Russia’s war on Ukraine. 01.01.25

On the Kursk direction, the “Siversk” Operational Tactical Group (OTG) units captured Kruglenkoe, taking positions in the villages previously held by North Korean and Russian forces. Ukrainian Defense Forces also advanced east of Pogrebki along the 38K-024 road.

Russian forces advanced from Russkaya Konopelka to Agronom, where they are currently attacking, and to the outskirts of Makhnovka.

On the Kharkiv direction, Russian forces attacked toward Kozacha Lopan, near Lyptsi, and Vovchansk but failed to advance.

On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces assaulted near Nova Kruhlyakivka and attacked near Holubivka, Zahryzove, Lozova, Stepova Novoselivka, Kruhlyakivka, Zelenyi Hai, Kopanka, Pershotravneve, Novoyehorivka, and Nadiia.

On the Lyman direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces advanced on the northern outskirts of Terny, but Russian forces advanced on the southern outskirts. The enemy attacked near Makiivka, Ivanivka, Druzhelyubivka, Cherneshchyna, Novoserhiyivka, Dibrova, Hryhorivka, and Yampolivka.

On the Siversk direction, Russian forces are fighting for Ivano-Dariivka, attempting to advance toward the reservoir east of Siversk and along the railway south of Vyimka. They also attacked near Bilohorivka.

On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces advanced to Lermontova Street in Chasiv Yar, attacking near Stupochky, Predtechyne, and Bila Hora.

On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces attacked near Toretsk and Shcherbynivka and carried out an assault toward Leonidivka.

On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces captured Novoelyzavetivka and are fighting for Vozdvyzhenka and Vovkove. They attempted to advance along the railway toward Chunyshyne and continued their offensive in the areas of Myrolyubivka, Zelene Pole, Promin, near Myrnohrad, and around Zelene, Lysivka, Dachenske, Novyi Trud, Zelenyi, Shevchenkove, Vovkove, Kotlyne, Solone, Pishchane, Novovasylivka, Novoolenivka, Novovasylivka, and Ukrainka.

On the Kurakhove direction, the 5th and 110th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 51st Combined Arms Army advanced to the western outskirts of the Kurakhove Thermal Power Plant from positions in Stari Terny and are attempting to encircle Ukrainian forces at the plant and near the industrial zone. Russian forces continued to push Ukrainian Defense Forces from remaining positions in Kurakhove. Fighting persisted near Petropavlivka, Ukrainka, Shevchenkove, Slovyanka, Dachne, Konstyantynopolske, Yantarne, Uspenivka, and Konstyantynopil. Deploying the forces from the 5th, 110th, and 114th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 51st Combined Arms Army, the 36th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 29th Combined Arms Army, and the 57th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 5th Combined Arms Army, the enemy is attempting to advance toward Ulakly from Shevchenkove in the north and Zelenivka from the south.

Ukrainian Defense Forces hold fortified positions along the western bank of the Kurakhove Reservoir.

On the Vremivka direction, Russian forces continued their offensive in the areas of Velyka Novosilka, Rozlyv, Novodarivka, Neskuchne, Vremivka, and Novosilka but were unsuccessful.

On the Orikhiv direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked north of Robotyne.

Russian forces advanced in the area of Novoandriivka.

General conclusion:

• Over the course of the year, Russian forces captured 4,168 square kilometers, losing an average of 102 servicemen for every square kilometer of Ukrainian territory seized. Of the captured territories, 56.5% were taken between September and November.
• The slow advance of the Russian “Tsentr (Center)” Operational Grouping in early and mid-2024 prompted the Russian military command to revise the main direction of their offensive and designate the capture of Pokrovsk as the primary objective by the end of 2024.
• In total, in 2024, Ukrainian Defense Forces shot down 1,300 Russian missiles of various types, 11,200 attack drones, 3,200 reconnaissance drones, 40 aircraft, and 6 helicopters.
• The “Khortytsia” OSG units can hold positions in the central part of the Kurakhove Thermal Power Plant (TPP), as the industrial zone facilitates defensive operations. The enemy may attempt to bypass the TPP by advancing south of Stari Terny, which would complicate logistics for Ukrainian units and hinder their eventual withdrawal.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

• There were 191 combat engagements on various fronts.
• On the Kharkiv direction, there was one enemy attack near Vovchansk.
• On the Kupyansk direction, there were seven Russian attacks. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled enemy assault operations in the directions of Lozova, Nova Kruhlyakivka, and Zahryzove.
• On the Lyman direction, the enemy attacked 19 times, attempting to advance near Nadiia, Pershotravneve, Zelenyi Hai, Novoyehorivka, Yampolivka, Terny, Dibrova, and in the directions of Druzhelyubivka, Cherneshchyna, and Novoserhiyivka.
• On the Siversk direction, the enemy attempted eight assaults to dislodge Ukrainian Defense Forces from positions near Bilohorivka and Hryhorivka but failed.
• On the Kramatorsk direction, there were 32 Russian assault actions in the areas of Chasiv Yar, Stupochky, Bila Hora, and Predtechyne.
• On the Toretsk direction, the enemy carried out 13 attacks in the areas of Shcherbynivka, Bila Hora, and Toretsk.
• On the Pokrovsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces stopped 57 assault and offensive actions by the aggressor toward Zelene Pole, Baranivka, Novotoretske, Promin, Lysivka, Myrnohrad, Kotlyne, Solone, Shevchenko, Novooleksandrivka, Dachenske, Zelene, Novyi Trud, Vovkove, Pishchane, and Novovasylivka.
• On the Kurakhove direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 20 enemy assaults. The main enemy offensive efforts were concentrated near Petropavlivka, Dachne, Ukrainka, Shevchenko, and Kurakhove.
• On the Vremivka direction, the enemy carried out 11 assaults near Konstyantynopolske, Dachne, Rozlyv, Velyka Novosilka, and Neskuchne.
• On the Orikhiv direction, the occupiers made three futile attempts to push Ukrainian defenders from their positions near Novoandriivka.
• On the Prydniprovskyi direction, Russian occupiers attacked three times but, after suffering losses, retreated.
• On the Kursk direction, the “Siversk” OTG repelled 13 enemy attacks.
• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
  • Black Sea: 1 ship, including 1 cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 0 cruise missiles.
  • Mediterranean Sea: 8 ships, including 3 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 26 cruise missiles.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

• The 16th Separate Special Purpose Brigade operates near Hrekivka.
• The 80th and 329th Tank Regiments, the 228th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 90th Tank Division, the 55th and 74th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 41st Combined Arms Army, and the 433rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 27th Motorized Rifle Division of the 2nd Combined Arms Army operate in the Pishchane – Kotlyne and Novoolenivka – Novoelyzavetivka sectors.
• The 255th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 20th Motorized Rifle Division and the 68th Tank Regiment of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Combined Arms Army are active near Kurakhove.
• The 238th Artillery Brigade of the 8th Combined Arms Army operates near Ulakly.
• The 14th Separate Special Purpose Brigade operates near Velyka Novosilka.

Possible operation situation developments:

• On the Kramatorsk direction, the “Khortytsia” OSG units will be forced to retreat to the Kostyantynivka area if the enemy reaches the Chervone–Stupochky line and simultaneously launches an offensive northward at the junction of its 41st and 51st Combined Arms Armies from the Novooleksandrivka–Arkhanhelske line, advancing to the Yablunivka–Oleksandro-Kalynove line on the Toretsk direction. If the Chasiv Yar Refractory Materials Plant is lost, it will be under enemy control by the end of December.
• On the Pokrovsk direction, a withdrawal of the “Donetsk” OTG to the Ukrainka – Andriivka – Rozlyv – Novoocheretuvate line is expected. The length of the line of contact will be reduced, thereby tightening the combat formations of the operational-tactical group. As soon as the enemy completes the formation of the southern flank of Pokrovsk’s envelopment with the forces of the 2nd Combined Arms Army, the 41st Combined Arms Army will launch an offensive towards Myrnohrad and Novoekonomichne to form the northern flank.
• On the Pokrovsk and Kurakhove directions, the enemy’s command will face the dilemma of simultaneously capturing Pokrovsk and compressing the Kurakhove bridgehead without disrupting the combat formations of the 90th Tank Division or transferring additional elements of the 51st Combined Arms Army from the Toretsk direction or regrouping the 8th Combined Arms Army to this area.
• On the Kurakhove direction, the enemy is likely to attempt to encircle Ukrainian Defense Forces’ units in the Kurakhove salient. To achieve this, they may simultaneously deploy the 110th and 5th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 51st Army, as well as the 36th, 114th, and 57th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades, to break through from the north and south toward Ulakly along the Shevchenko (lower)–Ulakly and Zelenivka– Ulakly directions. If the enemy succeeds, all units of the “Khortytsia” OSG currently defending the area around Kurakhove, the Kurakhove Thermal Power Plant, Dachne, and along the Sukhyi Yaly River east of Zelenivka will find themselves encircled. The enemy also has the potential to deepen the encirclement by attempting to attack not only westward toward Ulakly but also toward Andriivka.
• The overall enemy intent regarding the capture of the “Khortytsia” OSG defense area in Velyka Novosilka may look as follows: the 36th Combined Arms Army (composed of the 37th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, 5th Separate Tank Brigade, and the attached 60th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 5th Combined Arms Army) creates frontal pressure along the eastern bank of the Mokri Yaly River and from the east in the directions of Blahodatne – Velyka Novosilka, Zolota Nyva – Velyka Novosilka, and Shakhtarske – Velyka Novosilka, aiming to tie down the main forces of the Ukrainian grouping defending in the area in question as much as possible. Simultaneously, the 40th Separate Marines Brigade of the Pacific Fleet and the 336th Separate Marines Brigade of the Baltic Fleet break through north of the village and seize two roads leading north from Velyka Novosilka. The 5th Combined Arms Army (comprising the 127th Motorized Rifle Division and the 34th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade) advances in the area of Rivnopil – Storozhove in a northern direction towards the Velyka Novosilka – Uspenivka road, cutting it off and bypassing the entire “Khortytsia” OSG defense area in Velyka Novosilka from the southwest and west.
• On the Orikhiv direction, the enemy command may deploy an assault grouping consisting of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division, the 136th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, and the 503rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 19th Motorized Rifle Division of the 58th Combined Arms Army. Possible directions of advance may include Nesteryanka–Novoandriivka and Myrne–Shcherbaky. The objective may be to bypass the city of Orikhiv from the west, cut the logistical route between Orikhiv and Stepove, and create conditions for encircling the defensive positions of the “Tavriya” Operational Strategic Group around Orikhiv from two sides simultaneously. The possibility of forming another assault grouping (forces of the 35th Combined Arms Army) cannot be ruled out, which could strike in the general direction of Myrne–Charivne, bypass Orikhiv from the east, or encircle the city from the north by breaking through to the village of Omelnyk.
• The enemy’s military command in the south-western theater of operations until March 2025 will try to reach the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts and the junction of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Donetsk Oblasts near the village of Temyrivka thus achieving the military-political goal of the “Special Military Operation”, namely occupation of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 01.01.25

Personnel – almost 790,800 (+1,250);

Tanks 9,672 (+4);

Armored combat vehicles – 20,043 (+13);

Artillery systems – 21,532 (+4);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,256 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 1,032 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 32,675 (+49);

Aircraft – 369 (0);

Helicopters – 330 (+1);

UAV operational and tactical level – 21,131 (+50);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 3,003 (0)

Boats/ships – 29 (0).

Humanitarian + general:

• During the night of January 1, Russia launched an attack on Ukraine with 111 strike UAVs, including Shahed drones and others. Ukrainian air defense destroyed 63 drones, while another 46 failed to reach their targets.
• On the morning of January 1, debris from an enemy drone fell on a residential building in Kyiv’s Pecherskyi district, partially destroying the top two floors and causing a fire. As a result of the Russian attack, two people died, and six were injured. Drone debris also caused a fire on the roof of one of the National Bank of Ukraine buildings. All operational systems and services of the National Bank are functioning fully and without disruption.
• Two hours before the New Year in 2025, at least two explosions were heard in Zaporizhzhia during an air raid alert. The attack caused a fire in the private sector in the region. Before this, the occupiers attacked the area using guided bombs.
• On January 1, Russian forces shelled the Dnipro district of Kherson, killing a man and injuring two women. The man was a volunteer who actively contributed to the community’s recovery efforts.
• In Kherson Oblast, Russian shelling on January 1 damaged at least 22 civilian objects. As of 5:30 PM, reports confirm one fatality and six injured civilians.
• During the New Year’s night, Russian forces shelled the center of the town of Semenivka in Chernihiv Oblast with artillery, damaging stores and an infrastructure facility.
• Between September and November 2024, 574 civilians were killed, and 3,082 were injured as a result of Russian attacks in Ukraine, according to a report from the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine.
• On January 1, 2025, Ukraine officially became a full member of the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court (ICC).
• According to the Center for National Resistance, in the occupied territories, Russian authorities banned the mention of Saint Nicholas, caroling, and traditional Ukrainian Christmas and New Year plays (vertep) in educational institutions. Only the characters of Ded Moroz (Father Frost) and Snegurochka (Snow Maiden) are allowed to appear at events.

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