Centre for Defence Strategies

SECURITY THREATS

We look at the government decision making, policies and reforms in a greater strategic context: enabling Ukraine’s prosperity and welfare of its people, building national defence capabilities, and protecting Ukraine’s national interests.
 
We explore defence sector issues as part of these goals. Threats to Ukraine’s national security have a direct impact on the life of its people, on Ukraine’s sovereignty and development. Although the threats are primarily connected to the war in eastern Ukraine, they are not limited to it. Very palpable threats are emerging in the Black Sea region. Some adversary hybrid operations are implemented daily in the information and cyber spheres, as well as in the economic, energy, diplomatic and legal domains.
 
Ukraine’s priority task is to stabilize its security situation, return its temporarily occupied territories, and secure the grounds for economic growth, attracting investment, and fostering national development. Ukraine’s strategic goal is to become a member of the EU and NATO.
 
How can Ukraine achieve these goals?
 
We provide answers to these questions.

DEFENCE RESOURCES

The Ministry of Defence of Ukraine manages an enormous number of assets, such as state-owned enterprises, property, and hundreds of thousands of hectares of land. Many of these resources are not used to increase defence capabilities. Traditionally, managing the assets of the Ministry of defence was prone to corrupt schemes and illegal revenue generators. At the same time, a significant number of important military infrastructure is in poor condition. The queue to receive state-guaranteed housing for servicemen has 46,000 deserving people waiting in it, and this issue has not been resolved for more than 20 years.
 
MoD asset management needs to take decisive reform steps, and we are convinced that these steps could resolve many problems. In particular, there is a feasible way to close the housing queue and provide homes for the most servicemen just in several years.
 
The second important issue is attracting investment. Currently, public-private partnerships in the field of defence are not legally regulated, and this forbids the attraction of private funds for the development of critical technologies.

We research and study these issues and develop solutions to reform defence resource and asset management.

DEFENCE PROCUREMENT

Procurement is a critical part of the development of defence capabilities, but reform has not yet been completed here.
 
The core team of the MOD Reforms Project office has created a vision and a framework for the new defence procurement system. This model laid the foundation of the recently adopted Law “On Defence Procurement”.
 
What’s next?
 
Our report describes the target model of the defence procurement system and provides a roadmap for the transition to this model. It explains the logic behind the provisions of the new law. It outlines what the reformed system must look like to meet today’s challenges and the expectations of the defence forces and of civil society.
 
The study takes into account Ukrainian and foreign experience and is the first fundamental work on this issue in the history of Ukraine.
 
Today, the team is working on further bylaws and regulations for defence procurement.

DEFENCE INDUSTRY REFORM

Ukraine’s defence capabilities directly rely on Ukraine’s own military-industrial complex. At the moment, the defence industry is going through crisis, reform, and complex transformations. The right government decisions about the future of the military-industrial complex are crucial for the country’s survival. Today Ukraine is facing a real choice of models for the future development of its defence industry.
 
Our agenda:

  • Defining defence industry reform strategies;
  • Making an analysis of Ukroboronprom’s reform as a central component of the process;
  • Analysing legislation and developing recommendations for the adoption of the necessary regulations;
  • Developing solutions aimed at increasing the investment attractiveness of the Ukrainian defence industry, attracting new funds and technologies;
  • Formulating principles for public-private partnership.
THE SECURITY OF THE BLACK-AZOV SEA REGION

Threats from the sea are extremely foreseeable for Ukraine, and the capabilities of Ukraine’s defence forces at sea do not correspond to the level of threat there. The vast majority of the Ukrainian maritime zone is occupied. This issue is attracting increased attention from the government and society, but a clear plan to minimize the threats emanating from the sea has not yet been developed.
 
For several months, the Centre has worked with a number of outstanding maritime security experts to develop a fundamental study that includes a security assessment of the region and suggests a list of specific actions to be taken to respond to identified threats.
 
The report provides a detailed analysis of the region’s security developments in a strategic context. The situation poses a long-standing threat that stretches beyond the region.
 
We propose a scenario generation system as a tool for forecasting further aggressive actions by the Russian Federation and we offer key ideas that can be put into a counter-strategy.
 
Besides Ukraine’s response, which must be innovative and asymmetric, the counter-strategy also envisions greater interaction and coordination with other regional and external players in a joint global effort

THE PATH TO NATO MEMBERSHIP

NATO membership is a strategic goal of Ukraine, affirmed in the Constitution of Ukraine and the National Security Strategy of Ukraine.
 
The National Security Strategy also acknowledges the need for reforming Ukrainian defence forces in line with NATO standards. The majority of Ukrainian servicemen want to serve in a NATO-standard armed force, and only NATO membership will guarantee the country’s long-term security.
 
Finding solutions for achieving this objective is the priority area of our work. We develop roadmaps for the transition to NATO standards and formulate the practical steps for Euro-Atlantic integration.
 
We work with the world’s leading think tanks, with international partners, and with the government and legislators to develop optimum options for achieving these strategic goals. We are convinced that NATO membership is a real possibility, and are committed to contributing what is needed to reach this ultimate goal.
 
Our agenda:

  • Outlining the necessary steps and strategic decisions of Ukraine’s path to Euro-Atlantic integration;
  • Highlighting Ukraine in the NATO-2030 strategy;
  • Expanding on the advantages of Ukraine’s NATO Enhanced Opportunities Partnership (EOP) status;
  • Building bilateral cooperation with NATO countries in the field of defence;
  • Working with NATO countries and the NATO office to pursue Ukraine’s interests;
  • Enabling security and defence reform, the implementation of NATO standards and their adaptation in the defence forces.
SECURITY THREATS


 
We look at the government decision making, policies and reforms in a greater strategic context: enabling Ukraine’s prosperity and welfare of its people, building national defence capabilities, and protecting Ukraine’s national interests.
 
We explore defence sector issues as part of these goals. Threats to Ukraine’s national security have a direct impact on the life of its people, on Ukraine’s sovereignty and development. Although the threats are primarily connected to the war in eastern Ukraine, they are not limited to it. Very palpable threats are emerging in the Black Sea region. Some adversary hybrid operations are implemented daily in the information and cyber spheres, as well as in the economic, energy, diplomatic and legal domains.
 
Ukraine’s priority task is to stabilize its security situation, return its temporarily occupied territories, and secure the grounds for economic growth, attracting investment, and fostering national development. Ukraine’s strategic goal is to become a member of the EU and NATO.
 
How can Ukraine achieve these goals?
 
We provide answers to these questions.

DEFENCE RESOURCES


 
The Ministry of Defence of Ukraine manages an enormous number of assets, such as state-owned enterprises, property, and hundreds of thousands of hectares of land. Many of these resources are not used to increase defence capabilities. Traditionally, managing the assets of the Ministry of defence was prone to corrupt schemes and illegal revenue generators. At the same time, a significant number of important military infrastructure is in poor condition. The queue to receive state-guaranteed housing for servicemen has 46,000 deserving people waiting in it, and this issue has not been resolved for more than 20 years.
 
MoD asset management needs to take decisive reform steps, and we are convinced that these steps could resolve many problems. In particular, there is a feasible way to close the housing queue and provide homes for the most servicemen just in several years.
 
The second important issue is attracting investment. Currently, public-private partnerships in the field of defence are not legally regulated, and this forbids the attraction of private funds for the development of critical technologies.
 
We research and study these issues and develop solutions to reform defence resource and asset management.

DEFENCE PROCUREMENT


 
Procurement is a critical part of the development of defence capabilities, but reform has not yet been completed here.
 
The core team of the MOD Reforms Project office has created a vision and a framework for the new defence procurement system. This model laid the foundation of the recently adopted Law “On Defence Procurement”.
 
What’s next?
 
Our report describes the target model of the defence procurement system and provides a roadmap for the transition to this model. It explains the logic behind the provisions of the new law. It outlines what the reformed system must look like to meet today’s challenges and the expectations of the defence forces and of civil society.
 
The study takes into account Ukrainian and foreign experience and is the first fundamental work on this issue in the history of Ukraine.
 
Today, the team is working on further bylaws and regulations for defence procurement.

DEFENCE INDUSTRY REFORM


 
Ukraine’s defence capabilities directly rely on Ukraine’s own military-industrial complex. At the moment, the defence industry is going through crisis, reform, and complex transformations. The right government decisions about the future of the military-industrial complex are crucial for the country’s survival. Today Ukraine is facing a real choice of models for the future development of its defence industry.
 
Our agenda:

  • Defining defence industry reform strategies;
  • Making an analysis of Ukroboronprom’s reform as a central component of the process;
  • Analysing legislation and developing recommendations for the adoption of the necessary regulations;
  • Developing solutions aimed at increasing the investment attractiveness of the Ukrainian defence industry, attracting new funds and technologies;
  • Formulating principles for public-private partnership.
THE SECURITY OF THE BLACK-AZOV SEA REGION


 
Threats from the sea are extremely foreseeable for Ukraine, and the capabilities of Ukraine’s defence forces at sea do not correspond to the level of threat there. The vast majority of the Ukrainian maritime zone is occupied. This issue is attracting increased attention from the government and society, but a clear plan to minimize the threats emanating from the sea has not yet been developed.
 
For several months, the Centre has worked with a number of outstanding maritime security experts to develop a fundamental study that includes a security assessment of the region and suggests a list of specific actions to be taken to respond to identified threats.
 
The report provides a detailed analysis of the region’s security developments in a strategic context. The situation poses a long-standing threat that stretches beyond the region.
 
We propose a scenario generation system as a tool for forecasting further aggressive actions by the Russian Federation and we offer key ideas that can be put into a counter-strategy.
 
Besides Ukraine’s response, which must be innovative and asymmetric, the counter-strategy also envisions greater interaction and coordination with other regional and external players in a joint global effort

THE PATH TO NATO MEMBERSHIP


 
NATO membership is a strategic goal of Ukraine, affirmed in the Constitution of Ukraine and the National Security Strategy of Ukraine.
 
The National Security Strategy also acknowledges the need for reforming Ukrainian defence forces in line with NATO standards. The majority of Ukrainian servicemen want to serve in a NATO-standard armed force, and only NATO membership will guarantee the country’s long-term security.
 
Finding solutions for achieving this objective is the priority area of our work. We develop roadmaps for the transition to NATO standards and formulate the practical steps for Euro-Atlantic integration.
 
We work with the world’s leading think tanks, with international partners, and with the government and legislators to develop optimum options for achieving these strategic goals. We are convinced that NATO membership is a real possibility, and are committed to contributing what is needed to reach this ultimate goal.
 
Our agenda:

  • Outlining the necessary steps and strategic decisions of Ukraine’s path to Euro-Atlantic integration;
  • Highlighting Ukraine in the NATO-2030 strategy;
  • Expanding on the advantages of Ukraine’s NATO Enhanced Opportunities Partnership (EOP) status;
  • Building bilateral cooperation with NATO countries in the field of defence;
  • Working with NATO countries and the NATO office to pursue Ukraine’s interests;
  • Enabling security and defence reform, the implementation of NATO standards and their adaptation in the defence forces.