Russia’s war on Ukraine. 16.12.24

On the Kursk direction, Russian forces attempted to advance in the area of Cherkasskoe Porechie and from Plekhovo toward Kurilovka but were unsuccessful.

North Korean units were forced to overcome Ukrainian minefields up to 2 km deep to assault the ruins of Plekhovo. Heavy enemy losses and poor coordination were reported.

On the Kharkiv direction, Russian forces advanced in the areas of Vysoka Yaruha, Lyptsi, Vovchansk, and Tykhe.

Defense Forces counterattacked near Hlyboke.

On the Kupyansk direction, the enemy managed to significantly expand its tactical bridgehead on the Oskil River, south of Dvorichna, in the direction of Masyutivka–Zakhidne. Russian forces are engaged in battles for Dvorichna and are attempting to advance north of Zelenyi Hai. The enemy retreated from its bridgehead on the western bank of the Oskil River near Novomlynsk. They attacked near Zahryzove, Lozova, Pershotravneve, Zelenyi Hai, Kopanka, Nadiia, Hrekivka, Novoserhiyivka, Tverdokhlibove, Druzhelyubivka, and Novoyehorivka.

On the Lyman direction, Russian forces advanced in the areas of Makiivka and Terny.

On the Siversk direction, Russian forces carried out a large-scale assault and advanced north of Vesele but failed to break through to Zolotarivka. The assault was well-prepared and coordinated, with effective interaction between assault groups, artillery, UAV units, and electronic warfare units.

On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces advanced in Chasiv Yar and near Stupochky but did not gain ground.

On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces advanced westward along Volodina Street in Toretsk and stormed Ukrainian Defense Forces positions in Toretsk and near Shcherbynivka.

Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked near the spoil tips at the “Central” mine in the center of Toretsk.

The situation for Ukrainian Defense Forces worsened after the withdrawal of the 12th Separated Brigade of Operative Purpose of the National Guard from the city.

On the Pokrovsk direction, the enemy command of the “Tsentr (Center)” Operational Grouping is attempting to break through to Pokrovsk from the south. To this end, they have fully committed the 2nd Combined Arms Army (27th Motorized Rifle Division, 15th and 30th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades, 385th Artillery Brigade) and the 90th Tank Division (6th, 80th, 239th Tank Regiments, 228th Motorized Rifle Regiment, 400th Self-propelled Artillery Regiment) as well as the 41st Combined Arms Army (35th, 74th, and 137th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades) to the operation.

The enemy captured Novotroitske and Shevchenko, effectively breaching the immediate approaches to Pokrovsk from the south. They have advanced directly to the Lysivka–Dachenske line, encircling the defense positions of the “Donetsk” OTG in Pokrovsk from the south and southeast. Simultaneously, the enemy seeks to support its forces south of Pokrovsk from the west and is trying to reach the Novotroitske–Ukrainka line. The forward units of the 90th Tank Division managed to advance west of Pushkyne and approach Novoolenivka from the north of Novotroitske. Forward units of the 589th and 506th Motorized Rifle Regiments of the 27th Motorized Rifle Division of the 2nd Combined Arms Army conducted several unsuccessful attacks near Mykolaivka, attempting to break through toward Promin and the southern outskirts of Myrnohrad.

On a supporting front, the 74th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 41st Combined Arms Army made several attempts at local attacks in the directions of Myrolyubivka and Yelyzavetivka, trying to cross the Kazenyi Torets River in this sector. These attempts were unsuccessful.

Ukrainian Defense Forces are engaged in heavy defensive, including rearguard, battles along the entire perimeter of the Kurakhove bridgehead — in the areas of Zoria, Sontsivka, Shevchenkove, Dachne, Kurakhove, Uspenivka, Sukhi Yaly, and south of Rozlyv.

On the Kurakhove direction, Russian forces advanced to Mechnykova Street in Kurakhove, northwest of Uspenivka, and along the O0515 Kurakhove–Velyka Novosilka highway. They advanced near Kurakhove, Stari Terny, Sontsivka, Zoria, Yelyzavetivka, Uspenivka, Hannivka, Trudove, Konstyantynopolske, Sukhi Yaly, Rozlyv, and Zelenivka. They are fighting for Veselyi Hai, clearing Uspenivka and Hannivka, and have broken through to the left bank of the Sukhi Yaly River near Zelenivka. They are now approximately 7 km from Konstyantynopil.

Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked near Konstyantynopolske. The 214th Separate Special Battalion secured the withdrawal of a battalion of the 79th Separate Air Assault Brigade from encirclement in Hannivka.

On the Vremivka direction, the Separate Presidential Brigade and the 128th Mountain Assault Brigade stabilized the front line and regularly launch successful counterattacks.

The 40th Separate Marines Brigade of the Pacific Fleet advanced on the southern outskirts and in the center of Novyi Komar. Russian forces advanced in the area of Velyka Novosilka but failed. They crossed the Mokri Yaly River west of Blahodatne, advanced south of Velyka Novosilka, and attacked near Rozdolne, Storozhove, Makarivka, Neskuchne, Novodarivka, Novopil, and Novosilka. The enemy destroyed a river crossing over the Mokri Yaly River near Novoocheretuvate with an airstrike.

On the Orikhiv direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces destroyed a fuel train (up to 40 tankers) near Tokmak.

General conclusion:

• North of Dvorichna, Ukrainian Defense Forces pushed the enemy back beyond the Oskil River. However, the situation south of Dvorichna is worsening as the enemy attempts to break through toward Zapadne via the forest on the right bank of the Oskil. The enemy is focused on driving Ukrainian forces from the eastern bank of the Oskil River, launching intense attacks despite suffering heavy losses.
• On the Siversk direction, 55 combat clashes occurred, marking a sharp increase.
• According to Ukrainian estimates, the casualty ratio on the Toretsk direction is at least 1:15 in Ukraine’s favor.
• South of Pokrovsk, the enemy has achieved tactical success, significantly complicating the organization and conduct of defense for the “Donetsk” Operational Tactical Grouping (OTG) throughout the entire Pokrovsk area. Enemy activity in the operational zone of the 41st Army is expected to increase. Without enveloping Pokrovsk from the north and northeast, any assault would result in delays and heavy losses. The towns of Myrnohrad and Novoekonomichne are at risk of occupation. The command of the “Tsentr (Center)” Operational Grouping is rushing to intensify actions on the Pokrovsk direction, taking advantage of the situation on neighboring fronts, where Ukrainian Defense Forces are forced to defend an overstretched frontline with limited forces.
• On the Kurakhove direction, particularly near Selydove, the enemy command is attempting a short but intense push toward Pokrovsk. The enemy broke through south of Pokrovsk and west of Selydove about 1.5 weeks ago. Since then, the pace of enemy advance has slowed, but the enemy has nearly achieved its immediate tactical goal — reaching the Novotroitske–Ukrainka line. During adverse weather, the number of Russian assaults drops to 2-3 per day, but in favorable conditions, it rises to 7-8 attacks per day.
• The enemy positions tanks with metal drone protection and electronic warfare (EW) systems at the front of columns. These vehicles retreat immediately after the lead tank is hit.
• Recently, the enemy has been actively moving armored vehicles to the operational zones of the 58th Army of the “Dnepr” Operational Grouping and the 35th Army of the “Vostok (East)” Operational Grouping.
• The Russian Aerospace Forces are running out of Universal Planning and Correction Modules (UMPC) for KAB bombs and the airframe resources of aircraft capable of deploying them (Su-24 and Su-34) are being depleted. Production of UMPCs peaked this summer and has since declined. The manufacturing company “Typhoon” has failed to fulfill state contracts for two consecutive months. The number of operational Su-24 and Su-34 aircraft is steadily decreasing as most require major repairs due to intensive use. Repair facilities are struggling to cope with the workload. The number of UMPCs mounted for strikes has dropped from 4 to 2 due to the depletion of aircraft airframe resources.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

• There were 228 combat engagements on various fronts.
• On the Kharkiv direction, the enemy attacked the positions of the “Kharkiv” OTG 10 times in the areas of Vysoka Yaruha, Tykhe, and Vovchansk.
• On the Kupyansk direction, there were 4 Russian attacks. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled the enemy’s assault actions near Zahryzove and Lozova.
• On the Lyman direction, the enemy attacked 20 times, attempting to break through the Ukrainian defense near Novoyehorivka, Hrekivka, Terny, Tverdokhlibove, and Nadiia.
• On the Siversk direction, 34 clashes took place near Bilohorivka, Verkhnokamianske, Ivano-Dariivka, and Vyimka.
• On the Kramatorsk direction, the occupiers attacked 4 times in the areas of Chasiv Yar and Stupochky.
• On the Toretsk direction, the enemy, supported by aviation, carried out 12 attacks near Toretsk and Shcherbynivka.
• On the Pokrovsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces stopped 32 assault and offensive actions of the aggressor near the settlements of Myrolyubivka, Promin, Lysivka, Dachenske, Zelenе, Pishchane, and Novoolenivka.
• On the Kurakhove direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 32 attacks. The occupiers attempted to advance in the areas of Stari Terny, Sontsivka, Zora, Kurakhove, and Uspenivka.
• On the Vremivka direction, the enemy carried out 35 assaults on Ukrainian positions in the areas of Sukhi Yaly, Rozlyv, Zelenivka, Konstyantynopil, Trudove, Novyi Komar, Novosilka, and Makarivka, actively using assault and bomber aviation.
• On the Prydniprovskyi direction, Russian invaders attempted to push Ukrainian units out of their positions 5 times but faced strong resistance and suffered losses.
• The operation in Kursk Oblast continues. The “Siversk” OTG repelled 38 enemy attacks.
• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
  • Mediterranean Sea: 7 ships, including 4 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 41 cruise missiles.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

• The 1427th Motorized Rifle Regiment and the “Pyatnashka” paramilitary formation operate near Russkoe Porechie.
• The 55th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 41st Army is active in Toretsk.
• The “Maksym Kryvonos” “volunteer unit,” allegedly formed from former servicemen of Ukrainian Defense Forces, operates on the Pokrovsk direction.
• The 39th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 68th Army Corps is active near Vesely Hai. The 242nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 20th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Army is clearing Hannivka.
• Assault units of the 218th Tank Regiment and the 143rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 127th Motorized Rifle Division of the 5th Army manned by former convicts operate in the area of Velyka Novosilka.

Possible operation situation developments:

• On the Kupyansk direction, the enemy will try to break through the “Khortytsia” OSG defense near Kruhlyakivka and advance southward toward Bohuslavka and Nova Kruhlyakivka; attack Lozova and move toward Nova Kruhlyakivka; breach the “Khortytsia” OSG defense at Pershotravneve toward Kopanky and Novoserhiyivka, forcing Ukrainian Defense Forces to retreat from positions near Novoyehorivka under the threat of encirclement.
• On the Kramatorsk direction, the “Khortytsia” OSG units will be forced to retreat to the Kostyantynivka area if the enemy reaches the Chervone–Stupochky line and simultaneously launches an offensive northward at the junction of its 41st and 51st Combined Arms Armies from the Novooleksandrivka–Arkhanhelske line, advancing to the Yablunivka–Oleksandro-Kalynove line on the Toretsk direction. If the Chasiv Yar Refractory Materials Plant is lost, it will be under enemy control by the end of December.
• On the Pokrovsk direction, to further strengthen efforts along the main axis of attack, the enemy will soon deploy the 15th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Army on the section between the assault zones of the 27th Motorized Rifle Division and the 90th Tank Division. This will allow the 90th Tank Division to consolidate its combat formations in the area of Novotroitske and toward Ukrainka. A withdrawal of the “Donetsk” OTG to the Ukrainka – Andriivka – Rozlyv – Novoocheretuvate line is expected. The length of the line of contact will be reduced, thereby tightening the combat formations of the operational-tactical group.
• If the enemy advances to the area where the Vovcha and Solona rivers converge near Dachne from the north, the position of Ukrainian Defense Forces units in Kurakhove will become critically complicated unless they manage to retreat in time.
• On the Vremivka direction, intense battles for Velyka Novosilka are expected to unfold soon, as the enemy’s future ability to organize and carry out a further offensive toward Rozlyv and Bahatyr, as well as to conduct a deep flanking maneuver against the Ukrainian Defense Forces’ grouping from the south, depends on it. Maintaining control over Rozdolne (located between Velyka Novosilka and the Zaporizhzhia–Donetsk highway) and having a convenient stronghold for concentrating and deploying additional forces and assets, the enemy command will soon attempt to cut off all “Khortytsia” OSG’s communication lines in Velyka Novosilka. The enemy will once again attempt to break through towards Novyi Komar or in the direction of Dniproenerhiya.
• By the end of the current year, the enemy will not succeed in seizing the “belt of fortresses” Kostyantynivka – Druzhkivka – Kramatorsk – Sloviansk or occupying Donetsk Oblast. The upcoming battle for Pokrovsk will mark the apex of the enemy’s offensive operation in the Southwestern Theater of Operations in 2024.
• The enemy’s military command in the theater of operations until March 2025 will be creating conditions to achieve the military-political goal of the “Special Military Operation”: reaching the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts and the junction of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Donetsk Oblasts near the village of Temyrivka.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 16.12.24

Personnel – almost 763,510 (+1,070);

Tanks 9,563 (+12);

Armored combat vehicles – 19,736 (+29);

Artillery systems – 21,151 (+23);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,256 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 1,025 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 31,480 (+82);

Aircraft – 369 (0);

Helicopters – 329 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 20,372 (+12);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 2943 (0)

Boats/ships – 29 (0).

Humanitarian + general:

• On the night of December 16, Russian troops attacked Ukraine with 49 Shahed-type UAVs and drones of other types. 27 enemy drones were destroyed, and another 19 were lost in location. As of 08:30, 3 drones remain in the air.
• On the morning of Monday, December 16, Russian military forces dropped explosives from a drone onto a store in the city of Beryslav, Kherson Oblast, resulting in the death of a woman. During another drone attack in the afternoon, Russian forces injured an 82-year-old man in the suburb of Kherson, the village of Antonivka. In the evening, a 34-year-old local resident in the Dnipro district of Kherson was injured in an attack by a Russian drone.
• On December 16, the Russian army shelled the Nikopol district in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast with artillery and kamikaze drones. A 57-year-old woman was injured and hospitalized in serious condition.
• In the evening of December 16, Russian troops struck the residential sector of Kupyansk in Kharkiv Oblast. One civilian man was killed, and another was hospitalized in serious condition. Residential houses were damaged.
• In Donetsk Oblast, due to significant damage to the Second Donetsk water pipeline, water supply has been cut off to the settlements in the Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka, and Kostiantynivka communities.
• The publication by the Russians of videos of interrogations of captured Ukrainian soldiers is part of an information war. They aim to demoralize Ukrainian soldiers and the civilian population, according to the Air Force of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
• In the temporarily occupied territories of Donetsk, the Russians have already set up “volunteer” centers to prepare for propaganda events leading up to May 9 – the 80th anniversary of the victory in World War II.
• In the three weeks since the start of the declaration of firearms found by citizens, Ukrainians have already declared over 1,000 units, and 59 firearms have been handed over to the police.
• On Tuesday, December 17, no electricity consumption restrictions are expected, according to the press service of the National Energy Company “Ukrenergo.” The energy company urges citizens to save electricity.

Centre for Defence Strategies (CDS) is a Ukrainian security think tank. We operate since 2020. We publish this brief daily. If you would like to subscribe, please send us an email at cds.dailybrief@gmail.com

Please note, that we subscribe only verified persons and can decline or cancel the subscription at our own discretion

We are an independent, non-government, non-partisan, and non-profit organisation. More at www.defence.org.ua

Our Twitter (in English) – https://twitter.com/defence_centre Our Facebook (in Ukrainian) – https://www.facebook.com/cds.UA

Our brief is for information only and we verify our information to the best possible extent