Russia’s war on Ukraine. 21.12.24

On the Kursk direction, Russian forces advanced near Malaya Loknia to the west and attempted to advance in the area of Cherkasskya Konopelka.

The “Siversk” OTG counterattacked near Novoivanovka and Daryino.

North Korean units conduct combat operations in the area of Plekhovo, Russkaya Konopelka, and Ulanok.

On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces advanced on the northern outskirts of Zahryzove, attempt to bypass Dvorichna from the north, and hold positions in forests on the western bank of the Oskil River, north of Dvorichna.

The enemy advanced in the areas of Synkivka, Lyman Pershyi, Petropavlivka, Lozova, Kolisnykivka, Hlushkivka, Zelenyi Hai, Kopanka, and Tverdokhlibove.

On the Lyman direction, Russian forces attacked Ivanivka, Terny, Yampolivka, Torske, and the area of the Serebriansk Forest.

On the Siversk direction, Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked in the areas of Bilohorivka, Hryhorivka, and Verkhnokamianske.

On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces began an offensive in the “Novyi” neighborhood from the north; battles continue for the refractory materials plant in the center of Chasiv Yar.

On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces made minor advances toward Ukrainska and Haharin Streets in Toretsk, in the Zabalka district.

Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked north of the spoil heap of the “Tsentralna” mine.

Fighting continued near Shcherbynivka and Leonidivka.

On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces are attempting to advance to the eastern outskirts of Solone, the northern outskirts of Novoolenivka, and the eastern outskirts of Ukrainsk. Fighting continued in the areas of Myrolyubivka, Promin, Lysivka, Zelene, Dachenske, Novyi Trud, Solone, Novovasylivka, Novooleksiivka, Vovkove, Pishchane, and Sukha Balka.

On the Kurakhove direction, Russian forces continue fighting for the area of high-rise buildings in the western part of Kurakhove, conducting constant assaults from Stari Terny toward Shevchenkove to create conditions for advancing on Dachne and further blockading the H15 highway (Kurakhove–Pokrovsk), advancing toward Hihant and Yantarne, and have reached the southern outskirts of Ulakli.

The enemy attacked near Kurakhove, Sontsivka, Stari Terny, toward Andriivka, Bahatyr, Rozlyv, near Dachne and Dalnie, and captured positions in the area of Uspenivka–Konstyantynopolske.

On the Vremivka direction, Russian forces advanced toward Storozhove from positions in Blahodatne and Makarivka, near Rivnopil, Rozdolne, and within Novo Komar, and attacked near Velyka Novosilka, Blahodatne, Neskuchne, Makarivka, Novopil, Novodarivka, and Novosilka.

On the Orikhiv direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked from Kamianske to Luhove and regained lost positions.

Russian forces attacked near Mala Tokmachka and Novodanylivka.

On the Prydniprovskyi direction, Russian forces conducted combat operations in the area of Kozatskyi Island. Enemy reconnaissance and sabotage groups attempted to cross the Dnipro River near the Antonivskyi Bridge but were detected and destroyed. Over the past week, enemy units have been attempting to cross the Dnipro in the Kherson area.

General conclusion:

• The command of the enemy’s “Tsentr (Center)” Operational Grouping is regrouping its strike tactical groups on the Pokrovsk direction.
• The majority of the enemy’s strategic reserves are engaged in Kursk Oblast, as well as on the Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Vremivka directions.
• The command of the enemy’s “Vostok (East)” Operational Grouping is concentrating efforts on the Vremivka and Kurakhove directions, primarily in the operational zones of the 5th, 36th, and 29th Combined Arms Armies, which are tasked with two primary objectives: cutting off the Kurakhove bridgehead and capturing the area of Velyka Novosilka–Vremivka.
• On the Orikhiv direction, the enemy is active only within the tactical zone. Its actions are limited in scope, primarily to the north of Robotyne, towards Novodanylivka, and south of the Zaporizhzhia–Mariupol highway, southwest of Novopokrovka. The nature of their activities includes reconnaissance groups and localized skirmishes over observation posts.
• The enemy has intensified activity on the Prydniprovskyi direction.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

• There were 211 combat engagements on various fronts.
• On the Kharkiv direction, there was a combat clash with Russian invaders near Vovchansk.
• On the Kupyansk direction, the enemy conducted 11 attacks. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled Russian assaults in the areas of Kucherivka, Synkivka, Petropavlivka, Zahryzove, and Lozova.
• On the Lyman direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces stopped 16 enemy attacks. The invaders concentrated their main efforts in the areas of Yampolivka, Terny, Novoserhiyivka, Zelenyi Hai, Ivanivka, Torske, Hryhorivka, and the Serebriansk Forest.
• On the Kramatorsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled six enemy attempts to advance in the vicinity of Chasiv Yar.
• On the Toretsk direction, the enemy attempted to breach the defense lines 11 times, near Toretsk and Leonidivka.
• Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 46 attacks on the Pokrovsk direction. The enemy attempted to advance near Myrolyubivka, Promin, Lysivka, Zelene, Novyi Trud, Dachenske, Vovkove, Pishchane, Novovasylivka, Novoelyzavetivka, Novooleksiivka, and Ukrainsk, actively using assault and bomber aviation.
• Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold back the enemy on the Kurakhove direction. The occupiers attempted 24 breakthroughs near Sontsivka, Stari Terny, Andriivka, Kurakhove, Dachne, Dalnie, Konstyantynopolske, and Konstyantynopil.
• On the Vremivka direction, the enemy launched 36 attacks in the areas of Uspenivka, Dalnie, Yantarne, Rozlyv, Bahatyr, Velyka Novosilka, Makarivka, Novosilka, Novopil, and Novodarivka
• On the Orikhiv direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces successfully repelled an enemy attempt to advance near Mala Tokmachka.
• The enemy carried out airstrikes on the Prydniprovskyi direction; in addition, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled four enemy assaults.
• On the Kursk direction, there were 50 combat clashes and nine enemy airstrikes.
• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
  • Black Sea: 3 ships, including 3 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 24 cruise missiles.
  • Mediterranean Sea: 6 ships, including 3 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 25 cruise missiles.
• A storm in the Black Sea sank 23 out of 34 barges of the protective structure of the Kerch Strait crossing.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

• The 27th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Tank Army operates near Kupyansk.
• The 255th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 20th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Combined Arms Army captured Uspenivka, while the 39th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 68th Army Corps took Konstyantynopolske and Trudove.
• The 37th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 36th Combined Arms Army and the 40th Separate Marines Brigade of the Pacific Fleet operate near Rozdolne and Novyi Komar.
• The 58th Combined Arms Army, operating on the Orikhiv direction, consists of 50–52,000 personnel, up to 360 tanks, 895 armored fighting vehicles of all types, 780 guns and mortars, 110 MLRS, and 12 Iskander tactical missile launchers.
• The 35th Combined Arms Army, consisting of the 38th and 64th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades, and the 69th Separate Motorized Rifle Regiment (with two battalions located in Kursk Oblast) is concentrated in the area of Huliaypole. The army comprises 22–25,000 personnel, up to 100 tanks, 290 armored fighting vehicles, 210 guns and mortars, and 90 multiple launch rocket systems.

Possible operation situation developments:

• On the Kupyansk direction, the enemy will make efforts to expand its bridgehead in the Dvorichna area.
• On the Kramatorsk direction, the “Khortytsia” OSG units will be forced to retreat to the Kostyantynivka area if the enemy reaches the Chervone–Stupochky line and simultaneously launches an offensive northward at the junction of its 41st and 51st Combined Arms Armies from the Novooleksandrivka–Arkhanhelske line, advancing to the Yablunivka–Oleksandro-Kalynove line on the Toretsk direction. If the Chasiv Yar Refractory Materials Plant is lost, it will be under enemy control by the end of December.
• On the Pokrovsk direction, a withdrawal of the “Donetsk” OTG to the Ukrainka – Andriivka – Rozlyv – Novoocheretuvate line is expected. The length of the line of contact will be reduced, thereby tightening the combat formations of the operational-tactical group. As soon as the enemy completes the formation of the southern flank of Pokrovsk’s envelopment with the forces of the 2nd Combined Arms Army, the 41st Combined Arms Army will launch an offensive towards Myrnohrad and Novoekonomichne to form the northern flank.
• If the enemy advances to the area where the Vovcha and Solona rivers converge near Dachne from the north, the position of Ukrainian Defense Forces units in Kurakhove will become critically complicated unless they manage to retreat in time.
• On the Vremivka direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces will have to completely withdraw from the villages liberated during the 2023 offensive, located south of Velyka Novosilka, namely Makarivka, Neskuchne, and Storozhove.
• On the Orikhiv direction, the enemy command may deploy an assault grouping consisting of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division, the 136th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, and the 503rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 19th Motorized Rifle Division of the 58th Combined Arms Army. Possible directions of advance may include Nesteryanka–Novoandriivka and Myrne–Shcherbaky. The objective may be to bypass the city of Orikhiv from the west, cut the logistical route between Orikhiv and Stepove, and create conditions for encircling the defensive positions of the “Tavria” Operational Strategic Group around Orikhiv from two sides simultaneously. The possibility of forming another assault grouping (forces of the 35th Combined Arms Army) cannot be ruled out, which could strike in the general direction of Myrne–Charivne, bypass Orikhiv from the east, or encircle the city from the north by breaking through to the village of Omelnyk.
• By the end of the current year, the enemy will not succeed in seizing the “belt of fortresses” Kostyantynivka – Druzhkivka – Kramatorsk – Sloviansk or occupying Donetsk Oblast. The upcoming battle for Pokrovsk will mark the apex of the enemy’s offensive operation in the Southwestern Theater of Operations in 2024.
• The enemy’s military command in the theater of operations until March 2025 will be creating conditions to achieve the military-political goal of the “Special Military Operation”: reaching the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts and the junction of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Donetsk Oblasts near the village of Temyrivka.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 21.12.24

Personnel – almost 772,280 (+1,860);

Tanks 9,594 (+10);

Armored combat vehicles – 19,841 (+18);

Artillery systems – 21,252 (+42);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,256 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 1,027 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 31,891 (+98);

Aircraft – 369 (0);

Helicopters – 329 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 20,685 (+85);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,947 (+4)

Boats/ships – 29 (0).

Humanitarian + general:

• Over the past week, Russia has used 550 aerial bombs, nearly 550 drones, and over 20 missiles against Ukraine, according to Zelenskyy.
• On the night of December 21, Russians attacked Ukraine with an S-400 missile and 113 drones, of which 57 were shot down, and 56 were “locationally lost.”
• During the night of December 21, Russian occupation forces launched an airstrike on an oncology dispensary in Kherson, firing two guided aerial bombs (KABs). While no patients or medical staff were harmed, the building sustained significant damage.
• On the morning of December 21, shelling in Kherson’s Korabelnyi district injured a 13-year-old girl. Additionally, Russians shelled Stanislav in the Kherson Oblast with artillery, injuring two people.
• On the night of December 20, enemy drones attacked Zaporizhzhia. Three women and a 12-year-old boy were injured. In one district of the city, the blast wave from a falling enemy drone shattered windows and damaged balconies of two nine-story residential buildings. A fire also broke out in an open area.
• On the night of December 21, Russian occupation forces launched an airstrike on an oncology dispensary in Kherson, releasing two guided aerial bombs (KABs). While patients and medical staff were unharmed, the building sustained significant destruction.
• Russian invaders attacked the border Oblasts of Chernihiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv 70 times in the past day using various types of weapons. A total of 168 explosions were recorded, damaging critical infrastructure, an administrative building, and a warehouse.
• In Kharkiv Oblast, eight civilians were injured in enemy shelling over the past day, including a 12-year-old girl.
• Since February 2022, the United Nations has officially recorded over 12,300 civilian deaths and more than 27,800 injuries in Ukraine due to Russian aggression. Most casualties among the civilian population have resulted from Russia’s use of long-range weaponry. In November, such attacks accounted for approximately 42% of civilian deaths and injuries, a significant increase compared to previous months.
• A special unit has been established within the Armed Forces of Ukraine to protect cultural heritage. This unit will operate as part of the civil-military cooperation structure and will coordinate efforts to protect, preserve, and prevent the destruction of cultural heritage sites threatened by hostilities. The unit will include military personnel with specialized education and experience in culture, archaeology, history, and museum work. One of its functions will be gathering evidence for the International Criminal Court.

Centre for Defence Strategies (CDS) is a Ukrainian security think tank. We operate since 2020. We publish this brief daily. If you would like to subscribe, please send us an email at cds.dailybrief@gmail.com

Please note, that we subscribe only verified persons and can decline or cancel the subscription at our own discretion

We are an independent, non-government, non-partisan, and non-profit organisation. More at www.defence.org.ua

Our Twitter (in English) – https://twitter.com/defence_centre Our Facebook (in Ukrainian) – https://www.facebook.com/cds.UA

Our brief is for information only and we verify our information to the best possible extent