Russia’s war on Ukraine. 12.12.24

On the Kursk direction, Russian troops are trying to advance south and east of Novoivanovka, fighting for Daryino and Plekhovo.

On the Kharkiv direction, Russian troops tried to advance to Vovchansk, but the “Kharkiv” OTG units conducted a successful counterattack. The enemy advanced in the areas of Hlyboke, Strilecha, Lyptsi, Starytsia and Vovchansk.

On the Kupyansk direction, Russian troops attacked near Petropavlivka, Kolisnykivka, Zahryzove, Hlushkivka, Lozova, Kopanky, Zelenyi Hai, Nadezhda, Makiivka, Cherneshchyna, Tverdokhlibove, Druzhelyubivka.

On the Lyman direction, Russian troops advanced near Hrekivka, Terny, Torske, Zarichne, Yampolivka, in the area of the Serebriansk Forest.

On the Siversk direction, Russian troops attacked in the areas of Siversk, Bilohorivka and Verkhnokamianske.

On the Kramatorsk direction, battles continue for the refractory materials plant in Chasiv Yar. Russian troops are trying to gain a foothold on the western bank of the Seversky Donets-Donbass canal near Ozaryanivka, attacked at Chasiv Yar, Bila Hora and Stupochky.

On the Toretsk direction, Russian troops slightly advanced to the northwest along Fabrychna Street in the center of Toretsk, advancing on Rudnychna and Maiakovskogo streets towards the Central Market in the city center, to Leonidivka, capturing the “Central” mine and nearby spoil heaps in the “Zabalka” neighborhood, and attacked near Dyliivka and Shcherbynivka.

On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian troops have successfully advanced south of Pokrovsk, pushing west in the Novyi Trud area and along the E50 highway south of Dachenske, reaching a position 6 km south of Pokrovsk. The enemy is trying to encircle Ukrainian Defense Forces between Novyi Trud and Dachenske in the coming days, thus securing a favorable position for an offensive on Shevchenko. The enemy attacked Ukrainian positions west of Novyi Trud, south of Novotroitske, and on the southwestern outskirts of Shevchenkove itself.

On the Kurakhove direction, Russian troops advanced south of Kurakhove, southwest of Dalnie, are fighting for Sontsivka, trying to advance towards the outskirts of Petropavlivka, pushing through the center of Kurakhove, in the “Pivdennyi” neighborhood, around Stari Terny, on Peremohy Street in Veselyi Hai, attacked near Kurakhove, Dachne, Sontsivka, Zorya, Stari Terny, Dalnie, on the outskirts of Konstyantynopil, Sukhi Yaly, Trudove, Uspenivka, Hannivka, Yelyzavetivka, Antonivka, and Katerynivka. The 5th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 51st Army continues the offensive near the elevator in the center of Kurakhove.

On the Vremivka direction, advanced units of the enemy’s 36th and 114th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades, redeployed to this direction from the area northeast of Kurakhove, attacked towards Trudove – Uspenivka, Trudove – Konstyantynopolske, Maksymivka – Sukhi Yaly, trying to break through the Sukhyi Yaly – Uspenivka section behind the Sukhi Yaly River and completely cut off the logistics routes and the retreat paths of Ukrainian Defense Forces units still fighting in the Hannivka and Uspenivka areas.

The situation is complicated by the fact that advanced units of the 20th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Army are attacking Uspenivka from the north from the direction of Dalnie.

Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold their positions in Romanivka, Hannivka, and Uspenivka and did not take advantage of a favorable moment to withdraw 2-3 days ago and are now effectively surrounded.

Units of the 40th Separate Marines Brigade of the Pacific Fleet continue attempts to break through along the Rozdolne – Novoocheretuvate direction and towards Novyi Komar.

Attacks by the enemy’s 36th Army (37th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, 5th Tank Brigade) on Velyka Novosilka from the east and south continue. The enemy has captured Blahodatne but cannot advance further.

The enemy’s 60th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade has unsuccessfully tried to squeeze Ukrainian Defense Forces units in the Makarivka and Neskuchne areas.

The 127th Motorized Rifle Division of the 5th Army, after capturing Rivnopillya and reaching the outskirts of Novodarivka, stopped its advance. Its advanced units continue to attack in the narrow area between Rivnopillya and Makarivka, trying to push Ukrainian Defense Forces units out of Makarivka under the threat of encirclement.

On the Orikhiv direction, Russian troops continued their offensive in the area of Novoandriivka and Pyatykhatky.

General conclusion:

• On the Kharkiv direction, Russian forces attack the flanks of the “Kharkiv” OTG defense and, due to heavy losses, have abandoned frontal assaults. Small infantry groups attack the front line and consolidate their positions, after which more experienced units attack using these positions as a foothold. The enemy has accumulated a significant amount of manpower and equipment and may intensify attacks in the north of Kharkiv Oblast. Units from the “African Corps,” which have combat experience in Syria, have been noted in the north of Kharkiv Oblast.
• On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces attempt to cross the Oskil River and capture Kupyansk by January 1, 2025.
• The tactical situation for Ukrainian Defense Forces near Pokrovsk is described as “critical.” Each enemy battalion advancing in this direction receives up to 200 personnel reinforcements per month. The enemy attacks Ukrainian positions up to 30 times per day, maintaining an advantage in manpower, artillery, and ammunition. The military command of the enemy’s “Center” Operational Grouping has resumed its offensive on Pokrovsk and is maneuvering to encircle the city from the south, but is suffering significant losses.
• The current distribution of forces and assets of the “Vostok” Operational Grouping indicates that, at the moment, the enemy command is focusing its main strike on the Vremivka direction (where 3 out of 4 armies of the “Vostok” Operational Grouping are active, including the most powerful – the 5th Combined Arms Army).
• On the Vremivka direction, the situation is difficult but not critical. The enemy command is actively attempting to break through in almost all key points of this sector – in Sukhi Yaly, in the area of Konstyantynopolske and Yantarne, and persistently attacking through Trudove toward Uspenivka. The enemy aims to cut off both main roads leading from Velyka Novosilka to the north: toward Bahatyr, the route southeast of Rozdolne has already been cut off, but the route toward Komar is still operational. The enemy’s military command may attempt to exploit the situation in its favor by deploying the 336th Separate Marines Brigade of the Baltic Fleet, the 57th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, and the 34th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade.
• After breaking through the “Khortytsia” OSG defense to nearly its entire tactical depth in the Zolota Nyva – Vuhledar sector several weeks ago, the enemy has failed to fully exploit the opportunities this breakthrough presented. The Russian command made an error in planning operations against the entire Kurakhove-Vuhledar bridgehead at the end of the summer, distributing its main reserves and resources in favor of its grouping on the northern flank (the “Center” Operational Grouping) rather than the southern flank (the “Vostok” Operational Grouping).
• Russian forces have intensified military activity at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, establishing new firing positions for “Uragan” and “Smerch” MRLS near the plant, and constructing new trenches and fortifications near the cooling pond.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

• There were 203 combat engagements on various fronts.
• On the Kharkiv direction, the occupiers unsuccessfully stormed Ukrainian positions 6 times in the areas of Hlyboke, Lyptsi, Starytsia, and Vovchansk.
• On the Kupyansk direction, there were 14 Russian attacks. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled enemy assaults near Zapadne, Pishchane, Lozova, and Zahryzove.
• On the Lyman direction, the invaders attacked the positions of Ukrainian Defense Forces 30 times, attempting to break through the defense near Tverdokhlibove, Druzhelyubivka, Novoyehorivka, Hrekivka, Makiivka, Terny, Torske, Hryhorivka, Kopanka, and in the Serebriansk Forest.
• On the Siversk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled an assault by Russian invaders near Verkhnokamianske.
• On the Kramatorsk direction, the enemy attempted to advance twice near Chasiv Yar and Stupochky.
• On the Toretsk direction, actively using guided bombs, the occupiers stormed the positions of Ukrainian Defense Forces near Toretsk 5 times.
• On the Pokrovsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces stopped 40 Russian attacks. The enemy actively used aviation and stormed Ukrainian positions in the areas of Shevchenko, Pishchane, Novotroitske, Novooleksiivka, Novyi Trud, Dachenske, Lysivka, Myrolyubivka, Promin, and Pokrovsk.
• On the Kurakhove direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 49 attacks. The occupiers most actively tried to advance near Sontsivka, Stari Terny, Dachenske, Zorya, Kurakhove, Dachne, Katerynivka, Yelyzavetivka, Hannivka, Antonivka, and Uspenivka.
• On the Vremivka direction, the enemy carried out 29 assaults in the areas of Trudove, Konstyantynopil, Sukhi Yaly, Blahodatne, and Novodarivka, actively using bomber aviation for strikes.
• On the Orikhiv direction, the enemy attacked Ukrainian defenders’ positions once near Novoandriivka.
• On the Prydniprovskyi direction, the occupiers unsuccessfully tried 5 times to push Ukrainian Defense Forces units from their positions.
  • In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
• Mediterranean Sea: 6 ships, including 4 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 41 cruise missiles.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

• The 25th BARS “Anwar” detachment and the volunteer battalion “Arbat” operate near Sudzha. The 382nd Separate Marines Battalion of the 810th Separate Marines Brigade of the Black Sea Fleet is active near Plekhovo.
• The 16th Separate SOF Brigade operates in the area of the Serebriansk Forest. The 144th Motorized Rifle Division of the 20th Combined Arms Army is active near Terny.
• On the Vremivka direction, the enemy forces under the control of the “Vostok (East)” Operational Grouping operate with units of
  • the 5th Combined Arms Army (127th Motorized Rifle Division, 60th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, and the attached 34th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 49th Combined Arms Army),
  • the 36th Combined Arms Army (37th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade and 5th Separate Tank Brigade),
  • the 29th Combined Arms Army (36th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade and the attached 57th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 5th Combined Arms Army),
  • the 40th Separate Marine Brigade of the Pacific Fleet, and the 336th Separate Marine Brigade of the Baltic Fleet.
• The operational area of the “Vostok” grouping also includes the Huliaypole direction, where forces of the 35th Combined Arms Army (39th and 64th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades, 69th Separate Logistics Brigade) are engaged in combat.
• Overall, the “Vostok” Operational Grouping includes one motorized rifle division, up to 9 brigades, up to 7 regiments, and up to 6 formations at the battalion/detachment level. The operational reserve of the “Vostok” grouping consists of up to 2 motorized rifle regiments and up to 4 reserve battalions. The total strength of the grouping is approximately 54,000-55,000 personnel, 348 tanks, 815-820 armored fighting vehicles, up to 430-432 guns and mortars, 110-112 multiple rocket launch systems (MLRS), and support from two operational-tactical missile battalions armed with “Iskander” missile systems.

Possible operation situation developments:

• On the Kupyansk direction, the enemy will try to break through the “Khortytsia” OSG defense near Kruhlyakivka and advance southward toward Bohuslavka and Nova Kruhlyakivka; attack Lozova and move toward Nova Kruhlyakivka; breach the “Khortytsia” OSG defense at Pershotravneve toward Kopanky and Novoserhiyivka, forcing Ukrainian Defense Forces to retreat from positions near Novoyehorivka under the threat of encirclement.
• On the Kramatorsk direction, the “Khortytsia” OSG units will be forced to retreat to the Kostyantynivka area if the enemy reaches the Chervone–Stupochky line and simultaneously launches an offensive northward at the junction of its 41st and 51st Combined Arms Armies from the Novooleksandrivka–Arkhanhelske line, advancing to the Yablunivka–Oleksandro-Kalynove line on the Toretsk direction. If the Chasiv Yar Refractory Materials Plant is lost, it will be under enemy control by the end of December.
• On the Pokrovsk direction, the enemy will attempt to advance to the Novotroitske–Ukrainka line, which would achieve two operational objectives: bypassing the flank of Ukrainian Defense Forces units holding Zorya and Sontsivka and simultaneously creating favorable conditions for enveloping Pokrovsk from the south.
• If the enemy advances to the area where the Vovcha and Solona rivers converge near Dachne from the north, the position of Ukrainian Defense Forces units in Kurakhove will become critically complicated unless they manage to retreat in time. In the southern part of the Kurakhove bridgehead, Ukrainian Defense Forces units will soon have to abandon Hannivka and Uspenivka to avoid encirclement and retreat in a northwesterly direction.
• On the Vremivka direction, intense battles for Velyka Novosilka are expected to unfold soon, as the enemy’s future ability to organize and carry out a further offensive toward Rozlyv and Bahatyr, as well as to conduct a deep flanking maneuver against the Ukrainian Defense Forces’ grouping from the south, depends on it. By controlling Rozdolne (located between Velyka Novosilka and the Zaporizhzhia–Donetsk highway) and having a convenient stronghold for concentrating and deploying additional forces and assets, the enemy command will soon attempt to cut off all “Khortytsia” OSG’s communication lines in Velyka Novosilka. The enemy will once again attempt to break through towards Novyi Komar or in the direction of Dniproenerhiya.
• By the end of the current year, the enemy will not succeed in seizing the “belt of fortresses” Kostyantynivka – Druzhkivka – Kramatorsk – Sloviansk or occupying Donetsk Oblast. The upcoming battle for Pokrovsk will mark the apex of the enemy’s offensive operation in the Southwestern Theater of Operations in 2024.
• The enemy’s military command in the theater of operations until March 2025 will be creating conditions to achieve the military-political goal of the “Special Military Operation”: reaching the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts and the junction of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Donetsk Oblasts near the village of Temyrivka.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 12.12.24

Personnel – almost 758,730 (+1,390);

Tanks 9,532 (+6);

Armored combat vehicles – 19,644 (+28);

Artillery systems – 21,072 (+5);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,253 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 1.023 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 31,127 (+54);

Aircraft – 369 (0);

Helicopters – 329 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 20,111 (0);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,861 (+2)

Boats/ships – 29 (0).

Humanitarian + general:

• Since early morning, Russian forces have been striking Kherson with drones. As a result of another drone attack in the Dnipro district of the city, a 67-year-old man sustained injuries incompatible with life. In the village of Kindiyka, Kherson District, they attacked a civilian car with a drone, injuring a 54-year-old man.
• In Donetsk Oblast, 326 children still live in settlements classified as active combat zones.
• On Thursday, December 12, Russian drones attacked Sumy Oblast. According to preliminary information, one person was injured, and there was damage to residential properties.
• On December 12, Russian troops shelled the Nikopol district in the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast using kamikaze drones and heavy artillery. A 51-year-old woman was injured. Eleven private homes, two utility buildings, and a store were damaged. The infrastructure and a business were also damaged. The gas pipeline and power lines were affected.
• As of December 2024, 301 Ukrainian civilian women are being held in Russian captivity. At least 25 of them were imprisoned before the start of the full-scale invasion, and 276 after, according to Olga Skrypnyk, head of the board of the Crimean Human Rights Group. These numbers are not final, and significantly more women are believed to be in Russian captivity. Verifying this is extremely difficult because Russia refuses to provide information on civilian detainees.
• In the first 11 months of this year, police have seized over 11,000 mines and large-caliber munitions from citizens.
  

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