Russia’s war on Ukraine. 31.12.24

On the Kursk direction, Russian forces advanced on the northeastern outskirts of Makhnovka and captured Cherkasskya Konopelka. The 11th Separate Air Assault Brigade is engaged in combat for the village of Agronom.

Ukrainian Defense Forces carried out a missile strike on the Lgov loading station during the loading of a military echelon.

On the Kharkiv direction, Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked near Lyptsi, Khatyshche, and Vovchansk.

On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces advanced near Holubivka, Petropavlivka, Kucherivka, Zahryzove, Lozova, Stepova Novoselivka, Kruhlyakivka, Hrekivka, Zelenyi Hai, Kopanka, Pershotravneve, and Nadiya.

The commander of one of the Russian assault units ordered the mining of fields near Stelmakhivka to prevent the 423rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 4th Tank Division, 1st Tank Army, from retreating from forward positions. The practice of extrajudicial executions of Russian servicemen refusing to participate in combat continues.

On the Lyman direction, Russian forces fight for Ivanivka and Terny and have attacked near Makiivka, Yampolivka, and Platonivka.

On the Siversk direction, Russian forces unsuccessfully advanced near Bilohorivka and Zolotarivka.

On the Kramatorsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces regained lost positions in the center of Chasiv Yar and advanced to Heorhii Dubrovskyi Street.

Russian forces advanced into the “Tenth” neighborhood, are fighting for the railway station in the northwest of Chasiv Yar, attacked near Stupochky, and are attempting to secure positions on Chernyshevskyi Street in the “Pivnichny” neighborhood, where Ukrainian Defense Forces conducted two counterattacks.

On the Toretsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces regained lost positions on Hryhorii Skovoroda Street in the northwest of Toretsk.

Russian forces advanced in Toretsk along Hirskyi, Travneva, Istorychna, Koksova, and Zhytomyrska Streets, in the spoil tip area in the western part of the city, in the “Zabalka” neighborhood, and attacked near Shcherbynivka. Fighting continues near spoil tips No. 1 and No. 10 near the Toretsk mine in the north of Toretsk.

On the Pokrovsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces reclaimed positions east of Pishchane. Forward units of the 110th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade and parts of the 5th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 51st Army advanced toward Stari Terny–Shevchenko.

The 27th Motorized Rifle Division and the 90th Tank Division expanded their flanks south of Pokrovsk. Specifically, the 329th and 80th Tank Regiments, 228th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 90th Tank Division, supported by the 433rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 27th Motorized Rifle Division, reinforced by the 67th and 87th Rifle Regiments of Mobilization Reserve and units of the 74th and 55th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades, advanced toward Pishchane–Kotlyne and further developed their tactical success toward Novoolenivka–Novoelyzavetivka.

Russian forces advanced northwest of Dachenske, west of Pishchane, northwest of Pokrovsk toward Baranivka, and west of Vovkove, capturing most of Novoelyzavetivka. They attacked toward Kotlyne and in the areas of Vozdvyzhenka, Myrolyubivka, Promin, Zelene, Lysivka, Novyi Trud, Shevchenkove, Solone, Novovasylivka, and Ukrainka.

On the Kurakhove direction, Russian forces made minor advances northwest of Kurakhove, in the western part of Sontsivka, near Shevchenkove and Petropavlivka, east of Yantarne, and northwest of Uspenivka. They continued assaults in Kurakhove, near the Kurakhove Thermal Power Plant, and toward Dachne, Konstyantynopolske, and Konstyantynopil.

On the Vremivka direction, Russian forces advanced west of Velyka Novosilka and attacked in the areas of Vremivka, Novosilka, Pryvilne, Novodarivka, and Neskuchne.

On the Orikhiv direction, localized combat clashes continued near Kamianske.

General conclusion:

• Russian forces attack urban areas of Chasiv Yar, cross the Siverskyi Donets–Donbas canal, and subsequently attempt to assault the refractory materials plant in the city center. Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to control this tactically significant defensive area. The intensity of enemy shelling near the plant has somewhat decreased.
• The situation south of Pokrovsk is deteriorating for Ukrainian Defense Forces. Enemy forward units actively attacking near Pishchane, Shevchenko (Upper), and Dachenske clearly attempt to establish forward positions as close to the city as possible for a future assault. The enemy’s 90th Tank Division is expanding this bridgehead with active operations in the directions of Novoolenivka–Novoelyzavetivka and Novotroitske–Novovasylivka. Novovasylivka is expected to be occupied shortly.
• Russian forces attempt to encircle and capture Velyka Novosilka and advance to the junction of Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

• There were 168 combat engagements on various fronts.
• On the Kharkiv direction, two enemy attacks were repelled in the areas of Vovchansk and Lyptsi.
• On the Kupyansk direction, 16 Russian assaults took place. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled enemy assaults near Holubivka, Stepova Novoselivka, Kruhlyakivka, and Zahryzove.
• On the Lyman direction, the enemy launched 22 attacks, attempting to advance near Kopanky, Nadiia, Novoyehorivka, Makiivka, Ivanivka, and Terny.
• On the Siversk direction, the enemy attempted a single assault to dislodge Ukrainian defenders from positions near Bilohorivka.
• On the Kramatorsk direction, he occupiers attacked 12 times in the areas of Chasiv Yar and Stupochky.
• On the Toretsk direction, the enemy carried out 12 attacks near Toretsk and Shcherbynivka.
• On the Pokrovsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces stopped 40 Russian assault and offensive actions in the areas of Vozdvyzhenka, Myrolyubivka, Promin, Zelenе, Dachenske, Novyi Trud, Shevchenko, Vovkove, Novoolenivka, and Novoelyzavetivka.
• On the Kurakhove direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 21 attacks. The enemy focused its main efforts in the areas of Petropavlivka, Slovyanka, Shevchenko, and Kurakhove.
• On the Vremivka direction, the enemy carried out 17 assaults near Yantarne, Uspenivka, Vremivka, and in the direction of Konstyantynopil and Novosilka.
• On the Orikhiv direction, the enemy attempted to advance twice in the direction of Novoandriivka.
• On the Prydniprovskyi direction, Russian occupiers attacked three times, faced fierce resistance, and suffered losses.
• On the Kursk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 17 attacks by the Russian army.
• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
  • Black Sea: 1 ship, including 1 cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 0 cruise missiles.
  • Mediterranean Sea: 8 ships, including 3 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 26 cruise missiles.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

• The 132nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 51st Army is engaged in combat operations in Toretsk.

Possible operation situation developments:

• On the Kramatorsk direction, the “Khortytsia” OSG units will be forced to retreat to the Kostyantynivka area if the enemy reaches the Chervone–Stupochky line and simultaneously launches an offensive northward at the junction of its 41st and 51st Combined Arms Armies from the Novooleksandrivka–Arkhanhelske line, advancing to the Yablunivka–Oleksandro-Kalynove line on the Toretsk direction. If the Chasiv Yar Refractory Materials Plant is lost, it will be under enemy control by the end of December.
• On the Pokrovsk direction, a withdrawal of the “Donetsk” OTG to the Ukrainka – Andriivka – Rozlyv – Novoocheretuvate line is expected. The length of the line of contact will be reduced, thereby tightening the combat formations of the operational-tactical group. As soon as the enemy completes the formation of the southern flank of Pokrovsk’s envelopment with the forces of the 2nd Combined Arms Army, the 41st Combined Arms Army will launch an offensive towards Myrnohrad and Novoekonomichne to form the northern flank.
• On the Pokrovsk and Kurakhove directions, the enemy’s command will face the dilemma of simultaneously capturing Pokrovsk and compressing the Kurakhove bridgehead without disrupting the combat formations of the 90th Tank Division or transferring additional elements of the 51st Combined Arms Army from the Toretsk direction or regrouping the 8th Combined Arms Army to this area.
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• On the Kurakhove direction, the enemy is likely to attempt to encircle Ukrainian Defense Forces’ units in the Kurakhove salient. To achieve this, they may simultaneously deploy the 110th and 5th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 51st Army, as well as the 36th, 114th, and 57th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades, to break through from the north and south toward Ulakly along the Shevchenko (lower)–Ulakly and Zelenivka– Ulakly directions. If the enemy succeeds, all units of the “Khortytsia” OSG currently defending the area around Kurakhove, the Kurakhove Thermal Power Plant, Dachne, and along the Sukhyi Yaly River east of Zelenivka will find themselves encircled. The enemy also has the potential to deepen the encirclement by attempting to attack not only westward toward Ulakly but also toward Andriivka.
• The overall enemy intent regarding the capture of the “Khortytsia” OSG defense area in Velyka Novosilka may look as follows: the 36th Combined Arms Army (composed of the 37th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, 5th Separate Tank Brigade, and the attached 60th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 5th Combined Arms Army) creates frontal pressure along the eastern bank of the Mokri Yaly River and from the east in the directions of Blahodatne – Velyka Novosilka, Zolota Nyva – Velyka Novosilka, and Shakhtarske – Velyka Novosilka, aiming to tie down the main forces of the Ukrainian grouping defending in the area in question as much as possible. Simultaneously, the 40th Separate Marines Brigade of the Pacific Fleet and the 336th Separate Marines Brigade of the Baltic Fleet break through north of the village and seize two roads leading north from Velyka Novosilka. The 5th Combined Arms Army (comprising the 127th Motorized Rifle Division and the 34th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade) advances in the area of Rivnopil – Storozhove in a northern direction towards the Velyka Novosilka – Uspenivka road, cutting it off and bypassing the entire “Khortytsia” OSG defense area in Velyka Novosilka from the southwest and west.
• On the Orikhiv direction, the enemy command may deploy an assault grouping consisting of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division, the 136th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, and the 503rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 19th Motorized Rifle Division of the 58th Combined Arms Army. Possible directions of advance may include Nesteryanka–Novoandriivka and Myrne–Shcherbaky. The objective may be to bypass the city of Orikhiv from the west, cut the logistical route between Orikhiv and Stepove, and create conditions for encircling the defensive positions of the “Tavriya” Operational Strategic Group around Orikhiv from two sides simultaneously. The possibility of forming another assault grouping (forces of the 35th Combined Arms Army) cannot be ruled out, which could strike in the general direction of Myrne–Charivne, bypass Orikhiv from the east, or encircle the city from the north by breaking through to the village of Omelnyk.
• The enemy’s military command in the south-western theater of operations until March 2025 will try to reach the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts and the junction of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Donetsk Oblasts near the village of Temyrivka thus achieving the military-political goal of the “Special Military Operation”, namely occupation of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 31.12.24

Personnel – almost 789,550 (+1,610);

Tanks 9,668 (+5);

Armored combat vehicles – 20,030 (+27);

Artillery systems – 21,528 (+34);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,256 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 1,032 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 32,626 (+75);

Aircraft – 369 (0);

Helicopters – 329 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 21,081 (+12);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 3,003 (0)

Boats/ships – 29 (0).

Humanitarian + general:

• On the night of December 31, Russian forces attacked Kyiv with drones and ballistic missiles. In Kyiv Oblast, there were damages due to the fall of debris from downed Russian drones and missiles, and a woman was injured. In Kyiv, the fall of missile debris was recorded in the Darnytskyi district, damaging three private buildings and two cars.
• On December 31, Russian forces launched a missile strike on the infrastructure of the Shostka community in Sumy Oblast, resulting in the destruction of infrastructure, damage to residential buildings, educational institutions, and social facilities. The mayor of Shostka, Mykola Noga, stated that today’s strike with 13 missiles was the largest bombardment of this city, with the attack carried out in two waves—at 3 and 8 in the morning.
• On December 31, the Russian army attacked a minibus taxi in Kherson with a drone: the driver was injured. At the time of the attack, four people were in the vehicle.
• Russian forces shelled residential buildings in the village of Tekstylny in the Dnipro district of Kherson Oblast, causing destruction.
• On December 30, Russian forces launched 2,910 strikes on Donetsk Oblast, damaging civilian objects, including residential buildings.
• In 2024, 449 children have returned to Ukrainian-controlled territory, among them five who recently managed to leave temporarily occupied territories with their mothers as part of the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s initiative, Bring Kids Back UA.
• Due to Russian shelling of civilian infrastructure in Ukraine, 1,222 kindergartens have been damaged, 121 of which have been completely destroyed.
• Since the start of recruitment centers’ operations, over 32,000 Ukrainians have applied, of which 7,198 are already considered candidates for the Defense Forces.
• Mobile brigades in three cars are traveling through villages in occupied Luhansk Oblast, trying to force local residents to accept Russian passports.

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