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division, 4th and 47th Tank Divisions of the 1st Tank Army may launch an offensive from the east, southeast, and south toward Kupyansk, supported by the 25th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade and the 11th Army Corps from positions in Synkivka.
• On the Kramatorsk direction, if the enemy manages to advance to the Chervone–Stupochky line and simultaneously begins intensive northward attacks at the junction of its 41st and 51st Armies from the Novooleksandrivka–Arkhanhelske line, reaching the Yablunivka–Oleksandro-Kalynove line on the Toretsk direction, then the “Khortytsia” OSG will be forced to withdraw towards Kostyantynivka. The operational situation is deteriorating, and if it develops negatively, with the loss of the refractory materials plant in Chasiv Yar, it will be lost by the end of December.
• The enemy continues advancing westward along the H15 highway toward Andriivka while simultaneously attacking the Defense Forces’ bridgehead northeast of Vuhledar along the Uspenivka–Hannivka–Romanivka line, aiming to force “Tavriya” OSG units to withdraw westward under the threat of encirclement. Such a maneuver could allow Russian forces to seize advantageous tactical positions in this area and align the frontline from Sontsivka to Konstyantynopil, positioning Russian troops approximately 23 km east of the Donetsk–Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border.
• By the end of the current year, the enemy will not succeed in seizing the “belt of fortresses” Kostyantynivka – Druzhkivka – Kramatorsk – Sloviansk or occupying Donetsk Oblast. The upcoming battle for Pokrovsk will mark the apex of the enemy’s offensive operation in the Southwestern Theater of Operations in 2024.
• The expected sequence of enemy actions for capturing Pokrovsk is as follows: first, the 90th Tank Division of the 41st Combined Arms Army and the 27th Motorized Rifle Division of the 2nd Combined Arms Army will break through to the area south of Pokrovsk. Afterward, the main forces of the 2nd and 41st Combined Arms Armies will advance from the direction of Mykolaivka toward Myrnohrad (via Promin). Another possible maneuver could involve an advance from Hrodivka toward Novoekonomichne, with attempts to break through along the railway directly to Pokrovsk from the direction of Novohrodivka.
• The Russian military command is likely to attempt to envelope or bypass Velyka Novosilka and cut off the T0518 highway, creating favorable conditions for further advances toward the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast to envelope Ukrainian Defense Forces in the southwestern part of the Donetsk Oblast. Russian forces may also try to advance toward Andriivka from the south, facilitated by cutting off the T0518 highway.
• The enemy’s military command in the theater of operations until March 2025 will be creating conditions to achieve the military-political goal of the Special Military Operation: reaching the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts and the junction of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Donetsk Oblasts near the village of Temyrivka.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 03.12.24

Personnel – almost 745,700 (+1,780);

Tanks 9,486 (+8);

Armored combat vehicles – 19,419 (+22);

Artillery systems – 20,976 (+23);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,253 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 1,019 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 30,666 (+60);

Aircraft – 369 (0);

Helicopters – 329 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 19,917 (+31);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,855 (+3)

Boats/ships – 29 (0).

Humanitarian + general:

• During the night of December 3, Russian forces launched 28 attack drones of various types at Ukraine. Air defense destroyed 22 of them. One drone was lost in a known location, and two left controlled airspace in the direction of Belarus and temporarily occupied territory. Several hits on critical infrastructure were recorded in Ternopil Oblast and Rivne Oblast.
• During the night of December 3, an enemy drone hit an energy infrastructure facility in Ternopil, leaving part of the city without electricity. In Rivne, a fire broke out at an infrastructure facility and was extinguished by 12:00 p.m.
• Russian occupiers shelled Nikopol in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast twice during the night. The attacks damaged a gymnasium, a sanatorium, private residential houses, power lines, gas pipelines, and vehicles.
• As a result of Russian shelling in the Pokrovsk community and in Kostyantynivka in Donetsk Oblast on December 3, three people were killed and five were injured.
• Russian forces continue to kill and injure civilians in Kherson Oblast by dropping explosives from drones. In the suburb of Kherson, the village of Antonivka, a 51-year-old man was injured in the morning, and in the afternoon, a 54-year-old man was also injured. In Beryslav, Kherson Oblast, a 43-year-old woman was killed.
• Russian forces shelled the village of Bilozerka in Kherson Oblast with artillery, resulting in one fatality and two injuries.
• The population of temporarily occupied Mariupol, controlled by the Russian army, is facing a shortage of drinking water because the Starokrymske Reservoir near the city has critically dried up. The reservoir was never designed for stable water supply to Mariupol and was always a reserve source. However, since the start of Russian occupation, it has become the primary source. In Ukrainian-controlled Mariupol, plans to address water supply issues involved a major investment project to modernize the city’s water supply and wastewater systems. This project included building a filtration station and was being implemented with support from the French government. During the blockade of the city at the start of the full-scale invasion, Russian forces deliberately destroyed critical infrastructure.
• Russian Ombudsman Tatyana Moskalkova published a list of Ukrainian prisoners of war whom Ukraine allegedly “does not want” to take back. In response, Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate reported that seven people from that list have already returned, and no official proposals from Russia regarding the return of these individuals had been received through official channels. The Directorate also noted numerous errors in the list, including mistakes in surnames and birth dates, and pointed out that fourteen individuals listed were civilians. The Directorate emphasized that such statements aim to undermine trust in Ukrainian state institutions and manipulate the vulnerable state of families with relatives held in captivity.
• Yale University’s School of Public Health published a study asserting that planes and funds controlled by Russian President Vladimir Putin were used in a “program for removing children from occupied Ukrainian territories, stripping them of Ukrainian identity, and transferring them to Russian families.”
• The Cabinet of Ministers renamed the Ministry of Reintegration of Temporarily Occupied Territories to the Ministry of National Unity of Ukraine. At a meeting on December 3, the Verkhovna Rada appointed Oleksiy Chernyshov as Vice Prime Minister of Ukraine and Minister of National Unity. According to Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal, the new Vice Prime Minister is expected to present a clear plan for developing the ministry, his team, and key performance indicators in the near future. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that the ministry’s activities will include the return of Ukrainian citizens from abroad.

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