Russia’s war on Ukraine. 23.12.24

On the Kursk direction, Russian forces advanced east of Kruglenkoe, continued assault actions in the areas of Novoivanovka, Malaya Loknia, Cherkasskoe Porechie, Pogrebki, and Martynovka.

On the Kharkiv direction, Russian forces unsuccessfully advanced in the areas of Kozacha Lopan, Hoptivka, Hlyboke, Vysoka Yaruha, and Vovchansk.

On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces were noted advancing on the southeastern outskirts of Dvorichna. They are fighting for Lozova, attempting to advance east of Zahryzove and near Kruhlyakivka, and attacked in the areas of Petropavlivka, Kucherivka, Stepova Novoselivka, Bohuslavka, Hrekivka, Novoyehorivka, Novoserhiyivka, Zelenyi Hai, and Nadiia.

On the Lyman direction, the enemy attacked near Ivanivka, Terny, Druzhelyubivka, Torske, and Dibrova.

On the Siversk direction, Russian forces advanced in the areas of Serebrianka, Bilohorivka, Verkhnokamianske, and Vyimka but made no progress.

On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces advanced near Chasiv Yar and Stupochky.

On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces advanced in the northern part of Toretsk and moved toward Druzhba and Sukha Balka.

On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces advanced in the western part of Dachenske and captured the village, advancing toward Pokrovsk, near Promin, Myrolyubivka, Lysivka, Zelene, Novyi Trud, Novoukrainka, Novovasylivka, Novoelyzavetivka, and Novoolenivka.

The 433rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 27th Motorized Rifle Division of the 2nd Combined Arms Army and the 228th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 90th Tank Division of the 41st Combined Arms Army advanced south of Pokrovsk to the Novotroitske–Shevchenko–Novyi Trud–Dachenske line and, supported by the 15th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Combined Arms Army, moved to hold this position.

Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked in the Pishchane–Shevchenkove and Zvirove–Shevchenko directions and slightly pushed back the enemy’s forward units.

On the Kurakhove direction, Russian forces advanced near Kurakhove, close to Sontsivka, Shevchenkove, Stari Terny, Dachne, Uspenivka, Konstyantynopil, Konstyantynopolske, Yantarne, Rozlyv, south of Zelenivka, and are approaching the power station west of Kurakhove.

The 428th and 87th Motorized Rifle Regiments and the 6th and 80th Tank Regiments of the 90th Tank Division of the 41st Combined Arms Army have slowed their advance and currently have no success on key tactical directions such as Sontsivka–Shevchenko (lower) and Zorya–Slovyanka. The division has suffered significant losses and cannot secure the area north of the Kurakhove Reservoir.

In Kurakhove, forward units of the 110th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 51st Combined Arms Army and parts of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Combined Arms Army of the enemy’s “Yug (South)” Operational Grouping reached the defense node of the “Khortytsia” OSG near the Kurakhove power station but made no progress.

Over the past three days, the 255th, 33rd, and 242nd Motorized Rifle Regiments of the 20th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Combined Arms Army, supported by the 39th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 68th Army Corps, have unsuccessfully attempted to collapse the “Khortytsia” OSG defense along the Sukhi Yaly River by attacking from the Dalnie–Uspenivka line westward.

On the Vremivka direction, Russian forces are advancing near Velyka Novosilka, Rozdolne, in the direction of Odradne, near Makarivka, Blahodatne, Neskuchne, Storozhove, Vremivka, and Novosilka, clearing areas southwest of Storozhove.

Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked near Rozdolne.

On the Orikhiv direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces regained lost positions in the center of Kamianske and pushed Russian units from the northern outskirts of Kamianske to the eastern bank of the Kakhovka Reservoir.

Russian forces attacked near Pyatykhatky and Novoandriivka.

On the Prydniprovskyi direction, Russian forces delivered heavy artillery and rocket strikes on Ukrainian Defense Forces’ positions and residential areas in Kherson Oblast on the right bank of the Dnipro River. They are attempting to deploy sabotage and reconnaissance groups in other areas, concentrating on the Kozatsky and Velykyi Potemkin islands.

General conclusion:

• The operational density of the 41st Combined Arms Army today allows for the deployment of only one such grouping—the northern one. The formation of the 74th Motorized Rifle Division as part of it is nearing completion. The 2nd Combined Arms Army, unlike the 41st, is forced to engage in active combat along an extended front, attempting to get as close as possible to Pokrovsk from the south, along the Novotroitske–Dachenske line, to ensure the stability of the southern salient. Part of its forces is trying to advance toward Pokrovsk from the east, launching periodic attacks in the areas of Mykolaivka and Lysivka.
• The enemy command in the theater of operations prioritizes active offensive actions specifically on the southern flank of the entire Kurakhove bridgehead.
• The offensive capabilities of the 90th Tank Division are negatively affected by the deployment of the 239th Motorized Rifle Regiment and elements of the 428th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 90th Tank Division to the Pushkyne–Ukrainka direction for an advance toward Yasne, as well as by a lack of personnel in assault units. To reinforce them, two rifle regiments have arrived in the 90th Tank Division’s area of operations.
• The “Khortytsia” OSG managed to push back some of the enemy’s forward units in the most threatening direction for the Kurakhove bridgehead—Zelenivka–Ulakli. However, the enemy continues to hold Zelenivka and threatens to cut the Donetsk–Zaporizhzhia highway near Ulakli.
• In the Konstyantynopolske–Zelenivka area, the “Khortytsia” OSG has almost completely retreated from the southern bank of the Sukhi Yaly River, retaining only a small bridgehead near Yantarne, which ensures the possibility of crossing the river. The enemy has fully captured Zelenivka, Sukhi Yaly, Konstyantynopolske, and Uspenivka.
• Today, on the Kurakhove direction, the main events are unfolding on the flanks of the “Khortytsia” OSG’s bridgehead. The course of events will depend on the Defense Forces’ ability to hold the defensive line along the Sukhi Yaly River and in the Rozlyv–Bahatyr direction, as well as the ability of the 90th Tank Division of the 41st Combined Arms Army to restore its combat capability. The battle for Kurakhove is not over, as the Kurakhove Thermal Power Plant area remains sufficiently advantageous for conducting a defense.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

• There were 234 combat engagements on various fronts.
• On the Kharkiv direction, the enemy carried out 7 assaults on the Ukrainian positions in the areas of Hoptivka, Hlyboke, Vysoka Yaruha, Buhruvatka, and Starytsia.
• On the Kupyansk direction, there were 7 Russian attacks. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled the enemy’s assaults near Kucherivka, Stepova Novoselivka, Bohuslavka, Zahryzove, and Nova Krystynivka.
• On the Lyman direction, the enemy carried out 36 attacks, attempting to break through the Ukrainian defense near Zelenyi Hai, Novoserhiyivka, Novoyehorivka, Hrekivka, Makiivka, Nadiia, Ivanivka, Terny, Toretsk, Hryhorivka, and towards Druzhelyubivka, Dibrova, and Serebrianka.
• On the Siversk direction, there were 12 clashes near Bilohorivka, Verkhnokamianske, Ivano-Dariivka, and Vyimka. For the assault operations in the direction of Verkhnokamianske, the enemy used armored vehicles, buggies, and motorcycles.
• On the Kramatorsk direction, the occupiers attacked 7 times in the areas of Vasyukivka, Chasiv Yar, and Stupochky.
• On the Toretsk direction, the enemy carried out 7 assaults in the areas of Toretsk and Druzhba.
• On the Pokrovsk direction. Ukrainian Defense Forces stopped 37 enemy attacks near Lysivka, Sukha Balka, Promin, Zelene, Ukrainka, Dachenske, Shevchenkove, Novoukrainka, Pokrovsk, Novovasylivka, Novoelyzavetivka, and Novoolenivka. The enemy used armored vehicles in an attempt to break through the Ukrainian defenses near Zelene, Dachenske, Shevchenkove, Novoelyzavetivka, and Novoolenivka. The enemy has failed and continues to accumulate forces.
• On the Kurakhove direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 30 attacks. The occupiers tried to advance in the areas of the settlements of Sontsivka, Stari Terny, Kurakhove, Yasenove, Dachne, and towards Andriivka. Fighting continues in the urban area of Kurakhove.
• On the Vremivka direction, the enemy carried out 44 assaults in the areas of Velyka Novosilka, Konstyantynopil, Yantarne, Uspenivka, Rozlyv, Rozdolne, Novosilka, Blahodatne, Vremivka, and towards the settlement of Bahatyr.
• On the Orikhiv direction, the enemy attacked 1 time near Nova Andriivka.
• On the Prydniprovskyi direction, Russian invaders attempted to push Ukrainian units from their positions 4 times but were met with a strong resistance and suffered losses.
• The operation in Kursk Oblast continues, with Ukrainian Defense Forces repelling 27 enemy attacks.
• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
  • Mediterranean Sea: 8 ships, including 3 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 25 cruise missiles.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

• Units of the 34th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 49th Combined Arms Army operate near Malaya Loknia and Pogrebki, although the brigade’s main forces have been observed on the Vremivka direction. The 83rd Separate Air Assault Brigade and the 22nd BARS detachment are active in Kursk Oblast.
• The 80th Separate Reconnaissance Battalion of the 51st Combined Arms Army operates near Toretsk, while the 9th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 51st Combined Arms Army is engaged in combat near New York.
• The main forces of the 27th Motorized Rifle Division, the 15th, 30th, and 137th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 41st Combined Arms Army, and the 61st Separate Marines Brigade of the Baltic Fleet are active on the main axis of the 2nd Combined Arms Army from Novohrodivka to Pokrovsk.
• The 39th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 68th Army Corps is engaged near Konstyantynopil.
• The 38th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 35th Combined Arms Army operates on the Polohy direction.

Possible operation situation developments:

• On the Kupyansk direction, the enemy will make efforts to expand its bridgehead in the Dvorichna area.
• On the Kramatorsk direction, the “Khortytsia” OSG units will be forced to retreat to the Kostyantynivka area if the enemy reaches the Chervone–Stupochky line and simultaneously launches an offensive northward at the junction of its 41st and 51st Combined Arms Armies from the Novooleksandrivka–Arkhanhelske line, advancing to the Yablunivka–Oleksandro-Kalynove line on the Toretsk direction. If the Chasiv Yar Refractory Materials Plant is lost, it will be under enemy control by the end of December.
• On the Pokrovsk direction, a withdrawal of the “Donetsk” OTG to the Ukrainka – Andriivka – Rozlyv – Novoocheretuvate line is expected. The length of the line of contact will be reduced, thereby tightening the combat formations of the operational-tactical group. As soon as the enemy completes the formation of the southern flank of Pokrovsk’s envelopment with the forces of the 2nd Combined Arms Army, the 41st Combined Arms Army will launch an offensive towards Myrnohrad and Novoekonomichne to form the northern flank.
• If the enemy advances to the area where the Vovcha and Solona rivers converge near Dachne from the north, the position of Ukrainian Defense Forces units in Kurakhove will become critically complicated unless they manage to retreat in time. On the Zelenivka–Ulakli and Yasna Polyana–Rozlyv directions, the enemy may additionally deploy the main forces of the 39th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade and part of the forces of the 57th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 5th Combined Arms Army of the “Vostok (East)” Operational Grouping, which had previously been held in reserve by this grouping’s command.
• On the Vremivka direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces will have to completely withdraw from the villages liberated during the 2023 offensive, located south of Velyka Novosilka, namely Makarivka, Neskuchne, and Storozhove.
• On the Orikhiv direction, the enemy command may deploy an assault grouping consisting of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division, the 136th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, and the 503rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 19th Motorized Rifle Division of the 58th Combined Arms Army. Possible directions of advance may include Nesteryanka–Novoandriivka and Myrne–Shcherbaky. The objective may be to bypass the city of Orikhiv from the west, cut the logistical route between Orikhiv and Stepove, and create conditions for encircling the defensive positions of the “Tavria” Operational Strategic Group around Orikhiv from two sides simultaneously. The possibility of forming another assault grouping (forces of the 35th Combined Arms Army) cannot be ruled out, which could strike in the general direction of Myrne–Charivne, bypass Orikhiv from the east, or encircle the city from the north by breaking through to the village of Omelnyk.
• By the end of the current year, the enemy will not succeed in seizing the “belt of fortresses” Kostyantynivka – Druzhkivka – Kramatorsk – Sloviansk or occupying Donetsk Oblast. The upcoming battle for Pokrovsk will mark the apex of the enemy’s offensive operation in the Southwestern Theater of Operations in 2024.
• The enemy’s military command in the theater of operations until March 2025 will try to reach the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts and the junction of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Donetsk Oblasts near the village of Temyrivka thus achieving the military-political goal of the “Special Military Operation”, namely occupation of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 23.12.24

Personnel – almost 776,090 (+1,990);

Tanks 9,615 (+6);

Armored combat vehicles – 19,885 (+15);

Artillery systems – 21,313 (+29);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,256 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 1,030 (+3);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 32,039 (+67);

Aircraft – 369 (0);

Helicopters – 329 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 20,790 (+55);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,948 (+1)

Boats/ships – 29 (0).

Humanitarian + general:

• On the night of December 23, Russian occupiers attacked Ukraine with 72 Shahed-type strike UAVs and drones of other types. As of 9:00 AM, 47 enemy drones were destroyed, and the others were location-lost.
• During the night attack by the occupiers in Khmelnytskyi Oblast, equipment was damaged at an enterprise, and one person was injured; in Kyiv Oblast, power lines were damaged. In another area of Kyiv Oblast, 4 private houses, a garage, and 3 cars were damaged. There were no hits on critical or residential infrastructure.
• During the day on December 23, Russians dropped two KABs on Stepnohirsk in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. As a result of the attack, a five-story building was damaged, a one-story house caught fire, and a woman was injured.
• Around 13:15, Russian occupation forces attacked from UAVs in Kizomys in Kherson Oblast. A 65-year-old man was hit by the enemy strike. The victim suffered blast injuries and shrapnel wounds to the back and leg.
• The Ministry of Internal Affairs reviewed the list previously published by Russian ombudsman Tatyana Moskalkova, which allegedly contained the names of 630 Ukrainian prisoners of war. Among them are people who have already returned from captivity, civilians, and individuals whose presence in Russia was not previously known. The Russian side has not officially proposed an exchange through official channels.
• When thinking about their future, 55% of Ukrainians feel hope, while 45% feel anxiety, according to the results of the survey “Results of 2024: In Expectation of a Just Peace?” conducted by the Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation together with the Razumkov Center’s sociological service from November 29 to December 14, 2024.
• 69% of Ukrainians believe that joining the European Union would be the best integration direction for Ukraine. Another 18% of respondents believe that Ukraine should not join any union. 1% of those surveyed still support joining the Eurasian Customs Union with Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan.
• The survey also showed that 47% of Ukrainians are ready to support Ukraine’s NATO membership, even if some Ukrainian territories remain occupied by Russia.

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