Russia’s war on Ukraine. 30.12.24

On the Kursk direction, Russian forces repelled a “Siversk” Operational-Tactic Group (OTG) attack near Kruglenkoe.

On the Kharkiv direction, Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked near Khatyshche and Vovchansk.

On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces attacked near Petropavlivka, Kucherivka, Lozova, Hlushkivka, in the direction of Novoplatonivka, and near Zelenyi Hai, Pershotravneve, Kopanka, Novoyehorivka, and Nadiia.

On the Lyman direction, units of the 144th Motorized Rifle Division of the 20th Combined Arms Army attempted to advance on the southern outskirts of Terny. The enemy attacked near Tverdokhlibove, Ivanivka, Makiivka, Hrekivka, Torske, Yampolivka, Zarichne, Dibrova, Platonivka, and the Serebriansk Forest.

On the Siversk direction, Russian forces continued unsuccessful offensive operations.

On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces attempted to advance toward Chernyshevsky Street and the railway station in Chasiv Yar, attacking near Stupochky. Fighting continued near the refractory materials plant.

Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked near the Siverskyi Donets–Donbas canal and the “Novyi” neighborhood.

On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces attempted to advance in Toretsk but failed. The enemy attacked in the Shcherbynivka area.

On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces advanced in the industrial zone on the eastern outskirts of Pishchane and on the eastern outskirts of Novoelyzavetivka. They attempted to advance north and south of Novoelyzavetivka, between Novoelyzavetivka and Novovasylivka, near Promin and Myrolyubivka, and attacked near Pokrovsk, Zelenyi Pole, Vozdvyzhenka, Myrolyubivka, Promin, Kalynove, Lysivka, Dachenske, Novyi Trud, Shevchenkove, Pershe Travnya, Vovkove, Solone, Novoolenivka, Novovasylivka, Novoelyzavetivka, and Uspenivka.

“Khortytsia” OSG forces counterattacked near Pishchane and Uspenivka.

On the Kurakhove direction, Russian forces captured Shevchenkove and advanced to the outskirts of Petropavlivka, near Zelenivka, and to Rozlyv. They attacked near Kurakhove, the Kurakhove thermal power plant, Ukrainka, Slovyanka, Petropavlivka, Dachne, Uspenivka, Konstyantynopolske, Yantarne, and Konstyantynopil.

On the Vremivka direction, Russian forces attacked near Velyka Novosilka, Neskuchne, Vremivka, and Pryvilne, advancing east along the O0510 Velyka Novosilka – Huliaypole highway reaching a line 3 kilometers from Vremivka.

On the Orikhiv direction, Russian forces made slight advances toward the center of Kamianske.

On the Prydniprovskyi direction, Russian forces continued advancing on the islands in the Dnipro River delta, including Velykyi Potemkin Island, but without success.

General conclusion:

• Russian forces on the Kursk direction use less armored equipment but have significantly intensified sabotage and reconnaissance activities.
• Several Chechen servicemen from the “West-Akhmat” battalion attacked a Russian Armed Forces military police checkpoint in Golovchino (southwest of Belgorod) following a dispute over vehicle documentation, highlighting ongoing tensions between Chechens and other ethnic groups within the Russian Armed Forces.
• Fighting has intensified east of Pokrovsk near Myrnohrad.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

• There were 186 combat engagements on various fronts.
• On the Kharkiv direction, two enemy attacks occurred near Khatyshche and Vovchansk. Both attacks were repelled, and the enemy failed.
• On the Kupyansk direction, seven Russian attacks took place. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled the enemy’s assault actions near Petropavlivka, Kucherivka, and Lozova.
• On the Lyman direction, the enemy attacked 27 times, attempting to advance near Hrekivka, Zelenyi Hai, Platonivka, Pershotravneve, Nadiia, Makiivka, Terny, Novoserhiyivka, Yampolivka, Ivanivka, and Bilohorivka.
• On the Siversk direction, the enemy made a futile attempt to displace Ukrainian Defense Forces from their positions near Zolotarivka.
• On the Kramatorsk direction, the occupiers conducted nine attacks in the area of Chasiv Yar and in the direction of Stupochky.
• On the Toretsk direction, the enemy launched six attacks near Shcherbynivka and Toretsk.
• On the Pokrovsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces halted 43 Russian assault and offensive actions in the areas of Zelenyi Pole, Vozdvyzhenka, Myrolyubivka, Promin, Lysivka, Dachenske, Novyi Trud, Vovkove, Solone, Novoolenivka, Novovasylivka, Shevchenkove, Kotlyne, and Novoelyzavetivka.
• On the Kurakhove direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 20 attacks. The enemy concentrated its main efforts near Ukrainka, Slovyanka, Petropavlivka, Kurakhove, and Dachne.
• On the Vremivka direction, the enemy conducted 20 assaults near Konstyantynopolske, Yantarne, Uspenivka, Konstyantynopil, and Pryvilne, employing bomber aviation for strikes.
• On the Prydniprovskyi direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces successfully repelled two Russian attacks.
• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
  • Black Sea: 1 ship, including 1 cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 0 cruise missiles.
  • Mediterranean Sea: 8 ships, including 3 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 26 cruise missiles.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

• The 11th Separate Air Assault Brigade operates in Cherkasskya Konopelka.
• The 1194th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 7th Military Base of the 49th Combined Arms Army operates near Chasiv Yar.

Possible operation situation developments:

• On the Kramatorsk direction, the “Khortytsia” OSG units will be forced to retreat to the Kostyantynivka area if the enemy reaches the Chervone–Stupochky line and simultaneously launches an offensive northward at the junction of its 41st and 51st Combined Arms Armies from the Novooleksandrivka–Arkhanhelske line, advancing to the Yablunivka–Oleksandro-Kalynove line on the Toretsk direction. If the Chasiv Yar Refractory Materials Plant is lost, it will be under enemy control by the end of December.
• On the Pokrovsk direction, a withdrawal of the “Donetsk” OTG to the Ukrainka – Andriivka – Rozlyv – Novoocheretuvate line is expected. The length of the line of contact will be reduced, thereby tightening the combat formations of the operational-tactical group. As soon as the enemy completes the formation of the southern flank of Pokrovsk’s envelopment with the forces of the 2nd Combined Arms Army, the 41st Combined Arms Army will launch an offensive towards Myrnohrad and Novoekonomichne to form the northern flank.
• On the Pokrovsk and Kurakhove directions, the enemy’s command will face the dilemma of simultaneously capturing Pokrovsk and compressing the Kurakhove bridgehead without disrupting the combat formations of the 90th Tank Division or transferring additional elements of the 51st Combined Arms Army from the Toretsk direction or regrouping the 8th Combined Arms Army to this area.
• The overall enemy intent regarding the capture of the “Khortytsia” OSG defense area in Velyka Novosilka may look as follows: the 36th Combined Arms Army (composed of the 37th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, 5th Separate Tank Brigade, and the attached 60th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 5th Combined Arms Army) creates frontal pressure along the eastern bank of the Mokri Yaly River and from the east in the directions of Blahodatne – Velyka Novosilka, Zolota Nyva – Velyka Novosilka, and Shakhtarske – Velyka Novosilka, aiming to tie down the main forces of the Ukrainian grouping defending in the area in question as much as possible. Simultaneously, the 40th Separate Marines Brigade of the Pacific Fleet and the 336th Separate Marines Brigade of the Baltic Fleet break through north of the village and seize two roads leading north from Velyka Novosilka. The 5th Combined Arms Army (comprising the 127th Motorized Rifle Division and the 34th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade) advances in the area of Rivnopil – Storozhove in a northern direction towards the Velyka Novosilka – Uspenivka road, cutting it off and bypassing the entire “Khortytsia” OSG defense area in Velyka Novosilka from the southwest and west.
• On the Orikhiv direction, the enemy command may deploy an assault grouping consisting of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division, the 136th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, and the 503rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 19th Motorized Rifle Division of the 58th Combined Arms Army. Possible directions of advance may include Nesteryanka–Novoandriivka and Myrne–Shcherbaky. The objective may be to bypass the city of Orikhiv from the west, cut the logistical route between Orikhiv and Stepove, and create conditions for encircling the defensive positions of the “Tavria” Operational Strategic Group around Orikhiv from two sides simultaneously. The possibility of forming another assault grouping (forces of the 35th Combined Arms Army) cannot be ruled out, which could strike in the general direction of Myrne–Charivne, bypass Orikhiv from the east, or encircle the city from the north by breaking through to the village of Omelnyk.
• The enemy’s military command in the south-western theater of operations until March 2025 will try to reach the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts and the junction of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Donetsk Oblasts near the village of Temyrivka thus achieving the military-political goal of the “Special Military Operation”, namely occupation of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 30.12.24

Personnel – almost 787,940 (+2,010);

Tanks 9,663 (+7);

Armored combat vehicles – 20,003 (+22);

Artillery systems – 21,494 (+44);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,256 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 1,032 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 32,551 (+141);

Aircraft – 369 (0);

Helicopters – 329 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 21,069 (+31);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 3,003 (0)

Boats/ships – 29 (0).

Humanitarian + general:

• During the night of December 30, Russia launched 43 “Shahed” drones and other types of attack drones against Ukraine. Air defense forces destroyed 21 of them. Additionally, 22 enemy drone decoys were lost locationally (without negative consequences). In Kharkiv and Odesa Oblasts, falling debris from downed drones damaged private homes.
• Occupiers struck Kupyansk District in Kharkiv Oblast during the day on Monday. In the village of Kivsharivka, a woman walking on the street was killed by shelling.
• In the morning, Russian forces attacked workers and equipment of municipal enterprises in Kherson using drones. Some workers sustained minor injuries, and equipment requires repairs.
• In Kherson, a 52-year-old man was injured by an enemy drone attack on December 30. The victim sustained mine-blast injuries and shrapnel wounds. Russian forces also shelled the village of Bilozerka in Kherson Oblast, injuring a 63-year-old woman.
• Around 9:30 PM (on December 29), residents of Antonivka in Kherson Oblast were targeted by an enemy drone strike that injured a 62-year-old man and his wife.
• Following a new exchange of prisoners of war on Monday, December 30, Ukraine secured the return of 189 of its defenders. This marked the eleventh such exchange in 2024.
• President Volodymyr Zelensky appointed human rights advocate Olha Reshetylova as the military ombudsman. The 39-year-old Reshetylova is a journalist, human rights advocate, volunteer, and head of the “Media Initiative for Human Rights.”
• In Ukraine, there is a sustained trend of decreasing optimism about the country’s future. At the end of 2022, 88% believed Ukraine would be a prosperous EU country in 10 years. By December 2023, this figure had dropped to 73%, and by December 2024, it was down to 57%. Meanwhile, the share of those who believe Ukraine will have a ruined economy has increased from 5% to 28%, according to a survey conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology in December.
• Kremlin propaganda is actively disseminating claims in the information space that Ukraine is preparing to “destroy its gas transportation system” to prevent Russian gas supplies to the EU, the Center for Countering Disinformation reported. The Center emphasized that such accusations could serve as information cover for Russian provocations against Ukraine’s gas transportation system.
• Since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, the number of fields available for harvest in Ukraine has decreased by 20%. Despite this, Ukraine still produces three times more food than it consumes. Regarding grain and oilseed crops, Ukrainian products continue to hold a leading position on the global market, stated Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food Vitalii Koval.
• The Ministry of Justice has restored the operation of the first three key notarial registries, which had been suspended due to a large-scale cyberattack by Russia.

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