Russia’s war on Ukraine. 19.12.24

On the Kursk direction, Russian forces attempted to advance near Kruglenkoe, Plekhovo, Russkoe Porechie, and Cherkasskoe Porechie.

On the Kharkiv direction, Russian forces made slight advances in the center of Vovchansk. Enemy sabotage and reconnaissance groups (SRGs) disguise themselves in Ukrainian uniforms to infiltrate Ukrainian rear positions, which is a violation of the laws of war.

The “Kharkiv” OTG counterattacked in the direction of Hlyboke and secured the achieved positions.

On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces made minor advances south of Dvorichna. They are attempting to push Ukrainian units away from Tabaiivka and improve their positions near Lozova. The enemy attacked near Petropavlivka, Novoyehorivka, Hrekivka, Makiivka, Nadiya, and Zelenyi Hai. Russian forces entered Kruhlyakivka, but Ukrainian units prevented them from advancing toward Kolisnykivka.

On the Lyman direction, Russian forces advanced east of Terny and attacked near Yampolivka and in the area of the Serebriansk Forest.

On the Siversk direction, Russian forces launched attacks near Siversk, in the area of Hryhorivka and Verkhnokamianske. Recently, the enemy has demonstrated a higher level of training and coordination between their units.

On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces advanced in the areas of Chasiv Yar, Hryhorivka, Bila Hora, and Stupochky.

On the Toretsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces regained lost positions in the southern part of Shcherbynivka.

Russian forces advanced west of Nelipivka and engaged in battles near the “Tsentralna” mine, Toretsk, Shcherbynivka, and Dyliivka.

On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces advanced near the railway north of Novyi Trud, Novoolenivka, in the area of Ukrainka, west of Novotroitske, and toward Vovkove. They are fighting for Dachenske and attempted to attack from Novotroitske toward Novovasylivka. Russian troops advanced in the areas of Myrolyubivka, Promin, Lysivka, Sukhy Yar, Zelene, Novooleksiivka, Pushkyne, Novovasylivka, Novopustynka, Pishchane, Novotroitske, Solone, Shevchenkove, Novoelyzavetivka, and Ukrainka.

Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked near Shevchenkove.

On the Kurakhove direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces were unable to hold some positions on the southeastern outskirts of Sontsivka and retreated.

Russian forces are fighting for control of Sontsivka, advancing toward Kurakhove, west of Sontsivka and Zoria, between Sontsivka and Berestky, and in the direction of Dachne, Konstyantynopil, and Ulakli. They attacked near Kurakhove, Stari Terny, Petropavlivka, Dachne, Konstyantynopolske, Sukhi Yaly, Rozlyv, Yantarne, and captured Zelenivka and Hihant.

On the Vremivka direction, Russian forces are fighting for Novyi Komar and Makarivka. They advanced north of Makarivka, near Storozhove, and crossed the Mokri Yaly River. The enemy also attacked near Blahodatne, Novodarivka, in the direction of Temyrivka, Novopil, and near Rozdolne.

On the Orikhiv direction, Russian forces attempted to advance near Novoandriivka, Novodanylivka, and in the direction of Orikhove, but they did not succeed.

General conclusion:

• On the Kursk direction, the enemy makes efforts to eliminate the “Siversk” OTG bridgehead. The OTG holds positions along the line of Nikolaevo-Daryino – Zelenyi Put – Kruglenkoe – Pogrebki – Malaya Loknia – Russkoe Porechie – Cherkasskoe Porechie – Martynovka – Bondarevka – Cherkasskya Konopelka – Plekhovo. The enemy attacks Daryino, Malaya Loknia, and Plekhovo. North Korean units involved in the operation were spotted near Pogrebki, Malaya Loknia, Russkaya Konopelka, Cherkasskya Konopelka, and Plekhovo. The enemy has redeployed reserves from Belgorod Oblast but failed to achieve even tactical success. The “Siversk” OTG skillfully uses terrain and maneuver tactics. OTG units did not cling to Plekhovo at any cost but withdrew north of the Psel River, creating a 5-7 km inter-positional space between themselves and the enemy. This forces the enemy to cross open terrain to attack positions whose layout is unknown to them, all under strikes from UAVs and artillery. The result — dozens of assaults over the past few days have ended at the distant approaches to Ukrainian defenses. The “Siversk” OTG operates similarly on the Snagost River and in the village of Kruglenkoe, where, despite capturing Daryino, Novoivanovka, Zelenyi Put, and Pogrebki, the enemy cannot secure its position in the villages as they come under attack from OTG units.
• On the Kharkiv direction, the enemy has been unable for a long time to overcome the “Kharkiv” OTG defenses, and around Hlyboke, they have abandoned offensive actions altogether. The enemy has been unable to gain control of the Aggregate producing plant in Vovchansk for an extended period and has unsuccessfully attempted to bypass the southern part of the city via the village of Vovchanski Khutory with assault groups of 17-25 troops.
• On the Kupyansk direction, on the western bank of the Oskil River the enemy managed to expand its tactical bridgehead to 6 km along the front and almost 2.5 km in depth through active infantry actions. The 344th and 350th Motorized Rifle Regiments are increasing the density of troops at the bridgehead, reinforcing it with mortars and armored vehicles, and actively attacking Zapadne. They have entered and entrenched themselves in Dvorichna. If the bridgehead at Dvorichna is not eliminated within the next week, the enemy will be able to build up their grouping there, expand it, and threaten a strike on Kupyansk from the northwest. Ukrainian Defense Forces successfully counterattacked in the area of Kolisnykivka and from the forest west of the village, liberating a 2 by 2 km area.
• For several weeks, the enemy has unsuccessfully and with significant losses attempted to seize the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in the area of Kopanky. At the same time, they launched a series of attacks to the north, in the direction of Lozova and Zelenyi Hai. Both sides engaged in active maneuver combat in the area of these villages, resulting in the enemy making gains and advancing to Lozova and Zelenyi Hai. Borova, the ultimate goal of the offensive, remains about 11 km away, with the enemy advancing 5 km in a month. Control of Lozova and Zelenyi Hai allows for a flanking support of the offensive on Borova from the direction of Kruhlyakivka, but the enemy has failed to break Ukrainian defenses near Zahryzove. The loss of Lozova could threaten this defense with encirclement.
• On the Siversk direction, the new commander of the enemy’s “Yug (South)” Operational Grouping Lieutenant General O. Sanchik, decided to immediately display activity and decisiveness by launching a series of attacks on the positions of Ukrainian Defense Forces simultaneously on four sectors: south of Vyimka, on Ivano-Dariivka, on Verkhnokamianske, and on Bilohorivka from the south. Between 36 to 45 assaults are being repelled daily.
• On the Kramatorsk direction, the enemy concentrated its efforts on a narrow section of the front opposite the refractory plant in Chasiv Yar, which it approached only from the southeast direction. The enemy broke through to the plant from the east and north, and battles for the industrial zone, a key point in the city’s defense, continue. If the enemy manages to capture the plant within the next 5-12 days, it will divide Ukrainian defenses, turning them into isolated strongholds. This will enable the enemy to bypass Ukrainian Defense Forces from the flanks and force them to retreat further west. South of Chasiv Yar, Ukrainian Defense Forces halted the enemy’s advance west of Klishchiivka and in the Andriivka area. If Ukrainian Defense Force units retreat from Chasiv Yar, defense of Andriivka will become almost impossible, as the threat of flanking it from the north will emerge.
• In Toretsk, heavy battles for each building continue. The enemy’s offensive in the “Zabalka” district has slowed due to losses. North of the “Tsentralna” mine, the enemy is unable to overcome Ukrainian defenses but continues to attack with small assault groups. After a two-week pause, the aggressor resumed assaults from the direction of New York towards Leonidivka.
• On the Pokrovsk direction, the 422nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 27th Motorized Rifle Division of the 2nd Combined Arms Army broke into Shevchenkove but failed to develop success. Ukrainian Defense Forces introduced reserves into the battle, which first pushed the enemy away from Pishchane and then from the area north of Shevchenkove through maneuver actions and swift counterattacks with powerful artillery support. The enemy also introduced additional forces into the battle near Shevchenkove, which managed to slowly advance towards Pishchane. The command of the enemy’s “Tsentr (Center)” Operational Grouping feared that a “Khortytsia” OSG counterattack at the base of the 433rd Motorized Rifle Regiment’s wedge could lead to the complete destruction of the regiment. As a result, additional forces were transferred to the Shevchenkove area from Novotroitske. The enemy is fighting for Zelene and attacking Lysivka. The offensive on Novotroitske and towards the Donetsk Oblast border to the west has slowed due to the redeployment of part of the forces to other sectors.
• On the Kurakhove direction, the occupiers broke through north of the village of Sukhi Yaly and captured Zelenivka. The enemy’s advance has slowed due to the terrain. The enemy is focusing on simultaneous attempts to break through further and expand the salient after capturing Zelenivka. If they manage to reach the highway and are supported by an attack from the Pokrovsk direction towards Dachne, the tactical group of Ukrainian Defense Forces in Kurakhove and east of Konstyantynopil and Dachne will be encircled. It should be noted that the enemy lacks the forces and means to establish a reliable encirclement front. Kurakhove is expected to be captured in the coming days. Battles on the Daleke – Uspenivka – Romanivka – Yelyzavetivka bridgehead and fighting in Kurakhove have significantly weakened the Russian grouping and bought several weeks to organize the defense (or prepare a counterattack) of the “Khortytsia” OSG 15-17 km further west. The enemy’s losses and the time spent will have an impact on the winter battles in this direction.
• The enemy’s activity on the Vremivka direction is linked to the desire of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces to report the capture of Kurakhove and Velyka Novosilka by the New Year and to reach, at least on a narrow section, the border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

• There were 250 combat engagements on various fronts.
• On the Kharkiv direction, there was a combat engagement in the area of Vovchansk.
• On the Kupyansk direction, there were 26 attacks. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled enemy assault actions near Petropavlivka, Kolisnykivka, and Lozova.
• On the Lyman direction, the enemy launched 24 attacks near Hrekivka, Novoyehorivka, Nadiya, Yampolivka, and Terny.
• On the Siversk direction, Ukrainian defenders repelled 5 attempts by the enemy to attack their positions near Verkhnokamianske.
• On the Kramatorsk direction, the enemy attempted to advance 5 times in the area of Chasiv Yar, Hryhorivka, and in the direction of Bila Hora.
• On the Toretsk direction, the enemy launched 13 attacks near Toretsk, Dyliivka, and Shcherbynivka.
• On the Pokrovsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 48 assault actions in the areas of Myrolyubivka, Promin, Lysivka, Dachenske, Zelene, Novovasylivka, Chumatske, and Novoolenivka. The occupiers, with air support, tried to dislodge Ukrainian units from their positions.
• On the Kurakhove direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 25 attacks near Sontsivka, Stari Terny, Kurakhove, and Dachne, where the enemy attempted to break through Ukrainian defense.
• On the Vremivka direction, the enemy carried out 25 assault actions near Konstyantynopolske, Rozlyv, Velyka Novosilka, Blahodatne, Novyi Komar, and Storozhove.
• On the Orikhiv direction, the occupier attempted to break through to Novoandriivka but was repelled.
• On the Prydniprovskyi direction, 5 combat engagements occurred with the enemy in the island zone of the Dnipro Delta. The enemy was unsuccessful.
• In Kursk Oblast, Ukrainian Defense Forces continue their operation repelling 68 enemy attacks.
• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
  • Mediterranean Sea: 6 ships, including 3 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 25 cruise missiles.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

• Units of the 5th Separate Tank Brigade of the 36th Combined Arms Army, the 33rd and 255th Motorized Rifle Regiments of the 20th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Combined Arms Army, and the 68th Tank Regiment of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Combined Arms Army operate near Kurakhove. The 39th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 68th Army Corps is active near Ostrivske.
• The 1472nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 68th Army Corps operates near Konstyantynopolske.

Possible operation situation developments:

• On the Kupyansk direction, the enemy will make efforts to expand its bridgehead in the Dvorichna area.
• On the Kramatorsk direction, the “Khortytsia” OSG units will be forced to retreat to the Kostyantynivka area if the enemy reaches the Chervone–Stupochky line and simultaneously launches an offensive northward at the junction of its 41st and 51st Combined Arms Armies from the Novooleksandrivka–Arkhanhelske line, advancing to the Yablunivka–Oleksandro-Kalynove line on the Toretsk direction. If the Chasiv Yar Refractory Materials Plant is lost, it will be under enemy control by the end of December.
• On the Pokrovsk direction, a withdrawal of the “Donetsk” OTG to the Ukrainka – Andriivka – Rozlyv – Novoocheretuvate line is expected. The length of the line of contact will be reduced, thereby tightening the combat formations of the operational-tactical group.
• If the enemy advances to the area where the Vovcha and Solona rivers converge near Dachne from the north, the position of Ukrainian Defense Forces units in Kurakhove will become critically complicated unless they manage to retreat in time.
• On the Vremivka direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces will have to completely withdraw from the villages liberated during the 2023 offensive, located south of Velyka Novosilka, namely Makarivka, Neskuchne, and Storozhove.
• By the end of the current year, the enemy will not succeed in seizing the “belt of fortresses” Kostyantynivka – Druzhkivka – Kramatorsk – Sloviansk or occupying Donetsk Oblast. The upcoming battle for Pokrovsk will mark the apex of the enemy’s offensive operation in the Southwestern Theater of Operations in 2024.
• The enemy’s military command in the theater of operations until March 2025 will be creating conditions to achieve the military-political goal of the “Special Military Operation”: reaching the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts and the junction of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Donetsk Oblasts near the village of Temyrivka.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 19.12.24

Personnel – almost 768,220 (+1,530);

Tanks 9,576 (+5);

Armored combat vehicles – 19,799 (+27);

Artillery systems – 21,178 (+14);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,256 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 1,026 (+1);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 31,678 (+68);

Aircraft – 369 (0);

Helicopters – 329 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 20,521 (+51);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,943 (0)

Boats/ships – 29 (0).

Humanitarian + general:

• On the night of December 19, Russian forces launched an attack on Ukraine using two “Iskander-M” ballistic missiles, a guided aviation missile (Kh-59/69), and 85 “Shahed” strike drones, as well as drones of other types. As of 8:30 a.m., 45 strike drones were confirmed to have been shot down. An additional 40 enemy decoy drones were lost from radar tracking. As a result of the missile strike, private and multi-story residential buildings, as well as municipal property, were damaged in Sumy and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. Preliminary reports indicate no casualties or injuries.
• The Russian army continues hunting civilians in the Kherson Oblast. As a result of drone attacks on Kherson and Antonivka on December 19, three people were injured. A 42-year-old man from Sadove was taken to one of the Kherson hospitals. After 12:00 p.m., he was hit by an enemy drone attack.
• On December 19, Russian forces attacked Shevchenkove and Dvorichna in the Kupyansk district of Kharkiv Oblast. As a result of the enemy shelling, three people were killed, and four others were wounded.
• Throughout December 19, Russian forces attacked the Nikopol district of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast 30 times. Six people were injured as a result of the attacks. Infrastructure, businesses, a high school, 7 apartment buildings, and 10 private houses were damaged. Additionally, 2 farm buildings, 3 garages, a greenhouse, 4 cars, 5 stores, and a power line were damaged.
• Around 11:00 p.m. on December 18, the Ukrainian Air Force reported high-speed targets heading toward Kryvyi Rih, and explosions were heard. The central collectors, electricity, and trolley lines were disrupted. Numerous residential buildings sustained damage, and a hospital was also affected.
• On the evening of December 18, after 9:00 p.m., the city of Romny in Sumy Oblast was hit by a missile strike from the enemy. Nine residential buildings were damaged as a result.
• On the evening of December 18, as a result of enemy shelling of the border areas of Chernihiv Oblast, a police officer and a teenager were injured. The police officer is reported to be in critical condition.

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