Russia’s war on Ukraine. 29.12.24

On the Kursk direction, Russian forces are attempting to advance near Nikolaevo-Daryino, Marievka, and in the forests of the Sudzha district.

On the Kharkiv direction, Russian forces continued unsuccessful attacks near Vovchansk.

On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces advanced in the areas of Petropavlivka, Lozova, Hlushkivka, toward Novoplatonivka, near Pershotravneve, Kopanka, Novoyehorivka, and Nadiya.

On the Lyman direction, Russian forces advanced to the eastern outskirts of Terny, attacked near Makiivka, Hrekivka, Torske, Zarichne, Dibrova, Platonivka, and the Serebriansk Forest area.

On the Siversk direction, Russian forces made minor advances south of Vyimka and advanced in the area of Bilohorivka.

On the Kramatorsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled assaults in the areas of Klishchiivka and Kurdyumivka.

Russian forces advanced in the “Pivnichnyi” neighborhood, continued assaults near Chasiv Yar, and attacked near Bila Hora, Predtechyne, Stupochky, and Dyliivka.

On the Toretsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces reclaimed positions in the central and northern parts of Toretsk.

Russian forces advanced along Rudnychna Street in Toretsk, stormed the central part of the city near the “Tsentralna” mine, the Central Market, and the “Avanhard” stadium, and attacked in the area of Shcherbynivka.

On the Pokrovsk direction, units of the 35th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 41st Combined Arms Army attacked east of Dachenske, the 74th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade attacked near Shevchenkove (Upper), and the 137th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade attacked near Mykolaivka.

With left-flank units of the 27th Motorized Rifle Division of the 2nd Combined Arms Army (433rd and 506th Motorized Rifle Regiments), the enemy attempted to advance toward Pishchane-Kotlyne and in the direction of Zvirove. The 239th and 80th Tank Regiments, along with the 228th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 90th Tank Division of the 41st Combined Arms Army, cooperating with the 27th Motorized Rifle Division of the 2nd Combined Arms Army, attacked along a broad front in the directions of Novotroitske–Novovasylivka, Novotroitske–Solone, Novoolenivka–Novoelyzavetivka, and Ukrainka–Yasenove, making some advances but achieving no significant results.

On the Kurakhove direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces hold the line along the Mokri Yaly River but have fully withdrawn from the southern bank of the bridgehead near Yantarne, thereby aiding the retention of the remaining Kurakhove bridgehead.

Enemy forces from units and formations of the 29th and 8th Combined Arms Armies and the 68th Army Corps, reinforced by elements of the 114th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 51st Combined Arms Army (under the “Tsentr (Center)” Operational Grouping) and the 57th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 5th Combined Arms Army (under the “Vostok (East)” Operational Grouping), are attempting to break the defense of the “Khortytsia” OSG along the line of Zelenivka–Uspenivka (Lower)–Trudove–Maksymivka while simultaneously attacking Ukrainian positions in the areas of Zelenivka, Mokri Yaly, Konstyantynopolske, and Uspenivka. The enemy has not achieved success.

On the northern flank of the Kurakhove bridgehead, the 110th and 5th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 51st Combined Arms Army attacked in the general direction of Stari Terny–Shevchenko (Lower), advancing to the Solona River but failing to reach Shevchenkove.

The 6th Tank Regiment, 428th Motorized Rifle Regiment, and the 67th and 87th Separate Motorized Rifle Regiments of the 90th Tank Division, after a minor regrouping, resumed intense attacks on the directions of Zoria–Slovyanka and Sontsivka–Petropavlivka.

On the Vremivka direction, the 114th, 394th, and 218th Motorized Rifle Regiments of the 127th Motorized Rifle Division of the 5th Combined Arms Army persistently attacked west of the Mokri Yaly River, attempting to outflank Neskuchne and Vremivka from the west and southwest with the aim of cutting the Velyka Novosilka–Uspenivka road in the Novosilka–Vremivka sector.

On the Orikhiv direction, Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked near Bilohirya.

Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked near Kamyanka.

On the Prydniprovskyi direction, Russian forces conducted a series of unsuccessful local attacks.

General conclusion:

• During the 2024 offensive campaign, the Russian grouping in the Southwestern Theater of Operations achieved only three operational objectives: splitting the “Khortytsia” Operational Strategic Grouping’s (OSG) bridgehead along the Oskil River into two parts, eliminating the Vuhledar bridgehead, and advancing from Avdiivka to Pokrovsk. The enemy command did not accomplish any strategic objectives.
• On the Lyman direction, Russian forces conducted an assault for the first time in about a month, with notable improvements in the preparation and equipping of their assault groups.
• The “Khortytsia” OSG conducted 25 counterattacks in Luhansk Oblast over the past week.
• On the Pokrovsk direction, the command of the enemy’s “Tsentr (Center)” Operational Grouping continues its offensive south of Pokrovsk, utilizing forces from the 2nd Combined Arms Army and part of the 90th Tank Division of the 41st Combined Arms Army. It has also begun to gradually involve additional units and formations of the 41st Combined Arms Army from adjacent sectors.
• The command of the enemy’s “Tsentr (Center)” Operational Grouping seeks to maximize its penetration south of Pokrovsk to create a favorable staging area for further concentration and deployment of its strike forces, which would subsequently assault the city from the south and attempt to outflank it from the southwest. Intense fighting is underway for Novovasylivka, Uspenivka (Upper), and Solone. Ukrainian Defense Forces attempt to hold the enemy’s advance at the maximum distance south of the city limits, successfully defending along the Novooleksandrivka–Novoelyzavetivka line and further south in the Yasenove area. These actions limit the enemy’s ability to expand its penetration from the west. Fighting remains extremely fierce—the reinforced 90th Tank Division took more than 1.5 weeks to capture the Novotroitske–Ukrainka line.
• On the Kurakhove direction, the enemy persistently tries to break into the rear of the “Khortytsia” OSG and cut the Donetsk–Zaporizhzhia highway not only from the south (via the Mokri Yaly River) but also from the north. These attempts are held back by the “Khortytsia” OSG steadfast defense the Slovyanka–Shevchenko (Lower) line. Over the past two weeks, the enemy has managed to advance by only 1.5 km near Stari Terny and expand its tactical penetration near Sontsivka by up to 2.5 km across a 1-km depth. Frontal pressure continues from the enemy’s 20th and 150th Motorized Rifle Divisions of the 8th Combined Arms Army and the 5th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 51st Combined Arms Army, targeting both the Kurakhove salient itself and the Dalnie–Dachne direction. The 150th Motorized Rifle Division cannot capture the Kurakhove TPP, while the 20th Motorized Rifle Division is advancing slowly westward from Dalnie, sustaining heavy losses.
• On the Vremivka direction, the “Khortytsia” OSG’s actions are complicated by the following factors: due to the enemy’s capture of the Novyi Komar and Rozdolne areas, retreating northward is impossible. Maneuvering westward along the front is also hampered by the actions of the enemy’s 127th Motorized Rifle Division, including the risk of cutting the road to Uspenivka. The most likely withdrawal route involves moving northwest toward the villages of Burlatske and Pryvilne, which is a challenging maneuver requiring the crossing of the wide Mokri Yaly River near Velyka Novosilka, followed by movement through highly rugged terrain with limited road infrastructure.
• The enemy attempts to conduct intensive tactical-level offensive actions simultaneously in three operational zones with the intent of escalating them to the operational level: the Pokrovsk, Kurakhivka, and Vremivka directions.
• In January, the Russian General Staff’s Main Organizational and Mobilization Directorate expects a decline in volunteer numbers but plans to compensate for the shortfall by recruiting contract soldiers from among conscripts. By January, up to 40,000 individuals conscripted in the fall are planned to be transferred to contract service, with an additional 25,000 planned for February.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

• There were 158 combat engagements on various fronts.
• On the Kharkiv direction, three combat engagements with Russian invaders took place near Vovchansk.
• On the Kupyansk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled four enemy attacks in the areas of Hlushkivka and Lozova.
• On the Lyman direction, the number of combat engagements reached 21. The occupiers concentrated their main efforts in the areas of Hrekivka, Pershotravneve, Nadiya, Tverdokhlibove, Terny, Kopanky, Novoyehorivka, Novoplatonivka, and Makiivka.
• On the Kramatorsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 14 enemy attempts to advance near Stupochky and Chasiv Yar.
• On the Toretsk direction, the enemy made seven attempts to penetrate Ukrainian defenses in the areas of Toretsk and Shcherbynivka.
• The hottest fighting occurred on the Pokrovsk direction, where Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 54 attacks. The enemy attempted to advance near Zelene Pole, Kalynove, Uspenivka, Vovkove, Novoelyzavetivka, Vozdvyzhenka, Myrolyubivka, Promin, Lysivka, Dachenske, Zelene, Pokrovsk, Novyi Trud, Pershe Travnya, and Shevchenko.
• On the Kurakhove direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold back the enemy. In the areas of Petropavlivka, Ukrainka, Kurakhove, and Dachne, the occupiers made 22 attempts to breach Ukrainian defensive lines.
• On the Vremivka direction, the invaders attacked 15 times in the areas of Konstyantynopolske, Velyka Novosilka, Vremivka, and Yantarne.
• On the Prydniprovskyi direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled an attack by Russian invaders.
• On the Kursk direction, the enemy carried out a coordinated missile strike. Nine combat engagements occurred.
• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
  • Black Sea: 1 ship, including 1 cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 0 cruise missiles.
  • Mediterranean Sea: 8 ships, including 3 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 26 cruise missiles.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

• Units of the 16th Separate SOF Brigade operate near Olgovka.
• The 9th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade and the 80th Separate Reconnaissance Battalion “Sparta” of the 51st Combined Arms Army are engaged on the Toretsk direction.
• The 127th Reconnaissance Brigade of the 22nd Army Corps and the 81st Self-Propelled Artillery Regiment of the 70th Motorized Rifle Division of the 18th Combined Arms Army are active on the Kherson direction.

Possible operation situation developments:

• On the Kramatorsk direction, the “Khortytsia” OSG units will be forced to retreat to the Kostyantynivka area if the enemy reaches the Chervone–Stupochky line and simultaneously launches an offensive northward at the junction of its 41st and 51st Combined Arms Armies from the Novooleksandrivka–Arkhanhelske line, advancing to the Yablunivka–Oleksandro-Kalynove line on the Toretsk direction. If the Chasiv Yar Refractory Materials Plant is lost, it will be under enemy control by the end of December.
• On the Pokrovsk direction, a withdrawal of the “Donetsk” OTG to the Ukrainka – Andriivka – Rozlyv – Novoocheretuvate line is expected. The length of the line of contact will be reduced, thereby tightening the combat formations of the operational-tactical group. As soon as the enemy completes the formation of the southern flank of Pokrovsk’s envelopment with the forces of the 2nd Combined Arms Army, the 41st Combined Arms Army will launch an offensive towards Myrnohrad and Novoekonomichne to form the northern flank.
• On the Pokrovsk and Kurakhove directions, the enemy’s command will face the dilemma of simultaneously capturing Pokrovsk and compressing the Kurakhove bridgehead without disrupting the combat formations of the 90th Tank Division or transferring additional elements of the 51st Combined Arms Army from the Toretsk direction or regrouping the 8th Combined Arms Army to this area.
• The overall enemy intent regarding the capture of the “Khortytsia” OSG defense area in Velyka Novosilka may look as follows: the 36th Combined Arms Army (composed of the 37th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, 5th Separate Tank Brigade, and the attached 60th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 5th Combined Arms Army) creates frontal pressure along the eastern bank of the Mokri Yaly River and from the east in the directions of Blahodatne – Velyka Novosilka, Zolota Nyva – Velyka Novosilka, and Shakhtarske – Velyka Novosilka, aiming to tie down the main forces of the Ukrainian grouping defending in the area in question as much as possible. Simultaneously, the 40th Separate Marines Brigade of the Pacific Fleet and the 336th Separate Marines Brigade of the Baltic Fleet break through north of the village and seize two roads leading north from Velyka Novosilka. The 5th Combined Arms Army (comprising the 127th Motorized Rifle Division and the 34th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade) advances in the area of Rivnopil – Storozhove in a northern direction towards the Velyka Novosilka – Uspenivka road, cutting it off and bypassing the entire “Khortytsia” OSG defense area in Velyka Novosilka from the southwest and west.
• On the Orikhiv direction, the enemy command may deploy an assault grouping consisting of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division, the 136th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, and the 503rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 19th Motorized Rifle Division of the 58th Combined Arms Army. Possible directions of advance may include Nesteryanka–Novoandriivka and Myrne–Shcherbaky. The objective may be to bypass the city of Orikhiv from the west, cut the logistical route between Orikhiv and Stepove, and create conditions for encircling the defensive positions of the “Tavria” Operational Strategic Group around Orikhiv from two sides simultaneously. The possibility of forming another assault grouping (forces of the 35th Combined Arms Army) cannot be ruled out, which could strike in the general direction of Myrne–Charivne, bypass Orikhiv from the east, or encircle the city from the north by breaking through to the village of Omelnyk.
• The enemy’s military command in the south-western theater of operations until March 2025 will try to reach the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts and the junction of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Donetsk Oblasts near the village of Temyrivka thus achieving the military-political goal of the “Special Military Operation”, namely occupation of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 29.12.24

Personnel – almost 785,930 (+1,730);

Tanks 9,656 (+5);

Armored combat vehicles – 19,981 (+11);

Artillery systems – 21,450 (+42);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,256 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 1,032 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 32,410 (+82);

Aircraft – 369 (0);

Helicopters – 329 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 21,038 (+25);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 3,003 (0)

Boats/ships – 29 (0).

Humanitarian + general:

• Ukrainian Air defense forces shot down 9 out of 10 Russian drones launched on the night of December 29. All UAVs were launched from Crimea and were downed over Mykolaiv Oblast. Meanwhile, the occupiers struck Kursk and Sumy Oblasts with S-300/S-400 missiles, none of which were intercepted.
• At 00:50 on the night of December 29, the enemy attacked the Chornomorska community in Mykolaiv Oblast with Shahed 131/136 drones. One struck an unused building. Additionally, debris caused a fire in an administrative building at an energy infrastructure site. A 49-year-old employee of the facility was injured; his condition is satisfactory.
• On December 28, Russian occupiers shelled a residential area in the city of Pokrovsk, Donetsk Oblast, hitting a residential house and causing a fire. Rescuers were once again subjected to repeated enemy shelling during fire suppression efforts.
• Around 12:00 on December 29, Russian forces attacked a civilian car with a drone in the village of Tyahynka, Beryslav Raion, Kherson Oblast. A man was killed after explosives were dropped. At noon, Russian forces also dropped explosives from a drone on a woman in Stanislav, Kherson Oblast. She suffered explosive trauma and a shrapnel injury to her leg.
• In the Marhanets community, Nikopol Raion, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, a kamikaze drone strike injured three people, two of whom were hospitalized. A 77-year-old man is in critical condition, and a 38-year-old woman with explosive trauma was also taken to a medical facility.
• On December 29, Russian forces conducted artillery shelling on the village of Zahryzove in the Borivska amalgamated territorial community, Izium Raion, Kharkiv Oblast, injuring two people.

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